With its quarterly revenue expected to approach $140 billion, is Apple, on the verge of its 50th year, "aging"?

On April 1, 2026, Apple will celebrate the 50th anniversary of its founding.

Before that, Apple estimates that in the upcoming holiday season (the fourth quarter of 2025, corresponding to the first fiscal quarter of Apple's 2026 fiscal year), its revenue will grow by 10% to 12%, twice the rate expected by Wall Street, approaching $140 billion, which is equivalent to more than $1.5 billion in daily revenue.

Considering Apple's historically conservative forecasting style, this guidance will most likely become a reality, giving its 2026 fiscal year a "good start."

For Apple, 2026 is destined to be a "decisive year."

On the one hand, a series of highly anticipated new hardware products such as M5/M6 chips, full - line OLED screens, smart home devices, and foldable screen devices will debut. On the other hand, there are an AI strategy that is not yet fully clear, an increasingly tightening global regulatory environment, and the lingering shadow of tariffs.

All - product - line offensive: Cook's "last battle"

It is reported that Apple has prepared a grand celebration for this occasion, including the release of several important new hardware products.

According to the prediction of well - known Apple analyst Mark Gurman, Apple will launch a series of new products in early 2026: the more affordable iPhone 17e, the entry - level iPad equipped with the A18 chip, and the iPad Air with the M4 processor.

Meanwhile, the Mac product line will also be updated, including the MacBook Air with the M5 chip, and the MacBook Pro and new Mac displays equipped with the M5 Pro and M5 Max chips.

In addition to traditional products, the smart home field will become Apple's first major battlefield.

It is revealed that the company plans to launch its first smart display in March - April next year, offering both a speaker base version and a wall - mounted version. This product will debut simultaneously with the newly upgraded Siri voice assistant, which will integrate for the first time the Gemini model specially customized by Google for it.

This combination of moves is aimed at the smart home market long - monopolized by Amazon and Google, and lays the foundation for the launch of a complete smart security ecosystem (including security cameras and other devices) at the end of the year.

What's even more eye - catching is that the long - rumored foldable iPhone is finally about to make its official debut.

Although it is four years later than its competitors to enter the market, Apple hopes to catch up with its unique product - defining ability. Meanwhile, the iPhone 18 Pro will completely bid farewell to Qualcomm's baseband chips and fully adopt Apple's self - developed C2 communication module.

In terms of the software ecosystem, Apple will officially release the next - generation operating systems such as iOS 27, macOS 27, and watchOS 27 at the Worldwide Developers Conference in June. These systems will be equipped with the fully upgraded Apple Intelligence artificial intelligence system, marking the in - depth advancement of Apple's AI strategy.

The focus of the autumn product launch will return to its traditional strengths, concentrating on the new - generation iPhone and smartwatch.

In terms of product matrix layout, Apple is planning a comprehensive upgrade. In addition to the upcoming new iPad mini, as early as the end of 2026, consumers may welcome the first major redesign of the MacBook Pro since 2021.

The new MacBook Pro is expected to be equipped with the M6 Pro and M6 Max chips, feature a slimmer and lighter body design, and introduce iPhone - style OLED touch - screen technology for the first time. In addition, the Mac mini and Mac Studio will also be upgraded with the M5 chip next year.

Meanwhile, Apple's smart glasses project is also accelerating. Supply chain sources indicate that suppliers have started small - batch trial production overseas.

Retail layout and supply - chain fine - tuning

Behind the grand strategic blueprint, Apple is paving the way for the future through a series of refined operational actions - from the upgrade of retail stores to the subtle changes in the supply chain.

Apple plans to adjust the layout of its global retail stores on November 12. This timing coincides with the eve of the holiday shopping season, indicating the company's emphasis on the year - end sales peak.

Apple just updated its new products in October, launching the 14 - inch MacBook Pro with the M5 chip, the Vision Pro, and the iPad Pro. However, the retail stores are still preparing for an "overnight update" operation.

According to the plan, employees will rearrange the in - store displays and product exhibition areas after the stores close on the night of November 11. Although such adjustments usually mean the launch of new products, considering the timing, this update is more likely to optimize the holiday shopping experience.

The dynamics of the supply chain often provide more accurate clues for product updates.

As Gurman revealed in an article on Bloomberg, the inventory levels of the Apple TV set - top box and the HomePod mini have tightened significantly. Both products are planned to be upgraded with new processors and self - developed wireless communication chips.

A decrease in inventory is usually a typical sign before the launch of new products. If the updated versions do not debut by the end of the year, it is not expected to be delayed for long, especially considering that these devices need to provide hardware support for the new - version Siri and Apple Intelligence functions to be launched next year.

Fully embrace OLED

In terms of products, Apple is steadily promoting the full application of OLED screens.

This technological path started with the Apple Watch in 2015 and then gradually extended to product lines such as the iPhone X and iPhone 12.

The MacBook Pro is expected to get an OLED screen between the end of 2026 and 2027, which marks the first application of this technology to the main products of the Mac series.

What's more noteworthy is that Gurman revealed that Apple plans to further expand OLED technology to the MacBook Air, iPad Air, and iPad mini product lines.

The specific roadmap shows that the iPad mini will be the first to adopt an OLED screen in next year's update, while the MacBook Air will have to wait until the 2028 product update to make this change.

As for the iPad Air, the version equipped with the M4 chip next year will still use an LCD screen, and the OLED version is expected to debut in 2027 or 2028.

If the rumored 18 - inch foldable iPad is launched as scheduled, OLED technology is expected to be introduced to this new product category in 2029.

AI lag, management adjustment, and regulatory challenges

Behind the grand strategic blueprint, Apple is facing multiple potential crises, which have become key factors restricting the future development of this technology giant.

The artificial intelligence field has become Apple's most obvious shortcoming.

Siri, as Apple's AI portal, has been criticized by users for its limited intelligence and inaccurate responses over the years and has even become the object of ridicule on social media. Although the cooperation with Google's Gemini brings a turning point, whether this "external brain" model can be perfectly integrated with Apple's ecosystem still needs time to prove.

More importantly, whether users are willing to accept a Siri based on third - party technology and whether it can repair the brand image damaged over the years are both uncertain.

The innovation bottleneck also restricts Apple's development.

In the smart home field, Amazon and Google have established an almost monopolistic ecological moat; in the AR/VR market, although the Vision Pro is technologically advanced, it has not been well - received in the market; in the most promising foldable - screen track, Apple has lost its first - mover advantage. Whether consumers will widely adopt the foldable iPhone and whether it can bring the expected return on investment to Apple are still open questions.

On the regulatory front, the EU's anti - monopoly crackdown has targeted one of Apple's most profitable businesses - the App Store. This business with an annual revenue of over $20 billion is facing the risk of having its business model reshaped.

What's more troublesome is that although the court recently ruled that Apple and Google can maintain their existing cooperation, the rapid development of AI search may shake the foundation of Google's huge traffic - payment to Apple.

The continuous changes in the management team, including COO Jeff Williams, may affect Apple's strategic execution ability.

Although new blood may bring new perspectives, frequent personnel changes often lead to strategic wavering and reduced decision - making efficiency. In the critical period of rapid technological iteration, a stable leadership team is crucial for maintaining the consistency of the product roadmap.

Fortunately, compared with the above challenges, Apple still has many advantages: sufficient cash reserves, a strong brand appeal, and a perfect ecosystem. These resources provide a solid backing for the company's transformation.

Overall, 2026 will be a real touchstone - Apple needs to prove that it not only has the ability to formulate a vision but also has the strength to execute efficiently in a complex environment, helping Apple start a new golden decade.

This article is from "Tencent Technology", author: Jin Lu, published by 36Kr with authorization.