Why is this "dark horse" in central China in the spotlight again?
Currently, controlled nuclear fusion, known as the "artificial sun," is opening a new chapter in the energy revolution.
It represents an imagination of future energy: a drop of seawater can release energy equivalent to 300 liters of gasoline. It will not only significantly reduce the cost of electricity but also provide crucial energy support for high - energy - consuming industries including AI.
In Hefei, Anhui, on October 13, the Comprehensive Research Facility for Fusion Reactor Key Systems (CRAFT) made important progress - the prototype component of the divertor successfully passed the testing and acceptance by the expert group. Before that, the key component of the host of the Compact Fusion Energy Experiment Device (BEST), the Dewar base, was successfully developed and delivered.
The breakthroughs in large - scale scientific facilities undoubtedly help China further consolidate its leading position in the field of controlled nuclear fusion globally. The question is, why is it Hefei again?
Similar to its previous successful "venture capital" investments, Hefei has been involved in the field of controlled nuclear fusion for over 50 years. As early as 1974, Hefei built the toroidal tokamak device HT - 6, which can be regarded as the initial prototype of the "artificial sun" in China. Since then, large - scale scientific facilities have been continuously established, constantly enhancing Hefei's importance in the field of controlled nuclear fusion in China. Now, with the dawn of commercialization emerging, Hefei is taking the lead.
Yesterday, the question "How far is China from realizing the 'artificial sun'?" trended on social media. Looking back at Hefei's development process, we may find some answers from the breakthroughs of this city.
1
Research Layout
There is a saying that the two future industries in which Hefei can compete globally are related to the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) and the Science Island respectively. One is quantum technology, where the research level of USTC can rival the world's highest level, and the other is controlled nuclear fusion.
On the Science Island, there is what the outside world calls the "iron triangle" of Hefei's controlled nuclear fusion. In addition to BEST and CRAFT, there is also the world's first fully superconducting tokamak device, the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST), also known as the "Oriental Super - Ring." They form the "core area" of Hefei's controlled nuclear fusion, and behind them is a common entity: the Institute of Plasma Physics of the Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Image source: CCTV News
In fact, looking at the national research pattern of controlled nuclear fusion, the Institute of Plasma Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences is also an important pole.
More precisely, currently, China has formed a pattern of fusion energy development led by two major research institutes, namely the Southwestern Institute of Physics (SWIP) of the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) (hereinafter referred to as "SWIP") and the Institute of Plasma Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, with the participation of universities such as Tsinghua University and the University of Science and Technology of China, as well as relevant private enterprises. Among them, the two major research institutes are located in Chengdu and Hefei respectively, and they have different divisions of labor.
Similar to Hefei, under the leadership of SWIP, Chengdu also has a large - scale scientific facility, the "China Huanliu - 3." Yu Fenghui, a senior researcher at the Pangu Think Tank, told us that it has different focuses from EAST and BEST to jointly solve the scientific and technical problems in nuclear fusion technology.
Among them, EAST focuses on high - temperature plasma experiments for long - term stable operation to explore the conditions required for future commercial nuclear fusion reactors;
BEST is to verify a more compact and efficient fusion device design, aiming to reduce construction costs and technical difficulties;
And the "China Huanliu - 3" focuses on high - parameter plasma physics research, especially on improving plasma temperature, density, and confinement time, which are the three key indicators for measuring the progress of nuclear fusion.
Also within this year, EAST and the "China Huanliu - 3," which have been built for many years, have respectively achieved breakthroughs:
In January, EAST achieved a 1066 - second steady - state operation of 100 million - degree plasma, setting a new world record. Among them, the kilosecond - level is an important basis for the stability of the fusion reaction, but the longer the operation time, the higher the difficulty of confining the plasma. This experiment exceeding the kilosecond means that humans have simulated the conditions required for the operation of future fusion reactors on an experimental device for the first time.
In March, the "China Huanliu - 3" achieved a breakthrough in the "double - 100 - million - degree" operation with a nuclear temperature of 117 million degrees and an electron temperature of 160 million degrees for the first time, and its comprehensive parameters have greatly improved. Zhong Wulu, the chief designer, once wrote that to achieve nuclear fusion, the temperature of the nuclei should exceed 100 million degrees. After reaching this temperature and injecting fuel, a large - scale fusion reaction can occur. The results of this experiment mean that the basic conditions for conducting combustion experiments have been met, and this threshold has been crossed.
2
Towards Commercialization
Hefei's breakthrough is not limited to the research stage it is good at.
Zhong Wulu previously said in an interview that for controlled nuclear fusion to be commercialized, it has to go through about six stages.
The first stage is to explore the principle and make it work; the second stage is to conduct large - scale experiments to obtain a large amount of data and discover some laws; the third stage is to conduct combustion experiments to achieve fusion reactions and obtain fusion power; the fourth stage is to build an experimental reactor; the fifth stage is the demonstration reactor; and finally, it is the commercial reactor.
In his view, the world is currently in the transition stage from combustion experiments to experimental reactors. For China, it first needs to conduct combustion experiments and obtain fusion power. The next step is to build a fusion reactor and verify relevant engineering technologies to support the commercialization of fusion by the middle of this century.
The Comprehensive Research Facility for Fusion Reactor Key Systems (CRAFT) in Hefei, Anhui. Image source: Xinhua News Agency
Just as Zhong Wulu compares achieving nuclear fusion to a "long - distance marathon," there is a lingering "50 - year curse" - every time the commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is discussed, the answer is always "only 50 years left."
What has been repeatedly mentioned by local media is that in 2021, a salon, which was later regarded as a turning point in the "commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion in China" in a serious sense, was held at the 1958 Café of the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei. One of the themes of the meeting was "Is it possible to commercialize controlled nuclear fusion within the next 50 years?"
After that, the commercialization goal was soon incorporated into the official plan.
In 2023, Anhui issued the "Strategic Action Plan for Accelerating the Commercial Application of Fusion Energy in an Innovative Mode (2022 - 2035)," establishing a three - step development strategy for the development and application of nuclear fusion, including experimental reactors, engineering reactors, and commercial reactors.
Among them, BEST will complete the power generation demonstration and verification before 2030, and the China Fusion Engineering Experimental Reactor (CFEDR) will be built in 2030; around 2040, with a commercial company as the main implementer and in cooperation with industrial chain enterprises, the construction of a commercial reactor with higher fusion power will be carried out.
It is worth mentioning that CFEDR is considered a representative of China's participation in international competition.
Li Jiangang, an academician and the former director of the Institute of Plasma Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, pointed out in an interview this year that the design of CFEDR has been initiated to complete the technical transition and industrial practice from the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) to the fusion prototype power station, demonstrating the feasibility of continuous high - power, safe, and stable operation of fusion energy.
ITER is the world's largest fusion research project, jointly built by 35 countries in southern France. After several years of difficult negotiations, China began to fully participate in the project in 2008.
Counting from the initiative put forward in 1985, the project has been advancing for 40 years. According to the 2024 roadmap, it is planned to achieve full magnetic energy operation in 2036 and start the deuterium - tritium fuel experimental operation in 2039.
In contrast, with Hefei's promotion of CFEDR, it is possible to complete the construction of the demonstration reactor first and enter the commercialization stage faster.
3
Breaking Through in the Race
More and more countries and cities are starting to seize the commercialization track.
According to the prediction of the International Energy Agency, by 2030, the global nuclear fusion market scale is expected to reach $496.55 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.4% from 2024 to 2030, indicating huge market potential.
Facing the upcoming commercialization "singularity," some enterprises have made early arrangements. Taking the United States as an example, as early as 2023, Helion Energy in the United States announced that its nuclear fusion power plant would start supplying electricity to Microsoft in 2028; Commonwealth Fusion Systems also signed a similar agreement with Google and plans to build a power plant in the first half of the 2030s.
In China, there are also early - movers making plans.
A research report from AVIC Securities pointed out that China's nuclear fusion industry has gradually formed a new pattern with the "national team" leading the way and private enterprises developing in coordination. The industrial clusters are mainly concentrated in cities such as Hefei, Chengdu, Nanchang, and Shanghai.
Among them, Hefei and Chengdu are currently the cities with relatively complete nuclear fusion industrial clusters in China. Hefei has gathered private enterprises such as Fusion Energy and Star Energy; while Chengdu has private enterprises such as Ocean Fusion and Xianjue Fusion.
The Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences on the Science Island in Hefei, Anhui. Image source: Xinhua News Agency
Fusion Energy is regarded as the first unicorn in the field of controlled nuclear fusion in China. Behind it, in addition to the Hefei state - owned assets such as Wanneng Capital, Hefei Industrial Investment, and Wanneng Co., Ltd. making another move, there is also NIO. Local media reported that Li Bin, its founder, played an important role in the initial establishment of Fusion Energy. He hopes to develop commercial fusion through market - oriented methods.
Another representative enterprise is the China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd., which was established in Shanghai in July this year. Led by the China National Nuclear Corporation, more than 100 units and capital providers have jointly invested about 11.495 billion yuan. It is also building the "China Huanliu - 4" in Shanghai. Thus, Shanghai will also become another development pole for controlled nuclear fusion.
The relevant industrial chain is also being further extended. Lin Boqiang, the dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute, once analyzed in an article that currently, the demand for upstream materials such as superconducting magnets, special steel, and deuterium - tritium fuel is strong, and domestic enterprises such as Western Superconducting Technologies and Shanghai Superconducting have achieved technological autonomy; for the core equipment in the middle - stream such as magnet systems, vacuum chambers, and divertors, enterprises such as Aoti Industry and Guoguang Electric are accumulating technical experience by participating in the ITER project; while the downstream is still in the exploration stage.
A more optimistic attitude is gradually becoming a consensus. The above - mentioned AVIC Securities research report mentioned that most enterprises believe that the first fusion reactor to supply power to the grid and the fusion reactor with commercial value are expected to be born between 2031 and 2035 and later. The Atomic Energy Law passed by China last month further improves the regulatory system, paving the way for the smooth progress of commercialization.
In Yu Fenghui's view, compared with Hefei, which focuses more on basic scientific research and key technological breakthroughs, Shanghai, with its position as a financial center, is more prominent in the commercial transformation of scientific and technological achievements and international cooperation.
For Hefei, the question is how to better leverage its own advantages. In any case, as Yan Jianwen, the chairman of Fusion Energy (Anhui) Co., Ltd., said, "We can't get up early but arrive late."
This article is from the WeChat public account "Urban Evolution Theory". Author: Yang Qifei. Republished by 36Kr with permission.