Business space industry: No chatting if you just want to see data or ask for materials when looking to buy existing shares.

01

At the turn of the year, many people are on a semi-vacation, but some are especially busy.

In December last year, the optimization of the fifth set of standards for the Science and Technology Innovation Board opened the listing door for commercial space companies. Landspace was the first to be accepted, and leading enterprises such as iSpace, GalaxySpace, and CAS Space quickly followed suit to pursue IPOs. Meanwhile, there was also news that China had submitted an application to the International Telecommunication Union for 203,000 satellite frequency and orbital resources at one time. Experts interpreted this as indicating that the application for satellite frequency and orbital resources has risen to the national strategic level.

On January 22, the status of Landspace's IPO review changed to "Under Inquiry", just 22 days after it was accepted on December 31 last year. Is this the speed of a rocket?

Recently, there has also been continuous news from SpaceX. Musk plans to list the company as early as mid-2026 at a valuation of $1.5 trillion (10 trillion RMB). The "Chinese NVIDIA" has reached a market value of tens of billions. The only short-term mystery in the commercial space industry has become: what will be the market value of the "Chinese SpaceX"?

With the exit channels opened and positive policy and market expectations, in this context, the old shares of star rocket and satellite projects have become a sought-after commodity in the investment circle. It was in this lively trading atmosphere that I got to know Mr. X.

Mr. X has four aerospace projects in hand:

Project A (Rocket): It is a project of the state-owned team, with a pre-investment valuation of 15 billion RMB. It is expected to start the listing process in 2028, and the available quota is 50 million RMB.

Project B (Rocket): The pre-investment valuation is over 16 billion RMB. The old shares are traded at a valuation of 10.6 billion RMB, with a price discount of nearly one-third. The available quota is 20 million RMB. This company is involved in the issue of controlling equity transfer. According to Mr. X, the most likely acquirers are state-owned assets from Hubei or Sichuan. "Once the controlling equity transfer is completed, the listing process will start immediately."

Project C (Rocket): The pre-investment valuation is 10.6 billion RMB. It plans to start the D+ round of financing after the Spring Festival, and the pre-investment valuation will most likely be set between 20 billion and 22 billion RMB at that time. If the news is confirmed, it means that if you invest in this round, your investment will double by the next round.

The vast expanse of the universe is just around the corner. In the materials Mr. X gave me, it was written that Company C "plans to conduct the maiden flight of the reusable liquid launch vehicle 'Hyperbola III' in June 2026, achieving rocket orbit insertion and first-stage recovery. After the successful maiden flight, it will immediately apply for listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. To ensure successful orbit insertion, the company has also prepared two rockets. It is expected that the market value will exceed 100 billion RMB after listing." Oh, just a few days after our communication, this company has updated its progress in IPO counseling.

Project D (Satellite): It is in the pre-IPO round of capital increase, with a pre-investment valuation of 35 billion RMB, and the available quota is 50 million RMB.

The year before last, Company D completed a Series A financing of billions, setting a record for a single-round financing in the domestic commercial space industry. Recently, it has become even more remarkable. I heard that this company has started to interview investors in reverse, and the valuation has skyrocketed from 35 billion RMB to 45 billion RMB. I asked Mr. X about this news, and he told me that the old shares are still transferred at the original price. "If you invest now, it definitely won't be this price."

I can't help but admire Mr. X's extraordinary abilities, but at the same time, I'm also puzzled. Since it's a once-in-a-lifetime historical opportunity, why are people willing to sell their old shares at a discount?

Mr. X explained that the investors from previous rounds have made money and want to use this money to invest in new projects. In addition, some investors, mainly state-owned assets, with the approval of their leaders, "don't want to continue." So, Mr. X obtained some shares through his connections.

02

Similar to the fate of many projects in recent years, the old shares of today's star companies have also gone through a process from being ignored to becoming extremely popular overnight.

In 2022, the commercial space industry was a typical non-consensus track. When Shanxing Capital led the Series A financing of Dongfang Space in 2022, Xu Shi, the founding partner, recalled that "it was a time when the pressure in the commercial space industry was low, and the rocket launches of several enterprises were not successful." As I understand it, the old shares of a commercial rocket enterprise E, which was scheduled to go public, were still sold at a valuation of 8 billion RMB.

In November 2024, I saw someone selling the old shares of Company E in a group. The post-investment valuation of the new round is 19.65 billion RMB, and the transfer price of the old shares is 13 billion RMB, still with a significant discount. Someone sighed with emotion: Even the leading companies in the commercial space industry are selling their old shares. The middleman said that the commercial prospects of the vast expanse of the universe are very good, and the pressure on LPs to exit is understandable. Then he added that the number of satellite launches will increase in the future, and the industry prospects are promising.

However, the so-called "prospects" were not clear at that time. At least, going public was still a long-way-off thing.

On November 24th last year, I received the materials for the old shares of another commercial rocket company F, which spent a lot of space explaining the urgency and necessity of deploying in the commercial space industry from the perspective of geopolitics. It was quite persuasive, and I list it below:

"Elon Musk's SpaceX in the United States has launched more than 10,000 satellites into space and successfully formed the Starlink network, while we have only launched more than 100. If that small country in the east or our own small island really causes trouble, and there are no satellites in the sky to monitor day and night while the other side has Starlink, if you were the leader, wouldn't you be anxious? So, please pay attention to the investment opportunity of the most likely 'guaranteed admission' company for the Science and Technology Innovation Board IPO next year. Among them, Rocket F - with the most launch times in China (over 22 times), the most successful in marketization and commercialization, and orders scheduled until the end of 2026 - is undoubtedly the most ideal and most certain leading target."

Unfortunately, this material didn't catch my attention enough at that time. November 24th was later regarded by many media as the starting point of the explosion of the commercial space sector in this round. On November 25th, the National Space Administration released a three-year action plan and established the "Commercial Space Department" for the first time. In the following month, the prices of 15 concept stocks doubled. On December 26th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued IPO guidelines for rocket enterprises, and the continuous policy reinforcement further ignited the enthusiasm of funds.

The commercial space industry has become extremely popular under the policy dividends and the narrative that strengthens emotional resonance.

Although there is some regret, I'm not overly regretful. People often can't even make money within their cognitive scope, let alone outside it. Since I started writing for Touzhong, I've often sighed that I lack foresight and a sense of conviction. Moreover, having only the knowledge but not the financial resources won't work either.

"Now, these shares are so popular that it's hard to get them. I haven't even got many. Someone said that as long as the internal process is completed, they can invest hundreds of millions. I said I simply can't get that many shares." The shares Mr. X has obtained have been over-subscribed several times. Among the potential buyers, there are state-owned assets, securities companies, FOF funds, and individual investors, such as the bosses of listed companies who have just reduced their shareholdings and have a lot of idle money. Some investors missed the opportunities of Moore and Muxi and can't afford to miss the commercial space industry. They are determined to get these shares but are troubled by the long decision-making process and have been chasing after Mr. X.

Who will ultimately get these shares depends on who makes the payment first. It's better to pay a deposit, which can lock in the quota, but it won't be refunded if you don't invest when the time comes. Among the four projects, Rocket B is the most popular, and the payment deadline is the 23rd of this month.

There is naturally no due diligence, and some projects don't even have project materials. "The key issue now is not how much profit or revenue there is, but whether there are quotas and whether you can invest." With state-owned enterprises dominating the market, direct investment is basically impossible. To invest as an LP in Rocket B, you need to invest at least 20 million RMB. If you don't have 20 million RMB, you need to set up an additional structure.

"If you have 10 million RMB, I can still consider it. If it's just a few million, it's too troublesome to operate." With the market in short supply, Mr. X has become picky.

03

Speaking of Mr. X, he has been in the private equity industry for many years. He had the idea to start his own business about five years ago. Due to the poor market conditions, he couldn't raise funds or make investments. In the past few years, he has mainly been doing business related to listed companies. This is his first time participating in the competition for popular market targets. In his words, when you're on the wave, it doesn't matter how crazy you are, at least you'll have something to brag about in the future.

Buying the old shares of Muxi is regarded by Mr. X as a proud investment. "I was very decisive when investing in GPU chips. When the opportunity came, I just invested without asking about the revenue or data. As expected, it met my expectations after going public."

So far, he has made 30 times his investment.

I asked Mr. X if he expected a market value of tens of billions at that time. Mr. X said that it should be at least tens of billions. At that valuation, the market value would be less than $20 billion in the US stock market. These domestic GPUs are a bit worse than NVIDIA, but not by much.

But Mr. X doesn't invest in these projects just for money. Some friends asked him, now that you've made 30 times your investment and the lock-up period is so long, will the price still be the same by then? Mr. X's reply was that it doesn't matter. He said he would accept it even if the price fell below the issue price. He said that making or losing money happens all the time, and no one can predict the future. Anyway, it's okay to participate in this project.

He attributes this impulse to an old-timer's sentiment - he instinctively gets excited when he sees things like rockets and GPUs, which are symbols of a great nation's strength. But he's not optimistic about humanoid robots, thinking that it might be too early. In his eyes, Wang Xing is talented and capable, but compared with Elon Musk, he still lacks experience and ability. "If I want to invest, I might as well invest directly in Musk's Optimus."

During our conversation, many people called and sent WeChat messages to Mr. X. Some people asked him about the current revenue and if there were any materials for introduction. Mr. X was too lazy to reply to these messages. He hopes that investors will be like him, making the payment the next day after receiving the information. His investment principle is to look at the trend rather than the data. His trading philosophy is that if you can't clarify a project in 10 minutes, you'll never be able to. He's also on the go, traveling on business to raise funds. If no one makes the payment by the last day, he plans to buy the shares himself.

I asked Mr. X what he thought about the correction of the commercial space industry in the secondary market and whether the stock market fluctuations would affect the trading of the old shares of these star companies. Mr. X taught me that people need to have faith. Without faith and without confidence in China, you can't succeed. "I always believe that China can do it, so be a long-term value investor and don't pay attention to short-term fluctuations. The market goes up and down every day, and you can't keep an eye on it. Others making money is their ability."

My conversation with Mr. X ended there. The latest news is that the old shares of Rocket B were snapped up three days ago, and Company D has obtained an additional quota of 100 million RMB.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Touzhongwang". Author: Liu Yanqiu. Republished by 36 Kr with permission.