Out-of-warranty electric vehicles are propping up a market worth hundreds of billions. Is electric vehicle repair a good business?
In recent years, the proportion of new energy vehicles in passenger cars has been continuously rising. According to CCTV News, as of the end of 2024, the number of new energy vehicles in the country had reached 31.4 million, and the installation volume of power batteries had led the world for many years. Previously, according to regulations from relevant departments such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, since 2016, passenger car manufacturers have been required to provide a warranty of at least 8 years or 120,000 kilometers for the three core components of the battery, motor, and electronic control system.
This means that the first batch of new energy vehicles that enjoyed the policy have gradually entered the "post - warranty period", and more and more vehicle repair orders will go outside the official repair shops. The boom in the new energy after - sales market is coming with the "post - warranty electric vehicles".
According to the prediction of Cinda Securities, the scale of the after - sales maintenance market for new energy vehicles will reach 300 billion yuan in 2025, of which the proportion of "three - electric" maintenance will exceed 15%, corresponding to a market scale of about 45 billion yuan.
However, when facing "post - warranty electric vehicles", should car owners replace the battery or the car? With multiple parties entering the market, who can control the "three - electric" repair rights? With a shortage of service talents, can the automotive aftermarket catch this wave of "unexpected fortune"?
01 The First Year of Post - Warranty Business, the Problem of Supply - Demand Imbalance Intensifies
Looking back at the 8 years from 2017 to 2024, the sales volume of new energy passenger cars changed significantly: In 2017, the cumulative sales volume was 550,000; in 2018, it was 1.05 million; in 2019, it was 1.08 million; in 2020, it was 1.13 million. The growth during this period was relatively gentle.
In 2021, there was a huge change. The sales volume soared to 2.91 million, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 100%, and the market began to grow explosively. In the following three years, 5.31 million were sold in 2022, 7.28 million in 2023, and it climbed to 10.74 million in 2024.
Image source: Auto Service World
It can be seen that even if the warranty period is clearly set at 8 years, at least 500,000 new energy vehicles will be out of the warranty scope this year. Moreover, it is expected that at least over 1 million new energy vehicles will go out of warranty every year after that. 2025 is expected to be the first year of the post - warranty business for new energy vehicles.
However, the contradiction between the rapid expansion of the scale of post - warranty electric vehicles and the shortage of professional service supply is intensifying.
According to the statistics of the China Automobile Maintenance Industry Association, there are about 400,000 enterprises related to the maintenance of fuel vehicles in China, but there are only 20,000 - 30,000 enterprises for new energy vehicle maintenance. A survey of 10,000 repair shops by the F6 Data Research Institute further revealed the capacity gap: only 2% of the repair shops, that is, 200 shops, have the ability to repair the three - electric system.
As a result, the imbalance between supply and demand directly drives up the maintenance cost.
Currently, the new energy maintenance business is mainly concentrated on the three - electric maintenance. Among them, the failure rate of the motor is relatively low. The electronic control system mainly focuses on software detection and electrical appliance maintenance. The core problem lies in battery repair and replacement. It is understood that the proportion of battery cost in the whole vehicle of current mainstream new energy vehicle brands varies significantly, with the lowest being 30% and the highest reaching 70%, generally between 40% and 50%.
According to the data from the China Insurance Automotive Safety Index, the average parts - to - whole ratio of the power battery packs of new energy vehicles is 50.96%, which means that the single - piece price of the battery pack has exceeded half of the value of the whole vehicle. Notably, in the pure - electric vehicle models in the price range of 0 - 100,000 yuan, this ratio is as high as 64.49%.
Image source: China Insurance Automotive Safety Index
In this situation, the cost of battery replacement is very likely to exceed the residual value of the vehicle, resulting in an obvious cost inversion phenomenon. This has also discouraged many car owners from replacing the battery.
So, can the battery be repaired? Some engineers in the industry said that with the progress of technology, the risk of repair itself has been significantly reduced. However, successful repair requires two key prerequisites: one is to have spare parts of the same model for replacement, and the other is to carry out the repair in a regular professional repair channel.
This is because the battery technology of new energy vehicles is evolving rapidly, and the performance difference between new and old spare parts may directly affect the overall performance of the battery. At the same time, battery repair has strict requirements for the operating environment. For example, it needs to be operated in a dust - free workshop, and the temperature and humidity of the workshop need to be precisely controlled to prevent the internal components from being corroded due to high humidity after the battery pack is opened.
Against this background, the market pattern of three - electric maintenance is being reshaped, and a diversified repair network with vehicle manufacturers, battery manufacturers, insurance companies, and independent third - parties as the main players has been formed.
02 Four Major Forces Compete for the "Three - Electric Repair Rights"
Facing the after - sales maintenance market for new energy vehicles worth hundreds of billions of yuan, four major factions have entered the market one after another, each building its own technological barriers and business maps, trying to gain the core voice in the industrial change.
Specifically:
Vehicle manufacturers hold on to the technological closed - loop: BYD has built a "regional maintenance center" covering the whole country, firmly locking battery repair within its own system through a closed "repair - replacement - recycling" chain; Tesla and Li Auto bind users with direct - operated electromechanical centers and long - term extended warranty policies.
This monopoly on core technology allows vehicle manufacturers to still dominate the after - sales market, but it also leads to the lack of bargaining power for car owners when replacing or repairing battery modules, and the service premium is much higher than that of third - parties.
Battery manufacturers launch a reverse breakthrough: CATL, with 17 million installed units as the fulcrum, has launched the "Ningjia Service" three - level system (direct - operated center - authorized store - repair center). As of February 2025, the domestic network of "Ningjia Service" had a total of 607 stores, including 12 battery repair centers, covering major cities.
Relying on its scale advantage, CATL's business is extending from the B - end supply chain to the C - end service. However, the lack of unified standards for remanufactured batteries has made it difficult for refurbished batteries to be circulated in the market, becoming a key bottleneck restricting its expansion.
Independent third - parties grow in the cracks: Green Power Workshop quickly penetrates the sinking market through the franchise model, with more than 1,000 stores; Xunwei Technology realizes technical empowerment for hundreds of stores with its self - developed diagnostic software; Electric Bike Flash Repair innovatively adopts the "shop - in - shop" model, embedding itself in 4S stores such as Zhongsheng Group to share sheet metal and painting resources.
However, although these institutions have keenly captured the maintenance demand overflowing from the vehicle manufacturer's authorized system, they still face dual constraints of qualification and technology.
In 2024, a court case in Jiading District, Shanghai, attracted attention: Two repairmen, "Big Liu and Little Liu", were convicted of "damaging computer information systems" for "unlocking" two locked new energy vehicle battery packs. This further raised concerns among third - party after - sales institutions about the risks of new energy vehicle maintenance. In addition to legal risks, at the technical level, many new energy vehicle manufacturers also restrict vehicle maintenance in third - party repair shops through technical means.
Different from the proactive actions of the previous three parties, insurance companies enter the market passively.
You know, the high maintenance cost will trigger a chain reaction, and the insurance market will bear the brunt. Data shows that the average risk cost of new energy vehicles is 2.2 times that of fuel vehicles, and the average comprehensive cost - rate in the industry is about 107%. That is to say, for every 100 yuan of insurance premiums collected by insurance companies, they have to pay out 107 yuan.
According to the information jointly released by the China Association of Actuaries and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission Information Center, in 2024 alone, the insurance industry in China suffered a total loss of up to 5.7 billion yuan in underwriting new energy vehicle business, and there were 137 vehicle models with a claim settlement rate exceeding 100%. This means that it is almost impossible for insurance companies to make money as long as they underwrite models in these vehicle series.
Under the pressure of claim settlement costs, insurance giants have to build their own maintenance networks.
For example, Bangbang Auto Service under PICC has launched the "Zhongbao Zhixiu" chain system, providing one - stop services such as three - electric maintenance and accident repair. Currently, the flagship store in Beijing has been put into operation. In addition, the Xiamen branch of PICC has also cooperated with the local 4S group, Xiamen Cinda Guomao Automobile Group, to jointly build a new energy vehicle customer service center integrating three - electric maintenance, comprehensive sheet metal and painting center, and damage assessment center.
It is also worth mentioning that automotive service chain brands such as "Mao Hu Gou" (Tmall Auto Service, Tuhu Auto Service, JD Auto Service) and Michelin Autocare are deploying three - electric business with the "1+N" model. However, at present, these chain brands generally adopt the "fuel - electric integration" model, and their new energy business mainly provides services such as tire replacement, car washing, beauty modification, and maintenance for C - end customers. The large - scale implementation of three - electric special - repair business remains to be seen.
03 Multiple Conflicts Need to Be Resolved, the Road to "Free Vehicle Repair" Is Long
As mentioned before, the high maintenance cost of new energy vehicles makes many new energy vehicle owners hope to retain the right to choose the maintenance channel.
On the one hand, it is to avoid price discrimination caused by service monopoly. If maintenance can only be arranged by vehicle manufacturers, consumers will lose the right to bargain. Some car owners are worried that even for minor scratches, they may be forced to pay high fees at official repair points.
On the other hand, under the pressure of competition from third - party maintenance channels, 4S stores will be forced to improve their prices and service quality. Once car owners have no other channels to choose from, it remains a question whether vehicle manufacturers will pay attention to their reasonable expectations regarding maintenance duration and service quality.
The reason why new energy vehicle manufacturers hold on to technological barriers and are reluctant to cooperate with third - party maintenance is not only for economic considerations but also for concerns about liability risks.
You know, the "free vehicle repair" for fuel vehicles is due to the universality of machinery. That is, components such as the engine and gearbox can be disassembled and detected without the authorization of vehicle manufacturers. Experienced third - party maintenance personnel can accurately identify problems without relying on the background data of vehicle manufacturers.
However, new energy vehicles are dominated by electronics and electrical appliances. The three - electric systems of each brand are different, and the inspection equipment also has specific requirements. For example, the electronic control unit needs the authorization of the vehicle manufacturer's background to unlock parameters, and unauthorized rewriting may trigger charge - discharge protection; the battery pack must be decoded with original equipment, otherwise, the thermal management safety logic will be damaged.
That is to say, non - official operations may damage the original safety logic of the system. Once an accident occurs, vehicle manufacturers need to prove that it is not a design defect. However, if third - party maintenance is allowed, it will be impossible to distinguish whether it is a battery defect, data misjudgment, or improper maintenance.
In this way, the demands of multiple parties such as car owners, vehicle manufacturers, and third - party repair shops are at a stalemate. The "diversified" competition in the new energy vehicle maintenance market and the "free vehicle repair" for car owners seem to be in a deadlock.
Fortunately, the policy level has taken action to try to break this deadlock.
In January this year, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Transport, and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Deepening Reforms, Strengthening Supervision, and Promoting the High - Quality Development of New Energy Vehicle Insurance" (hereinafter referred to as the "Guiding Opinions"), which mainly proposed to reasonably reduce the maintenance and use costs of new energy vehicles.
The "Guiding Opinions" pointed out that efforts should be made to reduce maintenance costs, enrich the supply channels and types of maintenance parts for new energy vehicles, and encourage new energy vehicle enterprises and power battery enterprises to improve the maintenance economy of power batteries through technological opening. At the same time, the capacity building of new energy vehicle maintenance enterprises should be strengthened, the maintenance and claim settlement standards should be established and improved, and the standardization level of vehicle maintenance and claim settlement should be improved.
In addition, Zhang Xuehui, the secretary - general of the Information Branch of the China Automobile Maintenance Association, said in an interview with the media that vehicle manufacturers' restrictions on car owners' maintenance rights through user agreement terms (such as "private disassembly of the battery is regarded as giving up the warranty") are "overbearing terms". Some lawyers also believe that vehicle manufacturers often defend themselves on the grounds of "safety" and "technical compliance", but the "Anti - Monopoly Law" prohibits the abuse of market dominance to restrict competition.
In general, the new energy maintenance market has not fully entered the dividend period. Therefore, neither battery factories, vehicle manufacturers, third - party maintenance stores, nor insurance companies have formed a clear development system. However, it is foreseeable that this will be a battleground where multiple parties' interests are intertwined.
This article is from the WeChat public account "DoNews" (ID: ilovedonews), author: Wen Lin, published by 36Kr with authorization.