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The first stage of the Zhuque-3 and Changzheng-12A rockets could not be recovered as planned. Many people thought that this would pour cold water on the booming business in the commercial space sector.

However, the reaction of the capital market was surprising. The prices of relevant stocks and ETFs continued to rise instead of falling, and there were even cases where stock prices doubled within a few days.

Behind this contradictory phenomenon actually lies a revaluation of the market's understanding of the development models of cutting - edge technologies.

On the difficult path of reusable rockets, a single recovery failure is far less significant than the rapidly developing technological path that we know so far.

The logic of using success and failure as the yardstick for evaluation has been refuted here.

The "dual - track model" established by the Chinese commercial space industry is very attractive to investors.

On the one hand, there is the "state - owned team" that has accumulated in - depth experience over decades. It provides a solid engineering system, launch site resources, and experience in mission organization as the foundation. On the other hand, there are private enterprises with flexible mechanisms that focus on product development and cost control. They drive technological development and error - tolerant iteration at a faster pace.

The parallel existence of both forms a strong system resilience that ensures that technological development is not interrupted by individual setbacks.

More importantly, the market has perceived a clear signal of "acceleration".

From state - level policy support and action plans to the stock exchange rules specifically adapted for commercial rocket companies and the accumulation of leading enterprises in the IPO process - all these measures clearly show that the entire social system is systematically investing resources, rules, and expectations in this promising sector.

The industry is quickly shifting from isolated laboratory successes to a new stage of industrialization, capitalization, and sustainable iteration.

In a sense, the rise in stock prices is therefore a logical trend and an advance payment for future success. Investors are investing in China's national will to break through the "cost barrier" in space and gain precedence in the next - generation infrastructure; in the comprehensive driving effect of space technology on the entire high - tech manufacturing; and in an exciting new technological journey that the whole nation can participate in through the capital market.

Currently, more Chinese reusable rockets are already ready and waiting for verification.

The change in the mentality of the whole nation from onlookers to participants

There was a time when spaceflight was a national wonder on TV.

It was perfect, distant, and error - free.

When there was success, we celebrated together, while the difficulties and obstacles in the process were often carefully hidden and unknown to the public.

The public played the role of open - minded onlookers, recipients, and celebrators of the final results.

This was a "looking - up" relationship based on absolute trust.

But today, commercial spaceflight has completely changed this relationship through an unexpected interface - the capital market. It has transformed this state - level top - notch project into a process in which ordinary people can actually "participate".

You don't have to be a scientist or an engineer. You can buy stocks or relevant funds of a rocket company with a click. Your money, together with that of millions of people, becomes the fuel source for the next rocket launch and the next attempt.

This is a new type of "presence". We are no longer just the onlookers looking up at miracles but part of the process.

The core of this participation is a collective consent and willingness to pay for "error tolerance" that has never existed before.

In the past, many people subconsciously expected "error - free" results in high - tech fields like spaceflight.

But in today's market - driven business development, we are not paying for a specific success but for the "right to continuous error tolerance".

Let's look at SpaceX on the other side of the ocean. Its early years were a series of spectacular explosions. But the capital market understood the underlying rapid iteration and learning logic of engineering and showed amazing patience.

Today, the Chinese capital market shows the same depth of understanding.

This marks that a mature national economy and its people are beginning to really understand the inner laws of top - notch innovation. When exploring the limits of human capabilities, the biggest cost factor is often not a single failure but the hesitation, caution, and stagnation of iteration due to the fear of failure.

Therefore, the market's reaction to the failed return flight of the first stage of the Zhuque - 3 or Changzheng - 12A was not panic selling but even more intense attention. Because people are not only investing in this company but also in the certainty that the next rocket launch will take place soon and in the clearly visible, continuously accelerating test - flight rhythm.

Failure is no longer the unspeakable end but becomes a "high - value data point" that is analyzed, dissected, and will inevitably lead to the next improvement.

The public jointly provides the financial guarantee for this precious "right to learn" and "right to progress" through the capital market.

Moreover, commercial spaceflight obviously plays an indispensable role as an "emotion carrier" in the current era.

Why is this so? We can all feel the current market environment.

Many foreign large - scale enterprises are withdrawing from China. There are already significant cracks at the bottom of the pyramid of domestic enterprises. Layoffs, bankruptcies, and salary cuts are all too common.

When many traditional economic growth stories are facing challenges and people are striving to find a new narrative that can build consensus and arouse pride, commercial spaceflight appears in a timely manner.

It is fundamentally different from the Internet model innovations we are familiar with. It is a hard, physical, and fascinating innovation characterized by heavy machine aesthetics and complex systems. Every rocket launch, regardless of whether the recovery is successful or not, becomes a "demonstration of national capabilities" that is followed by the whole nation from the moment the rocket takes off from the ground.

It directly shows the height that a country has reached in basic and central industrial capabilities such as materials science, propulsion technology, precision manufacturing, and system control.

In essence, the rise in the prices of relevant stock concepts is a strong release and resonance of collective social emotions and national self - confidence in the huge "resonance chamber" of the financial market.

People are investing in the tangible "feeling of strength" and in the real trust in the country's ability to be at the forefront of the technological level.

The reason why this trust remains firm even in the face of setbacks is that the market is casting a vote of confidence in the "resilience of the Chinese space industry system" rather than betting on the individual success of a particular company.

The successive recovery failures have not led to a collapse of market confidence but have instead triggered a broader rise. Behind this lies a key understanding - the market trusts in a solid, dense, and multi - layered national space industry system.

This system includes both the engineering capabilities, quality assurance and management culture, and immeasurable technological potential accumulated by the "state - owned team" over decades and proven through numerous important missions, as well as the agility, cost - consciousness, and pioneering innovation culture brought by emerging private enterprises.

The two are not in a replacement relationship but form a "dual - drive system" or even a "safety net".

People have a higher awareness and generally know that when a private enterprise encounters technical bottlenecks, the experience of the state - owned team can serve as a reference; when the state - owned team explores new paths, the flexible system of private enterprises can act as a pioneer. This "systematic" approach significantly reduces the risk of the entire technological path being interrupted.

From this perspective, the attachment to this concept is actually the preference for the ability of this huge system to ultimately solve problems and the high probability of long - term profitability of the "system" itself. People trust that all engineering problems that arise in this system will be solved after a sufficient number of iterations.

This trust in system resilience is the basis for the market sentiment to overcome short - term fluctuations and remain optimistic in the long run.

The fierce value revolution

The flow of money in the market does not always depend only on beliefs or empty speculations. It must find a direction in the real economy.

This direction is the personnel, factories, and industrial chain in the real economy.

Psychologically, we must "believe", and then enterprises must translate this "belief" into real monetary investments. Only in this way can new jobs be created, technology be improved, and even the economic landscape of some regions be changed.

Only then is there the possibility of sustainable growth or an upward trend.

According to the current development and trend, the force of the integration of capital and trust is reshaping the foundation of the Chinese manufacturing industry in three directions.

The most direct change takes place in the labor market.

Commercial spaceflight creates a new professional group, which we can call "high - qualified engineers" or "top - notch manufacturing experts".

Previously, the best path for top - notch scientists and engineers was often the financial sector, the Internet, or the laboratory.

Now, the rocket - building industry offers another possibility.

People are needed who can both understand the deepest theories and perform the most precise actions.

For example, the assembly of rocket engines does not simply mean tightening screws but requires "assembly experts" who have a deep understanding of fluid mechanics, materials science, and extreme precision. The welders for the rocket shell must know that each weld affects the viability of the rocket under extreme conditions. Flight control algorithm engineers and recovery experts must process a huge amount of data in seconds and make life - critical decisions - they are like "on - site scientists".

These positions offer high salaries and respect, and since they rely heavily on practical experience and complex judgments, they are difficult to outsource or replace with machines.

In fact, this provides a top - notch career option for the large group of Chinese engineers and effectively avoids the "brain drain" during the modernization of the manufacturing industry. It is not only about creating jobs but also about re - orienting the employment map for top - notch personnel to attract the smartest minds from the virtual economy back to the industrial front lines where real breakthroughs can be achieved.

And more important than creating jobs is the driving effect on the entire industrial system.

Commercial spaceflight is like an extremely demanding "main examiner" that tests and improves numerous suppliers in the upstream value chain with its extreme requirements for performance, reliability, and cost. The success of a rocket depends on the joint development of hundreds of enterprises in terms of materials, technologies, and components.

If a rocket needs a lighter and stronger housing, it will drive the development of composite material technologies. If the engine has to withstand higher temperatures, special alloys and precision manufacturing must keep up. If the control system needs more reliable sensors and valves, the standard of the entire precision instrument industry will be raised. The deep reason why the capital market is so enthusiastic is that it is betting on these "core suppliers" in the upstream value chain.

It is like a pike whose swimming raises the water level of the entire high - tech manufacturing industry.

The technologies, techniques, and management standards developed for spaceflight will naturally expand to other industries once they are mature - large aircraft, aircraft engines, electric vehicles, high - sea ships, and even precise medical devices will benefit from it.

In a sense, whether a single rocket can be recovered is not the only factor. It is more about comprehensively improving the entire foundation of the Chinese manufacturing industry through this difficult area.

Moreover, this change will transform the geographical economic landscape of China and give rise to new industrial locations.

To meet the future requirements for frequent and flexible commercial rocket launches, new rocket launch sites are being built in places like Haiyang in Shandong and Xiangshan in Ningbo, Zhejiang. This is not just a new location for rocket launches. It means that around the launch site, the final assembly and testing of rockets, the production of key components, specialized research institutes, and data service companies will gather to form a knowledge - and capital - intensive new industrial cluster.

The logic of this arrangement has changed. It is no longer simply based on traditional resources or historical foundations but on a comprehensive evaluation of personnel reserves, industrial chain synergies, political support, and geographical location. It brings new, promising economic driving forces to these regions and aims to attract top - notch personnel and capital and create leading bases for global space competition.

From this perspective, although the economy will grow quantitatively, the development model will change qualitatively.

Therefore, the rise in stock prices in the commercial spaceflight industry seems at first glance to be the pursuit of a concept, but in reality, it is an alternative value creation by the market for a profound "industrial reorganization". It indicates that