The Ambitious Vision of Solid-State Batteries: They May Become Standard in Family Cars in Seven Years.

"Currently, everything is unknown. The first model and its parameters have not been officially reported," BYD recently responded to rumors such as "solid-state batteries will be installed in the Seal model" and "the energy density will reach 400Wh/kg, and it can travel 1,500 kilometers after a 12-minute charge," stating that these are false information.

Actually, from the external market rumors, the public has long been looking forward to solid-state batteries. Many people believe that solid-state batteries can solve the current problems of new energy vehicles, such as short range, safety issues, and poor low-temperature performance, and are the ultimate solution for the power of new energy vehicles.

On one hand, there is the ever-growing market demand, and on the other hand, there is the engineering progress gradually emerging from the laboratory. However, for the industry, the technical challenges of solid-state batteries are approaching the final stage, and what follows is the most difficult cost problem - how to reduce the cost and make solid-state batteries a widely accessible product.

[1] Expectations for Solid-State Batteries

Charge for five minutes and get a 1,000-kilometer range, start with a full charge at minus 30°C, and have a cycle life of over 25,000 times... If solid-state batteries can really be put into production, it will be a revolutionary reform for the new energy vehicle industry because it can solve many pain points of current lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries.

First is the safety issue. Currently, most power batteries are liquid, with complex internal structures and poor high-temperature resistance. As long as the internal temperature of the battery reaches above 80°C, its electrolyte layer and separator will melt and decompose, leading to problems such as short circuits and spontaneous combustion.

In contrast, solid-state batteries do not have a separator. The decomposition temperature of their electrolyte is above 200°C, and the probability of thermal runaway, short circuits, and spontaneous combustion is lower.

Second is the energy density. Currently, the energy density of domestic ternary lithium batteries is 255W·h/kg, and that of lithium iron phosphate is even lower, only 140 - 160W·h/kg. Therefore, the cruising range of domestic new energy vehicles is limited to the range of 500 to 650 kilometers, which is the ceiling achievable by physical laws.

The electrolyte of solid-state batteries is solid, with a higher density. Its energy density can reach 400W·h/kg, which means that under a certain vehicle weight, the cruising range of solid-state batteries is more than twice that of ternary lithium batteries, reaching 1,000 kilometers.

Finally is the low-temperature operating state. In low-temperature conditions, the cruising range of ternary lithium batteries, especially lithium iron phosphate batteries, will be greatly reduced, but solid-state batteries will not be affected at all and can maintain a long cruising range.

Fast charging, long cruising range, good low-temperature performance, and high safety. If solid-state batteries are launched, it will be a game-changer for power batteries such as ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate.

(Source: Internet) 

"Compared with existing lithium-ion batteries, solid electrolytes are non-flammable, have better high and low-temperature performance and environmental adaptability, and have higher safety and stability," Li Hong, the co-founder of Beijing Weilan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the media. Solid-state batteries are an important future technological direction.

[2] Accelerated Promotion of Solid-State Batteries

It can be said that solid-state batteries can solve most of the problems currently encountered by new energy vehicles, and they relieve consumers' anxiety about the cruising range when talking about electric cars.

The introduction of the new national standard has also accelerated the commercialization process of solid-state batteries. On March 28, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology formulated the mandatory national standard "Safety Requirements for Power Batteries for Electric Vehicles." The new national standard will come into effect on July 1, 2026.

Compared with the old national standard, the regulators clearly require that power batteries must pass 7 single-cell tests and 17 battery pack or system tests, upgrading the 5-minute pre-alarm before a power battery catches fire or explodes to no fire and no explosion.

The mandatory requirements of the new national standard exactly match the safety characteristics of solid-state batteries. Therefore, solid-state batteries are also regarded as the "ultimate power solution" for new energy vehicles.

(Source: Internet) 

Actually, since the new national standard was issued, major domestic power battery manufacturers and automobile brands have accelerated the development of solid-state batteries:

In May this year, Guoxuan High-Tech launched 6 new products, including the G Yuan quasi-solid-state battery and the Jinshi all-solid-state battery, and announced the completion of its first all-solid-state experimental production line;

On the 21st of the same month, Funeng Technology said that it would deliver small batches of sulfide all-solid-state batteries to strategic partners by the end of 2025;

In mid-June, Sunwoda said on the investor interaction platform that the company had further increased the energy density of solid-state batteries to 500Wh/kg by using lithium metal as the anode. Currently, there are laboratory prototype samples, and it is expected to complete the development of all-solid-state batteries with an energy density greater than 700Wh/kg by 2027;

In terms of automobile manufacturers, SAIC expects to mass-produce a new generation of solid-state batteries on the new MG4 by the end of the year; Toyota has clearly announced that it will start producing solid-state batteries in 2026; Changan Automobile said that it will complete the on-vehicle verification of solid-state batteries in 2026 and gradually mass-produce all-solid-state batteries with an energy density of 400Wh/kg in 2027;

"The implementation of the new national standard will undoubtedly accelerate the process of solid-state batteries moving from the laboratory to actual mass production," Huajin Securities said in a research report. The progress of installing solid-state batteries in vehicles is being advanced.

[3] Cost Becomes a Roadblock

From the statements of automobile manufacturers and power battery manufacturers, we can see that 2026 is the node for small-scale on-vehicle testing of solid-state batteries, and 2030 will be the first year for the large-scale implementation of solid-state batteries.

However, this does not mean that solid-state batteries can enter ordinary households because the biggest difficulty in popularizing solid-state batteries is not the technical bottleneck but the price.

How big is the cost gap between solid-state batteries and lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries? We can do a simple calculation:

Currently, the cost of liquid batteries is 0.5 yuan/Wh. Based on the common 60-kWh battery packs in the market, the cost of lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries is about 30,000 yuan;

The cost of lithium metal anodes exceeds 6 million yuan/ton. The material cost of solid-state batteries is 4 times that of liquid batteries, reaching 2 yuan/Wh. For a 60-kWh battery pack, the cost of solid-state batteries reaches 120,000 yuan, which is equivalent to the price of a new energy vehicle.

Some people say that this is just the initial stage of small-scale production, and the cost will drop significantly in the future with the large-scale production of solid-state batteries.

The answer is that it will be difficult to significantly reduce the cost in the short term because in addition to the raw material cost, the production process of solid-state batteries is more demanding, and the cost of equipment and factories is higher.

Compared with liquid batteries, solid-state batteries have higher requirements for the production environment, such as humidity. For example, the production of sulfide electrolytes for solid-state batteries requires a fully enclosed workshop with a humidity of less than 1%. The equipment investment is 40% higher than that of liquid battery production lines.

(Source: Internet) 

Whether it is the materials or the factory equipment, the high cost of solid-state batteries means that it is impossible to install them in a family car priced under 200,000 yuan. This means that for some time in the future, solid-state batteries will be exclusive to high-end cars, rather than Class A and Class B family electric cars.

"From 2027 to 2029 is the demonstration period for sulfide solid-state batteries, mainly targeting mid- to high-end electric vehicles," Sun Huajun, the CTO of BYD Lithium Battery Co., Ltd., revealed that it will take at least five to seven years for solid-state batteries represented by sulfides to be applied to mainstream household electric vehicles.

Solid-state batteries carry high hopes of breaking through the limitations of new energy vehicle range, safety, and performance. The feasibility of their technical path and the pace of industrial implementation are becoming increasingly clear. From breakthroughs in the laboratory to the accelerated layout of leading enterprises, especially the catalytic effect of the new national standard, all indicate that a revolutionary wave of power batteries is approaching.

However, the high cost is like a chasm between the ideal and the reality, limiting solid-state batteries to the "experimental field" of the high-end market in the short term. Although the technology is on the verge of success, the "mountain" of cost still needs to be continuously climbed by the industry. The popularization of solid-state batteries is destined to be a marathon driven by technological innovation and cost optimization. When the cost curve starts to decline, the era of "1,000-kilometer range" that truly benefits the public will dawn.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Siku Finance," written by Vincent, and published by 36Kr with permission.