Medizinische Aussichten 2026: Hundert Unternehmen stehen in der Warteschlange für eine Börsengenehmigung in Hongkong. Kann der medizinische Sektor erneut ein "Mythos" schaffen?

Text | Hu Xiangyun, Hai Ruojing

Editor | Hai Ruojing

At the beginning of 2026, the medical field was quite lively, with both "booming" and "cooling down" scenarios playing out in the market simultaneously.

Medical device stocks such as Jingfeng Medical and Beixin Life went public one after another, showing a good upward trend. The brain-computer interface triggered a collective frenzy in both the primary and secondary markets. Borui Kang and Qiangnao Technology are sprinting for IPOs, and the valuation of another invasive brain-computer startup in Shanghai has also exceeded 4.5 billion yuan.

Now, more than a hundred medical companies are queuing up for listing in the Hong Kong stock market. Rumors that the IPO policy is about to tighten are widespread. Some industry insiders even believe that "a 30% break - even of new stocks will become the norm." So, what are the windows and opportunities for medical companies to go public in 2026? How are the companies planning to go public smartly coping with market risks?

Last year, the innovative drug sector created many wealth myths: the "subscription king" with a 6000 - fold new - share purchase, and the stock prices of more than a hundred companies doubling within the year. In 2026, more cornerstone and early - stage investors will have their shares unlocked one after another. After the emotions and glitz fade away, it still depends on hard strength to support the long - term market value. The scale and structure of BD transactions are still the key for the market to judge the quality of pharmaceutical companies and new drug molecules.

After a year of baptism, the capital market has become more rational in its reaction to the License - out of innovative drugs. It often happens that "BD transactions cannot drive up the stock price." In 2026, MNCs' enthusiasm for Chinese new drug assets remains undiminished. Besides the already crowded oncology field, which new directions are becoming the hotspots for major pharmaceutical companies to compete for?

Among the players in new drug BD licensing, AI - native biopharmaceutical companies cannot be underestimated. In the past month or so, Insilico Medicine, Huasheng Intelligent Medicine, etc. have frequently secured BD transactions. The valuation of a certain star AI - pharmaceutical startup in China has reached 3 billion US dollars. How do the veterans in the new drug field view the potential of "AI scientists" in drug development?

On the consumer side, "AI intelligent doctors" are rapidly changing the way the public seeks medical consultations and manages their health. Internet giants are eager to seize this super - entry point of health. At the same time, in the fields of consumer - grade medical devices and digital therapies, the large amount of data accumulated in the past has become the most precious "fuel" in the AI era, bringing new opportunities.

Compared with the innovative drug field's success, the medical device field is getting out of the doldrums at a relatively slower pace. Affected by the difficulty of going global and geopolitics, Chinese innovative medical devices have not yet entered the global asset pricing system like new drugs. Will the situation of Chinese innovative medical devices going global improve in 2026? Can the primary - market investment hit the bottom and rebound...

At the beginning of 2026, 36Kr interviewed nine investors and entrepreneurs in the medical and health field to address the above questions. Thanks to:

Xie Xin, Executive Director/Senior Vice - President of China Biopharmaceutical (01177.HK); Chen Bing, Vice - President of International Business Development, Cooperation and Strategic Investment at AstraZeneca; Liu Dan, Managing Partner of Pivotal bioVenture China (Biwo Investment Capital); Li Junhong, Partner of Longpan Capital; Yu Jianlin, Deputy General Manager of Gaotejia Investment Group; Sun Xiaolu, Founder/Managing Partner of Bilingxing Venture Capital; Yan Yi, Partner of Shuimu Venture Capital; Zhang Xiao, Founder of Syneron Bio; Qian Kun, Co - Founder of SenseTime Medical.

36Kr has summarized these insights into the top ten trends of 2026. Here are their detailed views:

1. The performance of new pharmaceutical IPOs in 2026 will be significantly differentiated. Many companies will launch Pre - IPO round financing to hedge against regulatory tightening and market risks

Xie Xin of China Biopharmaceutical: After the bubbles and reshuffles in the past two years, investors have become more mature and have higher requirements for IPO projects. Now, there are more than 400 enterprises queuing up in the Hong Kong stock market. The performance of IPOs in 2026 may be differentiated. Funds will flow to enterprises that have successful overseas BD cases/potential, are technologically leading in niche markets, and have clear product listing times and sales expectations (such as the peak revenue and profit of new drugs). On the contrary, enterprises without competitive advantages will face great pressure in IPO.

Liu Dan of Biwo Investment Capital: We have always been actively involved in the international placement of new drug enterprises in the Hong Kong stock market. At the end of 2025, we observed that several companies in the Hong Kong stock market broke even, and the market was briefly cold. However, the performances of Insilico Medicine, Ribobio Co., Ltd., etc. later made us believe that it was just a regular low - frequency trading period at the end of the year, rather than a systematic correction in the Hong Kong stock market.

We are quite optimistic about the IPO issuance in the Hong Kong stock market in 2026. The market will continue to move upward with slow twists and turns. Of course, the stock market situation is uncertain. Therefore, many companies will consider Crossover round financing to hedge against the issuance window and market adjustments. There are also signs of policy tightening and the orientation of supporting high - quality companies to go public. For example, for companies seeking A + H listing, if their market value in the A - share market is not high, they are more likely to encounter obstacles in subsequent Hong Kong stock listings.

Yan Yi of Shuimu Venture Capital: In 2026, there is a possibility that the IPO policy in the Hong Kong stock market will be tightened. Last year, many enterprises hedged against risks through Pre - IPO round financing. Many friends also consulted us about such projects. The valuation range of these companies is mostly between 300 million and 500 million US dollars, with an expected financing of about 50 million US dollars. It is recommended that for such projects, the focus should still be on analyzing the pipeline value of the enterprises, rather than chasing short - term listing expectations.

The IPO situation of Chinese biopharmaceutical enterprises in 2025 (Data source: Wind, Niukr Capital Research Institute)

2. The global share of China's new drug BD transaction volume will continue to increase. MNCs' enthusiasm for purchasing remains undiminished, but there is a trend of "good quality but not cheap price"

Chen Bing of AstraZeneca: Currently, both MNCs and local pharmaceutical companies are still actively promoting cooperation, and large - scale BD transactions will still occur in the future. The scale of BD transactions is mainly determined by the product life cycle, and there are relatively unified standards in the global market. For example, a product with a value of tens of billions of US dollars is suitable for mature global products; a product with a down - payment of one billion US dollars is suitable for products about to enter Phase III clinical trials; a product with a value of 100 million US dollars is suitable for Phase I clinical products; and a product with a value of tens of millions of US dollars is suitable for pre - clinical products.

The effect of BD on driving up the stock price depends on the situation. If an enterprise is considered by investors to have only one star product, a BD transaction can bring cash flow and stabilize the company's development, but it will also reduce the company's future imagination space. If an enterprise has a strong platform or multiple pipelines and only conducts a BD transaction for one of its products, investors will be optimistic about the platform's potential to continuously produce new pipelines, and there will still be a large investment space in the future.

Liu Dan of Biwo Investment Capital: Multinational pharmaceutical companies' enthusiasm for purchasing Chinese innovative drugs remains high. Last year, the total BD transaction volume of Chinese innovative drugs accounted for 50% of the global total. I think this proportion will continue to rise, but the year - on - year growth rate will slow down. One reason is the impact of geopolitics; the other is that the label of "good quality and low price" for Chinese new drugs has been somewhat weakened.

At the JPM in 2026, some multinational pharmaceutical companies and US - dollar funds mentioned that some Chinese pharmaceutical companies are relatively aggressive in "asking for high prices." In the past year, the valuation of Chinese new drug assets as a whole was in a reasonable range of "good cost - effectiveness." If they deliberately pursue "sky - high prices," it may damage the reputation of Chinese Biotechs globally and is not conducive to forming a benign ecological cycle between the Chinese and US pharmaceutical industries.

3. A new paradigm for oncology treatment has taken shape, and the field is crowded. New drugs related to autoimmune diseases, metabolism, and the central nervous system have attracted much attention

Chen Bing of AstraZeneca: In the past few years, multinational pharmaceutical companies were most eager to supplement their oncology pipelines and the related Modality innovations such as ADC and bispecific antibodies, which are exactly the areas where Chinese pharmaceutical companies have invested more in the past few years. Currently, the oncology field is quite crowded, and the data requirements will become higher and higher, such as more advanced clinical stages or more detailed and later - line data.

In the future, BD may extend from oncology to treatment fields such as autoimmune diseases and cardiovascular diseases. Complementary pipelines are expected to reach transactions at an earlier stage.

Xie Xin of China Biopharmaceutical: China Biopharmaceutical focuses on four major fields: oncology immunology, liver disease metabolism, respiratory antiviral, and external drugs. In 2026, while deeply cultivating these four fields, it will accelerate the development of chronic disease products such as those for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and the central nervous system. From the perspective of technical paths, we are concerned about small nucleic acids, ADC, bispecific antibodies, and technologies related to the central nervous system. We will also pay attention to immature technical paths such as in - vivo CAR - T, but we need to see more data on drug formation before taking action to balance risks.

Li Junhong of Longpan Capital: In the future, the treatment of advanced tumors may form a "triangle" combination: cytotoxicity (chemotherapy/ADC) + immunosuppression (PD - 1 monoclonal antibody/bispecific antibody, etc.) + immune activation (cytokines, etc.).

Tumor treatment should pursue OS (overall survival) benefits to achieve long - term survival or even cure for patients. Relying solely on immunosuppression to "release the brake" is not enough, and the beneficiary population is limited. Immune activation is also needed to "step on the accelerator" to mobilize the body's own immune function. Therefore, the development of tumor immune activators (such as PD - 1/IL - 2 fusion proteins, cytokines such as IL - 12/IL - 15/IL - 18, and the 4 - 1BB target) is one of the important directions in the future. The key lies in targeted delivery, controlled release, and balancing efficacy and toxicity.

The distribution of disease areas involved in China's innovative drug BD from 2016 to 2025 (Data source: Pharmcube)

4. The "miracle drugs" of GLP - 1 for blood sugar control and weight loss still have high value in reducing side effects and developing new indications through iteration

Chen Bing of AstraZeneca: Only a few enterprises will stand out in the GLP - 1 field in the end, and the core lies in clinical efficacy. Unlisted products need to find differentiated advantages. Firstly, optimize the administration form. Many people care about the pain and inconvenience caused by injections, so there is still room for oral formulations. Secondly, focus on efficacy, especially weight - loss effects and cardiovascular benefits. Thirdly, consider the administration frequency. Patients need products with a longer half - life and lower administration frequency. Fourthly, ensure long - term safety by reducing adverse reactions and rebound after drug withdrawal.

Liu Dan of Biwo Investment Capital: In the metabolic field, the value of the GLP - 1 target goes far beyond weight loss. Future R & D iterations will focus on two dimensions. One is dual - target or multi - target drugs to overcome the limitations such as side effects of existing single - target drugs. The other is to explore its potential for expanded treatment in metabolic - related liver diseases, kidney diseases, and other indications.

5. AI - based drug discovery has not yet disrupted human efforts. The concentration of leading companies is obvious. In 2026, it will receive more financing and BD, and "those who possess data will dominate the world" in drug formation

Zhang Xiao of Syneron Bio: At the JPM Conference in 2026, "AI" and "China" were the most important keywords, and Chinese AI - based drug discovery companies were the core focus of MNCs. This year, more good news about BD transactions of Chinese AI - based drug discovery companies will be announced. Currently, the overall enthusiasm for financing of AI - based drug discovery companies is relatively high, but the concentration effect among leading companies is obvious. Only two or three companies are highly sought after, and many other companies may still face relatively great challenges in financing.

Technically, with the enrichment of data and the breakthrough in basic model capabilities, the capabilities of AI in molecular design, target evaluation, etc. are continuously evolving and improving. However, it will still take some time to achieve very disruptive results or results far beyond human capabilities. On the regulatory side, the US FDA is very actively embracing AI and innovating the drug review methods and processes, which will bring benefits.

Chen Bing of AstraZeneca: Whether "AI - based drug discovery" is successful or not ultimately depends on its druggability and clinical value, rather than just how much optimization is achieved in a certain link. From the perspective of drug formation, I think AI has a greater chance of expanding new indications for already - marketed drugs. Because there is enough past data available for AI to learn and analyze, but the drug patent period and regulatory requirements need to be considered.

Xie Xin of China Biopharmaceutical: Last year, funds began to flow back into the domestic AI - based drug discovery field, and we have also established an AI team of more than a hundred people. I believe that it is an inevitable trend for molecules independently designed by AI to be approved for marketing, but the core is that "those who possess data will dominate the world." The data reserve determines the effectiveness of clinical progress and product implementation.

6. The AI dividend will be released first in the consumer medical device field. AI - based consultations and digital therapies will face great opportunities

Sun Xiaolu of Bilingxing Venture Capital: In areas such as new drug R & D, medical devices, and digital therapies, AI has already penetrated deeply. Many innovative medical device products have applied intelligent and automated solutions to varying degrees. There are also new opportunities in digital therapies. The technology is becoming more mature, and the value of clinical treatment is truly emerging. Recently, the regulatory side has issued registration certificates, and doctors are also very willing to try them.

Yan Yi of Shuimu Venture Capital: We believe that the AI dividend will be released first in the consumer medical field, such as ventilators and sleep monitors. Because the improvement of product effectiveness brought by AI makes C - end consumers willing to pay for more precise home medical devices. Many consumer medical devices are equipped with built - in sensors that can collect physiological data in real - time. Now, various multi - modal models can activate a large amount of health data and make them truly valuable.

In terms of medical consultations and health information retrieval, the changes brought by AI will far exceed expectations. AI - based consultations can respond to health problems more professionally and accurately. The greatest benefit is to make high - quality medical information more accessible to the public and help individual users develop better health habits.

In terms of competition, AI currently has two aspects: basic model capabilities and