Wait-and-see consumers won't always come out on top: Memory prices are skyrocketing, and this year's Double Eleven is the last chance to get a new phone at a good price.
Redmi's K series has been regarded as another strong cost - effective choice besides Xiaomi's digital series for a long time.
However, in the recently released Redmi K90 series, as the main force in offline sales, the standard version of the K90 has seen a full - line price increase compared to the K80.
The starting 256GB models have increased in price by 100 and 200 yuan respectively. The 512GB models, which are the most popular choice among most people, have increased by 300 yuan, and the 1TB models have increased by 400 yuan:
This price increase has exceeded people's expectations for price hikes due to hardware upgrades. Moreover, this year's market benchmark, the iPhone 17, has "increased the quantity without increasing the price", so there has been more criticism of the Redmi K90 series online.
To address this, Lu Weibing had to personally post on Weibo to explain: The main reason for the price increase of the standard version this time is "cost pressure from upstream suppliers" and "the increase in storage costs far exceeded expectations". Finally, the 12 + 512GB models had a 300 - yuan price cut during the first - month of the initial sales, temporarily calming the criticism.
Coincidentally, the phenomenon of price increases according to storage versions this year is not limited to Redmi. It is also a common feeling among people after the new phone launch wave from September to October. Usually, the storage specification with the highest demand has the largest price increase:
However, this time, the industry - wide price increase has affected far more than just mobile phones. The real hard - hit area is actually computers.
Take a colleague from the ifanr editorial department as an example. The other day, he upgraded his gaming laptop to play "Battlefield 6" smoothly and bought a 16GB DDR5 memory module for 399 yuan.
However, when checking today, the same 16GB memory module in the same store has increased from 399 yuan to 529 yuan, an increase of nearly 33%.
The order price on October 17th and the current price
At this point, we finally get to the core of this round of price increases for mobile phones and computer accessories: Memory price increase.
A few days ago, Chen Libai, the chairman of ADATA, a major storage manufacturer, publicly revealed that for the first time, all four of ADATA's major product lines, DDR4, DDR5, NAND flash memory chips, and HDD mechanical hard drives, are facing a shortage of inventory, and they had to implement a sales restriction.
Regarding the inventory shortage caused by difficult procurement this time, Chen Libai explained:
The main reason for this round of shortage is different from the previous situation where peer module manufacturers hoarded goods. Instead, well - funded cloud service providers and AI giants are purchasing for their own use rather than resale. This is the first time in my 30 - year career that I've seen shortages in all four product lines at the same time.
To put it more simply, cloud service providers like Amazon and Microsoft, as well as AI giants like OpenAI, have bought most of the production capacity of memory chips from Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, ultimately leading to shortages and price increases in the consumer market (such as mobile phones and memory modules).
The most extreme case is SK Hynix, the current leader in the memory industry. The company has sold out all of its storage products for next year, and its profit this quarter has skyrocketed by as much as 62%.
Industry analysts believe that the demand orders for DRAM will increase by at least 20% next year, and the demand for NAND will also increase by more than 10%.
According to the plans previously announced by SK and Samsung, the price of memory chips will increase by up to 30% in the fourth quarter.
Photo | Amazon
However, the multi - party demand situation in the storage market, including "data centers, module manufacturers, computers, and mobile phones", has existed for a long time. Why has there been a supply shortage and product price increase concentrated this year? Ifanr believes that "one of the logical chains" for this round of price increases is as follows:
1. In recent years, cloud - based AI computing, data storage, and the business of cloud service providers have continued to expand. Coupled with policy incentives in the past two years, major technology giants have been accelerating the construction of new data centers and strengthening their control. The hardware demand for storage devices in AI and data centers has seen a concentrated explosion.
2. Since the demand from cloud service and AI giants is mainly for server memory and high - bandwidth memory (HBM), not only is the consumption of wafers increasing, but the profit margins are also more attractive. Memory chip manufacturers (such as Samsung) are continuously shifting towards commercial products, squeezing the production capacity of original DDR and LPDDR.
3. Since the production and spare parts cycle of mobile phone and computer manufacturers often lasts for one to two years, mobile phone manufacturers have to increase their inventory to cope with the impact of rising flash memory prices. There has even been a phenomenon where they sign long - term supply agreements of 3 - 5 years with memory chip manufacturers for the first time.
4. On one hand, there is a steadily increasing demand from the B - side. On the other hand, C - side manufacturers are increasing their procurement volume as a precaution. The simultaneous competition for goods between the two has created a pure seller's market, and prices have risen accordingly.
Each new data center often has a capacity demand measured in PB | OpenAI
More importantly, the root cause of this round of storage price increases - the strong demand from cloud computing, data centers, and AI - will not subside in the foreseeable future.
Here, we have to mention a grand plan "Stargate" that OpenAI is implementing.
This 300 - billion - dollar grand blueprint is described by OpenAI as "an infrastructure plan for artificial intelligence", which involves the integration of dozens of industry sectors such as processors, GPUs, storage, electricity, and infrastructure. It not only attracts chip manufacturers from the US, Japan, and South Korea but also extends countless olive branches to high - end process chip manufacturers represented by TSMC.
From the perspective of the global supply chain, this is a "big shopping spree for AI" by OpenAI in cooperation with the original suppliers in various technology fields.
Photo | Tooliqa
As one of the pillars in this process, the storage industry naturally cannot escape its influence. Moreover, OpenAI is not the only one that cooperates with original suppliers, secures dedicated production capacity, and squeezes 2C business with 2B business. Musk's AI, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are all doing the same.
For example, just one week before Samsung announced the price increase of memory chips, Samsung and SK Semiconductor announced that they would join OpenAI's "Stargate" plan. Samsung and SK also plan to increase production capacity to reach a monthly production scale of 900,000 DRAM wafers, focusing on producing advanced memory chips dedicated to AI.
Photo | Tom's Hardware
Moreover, in addition to memory chips, Samsung and SK Semiconductor will also participate in the construction of an AI data center in South Korea for the "Stargate" project, transforming from simple chip suppliers to operators of data centers.
From the worst - case scenario, this creates a self - production and self - sales platform for Samsung and SK, and the possibility of them "asking for exorbitant prices" for the memory chips they sell in the future has even increased.
In other words, judging from the actions of storage industry giants, in the future, flash memory chips for the consumer market will further give way to industry - specific chips. Even in the best - case scenario, the production capacity will remain unchanged. The large - scale price increase in the storage market next year and in the coming years will be an unstoppable trend.
Generated using Gemini
In this context, the mobile phone market, which is most closely related to us, will naturally be the most affected.
Needless to say, the first to be affected are mid - and low - end mobile phones that are extremely sensitive to configuration costs. The impact of rising flash memory prices and the lack of comparable alternatives will have a huge impact on the cost - effectiveness of products.
The result is often either a price increase or a reduction in other aspects of the configuration. Either way, it is something consumers don't want to see but have to bear.
Photo | The Verge
In addition, this round of turmoil in the storage industry coincides with the chip upgrade period of major mobile phone manufacturers. Adding the price increase of storage to the already tight SoC production capacity - it seems that not only Apple will be selling "gold - like memory".
According to TSMC, the 2nm process that will be implemented next year will undoubtedly be mainly allocated to Apple's A20 series, Qualcomm's next - generation Snapdragon 8, and MediaTek's Dimensity. The cost and yield rate of the 2nm process will naturally lead to price increases, and the price of SoCs next year will definitely be higher than that of the 3nm chips this year.
Photo | Ezone
However, AI giants also want a share of the small "pond" of the 2nm process.
Although OpenAI's agreement to produce 6 - gigawatt AI - specific chips in the future is with AMD and Broadcom, the real chip manufacturer can only be TSMC.
According to supply chain information, Apple is also planning to standardize 12GB of memory for the iPhone 18 series to support potential on - device AI functions in the future. With such a large demand and the already rising price of LPDDR memory, a "significant price increase" for the iPhone next year is almost a foregone conclusion.
Photo | MacRumors
From another perspective, this year's Double Eleven is indeed the best time to buy an iPhone 17 - or any desired mobile phone model. The prices of mobile phone raw materials and components are rising across the board. If those who are waiting keep waiting, they may really suffer losses...
The popularity of the artificial intelligence industry shows no sign of decline in the foreseeable future. For at least the next five years, the growth in storage demand driven by