Question 2026: AI Acceleration, Fasten Your Seatbelts
The technological portrait of 2026 is not monochromatic.
Looking back at the end of 2025, not everything is inseparable from AI. However, artificial intelligence remains the definite direction in 2026, and its real impact will continue to manifest in the coming year.
What kicked off the grand drama of 2026 was undoubtedly Meta's acquisition of AI startup Manus for over $2 billion. This reflects the tech giant's unwavering ambition for AI agents and its eagerness and anxiety for talent in the AI competition, leaving a significant mark in the global technological development history.
How to foresee the technology and artificial intelligence in 2026?
From the foldable iPhone and smarter Siri that the Wall Street Journal is paying attention to, to Altman potentially leaving his CEO position as described by Forbes, and then to the industry pain warned by Wired, the technological portrait of 2026 is not monochromatic.
It features both incremental improvements after "big efforts bring miracles", the catch - up of the chip industry under geopolitical games, and Musk's grand experiments that never stop despite doubts.
On the optimistic side, as an "infinite mind", AI is "landing" in our life scenarios at an unprecedented speed. On the cautious side, in the future woven by algorithms, defining the value of human beings themselves is a question that everyone truly has to face.
This reminds us that while enjoying the acceleration of technology, don't forget to fasten your seat - belt. As The Economist posed a crucial question, the hype and expectations triggered by artificial intelligence are unprecedented, and its real impact remains unclear. Will artificial intelligence bring economic recovery, financial collapse, social backlash, or a combination of the three?
Forecasting the future is to prepare for it. What are your expectations for 2026?
1
Will a smarter iPhone arrive?
The Wall Street Journal made its first technology prediction about Apple's Siri. In June this year, Craig Federighi, Apple's senior vice - president of software engineering, told them that the company was rebuilding Siri based on a new underlying architecture to enhance its artificial intelligence capabilities.
Half a year later, an old - timer stepped down, and Amar Subramanian, who was in charge of Google's Gemini chatbot project and later joined Microsoft, joined Apple as the vice - president of artificial intelligence. Additionally, Apple is also testing a version of Google's Gemini to power the new - generation Siri.
The Wall Street Journal's prediction for 2026 also includes Apple's first foldable phone. This product is expected to be released in the autumn of 2026 along with the iPhone 18 series. It will feature a book - style design, be equipped with multiple cameras, use Touch ID instead of Face ID, and is expected to be priced over $2,000. So, save your money beforehand.
2
Will Sam Altman step down as OpenAI's CEO?
Forbes boldly speculated that Altman is no longer the best candidate to lead the company towards becoming a listed one.
Forbes even predicted how Altman would step down: Different from the dramatic event in November 2023 when the OpenAI board suddenly fired Altman and shocked the world, this personnel change will be carefully planned. It will be portrayed as Altman's personal decision, and he will announce the news according to his own will.
Forbes' reasons for the prediction include that Google's Gemini is eroding ChatGPT's market, and its competitor Anthropic plans to go public as early as 2026, which will put more pressure on OpenAI to go public. Moreover, Altman announced that OpenAI had hired Instacart CEO Fidji Simo as the "application CEO". Therefore, Fidji Simo might be OpenAI's next CEO.
Forbes specifically pointed out that Sam Altman won't fade out of the public eye. He will still launch many projects in fields such as chips, data centers, space, and brain - computer interfaces in the coming years.
3
Is the wave of large - model companies going public approaching?
This is a story that has already begun. Zhipu and MiniMax have started their listing process on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. They are the first two to stand out among the "Six Little Tigers" of domestic large AI models. One focuses on the B - end market with a gross profit margin as high as 50%, and its customers are mainly large government agencies and enterprises. The other breaks through in the C - end market, with over 70% of its revenue coming from overseas.
The wave of large - model companies going public is essentially because they have huge capital needs and have to enter the public market to raise more equity and debt financing.
Forbes believes that the public listing of Anthropic, valued at $300 billion, is one of the most anticipated IPOs in 2026. In 2025, Anthropic's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) increased from $1 billion to $9 billion. Meanwhile, OpenAI's ARR will grow from $6 billion to $20 billion.
4
Will AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) fall out of fashion?
In the past, AGI was described as something that surpasses human - level capabilities and can perform perfectly in all tasks. However, nowadays, people no longer expect such a complete disruption but view artificial intelligence with a more pragmatic perspective.
On the model side, large models such as GPT - 5 and Gemini 3 have made incremental improvements compared to their predecessors. Although agents show great potential, they still lack sufficient capabilities and reliability for widespread application. The basic models in fields such as robotics and biology are not yet mature for practical use.
So, Forbes believes that a consensus is gradually forming in the AI ecosystem: Super AI may not be just around the corner - more importantly, it may not be that crucial as this technology is already very powerful. Before the arrival of AGI, with AI reshaping various industries and organizations, trillions of dollars in value - creation opportunities are already within reach.
Meanwhile, The Economist believes that Silicon Valley's venture capitalists, entrepreneurs, and tech giants are all focused on one thing: how to accelerate the adoption of AI by enterprises. If enterprises can integrate AI into their operations and improve productivity, they can reap huge profits. Therefore, a key indicator to watch in 2026 will be the speed of formal AI adoption and the success of these efforts.
The discussion about AGI will not completely disappear in 2026, but it will become less popular.
5
What is the most widespread "body" for AI?
2026 will be a year of commercial explosion for the integration of "hardware + AI". AI toys will start selling well, there will be a fierce competition among AI glasses, and humanoid robot display competitions... All kinds of intelligent products are growing driven by AI, all aiming to find a "body" for AI - to liberate AI from screens and dialog boxes and apply it to specific real - life scenarios.
Doubao AI glasses have just been unveiled, and Google's glasses equipped with Gemini are also about to hit the market. These are the heavy - hitters in the AI glasses industry in 2026. And how will Meta, which acquired Manus, deploy its agent capabilities in AI glasses?
In the field of humanoid robots, the Wall Street Journal believes that two American humanoid robots, Neo and Memo, are both planning to start home tests. By collecting real - world data, they will improve the robots to make them better at household chores such as folding clothes and emptying the dishwasher.
Undoubtedly, the battle at the forefront of large models in 2026 will be about applications in the physical world. However, Wired reminds us that being always online means being always at risk. Since many recordable wearable devices will bring problems such as privacy or big - data leakage, many tech companies will take necessary restrictions and security measures in 2026.
6
Will the AI bubble burst?
The explosion of DeepSeek at the beginning of 2025 triggered a panic in the chip market. So, what unexpected things will happen in 2026?
Wired magazine believes that the US AI industry may experience a more significant and short - lived decline in 2026. After a period of rapid growth, leading AI companies may need to make adjustments, increase investment in successful projects, and cut those that are underperforming.
For example, OpenAI may face large - scale layoffs. Its employee count has increased five - fold in the past two years to about 4,500 people. It is in direct competition with Google and other rivals and has extended its reach to many new fields such as chips. Does it still have the best - qualified people in the most suitable positions?
Like Forbes' judgment, Wired believes that a large number of AI companies will go public in 2026, and many of them will cash out when their valuations reach their peaks. Companies that miss the "window period" may join the wave of layoffs.
The Economist also mentioned that if the adoption of AI accelerates, investors will continue to believe that their generous investments and patience will ultimately bring substantial returns. However, any sign that AI benefits are delayed or even unachievable may lead to a significant shrinkage in valuations.
History has proven that even practical technologies such as railways and the Internet are often accompanied by financial booms. But if the AI hype fades, trillions of dollars in wealth of American households may vanish.
7
Will there be a wave of unemployment in the AI field?
Artificial intelligence may trigger a new wave of unemployment in 2026. This is the judgment recently made by "the father of artificial intelligence", Geoffrey Hinton, who expressed his concerns because the development of AI is faster than he expected, especially in terms of reasoning and deceiving humans.
AI is indeed transforming work and the workplace. Forbes quoted the judgments of ten senior executives from different companies on the employment market. They generally believe that in the coming year, the role of AI will be more about enhancement and humanization rather than replacing humans.
Moreover, The Economist's prediction states that the concern about a "wave of unemployment" is natural. Companies that adopt new technologies faster will benefit from higher demand and thus hire more employees; as some jobs become obsolete, new jobs will emerge. Of course, the real impact remains unclear.
There is no definite answer. Ultimately, The Economist believes that: Will artificial intelligence bring economic recovery, financial collapse, social backlash, or a combination of the three? The world will start to find the answer in 2026.
8
Will the gap between Chinese and American AI chips narrow?
On January 2, 2026, BRIGHTCHIP TECHNOLOGY officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Previously, Moore Threads and Muxi Semiconductor, two of the "Four Little Dragons" of Chinese GPUs, had already listed on the STAR Market. Under these series of measures, Forbes believes that the confidence in Chinese AI chips is growing.
Although NVIDIA and TSMC have deep technological accumulations and complex systems in the chip field, which cannot be replicated overnight, Forbes still admits that China has many excellent engineers, rich resources, and strong national support for this cause.
So, it believes that in 2026, China's domestic chip industry will make tangible and meaningful progress in narrowing the gap with the United States in the field of AI hardware, and "the signs of embarking on an efficient development path and steadily moving towards the forefront of AI chip manufacturing will be obvious".
Moreover, Forbes believes that in the long run, the rise of Chinese AI chips will be a bad outcome for NVIDIA and the United States. Another trend starting in 2026 is that more and more companies are starting to plan to design their own AI chips, optimized for specific applications.
9
Will self - driving cars reduce accidents?
Self - driving taxis are still what both Wired and the Wall Street Journal are looking forward to and are expected to expand significantly in 2026.
In the past year, Waymo under Alphabet, Amazon's Zoox, and Tesla's Robotaxi have all developed rapidly and announced their plans to expand in the US market in the coming year. For example, Waymo will expand to 25 cities and provide over 1 million service trips, far more than the current hundreds of thousands.
Meanwhile, they also mentioned the risky side of the expansion plan. The more cities they expand to, the more negative news will emerge if the cars are involved in accidents or the service is suspended across the city. Wired believes that self - driving taxis are rarely the direct cause of accidents, and by 2026, operators will be motivated to take safety measures to avoid accidents.
10
Never go against Musk?
SpaceX going public, the release of the Grok 5 model, the larger - scale commercialization of Robotaxi, and the countdown to the mass production of the humanoid robot Optimus... Many major events will happen to the world's richest man, Musk, in 2026, and many mysteries remain to be solved.
"About 80% of Tesla's value will come from Optimus," Musk once said. In the predictions of mainstream US media for 2026, there is no sign of Tesla or Optimus because Musk has been promising the mass production of humanoid robots for a long time. Now it is clear that Tesla will officially release Optimus V3 in the first quarter of 2026. Whether a production line with an annual output of 1 million units can be launched by the end of the year is also a sign for judging the humanoid robot industry.
A group of Chinese players such as XPeng Motors, Ubtech Robotics, and Unitree Robotics have all revealed their plans in advance and are likely to take the lead over Tesla.
If SpaceX goes public as scheduled in 2026, it means that the largest - scale IPO in history will occur. The currently disclosed financing amount is expected to far exceed $30 billion, with the goal of achieving a valuation of $1.5 trillion. In 2025, SpaceX's expected revenue will reach about $15 billion, and in 2026, it will increase to between $22 billion and $24 billion, with most of the sales coming from the Starlink project.
In 2026, Musk will still be the focus among global entrepreneurs.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Bluehole Business" (ID: value_creation), author: Zhao Weiwei, published by 36Kr with authorization.