Der Ölpreis steigt rapide. Kommt nun auch die Preissteigerungswelle für Elektromobile?

Recently, I suddenly feel a whole range of emotions when I look at the news from the Chinese automotive market.

The trigger was surely the "explosive" balance sheet of CATL. In 2025, the company achieved a turnover of 423.7 billion yuan, which corresponds to a 17% increase compared to the previous year. The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company amounted to 72.2 billion yuan, which corresponds to a 42% increase compared to the previous year. One has to admit that this money - attracting power is incredible.

Especially when most automakers have sunk into the quagmire of price competition and many brands are not even able to finance themselves. However, CATL, the absolute oligopolist in the battery field, has been doing better and better and making a lot of money. The contrast is really stark.

Naturally, this also indirectly proves in whose hands the power in the Chinese new - energy industry lies. In the era of traditional combustion engines, automakers were the rulers of the rules of the game and stood at the top of the ecosystem chain. However, in the era of intelligent electric vehicles, it is suppliers like CATL and Huawei that are the hidden big bosses behind the scenes.

The situation is just so stubborn.

The reason why I revealed these harsh realities at the beginning of the article is to better introduce the following content. I thought that the increase in the global oil price triggered by the conflict between the US and Iran would benefit the new - energy industry and possibly end the decline in sales in the first two months of this year, which was caused by policy fluctuations.

But the story doesn't seem to be going in the expected direction. Because there could be a tendency for electric vehicle prices to rise. Yes, you heard right, this time it's a "price - increase movement".

Actually, the Xingtu brand under Chery announced on March 5th that the official price of the Xingtu ET5 would be increased. The price of the high - end version, the 210 - laser - radar smart - premium model, will be increased by 5,000 yuan. After the adjustment, the official price of this version is 164,900 yuan.

This week, there has been more news. The new Geely ZEEKR 007GT, which is expected to be launched in the second quarter, will probably adjust its price based on the current version. The increase could be between 5,000 and 8,000 yuan.

Both automakers have explained that the reason for the price increase is the sharp rise in the prices of raw materials and core components. Here, I would like to try to discuss how dramatic this increase is.

First of all, the memory chips.

If one deeply analyzes the fluctuations that started last year, the problem mainly lies in the structural imbalance of global production capacity.

With the upswing in the field of artificial intelligence, the world's largest memory chip manufacturers, in order to achieve higher profits, have redirected more than 80% of their advanced production capacity to HBM high - bandwidth memory and high - end DDR5 products for AI servers and greatly reduced the production capacity for traditional memory chips such as automotive DDR4.

However, the purchasing shares and bargaining power of automakers are far behind those of technology giants. In the face of the capacity shift and the price - increase strategy of chip manufacturers, they have no way to resist and have to swallow the bitter fruits.

And how dramatic is the increase?

There is data showing that the price of DDR4 memories has increased by more than 150% in the past few months, and the price of high - end DDR5 memories has even exploded by 300%. Just the memory chips alone can increase the cost of an electric vehicle by 1,000 to 3,000 yuan. For brands with already low margins, this has a much greater impact than expected.

What's even worse, there are currently no signs of an improvement in the structural imbalance of production capacity. From the perspective of chip manufacturers, it will of course continue to follow the lucrative trends.

This means that automakers will still have to bear the pressure in the short term.

In the long run, automakers must definitely accelerate the process of domestic substitution of chips and strengthen their own research and development. Otherwise, they will always be led around in this field. "If others pinch your nose, you'll lose your nerve."

In addition, another factor behind the price - increase movement of electric vehicles is related to lithium carbonate.

It is well - known that batteries account for 30% to 50% of the total cost of a vehicle. One can say that they are almost synonymous with the "lifeblood", which also explains why there is the saying: "Except for BYD, the entire automotive market is working for CATL."

Recently, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has skyrocketed from about 75,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of last year to 171,900 yuan per ton in March this year. Although it has now fallen to 155,000 yuan per ton, it has almost doubled compared to before July 2025.

Let's still take the lithium - iron - phosphate battery as an example. The costs of battery cells and packaging have increased by 21% and 14% respectively compared to the fourth quarter of last year. It is estimated that the average battery cost per vehicle will increase by about 3,434 yuan.

Together with the costs of memory chips, the inflation rate of an average mid - sized electric vehicle this year is estimated to be 4,000 to 7,000 yuan. Even more worrying is that the gross margin of the industry may drop by 5% to 8%.

In the past, in a relatively healthy market, it was the common practice in the industry for automakers to appropriately adjust the prices of their products to offset the operating pressure caused by the increase in production costs.

But now, in the face of the increasingly fierce competition in the end - consumer market, automakers are hesitant. Although Xingtu and ZEEKR, as mentioned at the beginning, were the first to take action, most others still choose to take no measures.

Leading companies can mitigate the impacts through economies of scale and cost reduction in the supply chain. For laggards, who already have low risk resistance, this "price - increase movement" could be devastating. The increase in the costs of chips and batteries can completely devour their last remaining profits.

Recently, Cui Dongshu, the general secretary of the China Passenger Car Association, also shared a series of data: Last year, the sales margin of the automotive industry dropped to 4.1%, which is a historical low. Especially in December, which should normally have an upward trend, the margin dropped to only 1.8%, which corresponds to a decrease of 2.6% compared to the previous month and 2.3% compared to the previous year.

It is undoubtedly a dangerous signal. If the situation does not improve this year, surely many automakers will be dragged into the depths of "chronic blood loss".

Naturally, the possible "price - increase movement" of electric vehicles also indirectly confirms that the competition model based only on price competition and marketing campaigns is no longer sustainable. In the future, the competition between automakers will become a competition for the resilience of the supply chain, the ability of self - development of technologies, and the ability of industrial chain integration.

This also requires that everyone must participate in the steps of improvement and transformation. If one still leans back, one will probably be completely flattened by the fluctuations in the supply chain. After all, the rule still holds: In the new industry, the power is no longer in the hands of most automakers.

From the perspective of consumers, a wide - spread "price - increase movement" of electric vehicles is surely not a good sign. There will probably be another group of "waiters" again. Unfortunately, the current market situation is so contradictory and confusing. If the prices are not increased, automakers cannot survive. If the prices are increased, consumers will not buy the vehicles.

Building cars is really not a good business. Then I think of CATL's balance sheet again...

This article is from the WeChat account "Auto Community" (ID: iAUTO2010). Author: Cui Liwen. Published by 36Kr with permission.