Musk may really think that building cars is no longer interesting.

As expected, Musk's one - trillion - dollar compensation plan has been passed.

At the Tesla shareholders' meeting, more than 75% of Tesla's shareholders approved Musk's one - trillion - dollar compensation plan.

When the voting results were announced, there was a burst of enthusiastic cheers at the scene, and the shareholders shouted Musk's name.

For the shareholders, he is the soul of Tesla.

Optimus

What does one trillion dollars mean?

Xiangpiaopiao's annual sales can circle the Earth 3 times, while Musk's stack of dollars, if laid flat, could circle it 40 times.

Of course, the shareholders aren't stupid. They've set two seemingly impossible goals for this sky - high compensation, namely Tesla's market value and operational indicators.

To motivate Musk not to quit halfway, they've split the two goals into 12 milestones. For each milestone achieved in market value and operations, he'll receive a portion of equivalent shares, just like leveling up in a game.

Key milestones of Musk's sky - high compensation

Let's first look at the market value. Currently, Tesla's market value is about 1.5 trillion dollars. In the early stages, each increase of 500 billion dollars in market value is a milestone. For the last two milestones, this increase requirement will be raised from 500 billion to 1 trillion dollars.

The operational indicators aren't linear, and it doesn't matter which one is completed first.

There are relatively easy goals such as cumulative delivery of 20 million Tesla cars (currently, Tesla's cumulative delivery has exceeded 8 million) and having 10 million active FSD subscribers.

There are also extremely challenging goals like achieving an annual EBITDA (adjusted profit) of 400 billion dollars (four times that of Apple).

If Musk can achieve all the goals, Tesla's market value will reach an astonishing 8.5 trillion dollars, and he'll receive 423.7 million Tesla shares. Adding his original 13% stake, he'll hold 25% of Tesla.

That's what it means to be richer than a country. Musk has truly become Iron Man.

However, these two major goals and 24 milestones are extremely difficult for Tesla at present.

Take the simplest goal of delivery volume. Since last year, affected by Musk's "civil service exam - related" remarks and political statements, Tesla's delivery volume has been declining.

Tesla's delivery volume

Although Musk later said he'd focus on Tesla again, the company is still "paying off the debt" for his actions. In the first quarter, sales decreased by 13% year - on - year, and in the second quarter, by 13.5%.

Fortunately, a new model (the super - basic version Portal) was launched in the third quarter. Coupled with the pressure of subsidy reduction, there was a wave of car - buying enthusiasm in the US. Otherwise, it's hard to say what the third - quarter situation would have been.

But considering the situation in the first two quarters, it's estimated that Tesla's total sales this year won't be very good...

Tesla's operating performance

So, now we understand the situation Musk is facing.

The main models, Model 3 and Model Y, haven't had major updates for years, and there's no news about the rumored affordable models, Model 2/Q.

If this continues, not only Chinese car companies but also foreign brands like General Motors, Ford, and Hyundai will be able to catch up.

In addition, the Cybertruck and Semi have a narrow audience. Their application only in the US can't support large - scale production.

Semi truck

Tesla can't make further progress just by selling cars.

Therefore, Tesla must find new growth points, and this is also the core of Musk's speech at this shareholders' meeting:

"Tesla aims to transform from a car company into a technology company centered around AI and robotics."

After watching the whole meeting, it seems to me like a meeting full of empty promises. Let's analyze it one by one.

First, it's the same old story about various models and FSD.

Tesla models

As before, Tesla imagines that overnight, with a push of a new intelligent driving version, all the cars on the road can achieve autonomous driving.

So, Tesla must get as many people as possible to drive Tesla cars first.

Their solution is to reduce costs and prices through large - scale production.

Musk said they hope to increase production to 2.6 - 2.7 million vehicles by the end of 2026, reach 4 million in 2027, and 5 million in 2028.

But last year's production and sales were only a little over 1.7 million. Considering Tesla's almost balanced production and sales, it's equivalent to setting a goal of a 50% increase in sales next year.

Musk described it as "ambitious," but it's hard to say if it can be achieved.

Another uncertain factor is the Roadster 2, which car enthusiasts are eagerly looking forward to. When answering shareholders' questions, Musk half - jokingly said they plan to unveil it on April 1st next year and start production 12 - 18 months later.

Regardless of whether the Roadster 2 is successful or not, Musk believes it will be the most exciting moment of his life.

It seems that the Roadster 2 is taking shape. Let's look forward to it on April Fool's Day next year.

Prototype of Roadster 2

Regarding FSD, Musk mentioned the recently pushed version 14.1.

Based on the experiences of foreign car owners, it's speculated that version 14.1 has language - understanding capabilities. In an underground garage where GPS doesn't work, FSD found the exit according to text signs.

In addition to text - recognition capabilities, FSD also performs unexpectedly well in some daily scenarios.

For example, at the McDonald's drive - thru, FSD can accurately stop at the ordering window and continue to the pick - up window after the owner has finished communicating with the waiter.

Currently, it's speculated that FSD may have voice - recognition capabilities. If so, it's indeed a significant improvement.

With such obvious progress, when Musk said on that day that FSD 14.3 would allow people to sleep on the road, it became more believable.

In China, FSD is expected to be fully approved between February and March next year. If version 14.1 can be used in China, we'll definitely test it and show the results to everyone.

However, the real problem FSD faces is the sales model.

In China, FSD is sold at a one - time purchase price of 64,000 yuan, and it's still a semi - finished product. Outside the US, it's a subscription - based system at $99 per month.

Even though Tesla has many titles and the glorious halo of being a leader in new energy, it can't solve the consumer psychology problem:

I've already bought the ownership of the car, and the hardware has the necessary capabilities. Why do I still have to pay you?

This psychology is also reflected in the financial reports. For years, FSD has only accounted for about 1% of Tesla's sales revenue. The path of paid intelligent driving hasn't been successful so far.

FSD may play a greater role in Robotaxi.

Tesla showed a clip at the shareholders' meeting, in which their CyberCab was being produced on the assembly line.

CyberCab assembly line

Musk also revealed that it will go into mass production in April next year. Since its manufacturing system is more similar to consumer electronics (without steering columns, pedals, etc.), it can be produced at a rate of one vehicle every 10 seconds (currently, it takes about 40 seconds to produce a Tesla car).

Currently, Google's Waymo has established a successful business model for Robotaxi. Let's see if Tesla can be the second to succeed.

Next, it's the humanoid robot Optimus, which received the most attention at the press conference.

In Musk's vision, in the future, robots will not only enter everyone's lives but also replace humans in work, just like in science - fiction movies.

By then, the demand for robots won't be in the tens of millions but will be measured in hundreds of millions or even billions. The ultimate goal is to eliminate poverty.

I can't take it anymore. This speech makes me feel like I'm about to fly...

Let's get back to reality. When Optimus' annual production reaches 1 million units, the cost will drop to $20,000 per unit. Comparing it with Unitree, Tesla does have some competitiveness.

However, unlike the IRON released by XPeng a few days ago and Unitree's H1, Optimus still hasn't clearly defined its use cases. We'll have to wait until the Optimus V3 version comes out next year to see.

Optimus

Finally, after large - scale production of cars and robots, a huge amount of batteries and chips will be needed.

Musk also revealed some of their plans.

Tesla has experienced a battery shortage before. The batteries from Panasonic and LG weren't enough for them. So, after that experience, Tesla set up its own battery production line.

Now, there may be a similar problem in chip manufacturing.

The AI5 chip currently being developed by Tesla uses TSMC's 3nm process, with a yield rate of only 70%, which isn't very high.

So, Musk didn't hesitate. At the conference, he directly said that Tesla may cooperate with Intel or even build its own chip factory with a monthly production of 100,000 wafers.

I don't know how TSMC feels, but the shareholders are happy.

Above is the general content of this Tesla shareholders' meeting. It's full of empty promises.

Whether it's the humanoid robot or Robotaxi, Tesla's course towards AI has been set. From now on, we can't view Tesla as just a whole - vehicle manufacturer anymore.

As for whether Tesla, like a spaceship, will reach Mars or explode on the way, we'll know when mass production starts next year.

Written by: Haosen

Edited by: Neck Right Twist & Mianxianhu Jun

Designed by: Xuanxuan

Source of pictures and materials:

This article is from the WeChat official account "Chaoping X.PIN", written by Neck Brother. It is published by 36Kr with permission.