Satellite communication has yet to emerge from the "brick phone dilemma." Is there a lack of space traffic rules?
On the evening of September 24th in Rizhao, Shandong Province, the orange - red flames spurting out from the bottom of the carrier rocket instantly illuminated the sea surface. Spectators on the distant beach pressed their camera shutters one after another. The rocket slowly ascended and then accelerated towards space, sending 12 low - orbit satellites into the LEO orbit 600 kilometers above the ground.
This is an epitome of the accelerated development of China's satellite industry, especially the low - orbit constellations. However, new troubles and challenges have inevitably emerged. On the one hand, there is a commercial dilemma. At the 2025 China Radio Conference held this week, industry experts said "Today's satellite communication has not yet emerged from the dilemma of the 'brick phone' era in 1G." There is no economies of scale. It is recommended to fully develop 5G/6G NTN (Non - Terrestrial Network) and actively explore the collaborative networking and operation of satellite - terrestrial networks. On the other hand, the challenges of space traffic and frequency - orbit resource management brought about by the development of large - scale low - orbit constellations are becoming increasingly severe. The issues of orbital operation safety and space collision avoidance cannot be avoided, but there is still a lack of management rules for space traffic, and the sharing of data on satellite situation awareness platforms at home and abroad is still not smooth.
Lack of economies of scale, satellite communication has not emerged from the "brick phone dilemma"
In recent years, driven by the coordinated factors on the supply and demand sides, a boom in satellite communication has emerged, especially the rapid development of the low - orbit satellite communication industry.
From the supply side, the progress of rocket launch, integrated circuits, satellite manufacturing, and communication technologies has accelerated the rapid development of the satellite industry. For example, in satellite manufacturing, the miniaturization, modularization, and componentization of satellites have become possible, further reducing costs and shortening the development cycle. In terms of communication technology, the capabilities of modulation and coding technology and multi - antenna beamforming technology have developed rapidly, and inter - satellite link technologies based on millimeter - wave, terahertz, and laser communication have also gradually matured. From the demand side, the emergency communication needs during earthquakes and floods, as well as the daily communication needs of groups such as about 20 million fishermen, herdsmen, forest rangers, and backpackers need to be met. More importantly, in the industrial field, such as the development of the low - altitude economy, all require the support of low - orbit satellites.
Nevertheless, satellite communication still faces considerable challenges. Chen Shanzhi, the deputy general manager and chief engineer of China Information and Communication Technology Group, who has been on the list of the world's top 2% scientists for six consecutive years, summarized the development status of the satellite communication industry in ten words at the 2025 China Radio Conference: "The ideal is plump, but the reality is skinny." He made a comparison with a set of figures: At the beginning of 2025, the number of global mobile communication users was about 5.7 billion, while the number of satellite communication users was only about 10 million. Among them, Starlink had about 7 million users, Iridium about 1.8 million, Inmarsat about 160,000, and Tiantong about 2.5 million.
5.7 billion vs. 10 million reveals a fact: Satellite communication has not yet entered the "orbit" of economies of scale and still mainly meets emergency communication needs. "Even Starlink is not profitable at present. It is SpaceX's rocket launch business that has achieved profitability." Chen Shanzhi said.
Huawei has been actively promoting the development of mobile phone direct - to - satellite services. As early as 2022, it released the world's first mass - market smartphone supporting Beidou satellite messages. Shi Xiaohong, the chief satellite engineer of Huawei Terminal Company, introduced at the 2025 China Radio Conference that the cumulative sales volume of Huawei terminals supporting Beidou short - message function had exceeded 40 million, but the usage rate was low. The daily number of users only accounted for 0.1% of the cumulative sales volume of the terminals. She believed that there were mainly three reasons for the low usage rate: First, the domestic cellular network coverage is excellent; second, the capacity and bandwidth of high - orbit satellites are small, and the user scenarios are single; third, the call quality and image effect are poor, such as voice distortion.
Chen Shanzhi gave a "cruel" conclusion: Today's satellite communication has not yet emerged from the commercial dilemma of the 1G "brick phone", that is, the terminals are expensive, the tariffs are high, and the number of users is small. He believed that the fundamental problem in current satellite communication is that the large number of standards leads to system fragmentation, making it difficult to form economies of scale.
Currently, satellite communication systems are divided into narrow - band satellite systems and broadband satellite systems. The former includes Iridium, Thuraya, GlobalStar, Tiantong - 1, etc., and the latter covers DVB - RCD, IPoS, OneWeb, Starlink, AST, Qianfan Constellation, GW Constellation, etc.
"These technical systems are not compatible with each other. In sharp contrast, in mobile communication technology: In the 1G era, there were more than a dozen technical systems globally, but then they gradually converged. In the 3G era, there were 3 technical systems globally, 2 in the 4G era, and only 1 in the 5G era." Currently, satellite communication is still in a state of fragmented technical systems, making it difficult to form economies of scale.
For terminal manufacturers, the "diverse" satellite technical systems also cause troubles for themselves. "For each additional constellation system, a set of channel costs needs to be added, including the chip MODEM side and the chip RFIC transceiver link." In the long run, we hope to unify the planning into the same constellation system to reduce the cost on the terminal side." Shi Xiaohong said.
Lack of space traffic rules, the explosion of large - scale constellations causes a "flood peak"
As the satellite communication industry becomes more and more prosperous, space is becoming increasingly crowded. This is true for both the distant geosynchronous orbit and the low - Earth orbit hundreds of kilometers apart.
Lu Jingwei, the deputy general manager of China Satcom, introduced at the 2025 China Radio Conference that there are more than 600 high - orbit satellites in orbit globally, with an average of 1.7 satellites per degree of orbital position. There are even 7 satellites gathered at the most popular orbital positions. In the situation of "many satellites in orbit and dense orbital positions", it is very difficult to expand and obtain new orbital positions. He also introduced that China Satcom has built China's first high - orbit Ka - band high - throughput satellite Internet using the Zhongxing 16, Zhongxing 19, and Zhongxing 26 satellites, as well as the ground supporting system, which fully covers the entire territory of the country and key areas of the "Belt and Road". The Zhongxing 27 satellite under construction has a single - satellite capacity of 300 Gbps. Its future addition will further enhance China's high - throughput satellite Internet capabilities.
The low - orbit is also crowded. Relevant data shows that the low - Earth orbit will be saturated when the number of satellites reaches 100,000. Currently, the total number of large - scale constellation satellites with announced plans has exceeded 130,000. It is not surprising that the participating entities are competing fiercely. Naturally, the most attention - grabbing one is Starlink. Currently, the number of its satellites in orbit is 8,128, accounting for 50% of the total number of all satellites in orbit. Moreover, it has obtained permission to launch 34,000 satellites. In addition, Amazon's Kuiper constellation has 102 satellites in orbit and plans to deploy 3,326 satellites; the UK's OneWeb has 651 satellites in orbit, and its future total scale may exceed 7,000. At the same time, there are two low - orbit constellations with a scale of tens of thousands of satellites being networked in China.
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Undoubtedly, space is experiencing a "flood peak" caused by the explosion of large - scale constellations, which not only intensifies the competition for frequency - orbit resources but also significantly increases the risk of collisions between space objects, posing a considerable threat to on - orbit spacecraft, astronauts, and ground safety.
It is generally believed that a distance of 500 meters between satellites is the threshold for triggering an alarm. When the distance is less than 500 meters, the satellites need to perform collision - avoidance operations. If the orbital layers of large - scale constellations are isolated, including altitude and inclination, the collision risk between constellations will decrease. However, "There are currently no clear management and coordination rules," introduced Xu Yanbin, the senior deputy chief designer of China Satellite Network Group.
This is like two cars facing each other on a crowded road. Currently, the problem mainly relies on the car owners to negotiate and solve it by themselves, lacking effective traffic rules for guidance.
As space becomes busier, the drawbacks will become more and more prominent because collision - avoidance maneuvers will have a considerable impact on the operation of the constellations themselves. On the one hand, collision - avoidance operations will lead to fuel consumption, which means that the time for the satellite to maintain the normal orbital altitude and maneuver control will be shortened, thereby affecting the overall operating life of the satellite. On the other hand, during collision - avoidance maneuvers, the satellite needs to adjust its position and attitude, which may very likely lead to the interruption of the satellite - ground and inter - satellite links, resulting in data transmission disconnection and affecting the quality and reliability of network services. "The problem of disorder in space activities is relatively prominent. Existing treaties and guidelines do not clearly define the responsibility division, nor do they specify who should bear the maneuvering costs and potential business losses."
Taking Starlink as an example, from the end of November 2024 to the end of May 2025, the number of maneuvers for collision avoidance reached 144,000 times, a year - on - year increase of 200%, indicating that the space environment is becoming more complex.
The lack of international rules for constellation operation is not only reflected in the responsibility division of collision - avoidance maneuvers but also in the allocation and planning of orbital resources and the orbital coordination procedures and rules. For example, the International Telecommunication Union lacks standards for the upper limit of capacity and deployment priority for the deployment of multiple constellations in the same orbital plane or adjacent orbital planes. Xu Yanbin suggested that relevant parties should actively lead the formulation of international rules to meet the operation, service, and development needs of China's satellite systems.
Currently, there is not only a lack of space traffic rules but also a lack of a unified and credible information data sharing platform. For large - scale constellation satellites to accurately enter the predetermined orbit, they are very likely to pass through other constellation systems. At this time, they need to obtain information about the other satellites to avoid collisions.
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Xu Yanbin suggested that relevant parties should lead the formulation of international rules that meet the operation, service, and development needs of China's satellite systems, safeguard the country's orbital resource rights and space safety, and establish an open - to - the - outside - world orbital collision - avoidance data interaction and collaboration platform to screen and identify collision risks in advance.
Lack of mobile phone direct - to - satellite connection, satellite - terrestrial integration is the way forward
Mobile phone direct - to - satellite connection is a hot topic jointly concerned by the satellite communication and mobile communication industries at present.
In early September, SpaceX announced that it would spend $17 billion to purchase the wireless spectrum license of EchoStar, the fourth - largest mobile operator in the United States. This paves the way for SpaceX to independently launch mobile phone direct - to - satellite services.
Currently, there are several ways to achieve mobile phone direct - to - satellite communication. SpaceX adopts the "old phone + new satellite" model, that is, the user's mobile phone basically remains unchanged, and all the technical difficulties are handled by the satellite. SpaceX must obtain the mobile communication MSS frequency band to provide mobile phone direct - to - satellite services. However, the MSS frequency band has basically been allocated by the ITU, and the possibility of new allocation is almost zero. However, the ITU has made an exception: Without increasing the allocation of the MSS frequency band, the spectrum of ground mobile operators can be used for mobile phone direct - to - satellite communication, provided that no harmful interference is generated. So, in the past two years, SpaceX reached a cooperation with the mainstream US operator T - Mobile and jointly launched mobile phone - satellite services using the latter's MSS frequency band. Now, after acquiring EchoStar's wireless spectrum license, SpaceX can independently promote the mobile phone direct - to - satellite business and transform into a full - scale communication operator, which will have a certain impact on global satellite and ground communication operators.
However, in Chen Shanzhi's view, the "old phone + new satellite" model still faces huge challenges, mainly due to the high cost of satellites. "For example, a 60 - square - meter antenna array is even larger than the solar panel. The satellite launch cost is calculated by the kilogram, and this cost is very high. Moreover, problems such as Doppler frequency shift and synchronous clock are difficult to handle." Chen Shanzhi said.
Another way of mobile phone direct - to - satellite connection is the "old satellite + new phone" model, that is, the satellite remains unchanged, and the problems are left to the mobile phone. However, this model also faces challenges, mainly because the user communication rate is relatively low. Relevant Huawei personnel introduced that currently, the mobile phone direct - to - satellite service based on high - orbit satellites can only provide voice and short messages, as well as simple picture sending. Scenarios such as video calls and watching short videos cannot be realized.
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The third path is satellite - terrestrial integration. In Chen Shanzhi's view, the technical direction for the development of satellite Internet lies in "5G compatibility and 6G integration". "5G compatibility" is based on 5G technology, making targeted modifications and optimizations according to the differentiated characteristics of satellite links, so as to formulate a low - orbit satellite communication system based on 5G, maximizing the reuse of 5G technology and its economies of scale, reducing costs, and achieving differentiated competitive advantages. "6G integration" means that at the beginning of formulating the 6G standard, a unified wireless air interface, unified access, and unified authentication scheme for satellite and ground cellular communication should be constructed to support seamless handover of terminals between satellite and ground networks and cross - operator roaming.
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