The third-quarter reports of the industrial sectors in provincial regions: Is it the turn for central China to shine?

Currently, we are in a crucial stage for the successful conclusion of the 14th Five - Year Plan, and the goals and tasks of the annual economic and social development have entered the final sprint period.

According to the latest economic data for the first three quarters released by various regions, it is clearly visible that the national industrial landscape is accelerating its transformation. Overall, 21 provinces have witnessed their above - scale industrial added value growth rates outpacing the national "average line" (6.2%).

Focusing on the top ten provincial economies, eight provinces have above - scale industrial added value growth rates higher than the national average. Among them, Henan leads with a growth rate of 8.4%. Hunan ties with Shandong for the second place with a growth rate of 7.8%, and Hubei ranks third with a growth rate of 7.7%.

Outside the top ten provincial economies, Anhui's above - scale industrial added value increased by 8.8% year - on - year in the first three quarters, ranking fourth in the country. Thanks to the high - speed industrial growth, Anhui is continuously narrowing the economic gap with the provinces ahead of it and has become the most powerful challenger to break into the "top ten".

In addition, Jilin and Liaoning, both old industrial bases in Northeast China, have shown completely opposite trends in the growth rate of above - scale industrial added value. Jilin is "running side by side" with Henan at a growth rate of 8.4%, while Liaoning ranks at the bottom of the country with a growth rate of 2.2%.

It is worth mentioning that the recently released national 15th Five - Year Plan proposal places "building a modern industrial system and consolidating and strengthening the foundation of the real economy" as the first strategic task, proposing to "maintain a reasonable proportion of the manufacturing industry and build a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as the backbone".

Against this backdrop, how will the industrial development logic of each province change?

1

Seeking "Innovation"

As the hottest industrial track, new energy vehicles are constantly influencing the industrial competition landscape among large economic provinces.

Specifically, Henan's GDP reached 4,886.757 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the national average. Among them, the above - scale industrial added value increased by 8.4% year - on - year, 2.2 percentage points higher than the national average, leading among the top ten provincial economies.

The key driving force lies in the automotive industry.

"In the first three quarters, the above - scale industrial added value of the province's five major leading industries increased by 11.8% year - on - year, contributing 64.6% to the above - scale industry, fully demonstrating the 'leading role'." Zhao Qingxian, the head of the industrial department of the Henan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said when interpreting the province's industrial data for the first three quarters of 2025. The growth rates of all five major leading industries in Henan are higher than that of the above - scale industry, with the automotive and auto parts industry leading at a growth rate of 20.0%.

In particular, the new energy vehicle industry has seen a 19.3% increase in industrial added value, driving a 26.2% increase in the added value of the new energy vehicle industry chain, ranking first among Henan's 28 key industrial chains. Under the influence of the new energy vehicle industry, the added value of Henan's strategic emerging industries in the industrial sector increased by 11.6% year - on - year in the first three quarters, reaching the highest growth rate since 2022.

Centering around the emerging new energy vehicle industry, Henan has successively attracted BYD and CATL, two leading enterprises, to settle and start production, driving the local new energy industry to a new level. As of the end of the third quarter of this year, Henan produced 487,000 new energy vehicles, ranking 11th in the country. Although temporarily outside the top ten, it is only 17,000 vehicles less than Guangxi, which ranks one place ahead.

In fact, there have been precedents for provinces achieving high - speed industrial growth through new energy vehicles, with Anhui being the most typical example.

In the 1960s, Jianghuai Automobile built the "first Anhui - made vehicle", opening the curtain on Anhui's automotive industry. Today, Anhui has gathered seven complete vehicle enterprises, including Chery Group, NIO, Volkswagen Anhui, Hefei BYD, Jianghuai Automobile Group, Hefei Changan, and Hammar Technology, constantly challenging the established pattern of the national automotive industry.

The early layout of the new energy vehicle industry has brought growth dividends. In the first three quarters of this year, Anhui produced 2.4044 million vehicles and 1.2163 million new energy vehicles, surpassing Guangdong in both indicators and ranking first in the country.

The new energy vehicle industry is also a microcosm of Anhui's rapid industrial economic growth. Data shows that in the first three quarters of this year, Anhui's GDP reached 3,977 billion yuan, ranking 11th in the country. The above - scale industrial added value increased by 8.8% year - on - year, ranking fourth in the country and higher than that of the top ten provincial economies.

If we look at a longer time frame, since the 14th Five - Year Plan, Anhui's above - scale industrial added value has increased by an average of 7.9% annually, 2 percentage points higher than the national average, ranking 8th in the country, higher than Anhui's national GDP ranking. Not long ago, at a press conference, Anhui officially announced that it had "historically entered the ranks of 'national industrial provinces'".

With strong industrial momentum, Anhui is continuously narrowing the gap with the provinces ahead of it and has become the most powerful challenger to the top ten provincial economies.

2

Seeking "Change"

Shandong and Hunan, both large industrial provinces, also showed strong growth momentum in the first three quarters, tying for the second place among the top ten provincial economies with a growth rate of 7.8% in above - scale industrial added value. During the same period, Shandong and Hunan achieved GDP of 7,711.5 billion yuan and 4,024.056 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points higher than the national average.

From the perspective of industrial structure, the equipment manufacturing industry has become the common engine of industrial growth in both provinces. In Shandong, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 12.0%, 4.2 percentage points higher than that of all above - scale industries, driving the provincial industrial growth by 3.0 percentage points. Among them, the automotive, railway and shipbuilding, and electronics industries increased by 17.0%, 14.9%, and 16.6% respectively.

In Hunan, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11.4%, driving the provincial above - scale industrial growth by 3.7 percentage points. Specifically, the electronic information manufacturing industry increased by 14.8%, and the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 13.5%.

It is not difficult to see that the industrial bases of Shandong and Hunan are relatively traditional. In recent years, whether it is Shandong's steel and petrochemical industries or Hunan's construction machinery and rail transit industries, they have all faced more or less a downward cycle or a "ceiling" in demand. This means that compared with provinces like Anhui, which are good at emerging industries, Shandong and Hunan urgently need to find new industrial growth points through the transformation of old and new driving forces.

On a national scale, traditional industries are the "mainstay" of China's current industrial system, accounting for about 80% of the added value in the manufacturing industry. The national 15th Five - Year Plan proposal clearly states that it is necessary to "optimize and upgrade traditional industries", emphasizing the promotion of technological transformation and upgrading and the digital and intelligent transformation of the manufacturing industry.

Currently, "digital and intelligent transformation" has become the key area for industrial transformation in Shandong and Hunan. Relying on a complete industrial system, Shandong released the "Implementation Plan for Accelerating the High - Quality Development of Key Areas Empowered by Artificial Intelligence" in May this year, aiming to cultivate 20 basic - level artificial intelligence large models serving vertical industries, create more than 50 replicable and promotable benchmark application scenarios, and launch more than 100 typical cases of integrated demonstrations by 2027.

Driven by the top - level design, Shandong's industrial momentum is accelerating. Recently, the Information Office of the Shandong Provincial Government said that since the 14th Five - Year Plan, Shandong has implemented 12,000 technological transformation projects worth more than 5 million yuan each year. The digital transformation coverage rate of above - scale industrial enterprises has reached 95.1%, and the number of national - level intelligent manufacturing factories ranks first in the country.

Meanwhile, on October 28, Sany Heavy Industry, the "leading" enterprise in Hunan's manufacturing industry, was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. At the listing ceremony, Xiang Wenbo, the rotating chairman of Sany Group and the chairman of Sany Heavy Industry, said that the company will continue to promote the "three - pronged" strategy of globalization, digital and intelligent transformation, and low - carbon development.

In the first half of 2025, Sany Heavy Industry showed a double - digit growth in both revenue and net profit. Taking a broader view, under the effect of intelligent transformation, from January to August this year, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in Hunan increased by 9.3% year - on - year. Among the 39 major industries, 37 industries achieved profitability, and the corporate efficiency improved significantly.

Qin Zunwen, the vice - president of the China Urban Economic Society and the secretary - general of the Yangtze River Economic Belt High - Quality Development Think - Tank Alliance, said in an interview with Urban Evolution that "compared with Guangdong and Jiangsu, Shandong has a relatively high proportion of traditional industries, which restricts industrial development. Hunan's economic growth rate was also once lower than the national average. Both provinces need to continue to strengthen digital and intelligent transformation to promote further industrial upgrading."

3

Seeking "Solutions"

Looking across the country, in the first three quarters, the growth rate of above - scale industrial added value in ten provinces failed to "outpace" the national average. Among them, Liaoning has attracted the most attention, with its above - scale industrial added value increasing by only 2.2% year - on - year, ranking at the bottom among all provinces.

As the vanguard of Northeast China's revitalization, Liaoning's economic growth rate exceeded the national level for the first time in a decade in 2023 and continued to outperform the national average in 2024. However, the constraints of the industrial short - board on the economy cannot be ignored. In 2024, Liaoning's above - scale industrial growth rate was 3.1%, 2.7 percentage points lower than the national average (5.8%).

In the first three quarters of this year, the gap between Liaoning and the national average in industrial growth rate further widened to 4 percentage points. During the same period, Liaoning's GDP reached 2,428.39 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, 0.8 percentage points slower than the whole of last year and 0.9 percentage points lower than the national average.

In contrast, Jilin, also an old industrial base in Northeast China, has shown a strong recovery growth curve. In the first three quarters, its above - scale industrial added value increased by 8.4% year - on - year, 6.3 percentage points higher than the whole of last year and 2.2 percentage points higher than the national average. During the same period, Jilin's GDP reached 1,083.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%, 1.0 percentage point faster than the whole of last year and 0.1 percentage point higher than the national average.

Specifically, all eight key industries in Jilin maintained growth in the first three quarters. Among them, the added value of the pharmaceutical, information, and petrochemical industries maintained a double - digit growth rate, increasing by 17.1%, 15.0%, and 11.0% year - on - year respectively. The food industry and the metallurgical and building materials industry also increased by 8.6% and 7.3% respectively.

In the field of high - end manufacturing, Jilin's production of new energy vehicles increased by 9.5% year - on - year in the first three quarters, and the production of urban rail vehicles increased by 54.7% year - on - year, upgrading the industrial structure towards high - value - added products. In addition, Jilin's investment structure has been optimized simultaneously. In the first three quarters, the provincial industrial investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year, accounting for 3.4 percentage points more than the same period last year, laying a foundation for future continuous growth.

Qin Zunwen said that Jilin has shown good development momentum in key industries such as the information industry and pharmaceuticals, and has continued to make breakthroughs in emerging industries such as chemicals and clean energy. In contrast, Liaoning's traditional fuel - powered vehicle industry has been severely impacted, and the transformation speed of old and new driving forces is relatively lagging.

In fact, as early as when the economic data for the first half of this year was released, a relevant person in charge of the Liaoning Provincial Development and Reform Commission said that Liaoning's industry has been under continuous pressure. The proportion of traditional fuel - powered vehicles is relatively large, while the proportion of new energy vehicles is relatively small. Affected by the increasing market demand for new energy vehicles, traditional fuel - powered vehicle production enterprises have been somewhat impacted. Affected by factors such as international commodity prices, traditional industries such as metallurgy and petrochemicals are facing greater downward pressure.

The data for the first three quarters shows that among the 40 major industrial sectors in Liaoning, the added value of 24 sectors increased year - on - year, with a growth rate of 60.0%. Among them, the automotive manufacturing industry decreased by 5.4%. In terms of products, 28 out of 64 key products increased in production year - on - year, with a growth rate of 43.8%. Among them, the production of automobiles was 596,000, a decrease of 10.1%.

To promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the Innovative Development of Artificial Intelligence in Liaoning Province" proposes to empower industrial development with "artificial intelligence + manufacturing" and build eight artificial - intelligence - integrated industrial clusters around key areas such as intelligent connected vehicles, machine tools, intelligent robots, petrochemicals, shipbuilding, steel metallurgy, and aviation equipment.

According to the annual plan, Liaoning aims to achieve a growth rate of over 4.5% in above - scale industrial added value in 2025.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Urban Evolution", author: Liu Xuqiang. Republished by 36Kr with permission.