Lithography technology steps down from the “altar of divinity”.
“Lithography will no longer be that important.” As soon as this statement was made, it sparked huge controversy in the industry. This statement came from a senior executive at Intel.
The lithography machine has always been regarded as the lifeblood of semiconductor manufacturing. However, recent information released by several chip giants shows that lithography technology may no longer be the only option in the future. Even the highly sought - after High - NA EUV is mostly in an “idle” state.
01 High - NA EUV Lithography Machines Face Slow Sales
Last year, High - NA EUV was very popular.
According to ASML's official website, it assembled two TWINSCAN EXE:5000 high - numerical - aperture lithography systems. One of them was jointly developed by ASM and imec and will be installed in the joint laboratory of ASML and imec in 2024, with mass production expected in 2025. The other was ordered by Intel in 2018. In December 2023, ASML officially delivered the first batch of modules of the High - NA EUV lithography system, TWINSCAN EXE:5000, to Intel.
At the beginning of 2024, the main components of this lithography machine arrived at Intel. In November, TSMC said it would receive ASML's most advanced High - NA EUV lithography machine by the end of the year. In March 2025, Samsung introduced the first TWINSCAN EXE:5000 made by ASML in its Hwaseong campus in South Korea, becoming the third semiconductor manufacturer to purchase it after Intel and TSMC. Samsung also decided to use this technology in future DRAM production, and its competitor SK Hynix also has such a plan.
However, in practical applications, the chip giants have backed away from High - NA EUV.
In the previous plan, Intel might have been the earliest company to apply the High - NA EUV lithography machine.
Recently, Intel said that the first two cutting - edge lithography machines from ASML have been “put into production” in its factory. Data shows that they are more reliable than the early models. Steve Carson, a senior chief engineer at Intel, said that Intel used ASML's High - NAEUV lithography machine to produce 30,000 wafers in a quarter. These large silicon wafers can produce thousands of computing chips.
Intel plans to use High - NAEUV equipment to help develop the Intel 18A (1.8nm) manufacturing technology, which is scheduled to be mass - produced with the new - generation PC chips later this year. The company said it plans to fully utilize the High - NA EUV equipment in the production of the next - generation manufacturing technology, Intel 14A (1.4nm), but has not disclosed the mass - production date of this technology.
TSMC: It Will Take at Least 5 Years for Large - Scale Application of High - NA EUV
TSMC has always been relatively rational about High - NA EUV.
Previously, Zhang Xiaoqiang, the senior vice - president of business development at TSMC, said that although he was impressed by the capabilities of High - NA EUV, the equipment price exceeded 350 million euros (378 million US dollars). The current standard EUV lithography machines can still support TSMC's cutting - edge process production until 2026, and TSMC's cutting - edge process A16 will continue to use the standard EUV lithography machine for production.
At the recent TSMC Technology Forum Europe event held in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Zhang Xiaoqiang reiterated TSMC's long - term stance on the High - NA EUV lithography machine. The company's A16 (1.6nm class) and A14 (1.4nm class) process technologies will not use the High - NA EUV lithography machine.
It is reported that TSMC's technical team has found a way to produce chips at the A14 node without using the High - NA EUV lithography machine. Compared with the 13.5nm resolution of the standard low - numerical - aperture EUV system, this tool can provide an 8nm resolution.
Previously, TSMC said it was considering using the High - NA EUV lithography machine to produce A10 process chips, which is about two generations ahead of its planned 2nm process by the end of 2025. This also means that large - scale mass production of this machine will not be seen until after 2030.
Samsung Delays the Plan to Use High - NA EUV, Starting with 1.4nm Foundry
Although Samsung has introduced the High - NA EUV lithography machine, the company is not in a hurry to put it into use.
It is reported that both Samsung and its competitor SK Hynix have decided to postpone the introduction of High - NA EUV technology in DRAM production. The reasons are the high cost of the equipment and the upcoming change in the DRAM architecture, which makes memory manufacturers take a more cautious attitude towards High - NA EUV technology.
According to the plans of Samsung and SK Hynix, the DRAM architecture will develop in stages - from 6F² to 4F², and finally to 3DDRAM. The 4F² DRAM to be mass - produced before 2030 will require EUV technology processing and is expected to use High - NA EUV tools. However, different from traditional DRAM, 3D DRAM increases the transistor density through vertical stacking and does not necessarily require EUV technology, whether it is an ordinary EUV or a High - NAEUV tool, thus eliminating the need for EUV technology. This means that even if they invest in the High - NA EUV lithography machine, the window period for actual deployment in DRAM production may be relatively short.
Samsung will also introduce High - NA EUV technology into the production of logic chips and is evaluating its use in the 1.4nm process, with the goal of mass - production in 2027.
02 Etching Technology Becomes the New Focus
In semiconductor manufacturing, etching is the core process second only to lithography, which directly determines the performance, yield, and integration of chips. As the advanced process evolves to 3nm and below, the proportion of etching steps has soared from 10% in the traditional process to over 50% (for example, in the 5nm FinFET process, the number of etching times exceeds 150).
According to the discussion content disclosed by the investment research platform Tegus, an anonymous Intel director said, In the future, transistor design will reduce the dependence on advanced lithography equipment and instead enhance the core position of etching technology.
He believes that with the development of new structures such as the gate - all - around field - effect transistor and the complementary field - effect transistor (CFET), the overall demand for the lithography process in high - end chip manufacturing will weaken.
In the lithography process, ASML's EUV and High - NA lithography machines transfer the circuit design to the wafer. In the post - processing process, materials are added through the deposition process, and then the materials are selectively removed through the etching process to form the transistor structure.
This executive emphasized that the three - dimensional transistor structures such as GAAFET and CFET require “wrapping the gate from all directions”, making the lateral removal of excess materials crucial. “Manufacturers will focus more on removing materials through the etching process rather than extending the processing time of the wafer in the lithography machine to reduce the feature size.”
To put it simply, as the importance of the lateral direction in chip manufacturing increases, the importance of High - NA EUV is not as significant as that of EUV.
Meanwhile, chip etching companies such as Lam will play a more important role.
So, does it mean that the lithography machine is no longer important? Not really.
In the future, chip manufacturing will reduce its dependence on ASML's High - NAEUV lithography machine, but the industry's demand for this equipment is still quite large.
This executive said, “Around the 7nm technology node, EUV lithography played a crucial role, but such demand will decrease in the future. The reason is not only that we are exploring ingenious methods for lateral material removal and manipulation but also related to the wafer - to - wafer technology. Memory chip and logic chip manufacturers are no longer squeezing everything onto a single wafer, which greatly increases the manufacturing difficulty. Instead, they are starting to find ‘space’ on the back of the wafer or between wafers.
The effect of this is to reduce the dependence on the minimum feature size. After all, high - density integration can be achieved both in the vertical dimension and on a given plane. For example, instead of being limited to a flat ‘suburb’, we are building a ‘skyscraper’. When building a ‘skyscraper’, the demand for lithography still exists, but it is not as crucial as when building a ‘suburb’ (which relies on small feature sizes). We are not just compressing in one direction but trying to expand the space in two directions.”
03 How Far Can ASML's EUV Go?
Once the above views were put forward, the industry's attention to ASML reached a new level.
The industry mainly focuses on three questions: First, ASML's annual lithography machine shipment volume; second, the progress of its next - generation products; third, how far can ASML's EUV technology go?
Regarding the first question, ASML's 2024 financial report shows that it sold 418 lithography machines throughout the year, including 44 EUV lithography machines and 374 DUV lithography machines. In addition, it also sold 165 metrology and inspection systems.
In terms of revenue sources, the Chinese mainland contributed 10.195 billion euros (about 79.771 billion yuan) in revenue to ASML in 2024, accounting for as much as 36.1%, far ahead.
Followed by South Korea with 6.409 billion euros, accounting for 22.7%; the United States with 4.522 billion euros, accounting for 16.0%; Chinese Taiwan with 4.354 billion euros, accounting for 15.4%; Europe with 1.3 billion euros, accounting for 4.6%; and Japan with 1.156 billion euros, accounting for 4.1%.
ASML pointed out that the insufficient market demand and the unpreparedness of wafer fabs have led to the postponement of customers' demand for EUV lithography machines. However, the demand for DVU lithography machines still exceeds the delivery capacity, especially the demand from the Chinese market is very strong.
Regarding the second question, while successfully launching the High - NAEUV, ASML and Zeiss are also researching the next - generation Hyper NA EUV lithography system with a numerical aperture of 0.75 NA.
Jos Benschop said that the objective lens of the Hyper NA EUV lithography system does not necessarily have to be larger. “You can also place the last mirror closer to the chip, and you will get the same effect. The drawback is that more light will be reflected back - that's the case with mirrors.”
The Hyper NA EUV also has an advantage. A larger numerical aperture can handle more light, just like it is faster to empty a wide - necked bottle than a narrow - necked one. Therefore, the Hyper NA EUV can not only print clearer lines but also print faster.
According to the ASML's logic device process roadmap for the next 15 years previously disclosed by Martin van den Brink, the current standard EUV lithography machine with a 0.3NA can support the mass production of the 2nm process until 2025, and below that, multiple - exposure technology will be required. However, the 1.4nm process to be mass - produced in 2027 will be the limit.
Regarding the third question, according to the data from Research and Markets and Future Market Insights, ASML controls 75% to 80% of the global EUV lithography market, and its technology is unparalleled. ASML provides products for all major chip manufacturers and actually monopolizes the EUV system field, which contributes nearly a quarter of its total revenue.
ASML's EUV technology has reshaped the chip manufacturing industry and will likely remain in a key position for at least the next 10 to 20 years.
Of course, in this process, ASML also needs to face challenges from all parties in the industry.
04 New Lithography Technologies Are Emerging
In addition, currently, the EUV lithography machine of ASML uses the so - called laser - produced plasma EUV light source (EUV - LPP). However, as the semiconductor process continues to advance, EUV - LPP will also face more challenges. As an alternative to the LPP - EUV technology, in recent years, research institutions in countries such as the United States, China, and Japan have been developing the EUV light source (EUV - FEL) system based on the free - electron laser technology of the linear electron accelerator. This technology uses magnets to affect electrons and can produce light of any wavelength, and its light - source power is sufficient to support 10 to 20 EUV lithography machines simultaneously. This method can not only bypass the EUV - LPP technology route adopted by ASML but also significantly reduce the system cost of the EUV light source.
ASML also studied the EUV - FEL technology around 2015. Although this technology is effective, it does not meet the current needs. Because the particle accelerator is so large that it covers an entire building and is not suitable for the current wafer fabs. Moreover, once the EUV - FEL light source fails or needs maintenance, more than 10 production lines connected to this light source will face the problem of shutdown. For most chip manufacturers or wafer foundry manufacturers, if they only build a few wafer fabs in one area, there is no need to use such a heavy - duty light source.
The US startup Xlight reported that it hopes to connect the prototype of the EUV - FEL light source to the ASML machine in 2028.
The startup Lace LithographyAS (Bergen, Norway) is also developing a lithography technology that uses atoms emitted towards the surface to define features, and its resolution exceeds the limit of extreme - ultraviolet lithography technology.
The so - called BEUV by Lace Litho can theoretically achieve finer features, support the continuous miniaturization of transistors, and extend Moore's Law.
The traditional EUV system uses light with a wavelength of 13.5nm to form patterns on the wafer through a series of mirrors and masks. Atomic lithography technology can achieve direct maskless patterning, and its resolution is even smaller than that achievable by the wavelength - limited EUV system.
The company claims on its website, “By using atoms instead of light, we provide chip manufacturers with functions 15 years ahead of the current technology, with lower costs and lower energy consumption.”
In addition to the above technologies, new lithography technologies such as nano - imprint lithography and electron - beam lithography machines are also constantly developing. Nano - imprint lithography directly replicates the pattern onto the photoresist by means of an imprint mold. Compared with traditional lithography, it can achieve high - resolution pattern transfer at a lower cost and has been applied in some special fields. The electron - beam lithography machine can directly use the electron beam to draw patterns on the photoresist, which has extremely high resolution and flexibility and is particularly suitable for the manufacturing of small - batch, high - precision chips.
Although ASML currently has an advantage due to its mature industrial chain, large installed base, and stable customer relationships, the potential threats brought by emerging technologies cannot be ignored.