On the eve of Apple's entry into the foldable device market: The industry experiences a mix of "warmth" and "coldness".
The foldable phone market, in which many manufacturers have placed their bets, reached an "inflection point" in 2025.
According to the prediction of research firm Counterpoint Research, after years of triple - digit high - speed growth, the global shipment growth of foldable smartphones is expected to narrow to a modest 2.9% in 2024. By 2025, the market may experience its first "single - digit negative growth" since its inception.
"There aren't many favorable factors in the market this year. We actually expect the segment to see its first negative growth," said Jene Park, a senior analyst at Counterpoint, attributing part of the market growth constraints to the performance of industry leader Samsung and the production scale adjustments of manufacturers such as OPPO to their product lines.
However, in sharp contrast to this macro prediction is the enthusiastic expectation in the industrial chain due to Apple's entry into the market.
"Currently, there are many rumors in the market about the North American customer (commonly referring to Apple) launching a foldable screen product. We believe that if the North American customer releases a foldable screen product, it is likely to play a guiding role in the entire industry and solve the current pain points of foldable screens, which is a positive aspect for the market," Jingyan Technology said at a recent investor communication meeting.
Liu Yushi, the research director of CINNO Research, told a reporter from Cailian Press, "After years of continuous iteration and improvement in the supply chain, the technologies related to foldable screens have become mature, and the relevant supply chain has reached a sufficient scale to support Apple's entry."
A market on the verge of its first contraction and a super player with the strongest ecosystem ready to enter - this contradictory picture is becoming one of the most notable games in the global consumer electronics field in 2025. Some insiders in the industrial chain have vaguely told a reporter from Cailian Press that regarding Apple's foldable phone project, "(a leading manufacturer) should be doing NPI (New Product Introduction)."
Apple's Entry Will Change the Market Landscape
In the innovation landscape of consumer electronics, foldable smartphones were once highly anticipated. However, after years of wild growth, this track, once favored by capital and manufacturers, is facing a severe "stress test."
According to the latest report from Counterpoint Research, the global shipment of foldable smartphones is expected to grow only 2.9% year - on - year in 2024. Compared with the previous years' growth rates of doubling or even several times, it has shown signs of fatigue. What makes the industry more cautious is its prediction for the future - in 2025, the global foldable smartphone market may experience a historic single - digit decline for the first time.
Jene Park explained that the slowdown in market growth is directly related to Samsung's under - performance in some markets and the strategic adjustments made by manufacturers such as OPPO to the production rhythm of their clamshell foldable smartphones.
On the other hand, in the Chinese mobile phone market, the consumption structure is quietly changing. According to statistics from CINNO Research, the sales proportion of high - end smartphones priced over 5,000 yuan in China has steadily and counter - cyclically increased from 11% in 2020 to 27% in 2024.
"Although the smartphone market has entered the stock stage with a slowdown in growth, high - end smartphones priced over 5,000 yuan are showing a steady counter - cyclical upward trend," Liu Yushi, the research director of CINNO Research, told a reporter from Cailian Press.
Therefore, as a typical representative of high - end phones, the penetration rate of foldable smartphones is also continuously increasing. Liu Yushi expects that the penetration rate of foldable smartphones in the Chinese smartphone market will increase from about 2.5% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2024.
It is at this complex crossroads where macro - slowdown and structural growth coexist that Apple is entering the foldable screen track. According to a recent revelation by well - known Apple analyst Ming - Chi Kuo, Apple's supplier Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (Foxconn) is expected to officially start producing the "foldable iPhone" at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2025.
For Apple, this is not only about opening up a new product line but also about finding the next growth pole that can support its high profits and high brand premium against the backdrop of the increasingly stable growth of the iPhone.
"After years of continuous iteration and improvement in the supply chain, the technologies related to foldable screens have become mature, and the relevant supply chain has reached a sufficient scale to support Apple's entry," analyzed Liu Yushi.
In recent years, Android manufacturers have continuously introduced new products in the foldable screen field. The yield rate of flexible OLED panels has been greatly improved, the process of UTG (Ultra - Thin Glass) covers has become more stable, and the hinge technology has evolved from U - shaped and drop - shaped to various complex forms. Many technical problems that troubled Android manufacturers in the early years now have relatively mature solutions, paving the way for Apple's entry.
"Apple's advantage will lie in its late - mover advantage, that is, leveraging the relatively mature scale and technology of the supply chain to achieve better cost management," said Liu Yushi.
Taking the screen as an example, the current foldable panel supply chain has evolved from being dominated by Samsung to a diversified market with multiple strong competitors such as BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd., Visionox Technology Co., Ltd., TCL CSOT Technology Co., Ltd., and Shenzhen Tianma Microelectronics Co., Ltd. This undoubtedly provides Apple with more leeway in cost control and supply security.
An even greater advantage comes from its outstanding software ecosystem. "Considering Apple's long - term operation of the iOS system and the iPad product line, it has a high starting point for the compatibility and adaptation of the foldable screen ecosystem," said Liu Yushi.
With such clear technological and ecological advantages, Apple's entry has raised high expectations for the foldable phone track in the industrial chain.
"Currently, there are many rumors in the market about the North American customer launching a foldable screen product. We believe that if the North American customer releases a foldable screen product, it is likely to play a guiding role in the entire industry and solve the current pain points of foldable screens, which is a positive aspect for the market," Jingyan Technology said at an investor communication meeting.
After years of development of Android foldable phones, the so - called "pain points" include not only hardware - level problems such as creases, thickness, and durability but also software - level experience shortcomings such as application adaptation and interaction logic. The industry generally believes that with Apple's extreme pursuit of product details, its first foldable screen product will set a new quality benchmark for the entire industry, forcing all Android manufacturers to engage in a new round of arms race.
There are different views in the market on how big a splash this "catfish" will make after entering the water.
It is reported that the price of Apple's first foldable screen product may be as high as over $2,000, and its annual shipment is expected to be in the millions. The total sales volume over its entire life cycle is estimated to be between 15 million and 20 million units. Liu Yushi also mentioned these industry rumors to the reporter, but he also emphasized that all information is subject to change before Apple officially initiates the project.
A person from an Apple supply - chain company expressed a more sober view to a reporter from Cailian Press. He believes that the initial volume of Apple's foldable phones will not be large. "There won't be an explosion, at least not at the beginning. The optimistic prediction of tens of millions of annual shipments that was once circulated in the market is just a bit ridiculous," he said bluntly.
However, whether it is in the tens of millions or millions, for the foldable phone market with sales of about 16 million units in 2024, Apple's entry will have a huge impact on the market. At the same time, according to data from Counterpoint Research, the top seven global foldable smartphone shipments in 2024 were Samsung, Huawei, Motorola, Honor, Xiaomi, and OPPO. It is worth looking forward to how this list will change after Apple's entry.
Multiple Supply - Chain Manufacturers Are Optimistic about the Development of Foldable Screens
"Most of the suppliers of folding mechanisms and folding screens are originally Apple supply - chain suppliers, with a relatively high overlap," said Liu Yushi.
Therefore, once Apple launches the foldable screen project, its existing core suppliers such as Foxconn, Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd., Lingyi iTech Co., Ltd., and Lens Technology Co., Ltd. may become the first beneficiaries.
Recently, a reporter from Cailian Press called Lens Technology Co., Ltd. as an investor to inquire about the company's orders and layout in the foldable screen field. A staff member said that Lens Technology is "one of the earliest suppliers to enter the foldable screen supply market" and has been deeply involved since the technology was far from mature. "Actually, we have been investing in R & D with our major customers for a long time when this technology was not yet mature."
"We expect that after some of our major customers' main models see increased production, our revenue in this area will also increase accordingly," said the above - mentioned person.
Another "Apple supply - chain" supplier, Jingyan Technology, revealed at an investor communication meeting that "in recent years, the company has been continuously cooperating with major customers in cutting - edge technology development. It takes a certain amount of time and a cycle from development to implementation."
In addition, traditional Apple supply - chain companies such as Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. and Lingyi iTech Co., Ltd. have also publicly entered the foldable phone track.
Liu Yushi further said that there have long been rumors in the industry that Samsung Display has been preparing for the screen of the foldable iPhone, and A - share listed companies such as BLT Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. are also expected to become suppliers of key structural components such as bearings and middle frames.
In fact, this optimistic sentiment is not limited to Apple's core "circle of friends." With the expectation of Apple's entry as the "catfish," the entire domestic foldable screen supply chain in China has been activated.
Liu Yushi said, "The high - value components of foldable phones are concentrated in screens, hinges, covers, batteries, and heat - dissipation components. These segments have high technical difficulties and high supply - chain concentration, making them the main sources of profits in the industrial chain."
The screen, as the core component with the highest cost and the most representative of technological strength in foldable smartphones, is naturally a highly contested area. Memgmeng Zhang, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, told a reporter from Cailian Press that currently, the panel is still the most expensive part of the total cost of a foldable smartphone, accounting for a higher proportion than the main control chip, while the hinge, which has attracted high market attention, accounts for about 18% of the total cost of the phone.
Currently, four A - share foldable screen suppliers have all started supplying to Android - brand foldable phones.
"Foldable smartphones are gradually moving from niche to mainstream and rapidly developing towards the era of mainstream phones," Visionox Technology Co., Ltd. told a reporter from Cailian Press. The company has long conducted in - depth research on different folding forms such as inward - folding, outward - folding, and triple - folding and has supplied products to multiple brand customers.
Another panel giant, Shenzhen Tianma Microelectronics Co., Ltd., told a reporter from Cailian Press that this year, the company provided core screen support for the first triple - folding concept phone of the TECNO brand under Transsion Holdings, the PHANTOM ULTIMATE 2.
Beyond the screen, segments represented by FPC (Flexible Printed Circuit), hinges, and UTG have also seen new growth opportunities due to the emergence of folding forms.
"The increased usage of FPC in foldable phones will bring new growth opportunities for the company's FPC business," said a representative of Shenzhen Pengding Holding Co., Ltd. (002938.SZ) to a reporter from Cailian Press. It is understood that Shenzhen Pengding Holding Co., Ltd. has become the world's largest flexible printed circuit board supplier. Since the interior of foldable smartphones needs to be bent multiple times, the requirement for the flexibility of connection components is extremely high, and the usage of FPC far exceeds that of traditional straight - screen phones.
In terms of hinges, Jingyan Technology clearly stated in its financial report that its revenue growth in the first quarter of this year was mainly due to "the continuous demand for foldable screens and wearable devices from end - users." In terms of UTG, domestic manufacturers such as Changxin Technology Group Co., Ltd. and Kyson Technology Co., Ltd. have both achieved mass - production capabilities.
Overall, although the foldable screen market has cooled down briefly this year, Apple's entry has indeed sent a positive signal to the industrial chain. "Signals from the supply chain show that the order volume for foldable screens is continuously increasing," said Calvin Lee, the research director at Counterpoint. "Currently, this does not seem to be a stagnant market but rather a market on the verge of change. This transformation requires careful planning, which is why the market has experienced a brief correction this year."
This article is from the WeChat official account "Growth Enterprise Market Observation." The author is Wang Biwei, and it is published by 36Kr with authorization.