After the shocking explosion and fire of the Li Auto MEGA, is the ternary lithium battery industry in big trouble?
A deflagration without intense collision caused the Li Auto MEGA, a vehicle priced over 500,000 yuan and marketed for family safety, to catch fire rapidly within 10 seconds and eventually burn to an empty shell. This incident instantly ignited a "powder keg" in the new - energy industry.
After the incident, middle - class parents who had bought the MEGA began to share the process of teaching their children "electric vehicle escape" methods, sparking a great deal of discussion.
*Image source: Xiaohongshu
On October 31st, Li Auto officially issued an apology, admitting that there was a defect in the coolant of the 2024 Li Auto MEGA vehicles in the same batch as the accident vehicle. In extreme cases, this could lead to thermal runaway of the power battery. Before this, the topic of battery safety had already been hotly debated.
The Li Auto MEGA uses the Kirin ternary lithium battery, which claims to have solved industry problems and is proud of its 5C ultra - fast charging. With its luxurious appeal, the occurrence of such a "bizarre" accident is quite unexpected. The debate between lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries has lasted for many years, and each has formed its own application matrix. Now, an accident has made consumers start to have doubts.
On one hand, there is ternary lithium, which represents extreme performance and longer range but also comes with higher risks. On the other hand, there is lithium iron phosphate, which symbolizes safety and affordability but has natural performance limitations. Does an accident involving a top - tier product in a normal scenario mean there is a problem with the technical route?
Actually, the debate about which type of battery performs better in new - energy vehicles may soon become meaningless. Due to the significant differences in the characteristics of the two technical routes, they have been pushed towards two completely different futures.
01 "Automobile manufacturers' publicity cannot cover up the risks of batteries"
The greatest impact of the Li Auto MEGA deflagration incident is that it straightforwardly overturned the traditional perception that high - end vehicles are safer. Initially, public opinion focused more on the door issue, but soon, some people discovered that the battery might be the main culprit in this incident.
According to Jiemian News, Li Auto had previously promoted battery safety, stating that the single - cell failure rate of the Kirin 5C battery jointly developed with CATL had been controlled at the PPB (one in a billion) level, three orders of magnitude better than the industry average of PPM (one in a million).
At the same time, Li Auto also emphasized that it has a powerful cloud - based BMS (Battery Management System) that can monitor nearly ten thousand control points in real - time, introduce large - model data learning, and provide feedback on abnormalities at millisecond - level speed.
However, these data advantages are based on the ternary lithium battery. So, as soon as the accident occurred, a large number of comparisons between ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate batteries emerged.
*Image source: CATL
From a chemical perspective, the chemical properties of the cathode material of ternary lithium batteries determine its relatively low thermal stability. Relevant research papers clearly point out that ternary lithium batteries may start a violent decomposition reaction at around 200°C, triggering thermal runaway. Moreover, this decomposition process releases oxygen, which means it is like a package with "built - in fuel and oxidizer", and the fire is likely to spread rapidly.
In contrast, the cathode material of lithium iron phosphate decomposes at a temperature as high as 500 - 800°C and does not produce oxygen during the process, which gives it a higher safety margin in essence.
Experimental data shows that in a nail - penetration test simulating an internal short - circuit, a ternary lithium battery cell can reach a peak temperature of 400 - 600°C within 10 seconds, while a lithium iron phosphate battery cell takes about 2 minutes to reach a peak temperature of 300°C. This difference of more than a minute could mean the difference between life and death in a real - world accident.
So, after the MEGA fire, many companies also publicly responded to their battery - solution ideas and safety issues. For example, Gu Jie, the senior director of XPeng's powertrain, stated on Weibo that 99% of XPeng's new cars use lithium iron phosphate batteries, and with additional safety measures, there have been "zero spontaneous combustion" incidents since the company's establishment.
*Image source: Gu Jie's Weibo
Automobile manufacturers invest heavily in researching complex BMS and efficient thermal management systems to "tame" the high - performance ternary lithium battery. By monitoring voltage, current, and temperature in real - time, they aim to suppress or give early warnings at the initial stage of thermal runaway.
However, in the complex and unpredictable real - world working conditions, can the multiple defenses of the system engineering really solve all problems? This incident shows that accidents may always be hard to avoid.
02 "Cost - effectiveness vs. high performance: safety and cost are hard to balance"
How do automobile manufacturers choose which type of battery for different technical routes? Why do high - end products choose the more radical ternary lithium battery?
To answer this question, we need to turn the clock back a few years in the new - energy market.
In 2016, China's new - energy subsidy policy underwent a key adjustment, for the first time strongly linking the subsidy amount to the energy density of the battery. Due to the technical route, the energy density of ternary lithium is naturally much higher than that of lithium iron phosphate, once reaching twice that of the latter. As a result, ternary lithium quickly became the market mainstream and became synonymous with "high - end" thanks to its long range, while the market share of lithium iron phosphate declined all the way, dropping to only 32% in 2019.
*Image source: China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance
However, the situation has changed. Since June 2021, when the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate exceeded that of ternary lithium, its market share has been soaring. Data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance shows that its market share has stably exceeded 70% this year and even exceeded 80% in some months.
What exactly happened during this process? The answer is that there has been a major change in the market structure.
In less than five years, the new - energy market has moved towards the mass market and even the sinking market. The policy - driven market has turned into a market - driven one, and price wars have become more intense. "100,000+ yuan" models have become the main battlefield. An unavoidable problem emerged - ternary lithium is too expensive. Coupled with the sharp increase in the price of lithium - battery materials due to supply shortages, the market had to pay more attention to the cost of large - scale applications. At this time, the low cost and durability of lithium iron phosphate became its greatest advantages.
Based on the past data of institutions such as GGII, the cost per kilowatt - hour of a ternary lithium battery was about 450 yuan, while that of lithium iron phosphate was only about 300 yuan. For an 80 - kilowatt - hour battery pack, the cost of using ternary lithium is 12,000 yuan higher. This huge price difference is enough to determine the fate of a vehicle model in the chaotic automobile market.
Even now, although there are models such as the Changan Qiyuan A07, Volkswagen ID.4X, and Zeekr X with prices below 200,000 yuan or even close to 100,000 yuan that are equipped with ternary lithium batteries, they are basically low - end versions. For models that require a 70 - 80 - kilowatt - hour battery pack or even higher long - range models, such as the Leapmotor C11, Zeekr 007, and Voyah Free, the price generally exceeds 200,000 yuan.
*Image source: Voyah
Moreover, in recent years, the new - energy market has witnessed the emergence of a "game - changer" - the explosion of large - battery extended - range/plug - in hybrid models. Due to the presence of the range extender, these models perfectly compensate for the biggest shortcoming of lithium iron phosphate - performance degradation at low temperatures.
Once, Li Xiang, the founder of Li Auto, bluntly said that lithium iron phosphate was a "disaster" for extended - range vehicles because of its significant voltage drop at low temperatures and low battery levels. However, now, the L6 model launched by Li Auto uses lithium iron phosphate batteries across the board, which is undoubtedly the most powerful evidence of the changing market trend.
In addition, lithium iron phosphate has entered a cycle of "more usage - more research - better performance with more research".
For example, in 2020, BYD's "Blade Battery" emerged as a turning point in the battery war. It creatively adopted the CTP (Cell - to - Pack, module - less) technology, eliminating the traditional battery modules and directly integrating long - strip "blade" cells into the battery pack. This increased the volume utilization rate of the battery pack from 40% to over 60%. In a battery pack of the same size, more cells can be installed.
This ingenious idea of "trading space for range" greatly improves the system energy density of the battery pack without directly changing the chemical system of lithium iron phosphate, enabling its range to compete with that of ternary lithium models.
In addition, CATL's Shenxing Battery and Zeekr's Gold Brick Battery also use the lithium iron phosphate technical route.
*Image source: Zeekr
It is the resonance between technological innovation and market demand that has finally pushed the once - dominant ternary lithium battery into a narrow market share.
03 "The final battle breaks the imagination: two routes, two futures"
Li Yunfei, the general manager of BYD's brand and public relations department, recently said during the Tokyo Motor Show that many brands may still choose ternary lithium batteries for range in the next one or two years, but he hopes everyone will be cautious.
An interesting contradiction has emerged, and the current market situation seems a bit fragmented.
At the beginning of this year, two major South Korean manufacturers, LG Energy Solution and SK On, made large - scale purchases of ternary materials in China. The A - share listed company Easpring Material signed a billion - yuan order for ternary cathode materials with them.
*Image source: Tianyancha
In addition, European and American high - end customers such as Tesla, Mercedes - Benz, and Audi mainly choose ternary lithium batteries when purchasing products from these manufacturers. In China, companies such as CATL and Honeycomb Energy are taking a two - pronged approach, investing in both technical routes.
Why is there criticism on one hand and a must - choose on the other? The answer lies in the different rules of the high - end market and the mass market. High - end brands must pursue the ultimate overall experience.
For luxury or high - performance electric vehicles with prices often exceeding four or five hundred thousand yuan, the advantages of ternary lithium batteries mentioned above cannot be replaced by lithium iron phosphate at present. For example, in terms of energy density, ternary lithium battery packs can be made smaller and lighter, which is crucial for vehicle handling, flexibility, and power consumption.
Yang Hongxin, the chairman and CEO of Honeycomb Energy, once said that high - end customers have a rigid demand for ternary lithium batteries, especially for extended - range and plug - in hybrid vehicles. Due to the limited design space for battery packs, only ternary lithium solutions can be used.
For example, among two well - known high - performance vehicles, the BYD Yangwang U9 uses a self - developed lithium iron phosphate blade battery with a range of 450 kilometers, while the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra uses CATL's ternary Kirin battery with a range of 630 kilometers. Although the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra is equipped with a 93.7 - kWh battery pack, while the Yangwang U9 only has an 80 - kWh battery pack, after calculation, the range per kilowatt - hour of the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra still exceeds that of the Yangwang U9, and the overall vehicle weight is also lighter.
In terms of low - temperature performance, although lithium iron phosphate has been improving, it can only reduce the performance degradation and has not truly surpassed ternary lithium batteries. Ternary lithium batteries also have a stronger ability to discharge large currents instantaneously and can accelerate faster.
Therefore, automobile manufacturers and battery manufacturers are trying to manage and offset the higher cost and safety risks of ternary lithium batteries by improving the structure, using more advanced BMS algorithms, and more efficient liquid - cooling heat dissipation systems, rather than simply giving up.
Honeycomb Energy is a typical example. Its "Dragon Scale Armor Battery Generation 1" uses lithium iron phosphate materials, and the "Dragon Scale Armor Battery Generation 2" battery pack that went offline in July this year is the world's first mass - produced 65 - kWh large - capacity 800V ternary extended - range hybrid battery. The first vehicle to be equipped with it is the high - end MPV Voyah Dreamer 2026. After the upgrade, Honeycomb Energy changed