After losing the global sales crown, Tesla is going to counterattack.

01. Tesla Courts Family Users

In the second half of 2024, there were rumors in the market that Tesla would launch a 7-seater Model Y in 2025, but few people took it seriously at that time. On the evening of July 16th, Tesla finally officially announced that it would launch the Model Y L this fall, but it's a 6-seater version.

The new vehicle product publicity list in the "Announcement of Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products" (Batch 397) released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that the Model Y L adopts a three-row, six-seat layout. The body length is nearly 5 meters, and the wheelbase exceeds 3 meters, which is 75 millimeters longer than the Model X.

The most obvious change compared with the current 5-seater refreshed Model Y is the rear logo of the Model Y L. There are two slashes next to the "Y".

Based on information from multiple media outlets, the Model Y L will be produced at Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory and will be mainly sold in the Chinese market. Some industry insiders predict that the price of the Model Y L will be around 400,000 yuan.

Actually, as early as 2021, Tesla launched a 7-seater Model Y in the North American market, which required an additional $3,000 for the option. However, due to the extremely cramped third-row space, it was widely criticized, and finally, Tesla removed this option at the beginning of this year.

However, according to the information currently released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the third-row space of the Model Y L should be optimized. The Model Y L is 44 millimeters taller than the Model Y. From the comparison of the side photos of the body, the sloping roof of the former is less prominent, and the tailgate is significantly raised and enlarged, making it look more solid and substantial visually.

Just one month before Tesla officially announced the Model Y L, it sent an email to potential customers in the North American market, stating that the Model Y was ready for a longer wheelbase, more space, and 7 seats.

Whether in the Chinese market or the North American market, most SUVs are used as family cars. This time, Tesla's choice to sacrifice a bit of technological sense for more space is a gesture to family users.

Goldman Sachs analysis shows that the Model Y L will have a positive impact on Tesla's growth prospects. Although this model may have a certain impact on the sales of the Model Y and Model X, it is expected to expand Tesla's influence in key mid-size SUV markets such as the United States, Europe, and China.

Moreover, the SUV market in China is still very active. The national automobile production and sales data provided by the China Passenger Car Association shows that in June 2025, the cumulative retail sales of the domestic SUV market reached 1.04 million vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 7.3% and a year-on-year increase of 16.3%.

In addition to the above 6-seater SUV, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also publicized another Tesla model, the "Model 3+".

Remember in August 2019, Tesla removed the long-range rear-wheel-drive version of the Model 3 from the domestic market. But according to a report by Cailian Press, Tesla China will "revive" the longest-range version of the Model 3. The price of this model is around 270,000 yuan, and it is expected to be launched as early as September, which is expected to become Tesla's current longest-range model.

02. Sales Anxiety

There was a time when there were only two types of new energy vehicles in the market: Tesla and others.

Since the first quarter of 2023, the Tesla Model Y has overtaken the Corolla and RAV4 to become the world's best-selling vehicle, and it held this position until the end of 2023. This was the first time an electric vehicle became the world's best-selling vehicle, which was an important milestone for the entire automotive industry.

However, in 2024, the Tesla Model Y lost its title as the world's best-selling vehicle. Data released by market research firm JATO Dynamics shows that in 2024, the RAV4 surpassed the Model Y by a narrow margin of about 2,000 vehicles and regained the title of the world's best-selling vehicle. Although the Model Y is still excellent, this is a dangerous signal for Tesla.

Elon Musk's high-profile involvement in politics has ultimately backfired on Tesla. Since Musk got involved in politics, Tesla has been boycotted in many parts of the world, and even some of its stores and charging stations have been damaged. As a result, Tesla's sales have plummeted.

At the end of May this year, Musk finally couldn't bear the resistance and pressure from the government's efficiency department and ended his 130-day political experiment. However, the downward trend of Tesla's sales has not stopped. In the first half of this year, Tesla's global deliveries were 720,800 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%.

In the Chinese market, the Model Y has also been comprehensively besieged. Over the years, many domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers have targeted the Tesla Model Y at their respective new car press conferences. For example, the recently launched Xiaomi YU7 and XPeng G7, and before that, new energy brands such as NIO, Zeekr, Zhijie, and IM Motors have all tried to dethrone the Model Y from the top sales position.

Data from the China Passenger Car Association shows that in the first half of this year, Tesla's retail sales in the Chinese market were 263,400 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and its market share has shrunk from a peak of 15% in 2020 to 7.6%. Next, Tesla will face even more intense competition.

Since last year, when the automotive market witnessed a "siege" of Tesla by several major players, although the Model Y has remained the best-selling SUV in the new energy market, the fierce attacks from its competitors have put some pressure on it. Moreover, this year, the Model Y has encountered its strongest competitor in the Chinese market, the Xiaomi YU7. The latter received over 200,000 large orders within 3 minutes of its launch and has become the new "catfish" that could replace Tesla.

An interesting detail is that before Tesla officially announced the Model Y L, Li Auto announced that its all-electric SUV, the i8, would be launched on July 29th. There is an undercurrent of competition among car manufacturers. In the second half of this year, all-electric large SUVs such as the Model Y L, Li Auto i8, LeDao L90, and AITO M8 all-electric version will be launched, and a bloody battle around range, intelligent driving, and price is about to begin.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Caixin Tianxia WEEKLY", author: Jia Ming, published by 36Kr with permission.