Getting involved in the pure - electric full - size six - seater segment, will Model Y become a sacrificial lamb?

"This year, the large six-seater SUV market has instantly become a fiercely competitive red ocean."

To be honest, after experiencing the first half of the year and looking at the fiercely competitive segments in the Chinese auto market, the opening sentence of this article perfectly captures my feelings.

If in the past, the large six-seater SUV market was basically dominated by Li Auto and AITO, then as we step into 2025, with more and more players flocking in, the competition has become extremely intense.

As an onlooker, I once roughly counted that there will be no less than 15 new products launched in this 365-day period. Of course, most of them will focus on extended-range and plug-in hybrid powertrains, and there will also be some all-electric large six-seater SUVs.

What's interesting is that in July, with the successive marketing campaigns of the LeDao L90 and the Li Auto i8, and their intense competition in multiple aspects, they have quickly caught the attention of a large number of end consumers. Over the past weekend, I visited the showrooms of these two new energy vehicle startups, and both were crowded with people.

Previously, I always thought that due to various reasons, the all-electric large six-seater SUV was more like a false proposition. But now, looking at the increasing popularity and attention of the LeDao L90 and the Li Auto i8, I gradually realize that the user demand for this category is much higher than expected.

Against this backdrop, another move in July is worth noting: Tesla suddenly introduced the Model Y L.

Yes, you read that right. As the absolute sales champion in the mid-size SUV segment, the Model Y has entered the all-electric large six-seater SUV market by extending its body.

And the question that concerns me the most is, "Do you think it will end up as a failure?"

"1 + 1 = 1.5" Might Be the Best Outcome

Actually, the entry of the Model Y L was predictable.

There were already rumors about it in the first half of the year. Now, combined with Tesla's official Weibo post saying "See you in autumn," we can basically confirm that this all-electric large six-seater SUV will most likely enter the market in September.

Last week, the Model Y L was listed in the latest Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) catalog, finally revealing its mystery.

In terms of overall dimensions, compared with its current siblings on the market, the Model Y L has been comprehensively "beefed up." Its length reaches 4,976 mm, width 1,920 mm, height 1,668 mm, and wheelbase even reaches 3,040 mm, exceeding that of the "big brother" Model X.

There are also slight improvements in performance parameters. It is standard with a 78.4 kWh ternary lithium battery produced by LG and is equipped with front and rear dual motors with a total power of 340 kW, slightly higher than the 331 kW of the Model Y Long Range AWD version.

Meanwhile, with the extended wheelbase, the sloping rear roofline of the Model Y L has become more gentle, mainly to ensure the headroom for third-row passengers to the maximum extent.

After all, referring to the seven-seater version of the Model Y currently on sale in North America, its performance in this aspect can only be described as "disastrous." From Tesla's perspective, if it wants to compete in the highly competitive Chinese all-electric large six-seater SUV market, it must not repeat the same mistake.

In addition, according to relevant leaks, the Model Y L will have a new seat design. The four independent seats in the second and third rows can be fully flattened and folded. The second-row independent seats can move forward and backward, and the third-row seats are designed to sink, ensuring ample headroom. It also has an electromagnetic damping adjustable suspension...

Although the authenticity of these leaks needs to be verified, considering all the spoilers we've learned so far, including the basic parameters from the MIIT, we have to admit that the Model Y L is one of Tesla's few sincere works in recent years, especially considering its reputation for being stingy in product iteration and often delaying product launches.

It has indeed brought a certain degree of "freshness" to end consumers who are spoilt for choice.

However, it's a bit disappointing that shortly after the Model Y L was unveiled, I asked two friends who had made small deposits for the LeDao L90 and the Li Auto i8 respectively if they would change their minds. The answers were all negative.

"According to Tesla's logic, the Model Y L will be priced at least over 300,000 yuan. Compared with the Model Y, apart from the changes in seat layout and interior space, it is likely to still be stingy with comfort features. How can it compete with the LeDao L90, which offers great value for money?"

"In the field of large six-seater SUVs, Li Auto is the pioneer of all brands. The overall experience of the Li Auto i8 has been further improved, with features like a refrigerator, a large TV, and comfortable seats all included. The Model Y L is really in a tough spot this time."

These two real feedbacks clearly show the situation it will face.

Undoubtedly, in the mid-size SUV market, thanks to favorable timing, location, and human factors, the Model Y has a huge appeal and influence.

However, in the large six-seater SUV market, which emphasizes family travel and practicality, especially without the support of a "fuel tank," and having no advantages in terms of overall dimensions and feature richness, and being unlikely to lower its price, the future of the Model Y L in China is far from clear.

Even with the help of Tesla's brand halo, it probably won't end up as a complete failure, but its contribution in terms of sales is doomed to be limited.

If it can achieve a "1 + 1 = 1.5" effect when combined with the Model Y, it would already be a very good outcome. In contrast, the worst-case scenario would be "1 + 1 = 1," meaning there would be serious internal competition between the two models.

Looking deeper, the core pain point is that "as Tesla's generational leading advantage in product has been completely eroded by domestic brands, this American new energy vehicle company has shifted from aggressive expansion to difficult defense."

It's a bit too naive to expect an all-electric large six-seater SUV to easily regain lost ground.

Don't Easily Venture into the All-Electric Large Six-Seater SUV Market

"A respectable all-electric six-seater SUV is coming. Consumers interested in all-electric six-seater SUVs in the 200,000 - 300,000 yuan price range can look forward to it."

"With the continuous improvement of charging and battery swapping infrastructure and product technology innovation, the all-electric era of large SUVs has arrived."

Interestingly, shortly after Tesla officially announced that the Model Y L would "arrive in autumn," Li Bin, the founder of NIO, and Li Xiang, the founder of Li Auto, both sent congratulatory messages.

At first glance, it seems like they are welcoming a strong competitor into the all-electric large six-seater SUV market. In essence, they are promoting their own upcoming new models.

In my opinion, if the Model Y is an insurmountable mountain when it comes to building a mid-size all-electric SUV, then the Model Y L is more like a much lower hill in the all-electric large six-seater SUV market.

In other words, both the Li Auto i8 and the LeDao L90 have the strength to compete with it head-on.

From an industry perspective, with three star all-electric players quickly entering the large six-seater SUV market at the beginning of the second half of the year, what does this prove? The answer points directly to the surging user demand.

Take the two friends mentioned earlier as an example. They were both owners of extended-range vehicles before. Now, after experiencing the convenience of new energy vehicles and considering the change in the number of people they travel with, they have firmly chosen the Li Auto i8 and the LeDao L90, two comparable and feature-rich new models.

It seems that the all-electric large six-seater SUV market is at a turning point. However, I have the opposite view, and the title of this section is a piece of advice for most automakers.

Indeed, both the Li Auto i8 and the LeDao L90 currently have the potential to be bestsellers. On the one hand, it's because of their strong product capabilities; on the other hand, these two all-electric large six-seater SUVs are backed by the two strongest self-built energy replenishment systems in the industry, which is an important guarantee for their entry into the market.

Li Auto has nearly 2,900 supercharging stations, including the newly completed "nine vertical and nine horizontal" high-speed supercharging network. Relying on NIO's NIO Power, LeDao also enjoys the great convenience of "charging, battery swapping, and upgrading" and has the confidence to travel anywhere in the country.

Actually, when buying an all-electric large six-seater SUV, range anxiety is inevitable. A well-established self-built energy replenishment system can undoubtedly minimize this anxiety. Especially in highway service areas, once a charging station is successfully established, it becomes a scarce strategic resource.

Anyway, the simple truth is, "To sell high-end all-electric vehicles, infrastructure must come first."

In the case of all-electric large six-seater SUVs, the dependence on infrastructure will be even more prominent. The reason why the Model Y L dares to enter the market is also thanks to Tesla's supercharging system.

For most automakers without self-built energy replenishment systems, it's better to focus on extended-range large six-seater SUVs with large batteries...

Even if they want to launch an all-electric version, they should understand that it's just a supplement to the same vehicle series and should not invest too much energy in it. For example, the AITO M8 is a good example. The extended-range version became a bestseller first, and then the all-electric version was launched. The priority is very clear.

As this article is coming to an end, I'd like to say that "the growing Chinese auto market has led to different rules in each segment. In the next long period, extended-range vehicles will still dominate the large six-seater SUV market. However, as brands like Tesla, Li Auto, and NIO enter the all-electric segment, the trend is quietly changing."

The threshold for selling new models in this category is still high, so don't be reckless and take risks.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Automotive Commune" (ID: iAUTO2010), author: Cui Liwen. It is published by 36Kr with permission.