It's easy for "solid-state batteries" to go public, but it's much more difficult for them to be used in vehicles.

After the "first domestic GPU stock" and the "second domestic GPU stock" ignited the investment market, the "first stock" in another hot track, solid-state batteries, is also on the way.

On December 11th, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that Weilan New Energy signed a listing counseling agreement with CITIC Construction Investment, officially kicking off its IPO journey on the A-share market.

This news is like a Tsar Bomba that detonated the market's enthusiasm. After all, on the first day of listing, investors who won a lottery for Moore Threads shares saw a floating profit of nearly 300,000 yuan, and those who won a lottery for Muxi Co., Ltd. shares saw a floating profit approaching 400,000 yuan. With such astonishing returns, no one can resist going crazy.

Valued at 18.5 billion yuan and backed by industry giants such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and NIO, Weilan New Energy seems to enter the market fully equipped. Everyone believes that once it goes public, the scenario of "winning a lottery = winning a fortune" will repeat itself.

With the market and public sentiment providing sufficient emotional support for its bid to become the first solid-state battery stock, is Weilan New Energy ready in terms of its core "product"?

The Confidence of the "First Stock"

Since Weilan New Energy dares to strive for the title of the "first solid-state battery stock," "solid-state batteries" are undoubtedly its source of confidence.

Digging deeper into this confidence, you'll find that Weilan has an incredibly strong background:

It originated from the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, with Academician Chen Liquan, known as the "Father of Chinese Lithium Batteries," at the helm. Behind it stands an investment group that includes industry heavyweights such as Huawei, Xiaomi, Geely, and NIO.

Its flagship product, the in-situ solidified semi-solid-state battery, is among the top-tier products in the current semi-solid-state battery market.

What is "in-situ solidification"? It can be metaphorically explained through a common "grouting" experiment.

A traditional liquid lithium battery is like a glass filled with water, where the electrolyte is fluid. Once damaged, it is prone to leakage and fire.

In contrast, a all-solid-state battery is like a stack of bricks. While it is safe, as you've probably seen, when bricks are stacked together, there are large gaps between them. As a result, ions have difficulty moving.

Weilan's brilliance lies in first pouring "paste" (liquid monomers) into the gaps between the "stones" (solid electrodes) and then using in-situ solidification technology to make it sticky and dry, ultimately forming a semi-solid mixture.

This allows the battery to retain the strength (safety) of the stones while maintaining close contact like a liquid (enabling fast conductivity).

The main buyer of this "grouting battery" is the well-known NIO.

On December 17, 2023, NIO CEO Li Bin personally hosted a live stream. He drove a NIO ET7 equipped with a Weilan 150 kWh battery pack from Shanghai to test its range.

At that time, the temperature in Shanghai dropped to minus 2 degrees Celsius. With the air conditioner on, Li Bin drove south for 14 hours and 1 minute. Finally, when the battery level was at 3%, he arrived in Xiamen, Fujian, with a measured driving distance of 1,044 kilometers.

This test not only verified the Weilan semi-solid-state battery's ability to travel 1,000 kilometers on a single charge but also made this battery pack with an energy density of up to 360 Wh/kg the "ceiling" of the energy density for mass-produced domestic passenger cars in the media's eyes.

If this technology is so powerful, capable of traveling 1,000 kilometers and being mass-produced, why aren't these cars everywhere on the streets? Why aren't other automakers rushing to buy them?

Because this "miracle battery" is not only extremely expensive but also very difficult to manage.

Firstly, there's the "sky-high cost." To achieve an ultra-high energy density of 360 Wh/kg, Weilan's battery uses not only semi-solid electrolytes but also expensive materials such as high-nickel cathodes and silicon-carbon anodes.

Although the official price has not been announced, NIO President Qin Lihong once half-jokingly revealed that the cost of this 150 kWh battery pack is "equivalent to a NIO ET5." That is to say, this single battery may cost around 300,000 yuan.

Secondly, there's the nightmare of "mass production yield." "In-situ solidification" sounds simple, but in industrial production, it's extremely difficult to ensure that the grouting level and solidification effect are exactly the same in each of the hundreds of millions of battery cells.

If the yield rate cannot be improved, the cost cannot be reduced. This is why, even though it was launched as early as 2021, it wasn't until 2024 that large-scale deliveries were barely possible.

Finally, there's the "limitation of customization." Currently, this battery is almost "tailor-made" for NIO. It needs to be perfectly compatible with NIO's battery swapping system, with specific dimensions, interfaces, and thermal management systems.

If other automakers want to use it, they either have to redesign the chassis to accommodate the battery or ask Weilan to develop a new one. Given the high cost, most automakers will definitely choose the more mature and cheaper batteries from CATL.

The most fatal thing is that despite all these efforts, it's still not the "ultimate solution."

For "solid-state battery purists," semi-solid-state batteries, even in-situ solidified semi-solid-state batteries, are essentially an "upgraded version" rather than the "ultimate version" of liquid batteries.

The "liquid content" in the battery is the root cause of the problem.

As long as there's even a drop of liquid electrolyte in the battery, the risk of thermal runaway cannot be completely eliminated at the physical level. Even if semi-solid-state batteries are safer than ordinary batteries, there's still a theoretical possibility of combustion.

In the industry context, semi-solid-state batteries are more like a crutch that can help companies take the first few hundred meters of the commercialization journey. However, what truly matters for NIO is the "all-solid-state" battery that eliminates liquids.

The all-solid-state battery, which can completely eliminate range anxiety and the fear of spontaneous combustion associated with electric vehicles, is widely regarded as the "Holy Grail" of the new energy era. Whoever can be the first to obtain this Holy Grail will gain control over the future of the automotive industry and even the energy system.

This race for the Holy Grail is divided into three routes and has become a strategic tool for competition among major countries.

The Holy Grail War

CATL Chairman Zeng Yuqun once poured cold water on the industry, saying that if the maturity of solid-state batteries is rated on a scale of 1 to 9, with 1 being the initial stage and 9 being large-scale mass production, the current average level of the entire industry is at most 4.

Why is it so difficult to manufacture all-solid-state batteries? Simply put, there are three major challenges:

Firstly, the "handshake" is too difficult. There can't be any liquid in all-solid-state batteries. When solids are in contact, it's like two hard stones being placed together, with air gaps at the contact surface, making it impossible for ions to pass through.

Secondly, the materials are too "fragile." Solid electrolytes have extremely strict environmental requirements. Some production workshops need to be as dry as the Sahara Desert, while others need to be as vacuum and dust-free as in space.

Finally, it's a "money pit." The material cost is several times that of liquid batteries, and the current production cost is too high to be accessible to the general public.

In order to produce solid-state batteries with a maturity level of 9, the global scientific research community has split into three distinct "schools," each betting on who can reach the finish line first.

Japan, led by Toyota, is taking a "do-or-die" sulfide route.

Sulfide electrolytes have the highest ionic conductivity, the fastest performance, and the strongest theoretical capabilities. However, once they come into contact with water vapor in the air, they not only lose their effectiveness but also produce highly toxic hydrogen sulfide gas.

Japan's approach is a typical "All-Japan" style gamble. Japanese consortiums led by Toyota started planning more than a decade ago. Toyota alone holds over 1,300 solid-state battery patents, attempting to build a perfect patent barrier.

To overcome the challenges of the "fragile" sulfide, the Japanese government didn't let companies fight alone. Instead, NEDO (New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization) took the lead in setting up a green innovation fund worth up to 2 trillion yen (equivalent to more than 90 billion yuan), with a special subsidy of 350 billion yen specifically for batteries.

Driven by national will, Toyota, Nissan, and Honda have formed an alliance, joining forces with the oil giant "Idemitsu" to build an expensive sulfide electrolyte factory in Chiba Prefecture.

They're betting that if they can overcome the challenges of toxic gas and strict processes, the batteries they produce will outperform the world in terms of performance.

Across the ocean, the United States has chosen a "capital frenzy" route - the polymer/mixed route.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) not only provided billions of dollars in subsidies through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) but also supported a number of star unicorns, such as QuantumScape invested by Volkswagen and Solid Power endorsed by BMW and Ford. These companies have diverse technical routes, some focusing on oxide separators and others on polymers, developing freely based on their capabilities.

However, this route also has a major drawback - it's "sensitive to cold." Many polymer batteries are almost useless at room temperature and need to be heated to above 60°C to function.

Imagine having to "warm up" the battery before driving in winter. This awkward application scenario has put the United States at a disadvantage in the competition in the passenger car market.

In contrast, Chinese companies are taking a more "flexible" approach, mainly choosing the oxide/composite route, which is a "moderate and practical" path.

Although oxides are as hard as ceramics and have lower conductivity than sulfides, they are stable, not afraid of air or water, and can even be produced directly in the atmosphere. This is also Weilan's choice.

Although the "oxide/composite" route has lower theoretical performance than the sulfide route, it has a significant advantage: it's not picky about equipment.

Japan's sulfide route requires building a brand-new and expensive production line from scratch, while the oxide route can be compatible with 70% - 80% of the existing liquid lithium battery production equipment.

Considering that China already accounts for more than 70% of the global lithium battery production capacity, this "equipment reuse" means that China can switch from liquid to solid production capacity at a very low cost and at a very fast pace.

This is the confidence behind Weilan New Energy's claim of "mass production in 2027." However, compared to Weilan's optimism, the reality may be harsher.

The Game of Words

Although Weilan's route seems to have a faster mass production progress, it doesn't mean that we'll be able to drive new energy vehicles with all-solid-state batteries soon because physics doesn't change due to national will.

Whether it's Japan's sulfide, the United States' polymer, or China's oxide, the three core "obstacles" in front of all-solid-state batteries - difficult "handshake" (interface impedance), being too "fragile" (environmental requirements), and high cost - currently, no company in the world has found a perfect solution to balance all three.

On the other hand, "achieving mass production" and "large-scale installation in vehicles" are two completely different concepts. Moving these batteries from the temperature and humidity-controlled laboratories and factories to a car that needs to run for more than a decade in extreme heat, cold, and bumpy conditions is a long and difficult journey.

For example, there's the issue of consistency: It's easy to produce one perfect solid-state battery, but it's very difficult to produce one million identical ones. Another example is the integration issue: Will the "hard-to-hard" structure of solid-state batteries develop cracks and cause poor contact under the long-term vibration and thermal expansion and contraction of a car?

These "last-mile" engineering challenges often take more time than breakthroughs in scientific principles.

Moreover, is the all-solid-state battery really the only "ultimate solution"? When we look at the global situation, we'll find that the attitudes of different countries are quite ambiguous.

Japan started the earliest, but even Toyota, which holds the most solid-state battery patents, has been distracted by hydrogen energy due to the long delay in commercialization.

In the United States, the birthplace of solid-state batteries, Tesla, the leader in the electric vehicle industry, seems rather "nonchalant." Elon Musk is still fully committed to the cylindrical liquid lithium battery system centered around the 4680 battery.

Tesla's calmness is because its cylindrical batteries have proven that the potential of