Tesla can't squeeze the Indian middle class.

On the Chinese Internet, Apple, Tesla, and Sam's Club are the standard "three-piece set for the middle class."

This label, born during the wave of China's consumption upgrade, once sparked intense discussions on the Chinese Internet. Some internet celebrities and big V bloggers were even banned from speaking. However, when this wave tried to reach the Indian subcontinent, the story took two different paths.

In the just-passed September, on one hand, the iPhone 17 sold like hotcakes in India. Indian Apple fans fought with each other to buy the new product. On the other hand, Tesla was in a slump. In Mumbai, its Model Y, priced at nearly 500,000 yuan, only received more than 600 orders, starting off terribly.

In the same market, with the same dream of being "the next China," Apple and Tesla have very different fates. This is worth pondering.

Apple is making inroads

The iPhone 17 sold extremely well in India.

On September 19, as soon as the iPhone 17 series was launched, it triggered a frenzy of purchases among Indian Apple fans. The queue was hundreds of meters long. There was even a brief physical conflict due to overcrowding outside the Apple Store at the BKC Jio Centre in Mumbai. Eventually, the troublemakers were taken away by the guards, and order was gradually restored.

According to foreign media reports, Apple's annual sales in India reached a record high of nearly $9 billion in the fiscal year 2025 (as per the Indian market convention, ending on March 31, 2025), an increase of about 13% compared to $8 billion in the previous fiscal year. The iPhone accounted for most of the sales, and the demand for MacBook computers also increased significantly.

Both Apple officials and third - party research institutions seem to believe that Apple will replicate its miracle in China in India.

At the latest earnings conference call, Apple CEO Tim Cook mentioned India more than once. "The Indian market is very exciting. The market vitality there is incredible."

Cook recalled April 18, 2023, the day when the first Apple Store in Mumbai opened.

He personally pushed open the glass door to greet the excited crowd outside. The flashing lights and cheers made it seem like it was back to Sanlitun, Beijing, in 2008. At that moment, what Cook saw might be a projection of Apple's next golden decade.

Screenshot from the official Apple website

From 2008 to 2018 was Apple's golden decade in China. It's not impossible for Apple to replicate its success in India.

After all, India's economy is currently developing at a high speed, and the per capita disposable income is growing strongly. According to Wind data, from 2013 to 2023, India's per capita national disposable income increased from 68,572.48 rupees (about 5,514.60 yuan) to 108,786.18 rupees (about 8,748.58 yuan), a growth of about 1.59 times in 10 years, with an annual compound growth rate of about 4.72%. India's current per capita disposable income is comparable to that of China in 2007, and its GDP growth rate is on par with that of China from 2013 to 2015.

Moreover, Apple is increasing its manufacturing in India. According to Bloomberg data, as India's manufacturing capacity is gradually improving, in the fiscal year 2025 (ending in late March 2025), the total value of iPhones made in India reached $22 billion, with a production increase of nearly 60% year - on - year. From April to July 2025, the export value of iPhones from India reached $7.5 billion.

Some Indian media reported that Apple has significantly expanded its supply chain in India, increasing the number of partners to nearly 45 and creating about 350,000 jobs in total.

In this way, it perfectly matches the time curve of Apple's golden age in China.

Tesla is having a hard time selling

In contrast, Tesla's situation in India is a bit embarrassing.

On September 27, Tao Lin, the vice - president of Tesla, announced that the first batch of Tesla Model Ys in India were officially delivered. All these models were produced at the Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory.

In July, Tesla's first showroom in India officially opened, marking Tesla's official entry into the Indian market. The showroom is located in the Bandra Kurla Complex in Mumbai, covering an area of 4,000 square feet, mainly displaying the Model Y produced in China.

The starting price of the Model Y in India is 5.989 million rupees (about 499,000 yuan), and the long - range rear - wheel - drive version is priced at 6.789 million rupees (about 566,000 yuan).

Compared with Apple products that cost only a few hundred dollars, which Indian Apple fans can afford with some effort, this price is almost astronomical.

Moreover, India's infrastructure doesn't seem to be ready to embrace new - energy vehicles.

Some institutions predict that to achieve the new - energy vehicle development goal, the Indian government needs to install 2.9 million public charging piles. As of early 2025, the number of public charging stations in India was about 26,367, with a vehicle - to - charging - pile ratio as high as 235:1, and they are mainly concentrated in the urban core areas and along the highways, with insufficient coverage in second - and third - tier cities and rural areas.

In short, India lacks electricity, and Tesla cars can't run well.

Since sales started in mid - July, Tesla has only received more than 600 car orders, far below the company's expectations. This is approximately equivalent to the number of vehicles Tesla delivered globally every four hours in the first half of this year.

Basically, it's a disastrous start.

But a magical move happened. India, a country that originally lacked electricity, has started exporting electricity. According to India's Economic Times (ET), quoting Indian Power Minister Khattar on June 10, the Indian government has signed agreements with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates respectively to export about 2 million kilowatts of electricity to each country via submarine cables.

This is not an ordinary "bringing electricity to the door." It's a cross - border energy project that India has spent a lot of money on. A 1,700 - kilometer submarine cable connecting Saudi Arabia will cost 4.7 trillion rupees. The 1,400 - kilometer submarine cable connecting the UAE will also cost 4.35 trillion rupees. The total investment in the two projects exceeds 9 trillion rupees.

Then, projects like "Stargate" that require strong power support are also going to be launched in India, which is really confusing.

Elon Musk is also persistent

Like Tim Cook, Tesla founder Elon Musk is also obsessed with India.

As early as 2016, Musk had a plan to lead Tesla into the Indian market. However, limited by high tariffs, Tesla is still constantly trying.

In fact, the Indian government also welcomes Tesla to build a factory in India. In October 2020, Indian officials actively invited Tesla to build an Indian Gigafactory in Bangalore.

In January 2021, at the invitation of the Indian government, Tesla established "Tesla India Motors and Energy Private Limited" in Bangalore, India, and it was reported that two top - level ports in India were competing for Tesla to build a factory.

Subsequently, due to disputes over issues such as tariffs, the factory - building plan was indefinitely postponed.

At that time, Shanghai was Musk's absolute focus. In 2019, when Tesla's stock price fell below $200 and the company was on the verge of bankruptcy, it was China's land, bank loans, and "China speed" that built the Shanghai Gigafactory in just 357 days, pulling it back from the brink of death. Musk himself didn't hesitate to say, "Without China's support, there would be no Tesla today."

As the competition in China's new energy vehicle market intensifies, India seems to have re - entered Musk's vision.

From January to August this year, the cumulative sales of Tesla in China were 361,179 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%, and the market share was 4.8%. In the same period of the previous year, the sales were 388,000 vehicles, with a market share of 6.5%.

Meanwhile, India has been sending positive signals.

According to the website of research company Counterpoint, the sales of new - energy vehicles in India almost doubled in 2023 and are expected to increase by 66% in 2024, accounting for 4% of the total passenger - car sales. By 2030, new - energy vehicles in India are expected to account for nearly one - third of the Indian market.

According to a statement issued by the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry in March last year, as long as enterprises promise to invest at least 41.5 billion rupees (about 3.6 billion yuan) and start producing electric vehicles in local factories within three years, they can get tax incentives.

After the ministry announced this policy, Minister Piyush Goyal told reporters at a press conference, "We invite global enterprises to come to India. I believe India will become a global manufacturing center for electric vehicles, which will create jobs and improve trade."

However, while the outside world is almost unanimously bullish on Apple's prospects in India, for big - ticket consumer goods like new - energy vehicles that rely heavily on infrastructure support, they are not optimistic about Tesla in India.

Kunal Khattar, the founder of Indian venture - capital fund AdvantEdge Founders, said that due to various factors, including Musk's involvement in politics and his dramatic relationship change with US President Trump, Tesla's brand image has been severely damaged, and its attractiveness has declined sharply. "People used to think that buying a Tesla car was saving the climate, but now they don't have that feeling anymore." The political turmoil caused by Musk himself is being paid for by Tesla's sales.

With relatively immature infrastructure and unclear regional games, Tesla can only conduct tentative construction.

In August this year, one month after the opening of Tesla's first showroom in Mumbai, Tesla posted a recruitment notice on its recruitment page. The company is recruiting autonomous - vehicle operators in Delhi and Mumbai. The prototype - vehicle operators recruited this time will be responsible for long - term driving of engineering vehicles and collecting dynamic audio and camera data for testing and training purposes.

After all, according to the development trajectory of Apple's golden decade in China, it's also the time for Tesla to make a systematic layout in India.

This article is from the WeChat public account "Yuanmeihui". Author: Yuanmeihui. Republished by 36Kr with permission.