NIO Finds the "XPeng-style" Inflection Point

Since the release of its Q1 financial report this year, NIO has started to enter an upward trajectory. This trend accelerated significantly after the launch of the LeDao L90. As of now, NIO's stock price has doubled compared to its lowest point this year, and its market value has returned to over 100 billion yuan.

On September 2nd, NIO released its Q2 2025 financial report. Similar to the Q1 report, this new set of results was not outstanding. Revenue and gross profit margin both fell short of expectations. However, neither the performance of NIO's US stocks that night nor its Hong Kong stocks the next day could stop the upward momentum.

The key lies in the increasingly stable trend of NIO emerging from the trough. On the one hand, revenue and deliveries continue to grow while losses gradually decrease. On the other hand, the "blockbuster" effect of NIO is becoming more prominent. The LeDao L90 and the new ES8 are becoming the "two engines" driving NIO's acceleration. According to the Q3 guidance, the delivery guidance is between 87,000 and 91,000 units, and the revenue guidance is between 21.81 billion yuan and 22.88 billion yuan, both hitting record highs.

Li Bin has mentioned several times recently that achieving profitability in Q4 has become a "must - complete task." By then, the goal is to achieve a monthly delivery volume of 50,000 units. Qin Lihong also said at the recent Chengdu Auto Show that "NIO has entered a stage of gathering momentum and rising."

This is the result of NIO's reform that started in March this year, where it comprehensively "learned from XPeng": Internally, it is reflected in the all - around improvement of organizational efficiency. Externally, it is manifested in NIO becoming more rational and more down - to - earth. At previously unimaginable prices, the market competitiveness of its products has been significantly enhanced.

From the pre - sale price of less than 300,000 yuan for the LeDao L90 when it was first announced, to the starting price of less than 180,000 yuan under the Baas plan and the starting price of just over 300,000 yuan for the new ES8, the prices of NIO's two products have successively shocked the industry and gradually solidified Li Bin's status as the "God Bin."

However, similar to XPeng's dilemma of "price eroding brand power," NIO also faces high - end scrutiny. That is, do these prices truly come from the dividends brought by technological progress, or are they a desperate "price - for - volume" strategy due to survival pressure?

Although Qin Lihong emphasized twice during the media group interviews at the L90 and new ES8 press conferences that this pricing comes from the comprehensive optimization of the cost side and that "there is still a reasonable profit margin," NIO may need to wait until the Q3 financial report to fully prove itself.

Finding the "Blockbuster" Code

Just as the MONA M03 single - handedly pulled XPeng out of the quagmire, the LeDao L90 has also become a turning point for NIO. According to the sales figures released by major automakers in August, NIO jumped to the fourth place among new - energy vehicle startups with a monthly sales volume of 31,305 units. This is also the first time in dozens of months that NIO has exceeded Li Auto in monthly sales.

Undoubtedly, the LeDao L90 is the biggest contributor. It achieved a delivery volume of over 10,000 units in its first full - delivery month. The reasons for its success are, first, the price is indeed very attractive, and second, the delivery this time did not "hold it back" like the L60 did.

Although the absolute sales volume of the LeDao L90 is still quite different from that of XPeng's MONA M03 last year, its quality is no less impressive. First of all, the price range of the L90 is relatively high, so its user group is naturally smaller than that of the XPeng MONA M03.

On the other hand, the MONA M03 entered the market below 150,000 yuan with an extremely low price at that time, and its main competitors were more cost - effective brands such as BYD and Leapmotor. XPeng's "dimensionality - reduction strike" in terms of brand power and intelligent driving strength was obvious. However, the LeDao L90 was launched at the same time as strong competitors such as the Li Auto i8, the AITO M8 EV, and the Tesla Model YL, making its achievement a real hard - won victory in a highly competitive market.

More importantly, the L90 has given NIO sufficient confidence. It is not only the first model in NIO's history to achieve a monthly sales volume of over 10,000 units but also proves the correctness of its organizational reform, efficiency improvement, cost - reduction, and pricing strategies. Meanwhile, the high popularity of the L90 has led to a sharp increase in customer attention, store visits, and test - drive volumes, which has also indirectly driven the growth of the L60's sales.

Therefore, for the upcoming new ES8, NIO, having tasted the sweetness, continued to adopt the low - price strategy. If the LeDao L90 is NIO's "MONA M03," then the new ES8 is NIO's "P7+." One is a volume - driving product, and the other is not only for volume but also to fully "show off its muscles."

As the flagship product of the NIO brand, the ES8 represents the "peak of the pyramid" of NIO's technology and vehicle - manufacturing strength. According to the sales data of the past year, the average monthly sales volume of the ES8 is about 1,000 units. With the price advantage of a nearly 100,000 - yuan price cut compared to the old model, this product with stronger functions and a lower price will obviously experience a sales explosion.

Li Bin once revealed that the market enthusiasm for the new ES8 was underestimated when the plan was made, and its pre - order situation is even better than that of the LeDao L90 at the same stage.

Overall, NIO has learned the essence of XPeng. On the one hand, new products detonate the market with a low - price strategy. On the other hand, the facelifted old products "reborn" through "adding features and reducing prices." The combination of the two quickly establishes a scale effect from both high and low ends.

This is a manifestation of NIO putting aside its arrogance and becoming more "down - to - earth," and it is also regarded by the market as a transformation of NIO towards rational operation. It is foreseeable that in the next period, with the impetus of the "two engines" of the L90 and the new ES8, NIO will enter a period of explosive sales growth. This may be the "confidence" for Li Bin to set a monthly average sales volume target of 50,000 units in Q4.

The Dynamic Changes between "Long - Term" and "Short - Term"

Getting out of the "ICU" does not mean that NIO is completely out of danger. Undoubtedly, the low price is the most core factor in NIO's recent success. Behind the accelerating sales, the price is starting to surface.

According to the financial report data, the average price per vehicle of NIO is showing a downward trend. In Q1 this year, this figure dropped sharply from 278,900 yuan in the same period last year to 236,100 yuan, and continued to decline to 224,000 yuan in Q2. Of course, considering that the proportion of NIO's unique Baas battery - leasing purchase model is not low, the actual average price per vehicle including the battery may still be higher than that of Li Auto.

However, there are still several unfavorable factors, including limited revenue growth, difficulty in improving the gross profit margin, and damage to the brand image. These all pose higher requirements for both profitability and brand management.

A large part of this is due to the increasing proportion of the two sub - brands, LeDao and Firefly. However, from NIO's actions this year, the boundaries between its brands are becoming increasingly blurred. For example, the policy of not allowing LeDao car owners to enter the "NIO House" that NIO adhered to last year has been completely abolished this year.

Although NIO's sales have continued to grow this year, most of the growth comes from LeDao and Firefly. In fact, the sales of the NIO main brand have shown a downward trend compared to last year.

Compared with the 2024 ES8, the price cut of nearly 100,000 yuan for the new ES8 has caused some complaints among old car owners. However, thanks to NIO's long - term user service and brand value, more car owners have chosen to understand. After all, the survival of the brand is the most important thing. Some car owners said, "I can accept the price cut, but I can't accept the brand going bankrupt and no one providing service for my car in the end."

Another problem is that the price of the new ES8 has put the ES6 in a rather awkward situation. If most of the growth of the ES8 comes from the "order transfer" of the ES6, it will definitely not be the situation that NIO wants to see. To solve this problem, NIO may need to comprehensively adjust the pricing system of its entire product matrix.

XPeng is a case that NIO should be vigilant about. Since implementing the low - price strategy last year, "after - effects" such as the decline of brand power and the difficulty of new products to break through have begun to appear. Although NIO is still one of the undisputed high - end domestic brands, this issue still needs to be guarded against in advance.

In addition, the production capacity problem is also a sword hanging over NIO's head. The launch of the LeDao L80, originally scheduled for this year, has been postponed to next year. With limited energy, how to ensure the production capacity supply of each product line is still a test for NIO.

"Long - termism" is a belief and perseverance, while "short - termism" is pragmatism and survival. A more rational NIO still needs to continue to solve this "balancing problem."

Conclusion

Although there are many challenges, based on the effective organizational reform of NIO and the fact that its technology R & D has entered the "harvest period," the long - term positive trend for NIO is starting to take shape.

The internal reform that started in March this year shows NIO's determination different from the past. Many core senior executives have left, inefficient projects have been stopped, and Li Bin himself has taken over the supply - chain management and implemented the "million - fold cost thinking." The promotion of the "basic business unit" CBU mechanism has improved short - term execution and efficiency, such as integrating the resources of the three brands and connecting the middle and back - end systems. According to the financial report data, a typical result is also reflected in the comprehensive optimization and control of costs such as R & D expenses and sales expenses.

Thanks to the maturity of the NT3.0 platform, next year will continue to be a "product - rich year" for NIO. The management expects that products such as the ES9, ES7, and LeDao L80 will start delivery next year.

Although the progress of the charging and battery - swapping network infrastructure is not very rapid, the width and depth of this "moat" are constantly expanding, and it is expected to accumulate a certain network scale effect in the future.

With the installation of the Shenji chip, NIO will continue to reduce costs through the scale effect. Currently, the cost per vehicle of the facelifted models has been reduced by 10,000 yuan by replacing the NVIDIA Orin chip with a self - developed chip. At the same time, the product performance such as intelligent driving will also be improved. Li Bin recently said that NIO's World Model NWM has a new version plan. It is expected that after two more versions, the NWM will return to the top position in the industry.

In NIO's view, the extended - range electric vehicles have shown a year - on - year negative growth, while the pure - electric vehicle market, which still maintains a strong growth momentum, is about to enter the "golden age," and NIO has made full preparations for this.

Currently, NIO has initially solved the problem of "how to sell cars well," and the only thing it needs to focus on is still the profitability task. If NIO can successfully achieve this goal in Q4, its development will enter a new logical trajectory.

This article is from the WeChat official account "guangzi0088" (ID: TMTweb), author: Xu Zhi, published by 36Kr with authorization.