Apple's three-year evolution roadmap has been exposed, and the iPhone will undergo three major redesigns.

On August 25th, according to foreign media reports, Apple is refocusing its bets on its core product line - the iPhone. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Apple plans to launch three major iPhone redesigns in a row over the next three years (2025 - 2027), aiming to inject new vitality into this product that has been on the market for 17 years. The first wave of actions will kick off this September, followed by further changes in 2026 and 2027. Apple will reshape the iPhone's growth curve through new designs and features, striving to consolidate its leading position in the highly competitive market.

For a long time, the iPhone has been the pillar of Apple's revenue. In the fiscal year 2024 (ending in late September 2024), the iPhone contributed nearly half of the company's income. However, the extended replacement cycle in the global smartphone market, cautious consumer spending, and intensified competition from Chinese manufacturers have led to consecutive declines in iPhone sales over the past two quarters. Apple's intensive design and feature innovations are not only to stimulate replacement demand but also to send a clear signal to the market: there is still significant room for innovation in the iPhone.

I. The "Trilogy of iPhone Evolution"

01 iPhone Air: Focusing on Lightness and Thinness, Replacing the iPhone 16 Plus

In the fall of 2025, Apple will release the iPhone 17 series, marking a new phase of the "three major redesigns in three years." One of the highlights of the series is the iPhone Air. According to foreign media reports, this model will replace the iPhone 16 Plus and draw inspiration from the design concept of the 2008 MacBook Air, focusing on lightness and thinness. However, to achieve extreme thinness, the iPhone Air has made some trade - offs in its configuration. For example, it has relatively limited battery life, is only equipped with a single - camera system, and has eliminated the physical SIM card slot, replacing it with Apple's self - developed C1 modem chip. Overall, the engineering design and component solutions of the iPhone Air mainly serve as experiments and preparations for future product innovations.

Alongside the iPhone Air, the iPhone 17, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max will also be launched. The overall appearance is similar to the iPhone 16 series, but the Pro models will feature a new back industrial design, an upgraded camera system, and a new orange color option; the iPhone Air will offer a light blue version. Although these changes are not revolutionary, the Pro series is still expected to be the preferred choice for most consumers due to its performance and stable market performance.

More notably, Apple will further integrate generative AI features into iOS, covering application scenarios such as personalized assistants, photo and video generation, and automatic email and message replies. It is reported that Apple is collaborating with companies such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, and some tasks will directly call external models, such as Google's Gemini or OpenAI's ChatGPT. Compared with the aggressive strategies of Samsung and Google, Apple emphasizes security and privacy more, hoping to strengthen its brand value through this differentiated positioning.

02 Apple's First Foldable iPhone, in a Book - Style Form

In 2026, Apple plans to launch its first foldable iPhone, codenamed V68. This device adopts a book - style design similar to the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold, and its unfolded size is close to that of a small tablet. In terms of configuration, the device is equipped with four cameras (one front - facing, one on the inside, and two on the back) and uses Touch ID instead of Face ID to adapt to various usage scenarios in the folded form. It will also be equipped with a more powerful self - developed C2 modem chip and use improved In - cell touch screen technology to alleviate the common crease problem of foldable screens while enhancing the display effect and touch accuracy.

It is reported that the initial models will only be available in black and white, and suppliers plan to start mass production in early 2026, with the official release expected in the fall. This product is more targeted at high - end users and those who focus on the video experience.

03 The 20th - Anniversary Special Edition: iPhone 20 with a Full - Curved Glass Design

In 2027, on the 20th anniversary of the iPhone's launch, Apple plans to introduce a new model codenamed "iPhone 20." This device will feature a full - curved glass design, ending the straight - edge style that has been in use since 2020. It will also be paired with iOS 26's new "Liquid Glass" interface, which features rounded edges and translucent layering of interface elements, creating a more coherent visual effect. The unified design of hardware and software allows the physical edges of the phone to blend more naturally with the screen display, and it is regarded as an important appearance innovation since the iPhone X.

II. The iPhone Remains the Center of the Ecosystem, with Comprehensive Upgrades to Accessories

To keep the iPhone at the "center of the ecosystem," Apple is accelerating its actions. The tenth - generation Apple Watch is rumored to be integrated with the iPhone's AI features. It can not only display health data but also automatically generate personalized health reports and even directly connect to medical services. The AirPods Pro will no longer be just headphones; it may be equipped with heart rate monitoring, and Apple is also experimenting with real - time translation and spatial interaction, turning the headphones into an "extended organ" of the iPhone. Meanwhile, a HomePod with a built - in screen is on the way, and it will be equipped with a new Charismatic home system, clearly targeting the smart home markets of Amazon and Google.

In the field of mixed reality, although the sales of the Vision Pro have not met expectations, Apple is developing a lighter and more affordable version, which is expected to be released in 2026. The deep interconnection between the iPhone and the Vision series is regarded as the next - stage focus of Apple's ecosystem, aiming to enhance the user experience through spatial computing and AI. In addition, Apple is also researching and developing screenless smart glasses, desktop robots, large - sized foldable iPads, convertible Mac devices, and home security camera systems. These new product categories will further enrich the diversity of Apple's ecosystem.

III. The Service Business Nears $100 Billion but is Facing a "Regulatory Test"

Beyond hardware, the service business is another pillar of Apple's revenue growth. Services such as the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, and Apple TV+ have been growing steadily over the past five years. In the fiscal year 2024, the revenue from these services was close to $100 billion, accounting for nearly a quarter of the company's total revenue. However, regulatory pressure is threatening the profitability of this segment. In the EU, the Digital Markets Act requires Apple to open its App Store, allowing sideloading of apps and third - party payment systems; in the United States, the Department of Justice is investigating whether Apple's App Store commission model constitutes a monopoly. In addition, the search cooperation agreement with Google (which brings Apple approximately $20 billion in revenue annually) may be terminated due to antitrust lawsuits.

To address these challenges, Apple has launched new services such as AppleCare One (a $20 - per - month service that covers the protection of three devices) and has raised the price of Apple TV+ from $9.99 to $12.99. In 2026, Apple plans to launch an AI - based Apple Health+ subscription service, providing nutrition planning and medical advice to further tap into the potential of service revenue. Analysts expect that Apple will offset the losses caused by regulations by adjusting the App Store fee structure and developing new subscription services.

IV. The Loss of Core Members from the AI Team, and Apple Seeks External Cooperation

However, Apple is facing a significant problem during its transformation: the accelerated loss of talent. In the past two months, Apple's AI team has lost six core members in a row, including Frank Chu, the director of AI infrastructure, and Ruoming Pang, the head of the model team. More notably, almost all of them have jumped to Meta's newly established AI laboratory. Many engineers privately complain that Apple is too slow in the field of AI. "Everything has to pass the privacy and security checks first," resulting in products being launched later than those of competitors. Coupled with the cancellation of the electric vehicle project in 2024, many hardware engineers have chosen to leave, making the "brain drain" at Apple more obvious.

To address this issue, Apple is actively collaborating with external AI companies. For example, it is negotiating with Google to customize the Gemini model to enhance Siri's functionality, and it is also integrating Anthropic's Claude technology into internal tools and developer platforms (such as Xcode). How to re - energize the team in AI and hardware innovation and retain top - notch talent will be a key challenge for Apple in the coming years.

At a critical stage when the global technology industry is transitioning to AI and mixed reality, Apple's three - year iPhone redesign plan may seem conservative, but it is actually a high - risk bet. If the iPhone Air, the foldable iPhone, and the curved - glass iPhone 20 can successfully trigger a replacement boom and form synergy with AI services and new devices, Apple may recreate the growth miracle of a decade ago. However, if the innovations fail to impress consumers, or if the regulatory pressure and talent loss problems worsen, the iPhone may turn from a growth engine into a heavy burden.

Investors are currently cautiously optimistic about Apple's strategy. Since 2025, Apple's stock price has risen by more than 12%, partly due to market expectations for AI integration. However, Wall Street analysts warn that the real test lies in whether Apple can "create another miracle" in a saturated market. As Mark Gurman, a technology journalist from Bloomberg, said: "2025 is not a revolutionary year for the iPhone, but it lays the foundation for major changes in 2026 and 2027. This is an exciting time for iPhone fans."

This article is from "Tencent Technology", author: Wuji. Republished by 36Kr with permission.