Musk's four - part new dream for Robotaxi: achieving positive cash flow, outperforming Waymo, disrupting Uber, and becoming the dominant force in the "mileage - selling" market.
On June 27th, a Tesla Model Y with full self - driving capabilities completed the "world's first self - delivery" - starting from the Gigafactory in Texas, USA, it traversed the urban area without a driver or remote control and autonomously arrived at the owner's home in just 30 minutes.
This breakthrough continues the buzz from the trial operation of Robotaxi on June 22nd, once again pushing Tesla to the critical crossroads of technological breakthrough and commercial validation. As a milestone event for Elon Musk to fulfill his promise of driverless taxis, the launch of the first batch of Robotaxis was supposed to reassure the industry. However, in reality, it did not end the controversy about Tesla on Wall Street: the stock price soared by 8% at first and then gave back all the gains in the following days, indicating a fierce battle and divergence between bulls and bears.
In the first tech event of this week's 101 Weekly, let's talk about the outside world's reactions and analyses within a week after Tesla's Robotaxi hit the road. What were the personal experiences of Yu Zhenhua, a former Tesla FSD engineer who received the first - batch experience invitation for Robotaxi? What surprises and disappointments did Tesla's Robotaxi bring us? Looking further ahead, can Tesla overcome technological flaws and regulatory uncertainties to truly achieve commercial profitability? Behind the stock price fluctuations, is it a milestone for the commercialization of driverless technology or a technological overreach under the capital frenzy?
01 First - hand experience on the launch day of Robotaxi
Although Tesla's Robotaxi press conference was limited in scale, it attracted worldwide attention. The reason is that about 60% - 70% of Tesla's current $1 trillion market value comes from the market's imagination of Robotaxi. Now, on the roads of Austin, Texas, USA, this vision has finally come to the stage of practical verification, and almost all investors are closely watching this crucial moment.
However, Musk was extremely cautious and low - key about the launch of Robotaxi this time, which is completely different from his previous high - profile press conferences: only 10 - 20 vehicles were put into operation in the first batch, and only self - media bloggers and investors who are bullish on Tesla were invited to experience it, and it was not open to the public. As a result, many users who are interested in Robotaxi were unable to experience it firsthand.
The video and podcast program of "Silicon Valley 101" were also played inside Tesla's driverless cars in Austin.
Our interviewee, Yu Zhenhua, a former Tesla FSD engineer, was one of the few people who received the first - batch experience invitation for Robotaxi. He later said on Twitter, "I can tell you with great certainty that Robotaxi is Tesla's next exponential growth point."
Yu Zhenhua
Former Tesla AI engineer:
The experience started at 2 p.m. local time, and I only took four rides. Tesla's Robotaxi is very unassuming because it looks exactly the same as a Model Y, except there is a sticker on it. The only difference, perhaps, is that you have to look closely at the driver's seat and find that there is no one there. Otherwise, you won't even feel that it is a driverless taxi.
Let's first talk about the initial configuration of this Robotaxi launch:
[Fleet size and vehicle models] Approximately 20 Model Ys were put into operation in the first batch. They are all mass - produced models without special modifications, which provides great room for imagination for future large - scale commercialization.
[User access] Currently, only invited users can download the app to experience it, and it is not open to the public yet.
[Operating hours and fees] It operates from 6 a.m. to 12 a.m. every day. Regardless of the distance of a single trip, the fixed fee is $4.2 (42 is a symbolic price that Musk favors. British writer Douglas Adams wrote in "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" that "the meaning of life is 42", and Musk has used this number in his products multiple times).
[Geofence area] The operating area is limited to the south bank of the Colorado River, and the area is about half of Waymo's current geofence.
[Safety supervisor configuration] There is a safety supervisor in the front passenger seat. Although they cannot intervene in normal autonomous driving, they can manually stop the vehicle in case of an emergency. For example, during the actual test, there was a situation where the Robotaxi failed to recognize the reversing behavior of a UPS truck, and then the safety supervisor intervened and braked urgently.
02 Surprises and disappointments
Yu Zhenhua
Former Tesla AI engineer:
The setting of the safety supervisor exceeded my expectations. Friends who are familiar with the Robotaxi business know that it is an industry convention and a regulatory requirement for any company to have safety supervisors at the initial stage of operation. However, what I didn't expect was that Tesla's safety supervisor was sitting in the front passenger seat instead of the driver's seat. This really shows their confidence.
Of course, there were also aspects that did not meet Yu Zhenhua's expectations: the limited test scope.
Yu Zhenhua
Former Tesla AI engineer:
At first, when I saw the Geo - fence area, I thought it was smaller than I expected. I originally thought it would be at least similar to Waymo's area. But after I checked on the app when I got back, I found that when you click on a place you're interested in outside the current Geo - fence area, the app will expose some areas that they are testing internally but haven't launched yet, such as parts of San Francisco, Silicon Valley, the north side of the river in Austin, and the Austin airport area. These should all be within their planned test scope. So I think the Geo - fence area will expand rapidly in the next three to six months.
03 How does Tesla calculate the economic accounts of Robotaxi?
Another thing that the market is very concerned about is the pricing. The $4.2 per trip set by Tesla this time is obviously a symbolic fee and definitely won't generate profits. According to the hourly wage standard of $7.25 in Texas, this amount isn't even enough to pay the salary of the front - passenger safety supervisor. So, how should we view the economic accounts of Tesla's driverless technology?
Yu Zhenhua
Former Tesla AI engineer:
The industry has always been looking forward to the cost advantages of Tesla's pure - vision solution for its Robotaxi business. Compared with the number of cities where it operates, I'm more concerned about when it can rapidly expand the Geo - fence area and fleet size in the pilot city of Austin, reduce costs as soon as possible, and then achieve positive cash flow. Because no Robotaxi company has achieved positive cash flow yet.
If Tesla can prove that it can be profitable in Austin, I think it's secure, which means this model can be replicated in other regions. I don't want Tesla to get involved in a competition with Waymo in terms of the number of operating cities. If it can't prove its profitability in a single city, the number of operating cities doesn't make sense.
In Tesla's story, its competitor is not only Waymo. The next target it wants to disrupt is Uber.
In the market discussions in the past few days, the optimists calculate like this: Tesla can be cheaper than Uber. Assuming that after deducting insurance, maintenance, and upkeep costs, with a profit of $15 per hour and 10 hours of operation per day, a Model Y with a cost of $50,000 can recoup its cost in less than a year; if it's a CyberCab with a cost of $30,000, it can recoup its cost in seven months.
Of course, this calculation is overly simplistic and optimistic. However, if Tesla's Robotaxi can be cheaper than Uber and prove its business model in at least one city, it can definitely take a different development path from Waymo and even seize Uber's market.
Yu Zhenhua
Former Tesla AI engineer:
We can see that Waymo operates on its own in San Francisco and Arizona using its own app, but in Austin and the newly opened Atlanta, it cooperates with Uber. It's easy to understand why Uber cooperates with Waymo as it wants to diversify risks. But why is Waymo willing to cooperate with Uber?
The biggest drawback for Waymo when entering a new city is the small fleet size. For example, there are only dozens of vehicles in Atlanta, and there should be less than 100 in Austin. If the fleet size is so small, would you be willing to use its app to call a taxi?
Waymo needs to cooperate with Uber due to its limited fleet size, but Tesla doesn't have this problem. According to Tesla's plan, if the fleet cost is low enough, it can quickly expand the fleet size. Especially in the future, if it can directly activate the existing vehicles equipped with HW4 or above, the fleet size may grow exponentially. Therefore, some people think that if Tesla's Robotaxi can succeed, the competition with Waymo may not be on the same level.
However, for Tesla to truly make its Robotaxi business successful and build a global fleet of millions of vehicles like Uber, it needs to build a lot of ecosystems and calculate many costs. For example, Morgan Stanley once designed a detailed calculation model covering eight items including vehicle depreciation, cleaning fees, maintenance fees, tolls, insurance, parking fees, mobile operator fees, and energy costs. These are all cost items that Tesla needs to face. Of course, Tesla also has cost - reduction measures, such as using Starlink to save "mobile operator fees" and reducing insurance costs due to the low accident rate of FSD. But it may take a long time to truly make the profit model of Robotaxi work.
04 Concerns about stricter regulations
According to the most optimistic market expectations for Tesla, it aims to disrupt the existing transportation model. For example, Cathie Wood believes that if Robotaxi succeeds, it will not only disrupt the ride - hailing market but also reshape the entire transportation industry, because consumers may no longer need to own private cars. And Tesla's revenue model will completely shift from "selling cars" to "selling mileage". Imagine if each car travels hundreds of kilometers per day, and with hundreds of thousands or millions of cars, the accumulated mileage will be astronomical.
However, this vision has not been realized yet. Judging from Tesla's stock price performance in the past week, Wall Street investors are not fully convinced. The biggest uncertainties still focus on three aspects: whether the safety factor of Tesla's Robotaxi can meet the standards, whether it can reach the L4 - level autonomous driving standard, and whether subsequent regulations will become the biggest obstacle to commercialization.