Humanoid Robots "Breaking Through" in 2025: Evolution, Symbiosis, and Commercialization
Do you still remember the scene in the movie Prometheus when the android David, with his clear blue eyes, looked at Dr. Elizabeth Shaw? After exploring the Engineers' home planet with his master, this loyal and brave android has his own smart brain and thoughts...
The origin of life and religious philosophy are just plot elements in the movie. The interaction between humans and robots can also be traced in reality.
"3, 2, 1 ——"
As the countdown sounded, a robotic arm quickly located a rope - unveiling device with a radius of about 4mm and precisely started working for humans.
This was a scene that took place in a shopping mall in Beijing during the 618 promotion period. Before the ribbons of the promotional gift packages had stopped fluttering, 26 types of humanoid robots brought by 23 brands became the focus. Some with round heads swayed from side to side, like sleepy little bears; some stretched out their flexible robotic arms and clumsily handed balloons to passing children; others blinked their glowing "eyelashes" and circled around in the crowd to "say hello".
Even the old man who was busy comparing prices couldn't help but stop and poke the belly of the robot that said "Welcome". These "new species" that have stepped out of the silver screen are being favored by humans with their "cuteness".
During this year's Spring Festival Gala, the H1 robot of Unitree Technology danced the Yangko, bringing these "big figures" that are a bit dull but also a bit clever into the view of hundreds of millions of families. And robots with self - awareness are starting to question the boundaries of commercialization. What kind of contradictory tools are they exactly?
Evolution: From TV to Reality
Looking back, the in - depth integration of humanoid robots in technology and application scenarios has not happened overnight. David, the android in the science - fiction classic Alien: Covenant a few years ago, is a robot that has moved from the laboratory to reality. In the movie, David is a professional scientist and an angel protecting the protagonist, and occasionally has his own "little thoughts and secrets".
Therefore, it is necessary to clarify a product concept here. Today's humanoid robots are no longer the same as those in the past.
Previously, the public's perception of robots was largely limited to simple "intelligent floor - sweeping robots", "takeaway delivery robots", or "guidance robots" in bank halls.
However, AI has given birth to a new form of embodied intelligent tools. With the perfect combination of algorithms, machine learning, and humanoid skeletal mechanical equipment, intelligent humanoid robots that can mimic human forms and movement abilities, perceive the environment, and have certain autonomous decision - making and interaction capabilities have emerged.
Put simply, they have become smarter, and thus, they have started to do "hard and tiring jobs" everywhere.
From an industry perspective, the birth and commercialization of this new species bear profound imprints of the era and industrial background. What drives this wave is the multiple effects of the coordinated efforts of policies, capital, and the industrial chain.
Especially in 2023, after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Guiding Opinions on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots clearly set the goal of mass production by 2025, local governments quickly followed up. For example, Beijing, Shenzhen and other places have set up special funds. Shenzhen even ambitiously plans to cultivate "20 enterprises with revenues exceeding 1 billion and 50 application scenarios worth 1 billion".
Driven by policies, the cost of humanoid robots has dropped precipitously. Currently, the localization rate of core components has exceeded 65%, and the overall cost of the robots has decreased by 30% in three years. The most obvious example is that the high - end model H1 of Unitree Technology is priced at 650,000 yuan, while the price of its G1 model, which targets a wider market, has dropped to 99,000 yuan, and it was sold out as soon as it was launched.
Subsequently, the industrial chain has also matured rapidly. According to the list of the top 100 global humanoid robot industrial chains released by Morgan Stanley, Chinese enterprises occupy an astonishing 37 seats. Even more than half of the components of Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus come from Chinese suppliers.
On the other side of the accelerating commercialization, this new species is quietly penetrating into every corner of human life and work.
Nancy, who has been engaged in machine - learning research for many years, has witnessed this new change firsthand.
"A few years ago, I didn't realize that robots would integrate into our lives, studies, and work so frequently. It wasn't until I saw a robot in the movie that looked just like a human standing in front of me, and even competing with humans in a marathon race."
In his view, the arrival of humanoid robots is a definite event. Looking deeper, this new species has penetrated into all aspects of human social life.
In the industrial field, tasks with high standardization and strong repeatability often become their "first stop". Among them, the Walker S1 of Ubtech is a common sight in BYD's factories, carrying materials. Yuanzhi Robotics has started to enter the 3C electronics production line, testing more delicate assembly work. It is also silently learning the 1001st action data like an "apprentice", aiming to assemble a part steadily. The nuclear - power inspection robot of Unitree Technology has reduced the two - hour manual inspection to just 10 minutes.
Of course, in the field of home services, robots are also everywhere. The "Xiangjiang No. 1" developed in Hunan can play simple melodies, help the elderly stand up, and conduct basic health monitoring. In just three months, the degree of freedom of movement of the "Kuafu" robot of Leju Company has increased from over 28 to over 40, precisely executing daily instructions such as watering flowers and hanging out the laundry, looking very much a part of daily life...
This co - existence with the new species has long gone beyond the surface logic of industrial production iteration. It is not only a life partner that penetrates into the daily fabric but also a spiritual connection that provides emotional comfort. It is reconstructing the way humans interact with technology in both the dimensions of efficiency and warmth.
Coexistence: From Strangeness to Acceptance
Academic research has pointed out that "compared with the cold and mechanical impression in the past, AI based on large - language models now has more anthropomorphic characteristics. Their responses can convey emotions, bringing a warm and human - centered interactive experience."
It is not difficult to see that the bright side of humanoid robots is inspiring. Therefore, the industrial circle is pursuing the development of humanoid robots with extreme efficiency. In 2024 alone, the financing amount around Embodied AI exceeded 10 billion yuan. Tech giants such as Huawei and BYD have entered the field across industries, and the maximum running speed of the robot announced by Honor at the end of May has reached 4 m/s.
The entry of players has accelerated the growth of the industry scale. According to the Research and Forecast Report on the Analysis and Development Prospect of the Chinese Humanoid Robot Industry from 2025 to 2030 released by the Zhongshang Industry Research Institute, the scale of the Chinese humanoid - robot industry in 2024 was about 2.76 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 53.33%. It is predicted that the scale of the Chinese humanoid - robot industry will reach 5.3 billion yuan in 2025 and 38.7 billion yuan in 2028.
The expansion of the scale means the acceleration of application. The application scope of the above - mentioned humanoid robots in life and work will be further expanded. Conversely, it will also further change the public's traditional view of AI. However, it also raises an important question: If AI has different personality traits like humans, how will people respond to and accept this AI with personality?
Every coin has two sides. While humanoid robots bring hope, they also cast a long shadow. The most direct question is whether we can truly "coexist in the same room" with them?
Some scholars have pointed out that when people interact with AI at a relatively long psychological distance, they tend to feel distrustful and even reject it. This phenomenon was particularly obvious when AI technology first entered the market. Many users were still in a state of "strangeness" towards AI and found it difficult to trust its decisions and actions.
For example, can a robotic tool that enters a family to take care of the elderly or infants really be efficient, emotionally intelligent, caring, safe, and meet people's needs? There is no answer yet.
The challenge this poses to the industrial chain is that when humanoid robots powered by AI technology become more anthropomorphic in interaction, the psychological distance between humans and them will shorten. This will make users more trusting and closer to AI, and the shortened psychological distance will further enhance users' acceptance of AI systems, prompting them to continue using these technologies in the future.
On a social level, a report from Goldman Sachs has warned that by 2035, humanoid robots may replace up to 250 million jobs globally, with manufacturing workers being the first to be affected. Although companies often emphasize that "workers will shift to higher - value robot - scheduling and maintenance positions", the pain during the transformation process and the unemployment risk caused by skill mismatches are realities that cannot be avoided. Therefore, in the eyes of some industry insiders, "The tool itself may be neutral, but the system using it must have a stance." has become a common view.
It is true that the development of humanoid robots is irresistible. What we should think about is how to get along with them, but there aren't many answers to this question yet. However, one thing is certain: it needs to be more like a "human" - a simulated intelligent agent that can self - correct and respond flexibly.
Commercialization: From 0 to Over 10,000
If humanoid robots can provide emotional value, they will probably be as popular as Pop Mart. This means they are starting to understand our little thoughts. In the process of commercialization, the effective integration between humans and humanoid robots will be a continuous event in the future. Currently, the most pressing issue is the problem of large - scale mass production in the industry.
What we really need are these humanoid robots that can work effectively. In other words, the market enthusiasm is like a tide, rising and falling. Some early - stage robot companies that attracted attention with their cool demos are now facing the harsh reality.
For example, the national production of humanoid robots is expected to exceed 10,000 units in 2025. However, Zhu Xiaohu of Jinshajiang Venture Capital, a well - known investor, poured cold water on the situation in time: "Being able to do somersaults doesn't mean you can make money!" Some early - stage projects with unclear commercialization paths have encountered the embarrassing situation of capital withdrawal.
This situation is even more severe in terms of scenario mismatches. For example, a startup company ambitiously launched a warehouse - handling robot, but due to a 30% failure rate in actual operation, it eventually faced large - scale customer returns.
For ordinary people, the fact that "robots can't be rented out" has become an unspoken pain in the industry. Facing the price tag of hundreds of thousands of yuan, users' complaints are straightforward and realistic: "Spending 100,000 yuan on a machine that can only make the bed? It's more practical to hire a nanny!" This cold reality reminds industry players that there is still a long way to go between a flashy demo and a commercial product that truly meets real needs and creates value.
Although humanoid robots have been chased by capital, the key to breaking the deadlock actually lies in technological innovation. Wang Xingxing, the founder of Unitree Technology, believes that "cost reduction mainly depends on design, and mass production requires a dedicated large - scale model" has become an industry consensus. By optimizing algorithms, innovating structures, and developing a dedicated lightweight robot large - scale model, significantly reducing the dependence on expensive general large - scale models and ultra - high computing power, and reducing the failure rate to below 1% are the necessary steps towards large - scale commercial use.
The answer is clear. We don't reject robots; we just need smarter ones. Only when the performance meets the requirements can truly intelligent robots emerge.
The next step for embodied intelligence is to achieve large - scale application in the industrial field and create industrial value.
Just like the new - energy vehicle industry, a company can only survive when the gross profit per vehicle reaches a reasonable and healthy level. It also needs to maintain its advantages in technological innovation and functional experience. In the long run, this is also the direction that humanoid - robot manufacturers need to strive for. The ending of the humanoid - robot story will be jointly written by the industry and the general public.
In the world's first humanoid - robot half - marathon in April this year, 1 hour and 38 minutes after the first human athlete crossed the finish line, the Tianggong 1.2max became the first robot in history to cross the finish line of a marathon.
"I was at the scene that day. The robots were so cute. Although there were many problems, they all need a process to grow. After all, in a way, this is part of the future." Vicky said thoughtfully.
Perhaps when we look back at this race in a few years, it may be given new meaning, shining with the light of the future.
That's how business works.
This article is from the WeChat official account "florayang01" (ID: daily - case). Author: Donald, Editor: Ray. Republished by 36Kr with permission.