Pop Mart is going to "break up" with scalpers.
Author | Xie Yunzi
Editor | Zhang Fan
At Pop Mart's 2025 interim report meeting, Wang Ning took out a "Mini LABUBU" from his coat pocket. The scene was filled with cheers, and the chairman's personal "endorsement" impressed the attendees deeply. As soon as the news was released, Mini LABUBU quickly became a hit on the internet.
Surprisingly, almost all of Pop Mart's hit products in the secondary market, including LABUBU, have seen a significant price drop.
On social media, on one hand, consumers are posting to celebrate, while on the other hand, scalpers and trendy toy investors are in despair.
The price trend on the Dewu APP shows that the average transaction price of the third - generation LABUBU has been on a downward trend in the past 90 days. As of the time of writing, the average transaction price of single unopened and full - box third - generation LABUBU has dropped by about 80% compared to the peak.
Take the recently released "Vinyl 4.0 Mini LABUBU" for example. The average transaction price of the "L" model, which has the highest sales volume on the Dewu APP, has also basically dropped by 30%.
Screenshot from the Dewu APP by 36Kr
The anxious sentiment has spread to the capital market. In the past half - month, Pop Mart's stock price has also declined to some extent.
As of September 11th at the time of writing, Pop Mart's closing price was HK$273.4 per share, a decline of more than 19.5% compared to the peak of HK$339.8 per share on August 26th.
Some analysts believe that the price drop of LABUBU in the secondary market has led to a "reversal sentiment" in the capital market. However, many institutions still maintain a "buy" rating on Pop Mart.
Zhongtai Securities said that Pop Mart's leading IPs have upward momentum and there is vast room for overseas expansion. Morgan Stanley believes that the current stock price fluctuations of Pop Mart are more affected by technical and emotional factors rather than a deterioration of the fundamentals.
On September 8th, the adjustment of the Hang Seng Index took effect. Newly included constituent stocks, including Pop Mart, may face short - term selling pressure. In addition, Morgan Stanley also analyzed that "the secondary market only accounts for a small part of the total supply and demand. Especially in the context of Pop Mart actively increasing production capacity and cracking down on scalper speculation, over - relying on this indicator may be misleading."
In other words, this price drop and stock price adjustment are deliberately done by the company. Wang Ning personally burst the wealth - creating myth in the secondary market.
"Cut out the middleman to make a profit"
On many occasions, Pop Mart has publicly stated its dependence on and maintenance of high - quality IPs.
At the 2024 earnings report meeting, Pop Mart's senior management clearly stated that they hope the company sells good products rather than "financial products". In the second half of the year, Pop Mart gradually put this concept into practice.
In August this year, Yuan Junjie, the president of Pop Mart's supply chain center, revealed that the company has increased its plush production capacity to more than 10 times that of the same period last year, and the plush production capacity in August reached about 30 million pieces.
The effect of the expanded production capacity was quickly reflected in the new products.
According to ACGx statistics, on the night of the Mini LABUBU release, all platforms sold about 710,000 orders in total within 30 minutes, and all the sold items were in stock. The previously released LABUBU 3.0 "High - Energy Ahead" series was pre - sold in 8 batches in sequence, and the sales volume on the Tmall channel alone exceeded 700,000 pieces. On July 10th, Pop Mart officially restocked on a large scale again.
The restocking and large - batch release of the two product series significantly squeezed the "speculative bubble" of LABUBU, and scalpers panicked and sold off due to the failure of their hoarding logic.
However, Pop Mart's early business model - the blind - box attribute and the extremely low probability of getting a hidden item - almost doomed the company's "love - hate relationship" with scalpers.
In consumers' perception, Pop Mart maintained the scarcity of its products through "limited releases" for a long time. The scalpers' speculative sales and sky - high premiums also indirectly stimulated consumers' purchasing desire.
However, when the popularity and influence of an IP reach a certain level, the scalpers' disorderly scramble for products will undoubtedly backfire on the company's development and the IP's own reputation.
From the perspective of the sales channels, Pop Mart, which has always opened direct - sales stores and faced consumers directly, will have its inventory and consumers' real demands intercepted by scalpers "in the first place". For various reasons, Pop Mart urgently needs to cut out the "middlemen who make a profit", and weaken the "investment attribute" brought by blind boxes as much as possible.
At this moment, Pop Mart may hope that consumers can at least buy ordinary products at a price equivalent to the regular price in the secondary market. For the extremely rare hidden items (usually with a ratio of 1:72), under the dual effects of "supply and demand" in the market, they can also reach a reasonable price range.
Ideally, Pop Mart can regain the pricing power of its products, ensure consumers' rights and the company's and IP's image, and also give scalpers and trendy toy investors a certain profit margin. For ordinary consumers, the overall premium of the products will not be overly exaggerated, and at least there will be no more accusations that Pop Mart and scalpers are in cahoots.
In other words, this price drop and stock price adjustment may be a deliberate move by the company, and Wang Ning personally burst the wealth - creating myth in the secondary market.
Still testing LABUBU's life cycle
Looking at the long - term, LABUBU's global popularity is somewhat accidental. In the few years after Pop Mart signed a contract with Hong Kong artist Long Jiasheng, LABUBU was only popular in a niche circle.
It wasn't until June 2024 that Thai star Lisa publicly promoted and introduced LABUBU on social media. Pop Mart quickly seized this wave of star effect, accelerated the opening of stores in overseas markets, and further developed the LABUBU IP image.
According to incomplete statistics by 36Kr, as of now, LABUBU has cooperated with brands such as VANS, Uniqlo, and GODIVA. However, only the collaboration with Uniqlo has gained wide popularity. Perhaps, as Wang Ning said, LABUBU's commercial value has just begun to emerge.
In addition, an interesting fact is that in the years when Pop Mart was most controversial and its stock price and market value were at the bottom of a "U - shape", one of the most frequently mentioned problems was the overly high revenue proportion of MOLLY. Today, although MOLLY has passed the baton to LABUBU, and the revenue growth rate and proportion of each major IP are quite impressive, LABUBU's strong development still poses the old problem of single - IP - driven growth for Pop Mart.
Specifically, the THE MONSTERS series, which includes LABUBU, had a revenue of up to 4.81 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for nearly one - third of Pop Mart's total revenue.
In addition, MOLLY's revenue in the same period reached 1.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 73.5%; SKULLPANDA's revenue in the same period was 1.22 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 112.4%; CRYBABY's revenue in the same period was 1.22 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 248.7%; DIMOO's revenue in the same period was 1.11 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 192.5%.
In addition to the above five IPs with revenues exceeding 1 billion yuan, 13 artist IPs of Pop Mart, such as HIRONO, Star People, PUCKY, and HACIPUPU, also achieved revenues of over 100 million yuan.
Screenshot from Pop Mart's financial report by 36Kr
It is worth mentioning that while Pop Mart is cracking down on scalpers and increasing the supply, the scarcity of high - quality IPs has been diluted. In the secondary market, the price drop of LABUBU has also affected the prices of other IP products.
The Dewu APP shows that the average transaction price of the unopened "Sweet Dreams Meteorological Bureau" series of Star People has dropped by 35% compared to the peak; the average transaction price of the hidden item "Good Luck Every Day" has dropped by 42% compared to the peak. Take the MOLLY "Pocket Friends" series as an example. As of now, the average transaction price of unopened items has dropped by 51% compared to the peak, and the hidden item "Don't Mess with Me" has dropped by 69% compared to the peak.
In the short term, these factors have put pressure on Pop Mart's stock price.
In the long term, the return of the premium of IP products to normal is definitely beneficial for real consumers to make purchases. The continuously high premium in the secondary market will instead undermine real consumers' confidence in Pop Mart.
In June this year, Pop Mart announced its entry into the film industry and will launch the animated series "LABUBU and Friends". Wang Ning also emphasized to 36Kr that whether it is MOLLY or LABUBU, once an IP image is successfully launched, it will have a long life cycle.
For Pop Mart at this moment, the real test in the future lies in whether LABUBU has the ability to tell continuous stories and whether its momentum can last until the arrival of the next hit IP.
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This article is from the WeChat official account "36Kr Finance". Authors: Xie Yunzi, Zhang Fan. Republished by 36Kr with authorization.