Youju Body is seeking financing at a valuation of 30 billion yuan.

It is said that an Embodied company project is entering the financing round with an estimated value of 30 billion yuan.

I believe I've known the market for several years, but this figure still surprised me. Just last month, this Embodied project completed a financing of 1.5 billion yuan, and the company's value has doubled from 5 billion yuan to 10 billion yuan.

Those who pay attention will quickly notice that this is a typical financing rhythm for Embodied projects at present. Every two or three months, two or three billion yuan is financed. With a high base value, the value can even be doubled. Moreover, a company value of 10 billion yuan seems to be an inevitable hurdle. In contrast, the previously common milestone - the 1 billion US dollars - seems like nothing in the Embodied industry. The reason is simple: After the Chinese New Year, the financing fever in the Embodied industry has increased significantly. Everyone is aiming for the "Club of 10 - billion - yuan Companies" and skipping the 1 - billion - US - dollar mark.

The above - mentioned Embodied project has a good reputation in the industry. Its strength lies in the area of the "brain" and on the path of the world model. It is not in the first league but rather a new entrant. Currently, it is a prevailing opinion in the industry that the VLA approach no longer works and that the world model is the new course. The increase in the company value of this Embodied project from 5 billion to 10 billion yuan has surely also benefited from the trend of the world model. Even Jim Fan, the chief scientist of NVIDIA, publicly stated at an event last month: "Rest in peace for VLA, long live the world model!"

01

But what can support a company to go from a company value of 10 billion yuan to 30 billion yuan? The answer is: The in - house production of robot bodies in its own factories.

First of all, in my humble opinion, this logic makes sense in business operations. A few months ago, I talked with an AI veteran (probably the most experienced in the industry). He gave me a firm assessment: "Processing only partial areas has no future."

The hardware and software of Embodied projects are strongly interconnected. They need to be adapted to different robot bodies and different scenarios on a case - by - case basis. Algorithms, models, and systems don't work as simply as in autonomous driving technology, where one approach fits all applications. Currently, it is generally recognized in the industry that the "cerebellum" and motion control capabilities are good and the supply chain is complete. The bottlenecks mainly lie in the data and the "brain". In addition, there are still many technical problems to be solved when it comes to the connection between the robot body, the model, and the scenario.

For an Embodied project characterized by a strong "brain", it is indeed a great challenge to focus on the production of robot bodies, but it is also a step to expand business boundaries and strengthen competitiveness. Given the fact that Embodied technology is not yet complete, this exploration is quite justifiable. Naturally, in the current market, there is an additional advantage: It is easier to tell a good story and obtain financing, which both conforms to the prevailing narrative and the attractiveness of the regions.

The problem is: If the company value of 30 billion yuan is correct, is the step perhaps too big? Is the primary market too insensitive to company values? There are not a few brave ones. For example, the company Lingxinqiaoshou completed a financing last month, and the company value is estimated at 20 billion yuan. Recently, a foreign media reported that the company value in the next financing round is already estimated at 42 billion yuan (6 billion US dollars).

This company - value curve makes investors restless. Recently, I talked with a partner of a technology VC. The company's capital is not very large, but it has achieved good results in the AI industry in recent years. At the end of the conversation, he said that he would like to be informed about good projects. This is similar to "Let's meet for coffee" in the industry, a polite way to reduce the distance. When I asked him which areas specifically interested him, he answered:

"The first three financing rounds, the earlier the better."

I had to laugh. Usually, when asked "What interests you?", the discussion is about areas and niches, such as robot bodies, the "brain", AI applications, or infrastructure. However, this investor went against the norm and focused on the investment stage. This deviant answer revealed the investors' fear of company values.

What do the first three financing rounds mean? It means that the costs are controllable, there is a chance for a high stake, and the investors have the initiative in terms of return, liquidity, and safety margin. Especially for popular projects, one can invest early and achieve a good price gain in a short time. The market for old shares is also good, which provides a lot of room. It almost means "Invest and win".

In the "big and unpredictable" investment period, there are many teams in popular industries whose company value starts at 50 million, 100 million yuan, or even 100 million US dollars. The small capital companies are the most affected. They have limited funds and no retreat route like the large capital companies. Early investment is almost the only solution. "Investing in the first three financing rounds" is not an exception but the initiative and even the survival limit for many investors.

02

Human feelings are not connected. However, at both ends of the business plan, entrepreneurs and investors experience the same fear of company values.

A young doctor from a top - tier university is preparing an Embodied project for core components. After the presentation, the investor only promised him a company value of 50 million yuan. The young man was very surprised and thought: "Something must be wrong here." He believed that he didn't have overly high expectations and had expected "at least 100 million yuan". A former senior employee of a leading Embodied company has rich experience. His business concept and team are basically ready. He plans to finance 100 million US dollars in the first financing round, but some investors find the company value too high.

Both the manufacturers of whole robots and the manufacturers of components, both the veterans and the young people, have expressed their frustration to me. What I see is a big gap behind the investment consensus, and it is even possible that the stronger the consensus is, the deeper the gap will be.

Neither pure rationality nor pure emotions can explain the above behaviors. In the complex motives, I have observed that two inevitable forces irritate the nerves of all players.

First, the comparison method is widely used. It is simple and rough and based on the principle 'If you can do it, I can do it too'.

The comparison method is not a new phenomenon. The primary markets are used to orienting themselves towards established brands in developed markets or listed companies in the secondary phase to set the upper limit of the company value. The prevailing company - value logic this year is: If companies like MuXiMoEr and Minimax have a market value of two or three hundred billion yuan, then for all popular topics, whether it is computing power chips, Embodied robots, or core components, investors are given the expectation that "once the company goes public, the market value will be at least 100 billion yuan". In addition, there is plenty of capital, the secondary market is open and inviting, and the pre - IPO phase is almost "guaranteed to make a profit" again. The primary markets, which lagged behind in recent years, now have a large profit margin again. The company values are generally the result of an irrational valuation.

Under these circumstances, it is inevitable that the company value deviates from the fundamental data, forms its own world, and is even mechanized. I've heard from investor friends that for AI hardware in the first three financing rounds, company values of 50 million, 100 million, and 150 million US dollars are usually set. For example, the company value of a company can double in a few months, and it is almost normal for a company to be able to finance in three financing rounds simultaneously. There are also companies that set a company value with the argument "The IPO application will be submitted soon". The reason sounds unassailable:

"Once the company goes public, the market value will be at least 100 billion yuan. Even if the company value is only a few billion yuan now, one can still make good money."

The FOMO emotion is so strong that some investors are even reserving shares in the pre - IPO round, which will only start next year.

The second force is that the narrative competition is greater than the product competition.

We often joke that the current consensus focuses on the "Fifteen - Five Industry" and the "Musk Industry". In fact, all topics such as artificial intelligence, Embodied intelligence, quantum computing, commercial space, etc. have one thing in common: These topics are all cutting - edge technologies, commercialization is still far away, and the technology is still in the research phase. Therefore, there is currently no unified, verifiable value - assessment standard, and one cannot decide who wins just based on the product or the technology. So the competition often spreads to resources, capital, politics, and even the public, such as storytelling ability, industry authority, PR power, etc.

The confusion in the primary market is not only due to the high technical threshold and the difficulty of understanding things. Some companies like to use all kinds of incomprehensible terms to emphasize novelty and cutting - edge status. The financing ability is regarded by the market as a "proof of strength". Since numbers are the most intuitive indicator, the highest company value and the largest financing are a strong signal to explain who the best player is when the future is not clear.

With a good story, one achieves a good company value, with the company value one gains influence, and with the influence one obtains more capital and resources. These factors reinforce each other and even form a certain cycle. The competition on the stage largely becomes a competition of who can increase the company value the fastest, who reaches 10 billion, 20 billion, or even 30 billion yuan first, who is the first to go public or the first listed stock in a region...

More important than the company value itself is the emerging competitive logic - whoever builds a market consensus first, takes on the "future - representing" mentality first, and is first and continuously supported by capital, resources, and the public, is more likely to take the initiative in the next round of competition.

The company value is both a result and a weapon.

This article is from the WeChat account "Touzhongwang". Author: Cao Weiyu. Published by 36Kr with permission.