The Ups and Downs of Autonomous Driving in China over the Past Decade

Let's rewind ten years.

In 2015, the State Council officially issued "Made in China 2025", designating autonomous driving as an important direction for the future transformation of the automotive industry.

In August of that year, a large Yutong bus started from the Jialu River Station of the Zhengkai Avenue Intercity Railway in Henan Province and completed an autonomous driving test in a fully open road environment.

This was the first autonomous driving test of a bus in China.

In October, Baidu's self - driving car, which had been undergoing internal testing for two years, made its debut. On a day when Beijing's smog index soared to 400 and the city was shrouded in gray, it set off from near the Baidu Building in the Zhongguancun Software Park in Beijing, entered the Beijing - Xinjiang Expressway, passed through the Fifth Ring Road, reached the Olympic Forest Park, and then returned along the original route.

This was the first time in China that fully autonomous driving was achieved on a combination of urban roads, ring roads, and highways.

Immediately afterwards, Baidu's self - driving car was showcased at the World Internet Conference in Wuzhen. The General Secretary spent 10 minutes at the Baidu booth, three times longer than originally planned, and stated on the spot that China must develop autonomous driving.

Amidst high hopes, China's journey of putting autonomous driving on the road began.

At that time, Baidu planned to commercialize autonomous vehicles within three years, achieve mass production within five years, and completely change people's travel patterns within ten years.

Looking back at this ten - year milestone, what kind of story has domestic autonomous driving told, and where is it headed?

Shedding the Hype and Breaking the Ice Overseas

Unfortunately, autonomous driving doesn't follow a thrilling narrative. A decade of development has not turned it into an everyday occurrence like in science - fiction movies.

At the glorious moment when future technologies were on display, few people would have imagined that after a decade of industry exploration, vague promotions such as "autonomous driving" and "intelligent driving" would be prohibited.

This change stemmed from a fatal accident.

A vehicle in the NOA intelligent assisted driving state had a serious accident on the Deshang Expressway. The loss of three precious lives sounded an alarm for the industry, especially curbing the trend of exaggerated promotion.

After the accident, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology quickly took action, convening a promotion meeting on the access management of intelligent and connected vehicle products and software over - the - air updates. It clearly required car manufacturers not to use easily misleading terms such as "autonomous driving", "self - driving", "intelligent driving", "advanced intelligent driving" in their promotions.

Reflected in the market, the industry became somewhat quiet.

Companies including Xiaomi, Li Auto, Huawei, XPeng Motors, and various autonomous driving technology companies have adjusted their promotional language, renaming "intelligent driving" to "assisted driving" or "intelligent assisted driving".

Compared with the breakthrough attempt made by Apollo Go in Wuhan in 2024, there has been no breakthrough news in terms of large - scale promotion and application this year. Under strict supervision, all parties in the industry are becoming more cautious about autonomous driving road tests, and everything is progressing in an orderly manner.

In sharp contrast to the tightening domestic supervision, overseas markets are opening their arms to autonomous driving technology.

Recently, Waymo in the United States has made multiple breakthroughs: it reached a strategic cooperation with Uber and launched a commercial Robotaxi service in Atlanta; it expanded its operating area by 80 square miles in California; and announced that it will enter 10 new cities including Las Vegas in the future.

Tesla also launched a Robotaxi pilot operation in Austin, Texas.

The Middle East is also warmly embracing this technology. The United Arab Emirates has included it in its "National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2030" and plans to have autonomous vehicles meet 25% of travel demand. In 2023, Abu Dhabi established an intelligent driving vehicle industry cluster. Chinese enterprises such as Pony.ai, WeRide, and Nezha Motors, as signed cooperation partners, were approved to conduct autonomous driving road tests on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi.

Therefore, breaking into overseas markets has become one of the current focuses of domestic autonomous driving development.

Recently, Baidu's Apollo Go has made two major moves in the UAE. It signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Dubai Roads and Transport Authority and plans to deploy more than 1,000 fully autonomous vehicles in Dubai. It also reached a cooperation with the UAE's autonomous mobility company Autogo and plans to build the "largest driverless fleet" in Abu Dhabi.

Pony.ai is also continuously expanding globally. On July 4, 2025, Pony.ai and the Dubai Roads and Transport Authority signed a strategic cooperation agreement in Dubai. The two sides will work together to promote the commercialization of Robotaxi in Dubai. The first batch of vehicles will start road tests in 2025, laying the foundation for fully driverless commercial operations in 2026.

In addition, Pony.ai has established a European center in Luxembourg and obtained a temporary autonomous driving test permit in South Korea through cooperation with PonyLink. In Singapore, it is jointly promoting the implementation of autonomous driving with ComfortDelGro.

WeRide is the world's first technology company to hold autonomous driving licenses in five countries: China, the UAE, Singapore, France, and the United States. In December 2024, WeRide reached a cooperation with Uber, and their autonomous mobility service was launched in Abu Dhabi, currently the largest Robotaxi operating fleet in the Middle East.

Of course, the tightening domestic supervision does not mean a halt in technological R & D. Going overseas is also a symbol of strength. China's autonomous driving industry is still strengthening its internal capabilities and transforming its accumulated experience into international competitiveness, enabling Chinese autonomous driving enterprises to stand out in the global market.

After a decade of tempering, autonomous driving is shedding the hype, facing reality, and returning to safety.

A Decade of Highs and Lows

Behind autonomous driving are complex technical, ethical, and legal disputes. In the past decade, it has been a common scenario for the industry to evolve through alternating hot and cold periods.

Signals of policy relaxation and technological breakthroughs always ignite the industry's hopes, but the slow progress of technology commercialization combined with the ebb of capital cast a shadow over the industry.

Data tells the story. According to the statistics of "50 People in Vehicle - Road - Cloud" from Xiniu Data, after the debut of self - driving cars in 2015, China witnessed an upsurge in autonomous driving. The number of newly established autonomous driving enterprises increased rapidly each year, with nearly 100 new companies in 2018.

Many star enterprises that have emerged or once stood out in the industry appeared during this period.

In 2016, Peng Jun, who was then in Baidu's Autonomous Driving Division, co - founded Pony.ai with Lou Tiancheng, a programming genius.

In the same year, Momenta set sail with the core vision of "building an autonomous driving brain"; AutoX completed open - road tests in the year of its establishment; Uisee Technology targeted logistics and tourism scenarios and was the first to launch an autonomous driving solution; Didi Chuxing established an autonomous driving R & D department and delved into L4 - level technology research; Plus.ai took root in Silicon Valley; ZX Auto Technology focused on the Suzhou Industrial Park and eventually became the "first autonomous driving stock" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange...

The following year, the industry witnessed a second wave of innovation: Han Xu, the chief scientist of Baidu's Autonomous Driving Division, and Wang Jin, the then general manager, founded Jingchi Technology after leaving Baidu, which later became WeRide and was listed on the NASDAQ; Shan Jizhang believed that the autonomous driving field, which combines artificial intelligence and automobiles, had great development potential, and invited his Tsinghua University alumnus Liu Weihong to co - found Black Sesame Intelligence, which was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in August 2024, becoming the "first domestic autonomous driving chip stock".

During this period, the industrial ecosystem showed a diversified layout. Mainstream Technologies and FeiBu Technologies used port scenarios as a breakthrough point to gradually build an intelligent network covering logistics hubs and trunk transportation; Hodo Technology developed a mass - production solution for integrated driving and parking; Liangdao Intelligence focused on lidar perception technology; Mushroom Auto - Link pioneered the integrated implementation mode of vehicle - road - cloud...

After a period of rapid development, a cold spell hit in 2018 and 2019.

It started when an Uber self - driving vehicle hit and killed a pedestrian during a road test in the United States, the world's first case of a self - driving vehicle hitting and causing a fatality. Subsequently, the global autonomous driving industry entered a cold winter, with frequent closures of startups and setbacks for giants, and China was also affected.

Cruise, an autonomous driving company under General Motors, announced the postponement of its RoboTaxi deployment; Velodyne, the lidar leader, laid off half of its Beijing team and basically abandoned the Chinese market; Starsky Robotics initiated a sale negotiation due to failed financing; Drive.ai under Andrew Ng was acquired by Apple at a low price; RoadStar.ai liquidated due to internal strife and technological stagnation, becoming the first domestic autonomous driving enterprise to collapse...

However, it is normal for the industry to have comings and goings, and births and deaths. A turning point emerged in 2021.

In this year, the COVID - 19 pandemic unexpectedly highlighted the value of "contactless" services, and application scenarios such as unmanned delivery vehicles attracted attention. Driven by favorable policies, technological progress, and other factors, the autonomous driving industry entered the first year of commercialization in 2021, and was first implemented in specific scenarios such as unmanned trucks, unmanned logistics, and unmanned delivery, with a clearer prospect.

Meanwhile, new players emerged continuously. According to incomplete statistics from "50 People in Vehicle - Road - Cloud", more than 100 new intelligent driving - related enterprises were established in China from 2020 to 2021. Among them, more and more enterprises focused on scenario applications, such as Snian Intelligence, Qiangua Technology, and Qingtian Zhika for truck autonomous driving in logistics scenarios, Jiushi Intelligence for urban distribution autonomous driving, and technology solution providers such as Zhongzhi Auto, Uisee Technology, and Visionox Technology.

On the other hand, TuSimple was officially listed on the NASDAQ, becoming the world's first autonomous driving stock and kicking off the listing wave of autonomous driving startups.

Capital smelled the opportunity of a trillion - level market and rushed in crazily. The primary market reached a peak in financing. With heavy investment, valuations skyrocketed, and autonomous driving companies stood at the forefront of the wave for a while.

According to incomplete statistics from the Low - speed Autonomous Driving Industry Alliance and the New Strategy Low - speed Autonomous Driving Industry Research Institute, the total global financing in the autonomous driving industry in 2021 was nearly 150 billion yuan (including IPOs).

Investment and financing in China's autonomous vehicle industry also reached a "peak" in 2021. According to statistics from IT Juzi, the annual national financing amount reached a maximum of about 87.2 billion yuan.

Amid the industry boom and capital feast, China's technology giants also got deeply involved.

Baidu's Apollo launched a newly upgraded self - driving car mobility service platform, Apollo Go, and entered the car - manufacturing field under its open - platform strategy, naming the brand Jidu, which was later renamed Jiyue; Huawei launched a full - stack intelligent vehicle solution, HI (Huawei Inside), to empower car manufacturers; Tencent released an intelligent driving cloud platform; Alibaba focused on vehicle - road collaboration through its DAMO Academy; DJI launched its intelligent driving business brand, "DJI Automotive"...

By then, autonomous driving entrepreneurs faced a group of powerful competitors, and a tri - polar pattern of autonomous driving represented by startups, technology companies, and car manufacturers gradually took shape.

The Harsh Reality beneath the Carnival

Marked by the Internet industry's pursuit of speed and scale, some capital holders harbored the ambition to replicate the "burn - money - for - market" model, hoping to create unicorns within three years and achieve successful IPOs within five years in the autonomous driving field.

However, this logic is hard to work in the autonomous driving track.

For autonomous vehicles to truly hit the road, they must pass the strict tests of real - road driving, and there is no room for error in safety verification. The industry faces multiple severe challenges such as technological breakthroughs, regulatory compliance, and commercial implementation, and especially requires patient capital that adheres to long - termism and progresses steadily.

After years of rapid development, the autonomous driving industry reached a crucial moment of delivering results, and finally witnessed a listing boom in 2024.

According to incomplete statistics from "50 People in Vehicle - Road - Cloud", in 2024, Pony.ai and WeRide were successfully listed on the NASDAQ, while RoboSense, Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Intelligence, and Ruqi Mobility were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In addition, enterprises such as Yikong Zhijia, Momenta, MINIEYE, Visionox Technology, and Xidi Zhijia also actively submitted listing applications, seeking listing opportunities.

However, is capital satisfied with this report card? Judging from the market performance of listed enterprises, the situation is not optimistic.

In November 2024, Pony.ai's valuation in the last round of pre - IPO financing was as high as $10 billion, but its market value shrank to about $4.188 billion on the first day of listing, and the current market value is about $4.6 billion.

Before its IPO in October 2024, WeRide's valuation was about $5 billion, and its market value on the first day of listing was about $4.92 billion. Now, its market value has dropped significantly to about $2.2 billion.

Take Ruqi Mobility for example. After its Series B financing in 2023, its valuation reached HK$5.8 billion, and its market value on the first day of listing was about HK$6.919 billion, while the current market value has dropped to about HK$2 billion.

Of course, there are also enterprises with counter - trend growth, and Horizon Robotics is an exception. When it was listed, its market value was HK$55.77 billion, and the current market value has climbed to about HK$92.7 billion.

Why can Horizon Robotics buck the trend? Yu Kai's speech at the China EV 100 Forum provided the answer.

He pointed out that in 2021, 90% of intelligent driving solutions were self - developed by OEMs, and the proportion of third - party solutions was less than 10%; by 2024, the ratio had changed to 60%:40%, and it is expected to further change to 20%:80% in the future.

This means that most intelligent driving solutions for car manufacturers will be provided by third - party enterprises represented by Horizon Robotics. As the company with the highest market share among Chinese intelligent driving solution providers, Horizon Robotics is an important supplier behind many car manufacturers such as Chery, Geely, Changan, GAC, and BYD, and is known as the "greatest common divisor in the intelligent driving field".

In this autonomous driving marathon that has burned billions of dollars, some enterprises went public at a great cost, some found their direction, some barely survived, and some went bankrupt and liquidated, falling in the darkness before dawn.

In 2025, Visionox Technology, a unicorn enterprise once valued at up to 9 billion yuan, collapsed. It tried to list on the New Third Board, the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2017, 2022, and 2024 respectively, but all attempts failed. Hodo Technology also came to a complete standstill and was on the verge of bankruptcy in 2024.

Even if an enterprise is successfully listed, it doesn't mean it can rest easy. TuSimple staged a tragedy in ten years, from being a rising star and successfully listed to voluntarily delisting, transforming for survival, and finally closing down. Now, the door of TuSimple