Multiple automakers have announced their sales targets for 2026.

The implementation of the policy to halve the purchase tax on new energy vehicles and the adjustment and continuation of the "two new" subsidy policies have brought new variables to the domestic automobile market in 2026.

Against this backdrop, the 2026 sales targets disclosed by multiple automobile manufacturers have shown completely opposite trends. Traditional automakers that are still in the process of comprehensive intelligent and electric transformation, bear a large amount of legacy assets from the fuel - vehicle era, and have a relatively large sales base generally set relatively cautious growth targets. In contrast, new car - making companies are more optimistic about the market. Among them, Leapmotor and Xiaomi Auto, both of which exceeded their KPIs in 2025, have set their sales target growth rates for this year at 68% and 34% respectively. NIO, aiming to achieve full - year profitability in 2026, also has an annual target growth rate as high as 40 - 50%.

Traditional Automakers: Geely Sets the Highest Target, Great Wall Has the Largest Growth Rate

After achieving its adjusted full - year target in 2025, Geely Auto has set its target for this year at 3.45 million vehicles, with a growth rate of 14%. It has become the automaker with the highest sales target among those that have disclosed their 2026 sales targets so far. Among them, the Geely brand aims for 2.75 million vehicles, Zeekr for 300,000 vehicles, and Lynk & Co for 400,000 vehicles. In the new energy field, Geely Auto aims to sell 2.22 million new energy vehicles in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 32%, which means its new energy penetration rate will increase from 55.8% last year to 64.3%.

Although Dongfeng Group, currently ranked second in terms of sales targets, has not disclosed its full - year sales data for 2025, based on the cumulative sales of 2.204 million vehicles in the first 11 months, its total sales in 2025 are estimated to be about 2.5 million vehicles. As an independent new energy brand under Dongfeng, Voyah delivered a cumulative total of 150,169 vehicles in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 87%; Mengshi sold a cumulative total of 10,228 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 387%; and Yipai Technology sold a cumulative total of 275,752 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 28%. Driven by these three brands, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles of Dongfeng Group reached 1.04 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21%. At the same time, the cumulative sales of self - owned brands exceeded 1.5 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of more than 9%, accounting for more than 60% of the total sales.

Dongfeng Group has set a target of 3.25 million vehicles for its total automobile sales in 2026, with a target growth rate that may exceed 30%. Among them, 1.7 million are new energy vehicles, a 63% increase; and 600,000 are for export. This target is relatively aggressive compared to other traditional automakers.

Chery Group aims to sell 3.2 million vehicles in 2026, a 14% increase compared to 2025. Its five major brands under Chery Auto will aim to achieve a sales target of 3 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In 2025, Chery Group sold a cumulative total of 2.806 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. Among them, Chery Auto sold 2.631 million vehicles throughout the year, a year - on - year increase of 8%.

Great Wall Motor, which has failed to meet its annual targets for many consecutive years, has lowered the performance assessment target for its 2026 employee stock ownership plan. It has reduced the original planned automobile sales assessment target for 2026 from no less than 2.49 million vehicles to no less than 1.8 million vehicles, a 36% increase compared to last year's actual sales. The net profit assessment target (no less than 10 billion yuan) remains unchanged.

Data shows that Great Wall Motor sold a cumulative total of 1.324 million vehicles in 2025, and 404,000 new energy vehicles. If calculated based on the 2025 sales target of 4 million vehicles set by Great Wall Motor Chairman Wei Jianjun in 2021, it only achieved 30% of the target in 2025, and the proportion of new energy vehicle sales was less than 30%.

The industry generally believes that Great Wall Motor's strategy of sacrificing some sales to protect profits has led it to lower its sales target once again.

New Car - Makers: Leapmotor Is the Most Aggressive, Xiaomi "Prematurely Launches" New Cars

As Leapmotor, which achieved ten consecutive monthly sales championships among new - force automakers in 2025, delivered a cumulative total of 597,000 vehicles last year, a year - on - year increase of 103.1%, setting a new annual sales record for new - force automakers. When disclosing its 2025 report card, Leapmotor Chairman Zhu Jiangming once again emphasized the 2026 delivery target. "Looking forward to 2026, we will strive for one million vehicle sales. In terms of products, new models of the A - series and D - series will also be launched one after another."

After achieving a cumulative sales volume of 410,000 vehicles last year thanks to the popularity of its second model, the Xiaomi YU7, Xiaomi Group Chairman Lei Jun announced in a live - stream in early January that Xiaomi Auto's sales target for 2026 is 550,000 vehicles, more than a 30% increase compared to last year's actual sales.

On January 7th, Xiaomi announced that its new - generation SU7 is expected to be launched in April 2026, with a pre - sale price starting from 225,900 yuan. All models of the new - generation Xiaomi SU7 come standard with flagship - level assisted - driving hardware, including lidar, 4D millimeter - wave radar, and a chip with 700 TOPS of computing power. In terms of cruising range, the standard version has been upgraded to 720 km, the Max version to 835 km, and the Pro version to 902 km.

"The sales target for 2026 is to maintain a steady growth rate of 40% - 50% and improve the quality of growth." NIO Chairman Li Bin revealed the target growth rate for this year at the offline ceremony of the 1 millionth mass - produced vehicle on January 6th. NIO sold a cumulative total of 326,000 vehicles in 2025. Based on this, its sales target for 2026 is 456,000 - 489,000 vehicles.

"The industry competition is fierce every year, but last year's anti - involution measures were very effective, which has added confidence to this year's development. In addition, the early introduction of the replacement subsidy policy this year has played a positive role." Regarding the relatively optimistic growth expectation, Li Bin said that NIO will launch several new models this year, including the NIO ES9 and the LeDao L80.

On December 30th, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Implementing the Policy of Large - Scale Equipment Replacement and Trade - in of Consumer Goods in 2026", which will continue to support the scrapping and replacement of automobiles and the trade - in of automobiles. This policy has offset the impact of the policy to halve the purchase tax on new energy vehicles and has become the "ballast stone" for the stable growth of the automobile market this year.

"The subsidy policy has exceeded expectations and is conducive to the smooth transition of policies and the promotion of consumption upgrading. Due to the adjustment of subsidy rhythms in various regions at the end of last year, the automobile market stagnated relatively. This problem will be effectively solved in 2026." Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, predicted that the automobile market in 2026 will show a trend of "low at the beginning and high at the end", achieving a good start for the 14th Five - Year Plan. "Previously, it was expected that the policy might shrink next year, and the automobile market might experience negative growth. However, in 2026, thanks to the strong national policies, overall sales will be driven to grow better."

Cui Dongshu judged that the overall growth rate of the automobile market in 2026 will be higher than zero growth, and it is expected to achieve a "good start" in January.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Growth Enterprise Market Observation", author: Xu Hao, published by 36Kr with authorization.