So soon? Will Tesla Optimus be available for sale in China by the end of the year? Unitree starts a price war with a price of 39,900 yuan.

At 17:02:11 on July 27th, Beijing time, "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" issued a "Science and Technology Innovation Board Telegram" stating:

People related to Tesla revealed that currently, Tesla's third-generation robot (Optimus 3) is being tested at a US factory. It is expected to be launched in the Chinese consumer (C-end) market in 2025 and will enter consumer scenarios such as households.

This news is a bit sudden. The latest information about Tesla's Optimus 3 came from a very formal source, the Q2 earnings conference call three days ago.

During Tesla's Q2 earnings conference call on July 24th, Elon Musk said:

A prototype of Optimus 3 could appear by the end of this year. Now, its design is being improved, and the version currently in use is similar to Optimus 2, around version 2.5. He also said that it is reasonable to achieve an annual production target of one million units within the next five years.

At this point, questions arise.

There were expectations for Optimus to enter China, and mass - producing it in China has always been a goal pursued by Tesla in Shanghai. However, the news that it will enter the Chinese consumer market in 2025 is far beyond expectations.

Why wasn't such a significant and unexpected piece of news revealed by Elon Musk during the Q2 conference call?

It should be noted that Tesla's Q2 earnings report was extremely poor. Almost all indicators declined, including the most important revenue scale and net profit, which both dropped by double - digits.

Elon Musk must remember sleeping beside the Model 3 production line at the Fremont factory in California and the pressure Tesla faced from Wall Street's short - selling frenzy at that time. It was China that stepped in and helped Tesla build and start production at its Shanghai factory in just one year at an unprecedented speed, saving Tesla from the brink and helping Elon Musk become the world's richest man to this day.

Elon Musk must know that a piece of news about Optimus being launched in the Chinese consumer market and entering consumer scenarios such as households will have an impact on Tesla that is no less significant than the localization of Model 3 in China, and may even exceed it.

Why didn't Elon Musk announce such important news during the conference call? It should be noted that six top executives, including Elon Musk, attended the conference call, which was a very rare occurrence, indicating the great pressure Tesla was facing. Its stock price dropped by more than 8% at the close of the first trading day after the earnings report was released.

For Tesla and Elon Musk, Optimus really needs the Chinese market. The Chinese market also needs Tesla's Optimus, just as it needed Tesla's new - energy vehicles back then to stimulate and drive the development of the Chinese industrial chain and the maturity of the supply chain.

The robotics field is a larger arena than the new - energy vehicle industry. When combined with AI, it can unleash powerful productivity. This is another high - ground in the competition between China and the United States. Optimus will definitely enter China and will likely be localized, probably in Shanghai.

Chinese robotics companies are also developing rapidly, and a number of excellent robotics or embodied intelligence companies have emerged, including Zhipu Robotics, which spent 2.1 billion yuan to acquire A - share listed company Shangwei New Materials, and Unitree Technology, which has just entered the guidance stage for listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.

There are also companies like Ubtech Robotics (the first humanoid robot company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange), Geek+ Robotics, Dobot, etc. that are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. There are also a large number of startups in the primary market that are frequently raising funds, including Fourier Intelligence, Zhongqing Robotics, Qianxun Intelligence, Galaxy Universal, Zhujidongli, Xinghaitu, Independent Variable Robotics, Tashizhihang, etc.

Two days before the news that Tesla will enter the Chinese consumer market for household use at the end of 2025, on July 25th, Unitree Technology announced the launch of its third - generation humanoid robot, R1, with a starting price of 39,900 yuan, much cheaper than the 99,900 - yuan G1. R1 is also the cheapest bipedal humanoid robot to date. According to the introduction, R1 has 26 joints throughout its body, integrates voice and image multi - modal large models, weighs only 25 kg, and supports self - modification.

In Elon Musk's vision, the price of Optimus is $20,000. When it comes to China, it can't compete on price and has to compete on technology. Comparing R1 with Optimus is somewhat like comparing a local new - energy vehicle with Model 3 or Model 2 (the rumored budget model).

Of course, in the new - energy vehicle market, Model 2's competitor is definitely not a local new - energy vehicle. So, maybe Optimus' competitor won't be R1 either. Chinese robotics companies will bring out a large number of humanoid robots to compete with Optimus.

This is the competitive landscape that humanoid robots will inevitably face, a much more intense one than the new - energy vehicle market.

This article is from the WeChat public account "Vehicle Intelligence" (ID: invehc), author: Michael Yuan, published by 36Kr with permission.