Grid overload warning sounds: New energy installed capacity increases by another 200 million kilowatts. How far is the road to becoming an energy powerhouse?

The target for new energy installations has been rising year after year, and "red zones" have been frequently emerging in the power grid. How far is China from becoming an energy - powerful country on the path from scale expansion to system coordination?

The National Energy Work Conference has just set a target of adding 200 million kilowatts of new - energy installations in 2026. However, while the installation volume has remained at a high level for four consecutive years, a silent crisis is spreading in local power grids.

From the western deserts to the eastern coasts, China's new - energy development has quietly entered the second half: it is a foregone conclusion that China leads in scale, but deep - seated bottlenecks such as technological autonomy, system coordination ability, and market mechanism construction are beginning to surface. The standard for an energy - powerful country is evolving from the single dimension of "the world's largest installation volume" to a multi - dimensional system featuring full - industrial - chain autonomy, intelligent and efficient systems, and strong security and resilience.

The "Red Zones" and "Islands" Behind the Installation Volume

In 2025, the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power in rural Shandong exceeded 50.2 million kilowatts, ranking first in the country. However, behind the glorious installation data, 53 out of the 136 counties in the province have been classified as "red zones".

This means that the local power grid can no longer accommodate more photovoltaic power generation. At noon when the sunlight is the most abundant, tens of thousands of rooftop photovoltaic panels generate electricity simultaneously, and a large amount of surplus power flows back into the grid, posing risks of equipment overload and voltage limit violations.

Across the country, the problem similar to Shandong's "red zones" is not an isolated case. More than 150 regions are unable to connect new distributed photovoltaic projects due to the insufficient carrying capacity of the distribution network. While the Energy Work Conference still emphasizes the target of adding 200 million kilowatts of wind and photovoltaic installations, the power grid's consumption capacity has become a substantial bottleneck.

To address this challenge, pilot areas are conducting experiments. In the Yellow River Delta Agricultural High - tech Zone in Dongying, an integrated service station for electric agricultural machinery with functions of wind - solar power generation, energy storage, charging, battery swapping, and inspection is in operation. By combining energy - storage equipment with charging piles and battery - swapping facilities, photovoltaic power no longer flows unidirectionally into the grid but realizes a cycle of local storage and consumption.

In the "Happy Canteen" of Yangmiao Community, the 20 - kilowatt photovoltaic panels on the roof not only provide power for the canteen's daytime operation but also reduce the monthly electricity bill of more than 3,000 yuan by at least 30%. This "local consumption" model provides new ideas for distributed energy.

Technological Autonomy: The Crucial Leap from a "Big Country" to a "Powerful Country"

Leading the world in installation scale is just the first step. Technological autonomy is the qualitative change mark from an energy - big country to an energy - powerful country.

In the field of nuclear power, China has made breakthrough progress. On December 12, 2025, the cold - functional test of Unit 3 of the Xudapu Nuclear Power Plant in Liaoning was completed. This test marks the full transition of the unit from installation to commissioning, laying the foundation for its commercial operation in 2027.

Equally remarkable is the world's first "Linglong One" reactor, which successfully completed the cold - functional test on October 16, 2025. As the world's first land - based commercial modular small reactor to pass the safety review of the International Atomic Energy Agency, this is a major achievement of China's independent innovation in nuclear power.

The significance of these breakthroughs lies not only in energy production but also in the comprehensive leap in high - end equipment manufacturing and complex project management capabilities, providing solid support for achieving the goal of self - reliance and self - improvement in energy technology.

The hydrogen energy industry chain is also accelerating its autonomy process. In 2024, China's hydrogen production and consumption scale exceeded 36.5 million tons, ranking first in the world. More importantly, China accounts for more than 50% of the global renewable - energy - based hydrogen production capacity, becoming a leader in this emerging field.

From the mass production of 70MPa Type IV hydrogen - storage bottles, to the offline of a 5 - ton - per - day hydrogen liquefaction system, and then to the completion of the whole - machine test of a megawatt - class pure - hydrogen gas turbine, the full - chain technology system for hydrogen energy "production, storage, transportation, and utilization" is gradually taking shape in China.

In the field of the integration of "artificial intelligence + energy", the National Energy Administration has launched pilot projects, promoting the in - depth combination of artificial intelligence technology and energy scenarios through the "challenge - based innovation" mechanism. These pilot projects will explore AI - enabled models in fields ranging from power - system dispatching section control to intelligent decision - making in coal - mine exploitation.

The Dilemma of Coordination: Who Bears the System Cost?

While technological breakthroughs in individual fields are constantly emerging, the coordination problem of the energy system is becoming increasingly prominent. Energy transition is a complex systematic project involving multiple parties such as the government, enterprises, power grids, and users.

In the transformation practices of traditional energy enterprises such as the Yumen Oilfield and the Tarim Oilfield, the problem of inconsistent technical standards has emerged. Oil and gas exploitation and new - energy power generation have their own standard systems, resulting in repeated adjustments during cross - field cooperation.

There is also a mismatch between the transformation motivation and the assessment system within enterprises. Currently, the assessment of oil and gas enterprises still focuses on oil and gas production, and the new - energy business has not yet formed core evaluation indicators, which affects the enthusiasm of enterprises for transformation and upgrading.

The imperfect market mechanism is also restricting the depth of energy transition. In 2024, the nationwide market - based trading of electricity exceeded 6 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time. However, for distributed photovoltaic power to truly participate in market trading, it still faces challenges such as subsidy reduction and imperfect investment and financing mechanisms.

Du Xiangwan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, pointed out that the national policy in 2025 marked that "wind and solar power are fully incorporated into market trading", and China's power transformation is entering a complex new stage of resource allocation through price signals. This means that new - energy power needs to find its optimal value in the market as a commodity.

The Road Ahead: From Scale Leadership to System Breakthrough

From the "red - zone" warnings in Shandong to the technological breakthrough of "Linglong One", and then to the development of the full hydrogen - energy industry chain, China's new - energy industry has passed the stage of simply pursuing installation scale.

At the national level, plans have been made. The "Administrative Measures for Special Central Budgetary Investment in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission clearly states that it will support the overall energy - conservation and carbon - reduction transformation with industrial parks and industrial clusters as carriers.

The Development and Planning Department of the National Energy Administration has also clearly stated that during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, energy development will adhere to the systematic concept, promote the coordinated transformation of energy production and consumption, strengthen the clean and efficient utilization of fossil energy, and implement renewable - energy substitution actions in key areas.

Zhang Yongping, the director of the Clean Power Project of the Energy Foundation, pointed out that if the electricity generated on one's own rooftop cannot be fully consumed and needs to be sold to surrounding villages and towns in need, a perfect market and trading mechanism is required for guarantee. Currently, with the reduction of subsidies for distributed photovoltaic power, a perfect investment and financing mechanism is also needed for continuous investment.

The "wind - solar - hydrogen - storage" offshore smart energy island demonstration project jointly planned by China and France in Dongtai, Jiangsu, and the exploration of green - energy low - carbon development and standard mutual recognition carried out with German institutions all reflect China's openness and international cooperation thinking in energy transition.

The number of rooftop photovoltaic panels in rural Shandong is still increasing, but more and more county - level power grids have issued red warnings. Meanwhile, in the coastal areas, the "Linglong One" small reactor has completed the cold - state test, adding a new milestone to China's independent innovation in nuclear power.

From the Hexi Corridor to the Yellow River Delta Agricultural High - tech Zone, a coordinated network of the energy system is taking shape. The pilot list of "artificial intelligence + energy" by the National Energy Administration is on the way.

A real energy - powerful country does not lie in leading in single indicators but in whether the system can be coordinated efficiently, the technology can be independently controllable, and the market can operate in a healthy manner. Perhaps this is the profound meaning of the "artificial intelligence + energy" integration pilot proposed by the National Energy Work Conference.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Foreseeing Energy". Author: Zhao Jianan. Republished by 36Kr with permission.