Unveiling the "Volume"? Energy giants flock to perovskite.
“In 2016 and 2017, when we talked about perovskite, no one believed it. Only Zhu Gongshan, the chairman of GCL Group, was willing to invest money. Now, both existing photovoltaic enterprises and cross - border players are optimistic about perovskite.” said Fan Bin, the chairman of GCL Photovoltaic.
After graduating with a doctorate in 2010, Fan Bin devoted himself to the R & D of new - type photovoltaic cells and founded Xiamen Weihua Optoelectronics. He is one of the earliest people in China to engage in perovskite R & D and industrialization. At the end of 2016, after being acquired by GCL Group, Xiamen Weihua Optoelectronics became an independently operating subsidiary of GCL Technology under the group.
In the past three years, perovskite has been highly sought after in the photovoltaic industry due to its extremely high photoelectric conversion efficiency (the limit of single - junction perovskite cells is 33%, and that of tandem cells is 45%). Leading photovoltaic enterprises have all claimed to have made substantial investments in perovskite and continuously refreshed laboratory records, scaling up perovskite from square - centimeter level to square - meter level and increasing the photoelectric conversion efficiency from over 10% to over 20%. Start - up enterprises have also entered the field one after another, striving to seize the next big opportunity.
2025 is regarded as the first year of perovskite mass production. According to official company information, start - up enterprises such as GCL Photovoltaic, Xianna Photovoltaic, and Jidian Optoelectronics have all invested in building GW (gigawatt, 1GW = 1000MW) - scale production lines. In addition, each enterprise has also begun to explore the market space for perovskite. Considering the “involution” in the photovoltaic power station market, in the perovskite field, some enterprises have turned their market focus to more consumer - oriented areas from the start.
In Fan Bin's view, the enthusiasm of enterprises for perovskite lies in the realization that almost all investments in crystalline silicon result in losses, while the photovoltaic market is huge, making perovskite “the only choice”.
But does this mean that there will be a new round of “involution” in the perovskite field? Fan Bin is optimistic about this. He believes that it won't happen in the short term because “perovskite is much more complex than crystalline silicon”.
Mass Production Imminent
In the past three years, many leading photovoltaic enterprises and energy companies have flocked to the perovskite field. After continuous R & D and improvement, in 2025, the industry has successively reported the establishment of mass - production lines.
GCL Photovoltaic has set up a GW - scale large - format perovskite tandem module production base and expects to launch a 500MW (megawatt) production line within the year. GCL Photovoltaic said that this is currently the only industrial production line that combines large size and high efficiency.
Ren Shuo Optoelectronics announced that it has two 500MW production lines, which are planned to be operational within the year and put into production before the Spring Festival in 2026; Xianna Photovoltaic announced that it has two 500MW production lines, which were launched in June this year and are planned to be operational within the year.
Leading crystalline silicon cell enterprises such as LONGi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., Ltd., JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd., Trina Solar Co., Ltd., Chint New Energy, Huasheng New Energy, and Canadian Solar Inc. have all invested in the R & D of perovskite - crystalline silicon tandem cells, and some have built 100MW - scale production lines.
Trina Solar's chairman, Gao Jifan, once said that a perovskite pilot production line is planned to be built this year. Huasheng New Energy's chairman, Xu Xiaohua, once said that a 100MW perovskite production line has been built and the first batch of demonstration modules are expected to be delivered in the second half of the year to explore the technical path of heterojunction and perovskite tandem.
A relevant person in charge of LONGi Green Energy said that the theoretical efficiency limit of perovskite tandem cells can reach 43%, which is widely recognized as the mainstream technical solution to break through the efficiency limit of single - crystalline silicon cells. LONGi has always emphasized the complementarity between perovskite and crystalline silicon technologies. It will not blindly mass - produce technologies that have not passed long - term reliability verification. LONGi has proposed a “innovation + collaboration” strategy. On the one hand, it increases investment in frontier fields such as perovskite and hydrogen energy; on the other hand, it joins hands with global partners to build an open innovation ecosystem and promote the implementation of technologies.
Tongwei Co., Ltd. said that the efficiency of its perovskite tandem cells has reached 34.17%, and it has completed the equipment selection demonstration and layout planning for the megawatt - scale test line.
Many industry leading enterprises such as PetroChina, China National Nuclear Corporation, MingYang Smart Energy Group Limited, CATL, BYD, and BOE have also made cross - border layouts in perovskite, accelerating the construction of pilot lines and larger - scale production lines.
Industrial chain enterprises have also taken actions. Maiwei Co., Ltd., a leading photovoltaic equipment enterprise, said in the “Feasibility Analysis Report on the Use of Raised Funds for the Issuance of Convertible Corporate Bonds to Unspecified Objects” released on May 31 this year that it plans to raise 200 million yuan to invest in the industrialization project of perovskite tandem solar cell equipment. After the project is completed and reaches full production, it can achieve an annual output of 20 sets of equipment. “The implementation of this project will help the company quickly seize market opportunities, meet the production capacity construction needs of downstream customers, and enhance the company's profitability.” Maiwei Co., Ltd. said.
Market Space
Currently, many domestic perovskite enterprises target street lights, carports, etc. as their application scenarios. They hope to achieve large - scale application of perovskite by entering scenarios that are difficult to cover with existing crystalline silicon cells. Meanwhile, since it is easier to research, develop, and produce perovskite with smaller areas, this path is more friendly to start - up enterprises.
Fan Bin believes that there is definitely a certain market space for these application scenarios, but the market size itself is not very large.
Therefore, GCL Photovoltaic chooses to directly replace crystalline silicon modules in photovoltaic power stations. On December 25, 2023, the megawatt - scale perovskite photovoltaic power station of Huaneng Qinghai was officially put into operation. The first - phase capacity is about 1MW, and it can be expanded to 4MW later. It uses GCL Photovoltaic's 2mx1m perovskite modules.
Fan Bin told reporters: “The power station has been operating for more than a year, and there has been no (power) attenuation so far.”
Fan Bin believes that on the one hand, photovoltaic power stations require large - size modules (square meters), which are more difficult to develop. After GCL Photovoltaic completes the development of large - size modules, for small - size requirements, “it's just a matter of cutting them into small pieces”; on the other hand, with the development of photovoltaic power station technology, the requirements of photovoltaic power stations for modules are also changing. Now, they are more concerned about photoelectric conversion efficiency rather than cost.
According to Fan Bin, currently, the proportion of component costs in photovoltaic power stations is getting lower and lower, accounting for only about 10%, while the proportion of BOS (land, brackets, etc.) costs is getting higher and higher, reaching 90%. Further reducing component costs has little impact on reducing the cost of the entire photovoltaic system. “For example, if the cost of a system is 10 yuan, whether the component cost is 0.7 yuan or 0.8 yuan doesn't matter much.”
“But if the photoelectric conversion efficiency is improved, the system cost will be significantly reduced.” Fan Bin said.
The photoelectric conversion efficiency of commercially available crystalline silicon modules has not exceeded 26%. During SNEC, many photovoltaic enterprises released their latest crystalline silicon modules. For example, the efficiency of LONGi's HIBC (High - Low Temperature Composite Passivated Back Contact Technology) module is 25.9%, the maximum efficiency of JA Solar's module is 25.5%, that of JinkoSolar is 24.8%, and that of Trina Solar is 25.5%. Theoretically, the limit of the photoelectric conversion efficiency of single - junction perovskite cells is 33%, and that of tandem cells can reach 45%.
Fan Bin told reporters that theoretically, the production cost of perovskite is lower than that of crystalline silicon. However, the product cost of GCL Photovoltaic is still relatively high, mainly because its production capacity scale is still relatively small. Currently, GCL Photovoltaic only has a 100MW perovskite production line, “and the equipment and raw materials are very expensive”. According to Fan Bin, the orders for this production line are already full, and the annual sales are expected to reach the tens of millions level.
“Technological Innovation Happens Every Month”
In the past two or three years, crystalline silicon photovoltaics has undergone a technological route transformation from PERC (Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell) to TOPCon (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact Cell), BC (Back Contact Cell), and HJT (Heterojunction Cell).
All three technological routes have performance advantages over PERC, and it's hard to tell which one is better. In the end, TOPCon has achieved a market share of over 70%.
However, TOPCon has fallen into a serious dilemma of increasing production but not profits. In the past three years, the newly added TOPCon production capacity in China has been nearly 1000GW, more than twice the global total demand, resulting in the continuous decline of component prices below the cost line. Almost all enterprises have suffered losses.
An important reason for the “involution” in the photovoltaic industry is that on the supply side, photovoltaic industrial technology has become a common technology in the industry. The threshold for building a photovoltaic component factory with production capacity is not high. Some photovoltaic equipment factories even offer “turn - key” services.
Against the background of the successive entry of giants and equipment manufacturers, will the perovskite technological route follow the same old path?
Fan Bin told the Economic Observer that there is no sign that perovskite will enter the “involution” stage like TOPCon in the short term because “perovskite is much more complex than crystalline silicon”.
Fan Bin said that in the production process of crystalline silicon, there is no significant improvement in materials. It is always silicon materials and silicon wafers, while the raw materials of perovskite are composed of different molecules combined. Each new formula represents a new product.
Therefore, once there is a change in the raw materials of perovskite, the production equipment and production process need to be adapted, which requires the equipment to have strong flexible production capabilities.
“From PERC to TOPCon in crystalline silicon, only a thin film was added, and there was no major change in the raw materials. It was just an additional process. This level of technological improvement happens every month in the perovskite industry.” Fan Bin said.
After the preparation of perovskite, tandem is another difficult problem. Theoretically, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of single - junction perovskite cells is only 33%, far lower than the 45% of tandem cells. Almost no enterprise will choose the single - junction technological route.
Tandem means stacking two cells together to form a system. Since both ends of the cell generate electricity, precise control of both ends is necessary to achieve high photoelectric conversion efficiency.
Fan Bin told reporters that before 2018, his team also conducted many experiments on the two - terminal tandem technological route of coating perovskite on crystalline silicon, but later completely abandoned it and switched to the four - terminal technological route of coating perovskite and crystalline silicon cells on glass separately and then stacking them.
“We believe that the four - terminal technological route has high efficiency and good stability. In addition, it can be compatible with technologies such as TOPCon, BC, and heterojunction.” Fan Bin said.
Therefore, Fan Bin believes that neither TOPCon, BC, nor heterojunction represents a fundamental innovation in photovoltaic cells, while perovskite is a product from scratch with great upward potential. “When a product has no upward potential, there will be ‘involution’. Perovskite may reach this stage more than a decade later.”
This article is from the WeChat official account “Economic Observer”. Author: Pan Juntian. Republished by 36Kr with permission.