Turning water into oil is no longer enough for the robotics industry. Does it even want to "give birth" now?

In recent days, the previously sensational news that "robot mothers will be available within a year" has been clarified.

However, the entire robotics track remains incredibly bustling. In the summer of 2025, two major technology events pushed the popularity of this industry to new heights. Data shows that 271,000 people flocked to the World Robot Conference in person, and 52 million people watched the live - stream. Fifty whole - machine manufacturers showcased their "all - around skills" in tasks such as folding clothes, sorting, and fighting on the same stage.

At the World Humanoid Robot Games held during the same period, 280 teams competed in 26 events. A video of Unitree Robotics' robot running 1500 meters in 6 minutes and 34 seconds went viral on the internet. Behind the excitement, a set of data reveals a strange contrast: As of July 2025, the number of domestic humanoid robot - related enterprises has reached 834, and the number of newly registered enterprises in the first half of 2025 increased by 180% year - on - year.

However, two listed robotics companies in the Hong Kong stock market, Ubtech Robotics and Yuejiang Technology, had not achieved profitability as of 2024. Leidong Robotics and Woan Robotics also suffered losses during the same period. In total, 10 out of the 12 robotics companies that submitted listing applications in 2025 were in the red.

A question worth pondering: Does the real world really need so many robots? Of course, there has always been a technological demand. But when capital, the media, and market imagination jointly create a frenzy for robots as an "ahead - of - time demand", the industry is inevitably caught up in expectations far beyond its technological capabilities and real needs.

Capital is packaging robots as future "necessities"

It seems that the robotics track in 2025 is replicating the "thousand - group war" of Internet startups in 2015. According to IT Juzi statistics, in the first three months of 2025, 54 investment and financing transactions in Chinese embodied intelligent robots were completed, with a total scale of 6.046 billion yuan. The number of financing companies has exceeded that of the whole year of 2023.

In the primary market, Unitree Technology initiated IPO counseling with a valuation of 12 billion yuan. Zhiyuan Robotics plans to invest 2.13 billion yuan to take control of Shanghai Shangwei New Materials Co., Ltd. Deep Robotics, one of the "Six Little Dragons in Hangzhou", raised nearly 500 million yuan in a single - round financing. TusStar Navigation even received a $122 million angel + round financing led by Meituan.

It is obvious that with capital voting with real money, the valuation of the entire industry has quickly soared. It is reported that in the current robotics track, the valuation of first - tier enterprises exceeds 7 billion yuan, that of second - tier enterprises ranges from 2 billion to 5 billion yuan, and the valuations of other popular companies are also close to 2 billion yuan.

Notably, as capital continuously penetrates and expands in the robotics industry, it gradually packages non - essential technological possibilities into so - called "necessities". In fact, the birth of some robots is not necessarily due to the development needs of real life. More often, it is because capital wants to control the industry's discourse power and deliberately amplifies the anxiety in specific scenarios first.

For example, there is the surrogacy robot that has been hyped up by various marketing accounts on short - video platforms.

Undoubtedly, with the rising infertility rate, the fertility dilemma has indeed become a problem that cannot be ignored, and the real demand for assisted reproductive technology is continuously growing. Data shows that the market scale of in - vitro fertilization services in China increased from 18.91 billion yuan in 2016 to 28.2 billion yuan in 2019, and it is expected to further expand to 48.76 billion yuan in 2025.

Perhaps, seeing the huge potential of the assisted reproductive market and the traffic value behind fertility anxiety, capital tries to forcefully embed the robot concept into this demand scenario. However, the cruel reality is that the core technology supporting this concept is far from mature. It is reported that the combination of the so - called "artificial womb + robot body" still remains in the realm of science fiction.

From a technical perspective, the core difficulty of the "robot mother" lies in the "artificial womb". Currently, only limited progress has been made in animal experiments: In 2017, the "EXTEND" system at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia in the United States allowed 8 premature lambs to survive outside the body for 4 weeks. However, these lambs already had autonomous blood circulation and could not support embryo implantation.

More importantly, there are strict ethical restrictions on in - vitro human embryo culture. Globally, the general rule is that it should not exceed 14 days (some countries suggest extending it to 28 days), while human fetuses need 10 months of gestation, far exceeding the ethical red line. This means that "robot surrogacy" will not be feasible for a long time.

The premature hype of the "surrogacy robot" is not accidental.

In fact, in the entire robotics track, the operation of capital deliberately packaging future "necessities" can be seen everywhere. They often use highly topical performance scenarios as entry points and amplify the popularity through rapidly established business chains. For example, robot competitions have gained hundreds of millions of views across the network just because of the novelty of robot confrontations.

It is reported that 1000 robots, including humanoid robots, robot dogs, and robotic arms, owned by Huanmeng Technology, were on a robot exhibition tour in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Even with a 50% occupancy rate, the net profit of a single exhibition tour could reach hundreds of thousands to millions of yuan.

Capital has quickly built a mature business track based on this:

From event tickets, live - streaming copyrights, to brand sponsorships, and even the robot football game is imitating the "transfer" and "youth training" systems of human football. The GGII predicts that by 2030, the market scale of humanoid robots in China will reach 38 billion yuan, and the sales volume will soar from 4000 units to 271,200 units, with a compound annual growth rate of over 60%.

Currently, cities, enterprises, and universities across the country are hosting robot competitions.

Peeling off the bustling business shell, this is more like a trap set by capital. It props up the industry's valuation with false prosperity, attracts resources with the illusion of "necessities", and finally reaps traffic dividends and investment returns. As for when the technology will make a breakthrough and when real needs will be met, these have long been left out of this capital game.

The era of robots "serving humans" is far from coming

In 2025, the humanoid robot industry witnessed explosive growth.

It is predicted that the global sales volume of humanoid robots will exceed 10,000 units in 2025, a significant year - on - year increase of 125%. According to the statistics of the Intelligent Manufacturing Network, since 2025, the orders for humanoid robots in China have increased explosively. In addition to Tiantai Robotics, companies such as Zhiyuan Robotics, Ubtech Robotics, Junpu Intelligence, and Unitree Technology have all received humanoid robot orders.

In July, the China Tendering and Bidding Public Service Platform announced that Ubtech Robotics successfully won a 90.5115 million yuan robot equipment procurement project from Miyi Automobile, setting a new record for the highest single - order winning amount of global humanoid robot enterprises. However, no one can be sure when the large - scale "demand" will really arrive.

Especially in real life, there is still a huge supply - demand mismatch in this track.

A survey by "Yicai Business School" shows that nearly 70% of people have the idea of buying or leasing humanoid robots, and 85.6% of consumers want humanoid robots to help with household services (such as doing housework, moving things, and tutoring children) and elderly care services (such as taking care of the elderly and medical nursing). Citibank's forecast shows that by 2050, consumer - oriented scenarios such as household services and medical nursing will explode.

However, in reality, very few humanoid robots have entered ordinary households.

The current order boom is mainly supported by B - end industrial scenarios and A - end scientific research and education. Among the hundreds of robots that Ubtech Robotics plans to deliver this year, 500 are industrial robots. Universities have become important buyers. Tongji University spent 8.2566 million yuan to purchase 10 Unitree H1 - 2 robots, and more than 30 domestic universities are customers of Unitree Technology.

These orders obviously cannot meet the expectations of normal demand. Data shows that more than 50% of the "commercialized" orders are essentially for public relations display and data collection. Ultimately, the core problem of "non - practicality" lies in the sub - standard robot technology, which cannot support normal use in real scenarios.

It is reported that among the 20 running - companion robots at the Beijing Half Marathon, 14 withdrew midway due to overheating joints or balance problems, turning it into a situation where humans were serving the robots. "Zimubang" even stated bluntly that the completion rate of the robot marathon was only 30%. Undoubtedly, most robots on the market have limited functions. Some basic models can only perform simple actions such as moving horizontally and waving, far from meeting the complex service requirements in real life.

However, in the technology track, compared with the B - end and A - end, the feedback and stimulation of C - end consumer demand are often the important driving forces for technology products to move from the laboratory to the "market". The robotics field is precisely facing the absence of C - end demand. Among the customers of Unitree Technology, there are very few direct C - end consumers.

Even on e - commerce platforms, although the Unitree G1 robot priced at 99,000 yuan is marked as having sold more than 800 units, most of the actual reviews are related to robot dogs. The real consumption of humanoid robots is very limited. The few buyers mainly aim to attract traffic. They will post notes and videos such as "My experience of using the Unitree humanoid robot" and "I spent xx0,000 yuan on a Unitree robot" on social platforms such as Xiaohongshu and Douyin.

In the long run, if the robotics field cannot break the deadlock of "C - end absence", it may affect the penetration of artificial - intelligence - related technologies into other fields. It is reported that due to the extremely strong industrial demand, in 2024, the proportion of important models developed by the industrial circle exceeded 90% (it was 60% in 2023), and important large - scale AI models are basically dominated by the industrial circle.

At the same time, this track will also find it difficult to replicate the market success of AI mobile phones and consumer - grade drones. After all, the ultimate value of any technology should ultimately return to "serving humans". At present, it is obvious whether humans are serving robots or robots are serving humans.

In the journey of serving humans, today's robots have just taken their first step.

Excessive concept hype is eroding the credibility of technological innovation

In 1984, Wang Hongcheng, a driver in Harbin, claimed to have invented the "water - to - fuel" technology, saying that adding a small amount of combustible alkyne preparation to water could turn water into a cheap fuel. This claim not only appeared in various media but was also touted as the "fifth great invention after the four ancient Chinese inventions". It was not until 1997 when Wang Hongcheng was sentenced for fraud that this decade - long scam finally came to an end.

More than thirty years later, a similar scenario is still playing out in the technology circle.

Before the robot surrogacy storm, there were numerous examples such as the humorous bank customer - service robot "Jiaojiao" (actually played by a real person), the self - developed Redcore browser, the water - hydrogen car that claimed to turn water into fuel, and the fake singing and playing of "Hua Zhibing". It seems that the far - fetched farces in the technology circle have never been absent.

Although these seemingly absurd performance games are laughable, they have never deviated from the core logic of "attracting money". This capital - gathering effect has been common in history, just like during the railway mania in the 19th century and the Internet bubble in 2000, huge amounts of funds would always pour in along the path of concept hype.

Especially when capital is eager to find an outlet, carefully packaged concepts are more likely to be favored than solid technologies.

Taking "robot surrogacy" as an example, a report released by CB Insights shows that in 2024, the total number of investment and financing events in the global AI field reached 4505, a 6.35% increase from 4236 in the previous year. The total financing amount reached $100.4 billion (approximately 728.35 billion yuan), a 79.61% increase from $55.9 billion in the previous year, accounting for 69% of the global total financing amount.

Although capital still seems to be crazy about AI, in fact, the AI fever in some markets has dropped significantly compared with the past. For example, in China, in 2024, Chinese AI startups only raised $5.2 billion, accounting for only 7% of the $76.3 billion raised by US AI startups.

Perhaps, for some AI companies, they urgently need a "surrogacy robot".

From a social perception perspective, although the overall optimism towards artificial intelligence is on the rise globally, there are significant regional differences. In countries such as China (83%), Indonesia (80%), and Thailand (77%), most people believe that the benefits brought by artificial - intelligence products and services outweigh the harms.

However, in contrast, in Canada (40%) and the Netherlands (36%), the level of optimism is much lower. Perhaps for this reason, some practitioners are taking extreme measures, trying to create topics with "ahead - of - time demands" such as surrogacy that go beyond technological boundaries and even violate ethics, in an attempt to artificially raise society's expectations for artificial intelligence.

It is worth noting that the cost of a lie bursting is often borne by the entire industry.

The Nikola company, once valued at $30 billion, defrauded investors by towing trucks up the mountain and filming "autonomous driving" videos. After going public through a reverse merger in 2020, Nikola's market value quickly doubled to $30 billion, even surpassing Ford Motor. It attracted investments from giants such as General Motors and Bosch. In 2025, it went bankrupt, causing investors to lose more than $20 billion.

As of now, there are also hidden crises in the AI field. From the release of ChatGPT to July 2024, 78,612 newly registered AI companies in China have disappeared, accounting for 8.9% of the total number of new registrations during the same period. The "death list" in the past decade has expanded to 353,000. In the first half of 2024, more than 237,000 new AI companies were registered in China, while more than 80,000 fell into the dilemma of closure or bankruptcy.

From "water - to - fuel" to robot surrogacy, the tricks of technology rumors have never changed. When capital is no longer patient enough to wait for technology to mature, farces will continue to be