SoftBank's Masayoshi Son has gone all - in with 200 billion.

Unprecedented.

On February 27th, OpenAI officially announced the completion of a $110 billion financing round, with a pre - investment valuation reaching an astonishing $730 billion (nearly 5 trillion RMB), setting the largest single financing record in the global venture capital history.

In the face of this astronomical figure, all previous unicorns pale in comparison.

Behind this crazy spectacle, there is no shortage of that man who loves to take big bets - Masayoshi Son. This time, he invested $30 billion in OpenAI, approximately 200 billion RMB, which is amazing. So far, SoftBank has cumulatively invested more than $64 billion in OpenAI, truly going "all - in" and staking it all.

Despite this grand occasion, a question still cannot be avoided: Is this the eve of a human technological revolution or an unprecedented AI bubble?

The Largest Financing in History

OpenAI's Valuation Exceeds Two Alibaba's

It seems that only OpenAI can break its own records.

In this unprecedented new $110 billion financing round, the list of investors is impressive: Amazon invested a whopping $50 billion, while NVIDIA and SoftBank each contributed $30 billion.

There is little doubt that Masayoshi Son went all out again and didn't miss this feast. After this deal was completed, SoftBank's cumulative investment in OpenAI exceeded $64 billion, and its shareholding ratio rose to 13%.

Specifically, SoftBank will inject $30 billion into OpenAI in three installments through the Vision Fund II. The first installment will arrive on April 1st, and the subsequent two installments will follow on July 1st and October 1st respectively. The relevant funds are expected to be initially paid through bridge loans and other arrangements from financial institutions, and will later be replaced with SoftBank's own assets and other financing.

Counting it up, Masayoshi Son was busy pouring money into OpenAI last year. First, he invested $7.5 billion at the beginning of the year; then, at the end of December, he made a large - scale additional investment of $22.5 billion (approximately 156.2 billion RMB). At that time, he became one of the largest external shareholders of OpenAI. It can be said that among the investors, Masayoshi Son was the most proactive.

The presence of NVIDIA is also quite significant. Its participation in this financing round was once shrouded in mystery. Not long ago, Jensen Huang personally came forward to dispel the rumor that "NVIDIA gave up on OpenAI" and firmly stated: "We will invest a large amount of money. I believe in OpenAI, and the work they are doing is incredible."

Amazon's entry into the game is more of a strategic move. This up - to - $50 billion investment is not a one - time deal but is divided into two stages: the first batch of investment is $15 billion, and another $35 billion will be invested in the next few months after certain conditions are met. According to The Information, the key condition depends on whether OpenAI can achieve general artificial intelligence or successfully go public by the end of the year.

Soon, simultaneously with the announcement of this financing round, Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, softened his stance again, indicating that OpenAI will choose to go public at an appropriate time.

"Artificial intelligence will be everywhere." Sam Altman's excitement about this deal was evident. He said that SoftBank, NVIDIA, and Amazon are its long - term partners with a common vision of bringing real scientific progress and tangible benefits to the world. He is glad to work together to achieve this goal.

In fact, the game is still going on. OpenAI said that as this financing round progresses, more financial investors are expected to join.

Masayoshi Son, All In

Going All - In

The gambler Masayoshi Son is going all - in again.

In a sense, this is a bet against time for Masayoshi Son. He once publicly mentioned that he had the intention to invest in OpenAI in its early days but was ultimately preempted by Microsoft. Investing heavily years later is somewhat of an attempt to make up for the regret.

This is not the first such regret. In the AI wave, another big winner is NVIDIA. SoftBank was once the largest shareholder of NVIDIA, holding nearly 5% of the shares. In 2019, Masayoshi Son sold 4.9% of his shares for about $4 billion. Looking back now, if he had held those shares until now, the potential value would have differed by more than $150 billion. This past event is almost the most heart - wrenching "selling too early" moment in Masayoshi Son's career, and it also made him and Jensen Huang sigh and cry together.

This time, he chose not to leave any room for retreat and went all - in completely.

To continuously increase his investment in OpenAI, SoftBank carried out a major reshuffle of its global asset portfolio last year: it sold all its NVIDIA shares for $5.8 billion, reduced its holdings in communication assets such as T - Mobile US, used Arm stocks to expand margin loans, and even suspended some acquisition negotiations... In just the fourth quarter, SoftBank added $27 billion in debt, clearly showing its determination to burn the boats.

A little - known detail is that Masayoshi Son's personal wealth is deeply tied to this high - stakes game.

It is reported that SoftBank's investment in OpenAI is not directly recorded on the company's balance sheet but is all completed through the Vision Fund II established in 2019. The fund borrowed $8.5 billion from SoftBank, and Masayoshi Son provided a personal guarantee of $1 billion and signed an agreement: when the fund's return rate exceeds 30%, Masayoshi Son will exclusively enjoy 17.25% of the profit share.

This was once regarded as a high - risk bet. After all, just a year ago, the Vision Fund had accumulated losses of about $23 billion due to multiple failed investments, and the book loss once approached 40% of the principal. According to SoftBank's latest financial report, this guarantee liability has been cancelled. Intriguingly, the long - term profit - sharing right still exists.

The turning point is OpenAI: as its valuation has risen, the losses of the Vision Fund II have been significantly narrowed, approaching the break - even point. Once OpenAI successfully goes public and its market value soars as expected, Masayoshi Son may personally gain billions of dollars in returns, and his return ratio will far exceed that of other SoftBank shareholders.

SoftBank's latest financial report shows that from April to December last year, it made a profit of $20.7 billion, about five times that of the same period last year, setting a record high for net profit. The main reason for the significant increase in profit is the gain brought about by the rise in OpenAI's valuation. This is undoubtedly a validation for Masayoshi Son.

"Artificial intelligence will be ten thousand times smarter than humans within a decade, and that will be a huge industry." At the shareholders' meeting, this 68 - year - old helmsman still said excitedly: "I was born to achieve this breakthrough."

However, Masayoshi Son's investment career has always been accompanied by extreme polarization: either he becomes a legend or fades into obscurity.

People won't forget that his $20 million investment in Alibaba was worth nearly $200 billion at its peak, which is regarded as one of the greatest investments in history. But equally unforgettable is his $18.5 billion investment in WeWork, only to watch it go bankrupt in the end, which was ridiculed as "the stupidest investment in history."

Now, standing at a new crossroads, almost nothing can stop him. Masayoshi Son clearly believes he has found "the next Alibaba."

Valuations in the Trillions

Beware of the Largest Bubble in History

Everyone wants to get a ticket to the AI era.

Just this month, Anthropic, founded by the Amodei siblings, completed a $30 billion financing round at a valuation of $380 billion, becoming the second - largest super - unicorn after OpenAI.

Also notable is Databricks, which announced the completion of a financing round of over $7 billion, with a valuation exceeding $134 billion (approximately 936.4 billion RMB), just one step away from a trillion - dollar valuation.

The latest development is that World Labs, an AI company founded by Fei - Fei Li, completed a new $1 billion (approximately 7 billion RMB) financing round. It's only been 16 months since World Labs was founded.

Behind these astonishing numbers is the investment institutions' uncontrollable "fear of missing out" (FOMO). The founder of private equity giant Thoma Bravo exclaimed: "Venture capital firms are flocking to any AI projects they can find, pushing the valuations of startups to astronomical figures."

Meanwhile, tech giants are also engaged in an unprecedented arms race. Just this year, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google will invest at least $670 billion in data center construction, a more than 70% increase compared to last year. This amount even exceeds the total annual GDP of Sweden or Israel.

As the expenditure continues to soar, an unclear question remains: Can their grand goals be achieved? What also causes market unease is the "circular financing" model formed between AI startups and chip and cloud - computing providers: investors not only provide funds but also bind computing power and infrastructure resources to ensure they can support ultra - large - scale computing needs. The potential risks are also obvious: if the actual AI computing power demand fails to meet expectations, the losses may be magnified exponentially, and even trigger the bursting of the "AI bubble," which could then affect the global market.

In response to the outside world's doubts about creating false prosperity through "self - dealing," Sam Altman tried to downplay the risks in a recent interview and frankly said: "I understand where this concern comes from. But this only makes sense when new revenues continuously flow into the entire AI ecosystem."

However, the market's reaction is more honest than words. The stock prices of Microsoft, Google, and Amazon all fell significantly after the release of their fourth - quarter reports. After the news of this sky - high financing was disclosed, the stock price of NVIDIA, a core player, fell instead of rising. As of the close, NVIDIA fell 4.16%, and its market value evaporated by $187.1 billion, equivalent to 1.28 trillion RMB.

Everything may just be the beginning. The chief investment officer of hedge fund Lone Pine Capital sighed that the bubble may not truly arrive until OpenAI and Anthropic become listed companies and AI applications are truly ubiquitous.

However, as Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, said, all bubbles in history have occurred during periods of technological upheaval. The key is to identify the signals of a bubble bursting.

Before that, the price of the ticket is still rising.

This article is from the WeChat official account “Investment World” (ID: pedaily2012), author: Wang Lu, published by 36Kr with authorization.