Kevin Kelly's 85 Predictions about the Year 2049

"The future" always allows humanity to embark on boundless imagination.

Kevin Kelly, the founding editor - in - chief of Wired magazine, the "Father of the Silicon Valley Spirit," and the author of Out of Control and The Inevitable, is certain that in the near future, artificial intelligence (AI) and its related technologies will become the core forces shaping global society. He believes that holding an optimistic vision for the future plays a crucial role in building a better world. An ideal and beautiful future will never appear by chance; instead, it requires us to actively shape it based on an accurate understanding of the future direction.

KKWall by Chris Michel from KK.org

In Kevin Kelly's new book 2049, with a 25 - year time dimension, he proposed five core concepts about the future world - the mirror world, human - like intelligence, AI assistants, mutual visibility, and content explosion.

Based on Kevin Kelly's forward - looking perspective and profound insights into future trends presented in the book, we have sorted out his latest 100 cutting - edge predictions about the future. These predictions cover multiple aspects such as technology, society, and life, which will help us better understand, imagine, and adapt to the future.

*The following content is excerpted from Kevin Kelly's 2049: Possibilities in the Next 10,000 Days

The Mirror World: The Growth Inflection Point of the New - Generation Technological Revolution

1. By 2049, most smartphones will be replaced by smart glasses. When billions of people living in urban areas wear these smart glasses, what they see is the superposition of the real world and the virtual world, thus forming the "mirror world."

2. The mirror world will be the next - generation Internet, an immersive Internet empowered by AI where everyone can have an immersive experience. In this brand - new Internet, the way of human - machine interaction will change from using keyboards, mice, and touchscreens to using language, gestures, and even eye contact.

3. In the era of the mirror world, the largest and richest companies in the world will be those that provide data support for the mirror world.

4. The mirror world will become a space for us to exert our great imagination. In the future, immersive experiences will become fast - moving consumer goods, and the content and experiences obtained by users will witness an explosive growth. Everyone can be a recorder of unique experiences, share immersive experiences, and all these experiences will be 3D immersive.

5. When virtual experiences become increasingly accessible, real experiences will instead become scarcer and more precious. Real adventures in the real world will become a unique service that only a few people can enjoy.

6. In the mirror world, everyone's behavioral data is constantly being captured. Therefore, everyone needs to make a trade - off between personalization and privacy protection.

7. Information collection must be open and transparent, that is, mutual visibility. The primary prerequisite is user trust, equal rights and responsibilities, traceable and verifiable information, two - way transparent accountability, and a way to lodge complaints.

Human - Machine Interaction: AI Will Never Become "Human"

8. As far as we know, only human intelligence is "general." Compared with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), AI in professional fields is what we should really look forward to.

9. In the next 25 years, the relationship between humans and AI will be that of partners. Humans will participate in the operation of AI in various ways, rather than letting AI "think" alone in the cloud and have its own will and agenda.

10. Although AI will seem more and more like humans on the surface, we must never understand their behavior by human standards. We need to be clear that AI and humans think differently. When interacting with AI, the primary principle is to always remind ourselves not to imagine them as humans.

11. Like all technological advancements, it will also take time for all industries to adopt AI. It will take 10 years or more for AI to penetrate all aspects of the economy and completely change people's work.

12. By 2049, everyone will have an intelligent assistant like a personal secretary, that is, an AI assistant, which will be as common as the GPS (Global Positioning System) navigation software on our mobile phones.

13. The integration of AI assistants and the mirror world will show us the main way of human - machine interaction in the future. It is most likely to be implanted in smart glasses or smart wearable devices, which will also be the next key points for all parties to compete for.

14. An AI assistant is similar to the operating system of a mobile phone. We can also call it AIOS (AI Operating System), and B2B (bot to bot, robot program to robot program) is similar to the smartphones we use now. Enterprises provide services to people by designing bots, and these bots are like various APPs (applications) in smartphones.

Ten Challenges That AI Brings to the Workplace

15. In the next 25 years, the "human + machine" model will be based on the following paradigm: machines will continuously improve efficiency, while humans will focus on inefficient things - breakthrough innovations are often inefficient. Productivity is designed for robots, not for humans. Any job with productivity indicators should not be done by humans, especially in the future. In an organization, we need to learn to work with intelligent digital colleagues, who will assist us in completing many tasks. This requires us to establish a brand - new "human + machine" code of conduct in the workplace.

16. Twenty - five years later, there will still be many non - standard, technically - oriented, and service - oriented blue - collar jobs that need to be done by humans, and their wages may be higher, especially in developed countries. The aftermarket for robots, that is, the parts market or the after - sales and maintenance market for robots, may also be a huge growth market in the future, creating many employment opportunities.

17. The work of CEOs and senior executives will not change much; the work of front - line employees will also not change much, except that their work speed and efficiency will be further improved. The most significant organizational changes will occur in the middle - level management, which will be most affected. The reason is simple. If the main function of middle - level managers is management, that is, passing on information up and down, and statistics and sorting of front - line work, then AI can perfectly replace them.

18. In terms of the organization, the organizational structure will become increasingly flat, the space for middle - level managers will be greatly compressed, and the work of reporting, budgeting, and assessment may all be undertaken by AI.

19. B2B will also make peer evaluation and competition among colleagues more common. Peer evaluation will be very easy. Colleagues can compete with each other, and the results of the competition will be very transparent. Relatively speaking, cooperation will also be easier.

20. AI will make performance more transparent because employees' work performance can be more accurately evaluated and monitored. This transparent monitoring will further strengthen the supervision and cooperation among colleagues.

21. In addition, with the popularization of AI assistants, it will be easier and more flexible for people to change jobs in the future. AI assistants can help us download and call up various novel skills at any time.

22. Historically, any technological change has eliminated many jobs but also created enough new jobs. This time will be no exception. In the next 25 years, almost all familiar job contents will be replaced by AI, but there may be few unemployed people because AI will create more new jobs that people have never seen before.

23. In the future, as society becomes more prosperous, most people will have no worries about food and clothing. Many people's jobs will move towards volunteer services and social welfare. Humans will tend to engage in jobs that require creativity and interpersonal interaction, which are areas that AI cannot easily replace.

24. The next 25 years will be an era of continuous and drastic changes. Facing changes, humans can adapt better, while AI is not that flexible.

25. In terms of the size of enterprises, there will be two extreme trends in the future. On the one hand, large enterprises can become even larger. In the future, there may even be super - large enterprises with more than one million employees. On the other hand, one - person/two - person companies will also become very common. The first super - individual with an annual sales volume of over one billion US dollars will soon appear.

26. With the support of AI, starting a business will also become easier. In the next 25 years, everyone will have the opportunity to start a company. There will be more new - type startups, which are composed of innovators and cooperate around specific projects within a specific time.

27. As more people start businesses, there will be fewer entrepreneurs aiming to create Fortune Global 500 companies. A company that operates continuously for 100 years may become very rare. To cope with the uncertain, discontinuous, and rapidly changing market environment, we will see that the form of enterprises will be more loose and flexible, and their life cycles will be shorter.

Four Business Opportunities Catalyzed by AI

28. The logic of technological evolution in the next 25 years is clearly visible: First, at the cornerstone level, there are AI, digital governance, and organizational change; second, at the survival level, represented by healthcare and education; third, at the application level, such as robots, autonomous driving, and space exploration; finally, at the ultimate level of human exploration, covering life sciences and brain - machine interfaces.

29. AI is the most cutting - edge field at present, but it is no longer a game that ordinary startups can participate in - unless they find a new way. The entry ticket for this game requires at least one billion US dollars. At least from the perspective of the investment required for AI research and development, the AI field will still be dominated by giants.

30. In the global AI field in the future, there may be two or three dominant players, or one dominant player and two chasers. The dominant position is only temporary and may last for at most 10 years, or even shorter, only 8 or 7 years.

31. What is more worthy of attention in the AI field are those niche fields empowered by AI, that is, AI applications in the mirror world, or various bots in the B2B world.

32. It is certain that so far, the most important impact of AI is to spawn better AI.

33. The fields that will develop the fastest in the next 25 years will definitely be those that fully benefit from AI technology. Industries worthy of choice will be deeply integrated with cutting - edge technologies, be able to achieve their own development through technological leaps, enabling participants to seize opportunities in the wave of the times instead of being eliminated.

34. If the huge change on the Internet in the past 25 years was from search to recommendation, then the most significant change in the next 25 years will be customized/personalized products and services, and the basis for customization/personalization is a comprehensive understanding of individuals.

35. Undoubtedly, in both the virtual world and the Internet of Things world, the collection and use of big data will become the fundamental feature of the future AI era.

36. From the perspective of the commercial value analysis of the space economy, Bezos' "Blue Origin" company cannot raise enough funds through space tourism. In the future, space tourism will definitely be a niche project, with a market size of at most four or five billion US dollars, and it is unlikely to form an economic scale to support space exploration.

37. From a commercial value perspective, the near - Earth orbit, that is, satellites and communications, will still be the most profitable field in the private space industry. Musk's Starlink, which provides global satellite communication coverage, is a good example.

38. Globalization makes data transmission around the world, ground monitoring, and object measurement increasingly important. And humanity is still in the initial stage of using the near - Earth space for communication, monitoring, and observation. Therefore, future demand will be sufficient to drive the great development of this industry, and more players will join, manufacturing more rockets and sending more satellites into the near - Earth orbit.

39. In the next 25 years, there will be thousands of satellites around the near - Earth orbit monitoring everything. These satellites will also become important infrastructure for the interconnection of the mirror world. Of course, they will also bring new challenges because the near - Earth orbit is already very crowded now. So, in the next 25 years, a new industry - space junk cleaning - will emerge.

40. Another promising field is the space industry in the near - Earth orbit, that is, attempting to build large - scale factories in the near - Earth orbit and then send products back to Earth, or build power stations in the near - Earth orbit, conduct nuclear fusion research, and transmit energy back to Earth through microwaves or other forms.

Content Explosion: How Can Creators Break Through?

41. The next 25 years will be an era of content explosion, an era that continues the information explosion, super - prosperous content, and increasingly common personalized creation of the past 20 years.

42. AI will directly affect the publishing industry. With the popularization of powerful AI assistants, people can let AI assistants read all books. Since the AI assistant knows the user very well, it can find the most novel part of each book for the user during the interaction with the user and recommend it to the user.

43. Future books will be a great collection of human knowledge. Books can be connected to each other, and each book will have various hyperlinks, connecting all knowledge to form a Meta (meta) text/Mega (super - large) text, like a "general book," a book that collects the wisdom of mankind.

44. In the next 25 years, Hollywood will be subverted again. Hollywood movies require huge investments, while AI will make film presentation easier, and everyone can become a screenwriter and director. In the future, one - person movies and fan - made movies will become very popular.

45. Future AI may lower the thresholds for various creations/manufacturings. In the future, there will be more people like Jobs and Musk in more fields because excellent ideas and crazy thoughts will be easier to implement.

46. For creators, there are two key points: First, do your own thing well, be driven by interest rather than simple profit, and focus on things you are interested in and good at. Second, find real fans who like and support you. This requires a large enough audience and a better matching mechanism, as well as more communication and a bit of luck.

47. The mirror world will more efficiently match high - quality content with interested users. People all over the world are potential audiences, and the long - tail effect of dissemination will be very obvious. Of course, the mirror world will also retain a certain degree of randomness and contingency, bringing surprises to creators and fans.

48. In the mirror era, another field that will see a big explosion is digital avatars. Within 25 years, everyone can create a realistic digital avatar based on themselves.

49. When AI is widely used, we need to redefine reality. It will change the "seeing is believing" standard formed in the era of mass media. Various deep fakes in the AI era require us to verify every source of information. We should first assume that the photos or videos we see are fake until we can prove they are real.

Eight Directions for Future Education Development

50. Personalized or individualized education will be popularized due to the inclusiveness of AI. Similar to personalized healthcare, personalized shopping, and other personalized products and services, personalized education will also develop rapidly due to the ubiquitous presence of AI and the continuous improvement of AI capabilities.

51. In the great transformation from the industrial era to the AI era, the three - stage life model that we are already accustomed to in the industrial era - education, work, and retirement - will be completely subverted.

52. Like the experience economy, experiential learning will also be a very important part of future learning. Through VR/AR, children can acquire knowledge in an immersive way.

53. In the future, university learning may be a non - linear and highly virtualized experience, which will allow more people to have the opportunity to study courses from prestigious universities.