Hinter dem „Serienstart“ chinesischer kommerzieller Raketen...

The launch frequency of domestic commercial rockets continues to accelerate, and the trend of "batch launches into space" has emerged.

At noon on the 19th, the Jielong-1 Y8 carrier rocket of Zhongke Aerospace was launched at the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Experimental Area. Using the method of "one rocket carrying three satellites", it successfully sent satellites such as Zhongke Satellite 03 and 04 into the predetermined orbit, and the launch mission was a success. In addition, only in August this year, 9 commercial launch missions were completed in China, and the annual schedule for civilian and commercial rockets is planned to be at least 20 times.

Recently, there have also been frequent developments in the global commercial space sector. Recently, SpaceX's Starship V2 completed its 11th flight test, marking continuous breakthroughs in reusable technology in international commercial space. This progress has also set new coordinates for global industrial competition.

However, behind the excitement, multiple real bottlenecks hidden in the industry are becoming increasingly prominent. Reporters from Venture Capital Daily interviewed several industry experts to elaborate on the current industrial dilemmas from the dimensions of technological breakthroughs, industrial chain support, and ecological construction.

At the technical level, the commercial closed-loop of reusable technology has not yet been formed. An executive who has long been engaged in aerospace technology R & D in the industry pointed out to reporters from Venture Capital Daily that rocket reuse is a complex project integrating technologies in multiple fields such as return navigation, variable thrust, and recovery. Although the "Yuanxingzhe-1" of Jianyuan Technology in China achieved a soft landing recovery at sea and Deep Blue Aerospace completed the test run of a hundred - ton - class engine, there is still an essential gap compared with the mature "recovery - reuse - iteration" model formed by SpaceX.

The above - mentioned executive added that currently, most domestic enterprises are still at the stage of single - technology verification. The number of rocket reuse times, recovery success rate, and cost - control effect all lack practical tests. The Starship has achieved precise booster landing and on - orbit payload release through 11 test flights. "This generational gap in technological maturity directly leads to the fact that the carrying capacity of domestic main - stream commercial rockets is difficult to meet the large - scale networking needs of low - orbit constellations. In this context, it is urgent to penetrate the 'cost mystery' and focus on the real challenges and breakthrough paths of recoverable and reusable technology."

Behind the "Batch Launches into Space" of Commercial Rockets

Li Yongpeng, the secretary of the board of directors of iSpace, analyzed for reporters from Venture Capital Daily that in just the first 25 days of August, China completed 9 launches. If the launch frequency is maintained at this rate every month, it can approach 100 launches per year.

"These 8 launches involve 8 models and 5 launch sites. By using multiple types of rockets and multiple launch sites simultaneously to make up for the insufficient launch frequency of a single - type rocket and a single launch site, China's commercial space industry has truly entered the fast lane."

However, behind the continuous record - breaking of launch frequency and the number of satellites sent into orbit, it is necessary to clearly examine the deep - seated gaps and problems in the industry. Many people simply attribute the development bottleneck to "the rocket launch cost is not low enough", but this perception obviously fails to touch the core.

After communicating with several industry executives, reporters from Venture Capital Daily learned that in fact, the serious shortage of carrying capacity supply is the core crux restricting the large - scale development of the industry, and the cost problem is more of a result derived from the insufficient carrying capacity.

Currently, the carrying capacity of Chinese and American rockets differs by about four to six times. According to public data, the low - Earth - orbit carrying capacity of SpaceX's Starship in the United States can reach about 150 tons. The most powerful carrier rocket in active service in China is the Long March 5, with a low - Earth - orbit carrying capacity of about 25 tons. From this comparison, the gap in rocket carrying capacity between China and the United States reaches about six times.

Currently, China is actively developing heavy - lift carrier rocket technology. According to relevant plans, the Long March 9 is expected to be developed before 2035. Its maximum low - orbit carrying capacity can reach 150 tons, and its Earth - Moon transfer orbit capacity can reach 50 tons, which will be comparable to the carrying capacity of heavy - lift rockets such as the US Starship at that time.

Yang Yiqiang, the chairman and president of Zhongke Aerospace, told reporters from Venture Capital Daily that currently, the launch quotation of Zhongke Aerospace's solid rockets is about 60,000 to 70,000 yuan per kilogram. Affected by the launch mode, the price of the company's whole - rocket charter is relatively lower because the payload is exclusive. The unit cost of piggyback launches will be higher because it is necessary to coordinate the adaptation of multiple payloads and the launch plan.

"However, with technological iteration, in the future, the Jielong - 2 liquid rocket of Zhongke Aerospace is expected to reduce the launch cost to more than 20,000 yuan per kilogram, approaching the international mainstream low - cost level, thanks to its reusable technology (the designed number of reuse times is more than 20), better propellant cost (the cost of liquid propellants is much lower than that of solid propellants), and structural optimization."

An industry insider in the commercial space sector also told reporters from Venture Capital Daily that currently, there are obvious differences in domestic satellite launch costs. The mainstream commercial launch quotations are concentrated at 50,000 - 100,000 yuan per kilogram, but for some small rockets or special - orbit launches, the cost can still reach 150,000 yuan per kilogram. Calculated in this way, the launch cost of a 500 - kilogram satellite may reach up to 75 million yuan.

What is even more noteworthy is that in the field of small and medium - sized satellites such as low - orbit remote sensing and communication, with the maturity of satellite manufacturing technology and cost optimization, the manufacturing cost of some 500 - kilogram satellites can be controlled at 50 - 60 million yuan. This means that in specific scenarios, the satellite launch cost may even exceed its own manufacturing cost, becoming one of the important factors restricting the large - scale deployment of satellites.

Currently, the rocket launch costs in China and the United States vary significantly due to factors such as rocket models, launch methods, and reusability.

In China, according to public information, the average cost of the Long March 3B carrier rocket for 5 missions in 2023 was 390 million yuan per mission. Calculated based on a carrying capacity of 5.5 tons, it is about 70,900 yuan per kilogram; the procurement price of the Long March 2D carrier rocket by Changguang Satellite in 2022 was 113 million yuan per mission. Calculated based on a carrying capacity of 4 tons, it is about 28,200 yuan per kilogram.

In the United States, the launch cost of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket in the fully reusable state is about 2,000 - 2,500 US dollars per kilogram (equivalent to 14,000 - 18,000 yuan per kilogram). When the booster recovery is not considered, the cost is slightly higher but still lower than 28,000 yuan per kilogram; while the launch costs of small - satellite launch companies such as Rocket Lab and Astra are relatively high, about 30,000 - 40,000 US dollars per kilogram (equivalent to 210,000 - 280,000 yuan per kilogram).

This comparison means that improving carrying capacity and reuse rate is the key to reducing costs.

Reusable Rockets Are the Key to Solving the Problem of Insufficient Carrying Capacity

The major part of rocket cost lies in the engine and the rocket body, and the cost of the first - stage rocket body accounts for more than 70%. Therefore, it is the key to reducing launch costs. If rockets can be recovered and reused, the cost of each launch can be averaged, thus significantly reducing the launch cost. However, currently, the technology of reusable rockets in China is still in the catching - up stage.

Tian Yaosi, the secretary of the Party committee of LandSpace, told reporters from Venture Capital Daily that enterprises such as the commercial rocket company of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, LandSpace, Galaxy Space, and Zhongke Aerospace have all deployed the research and development of recoverable and reusable rockets (although the progress and technical routes of each enterprise vary). Among them, LandSpace's Zhuque - 3 is planned to complete its first flight and recovery in the fourth quarter of this year. Driven by leading enterprises in China's commercial space industry, the entire industry is accelerating from "single - use" to a new stage of "recovery and reuse".

Tian Yaosi further summarized that to support the future constellation networking of tens of thousands of satellites, the industry urgently needs to develop carrier rockets with high frequency, low cost, high reliability, and large carrying capacity that are suitable for China's national conditions. Specifically, such rockets should have large - scale carrying capacity, reusability, high reliability, and rapid response capabilities.

"The future development of China's commercial space industry not only depends on the breakthrough of carrier rockets but also requires the comprehensive upgrading of basic capabilities such as satellites and launch sites. On this basis, a space transportation service system with high cost - performance, high - frequency launches, and risk - sharing should be formed, and a partnership that matches the overall development needs of the industry should be established to jointly promote the maturity and growth of the commercial space ecosystem." From this perspective, rather than saying that "insufficient rocket carrying capacity is the biggest current bottleneck", it is better to say that China's commercial space industry is in the final painful period that must be experienced before the full - scale outbreak of the industrial chain.

Li Yongpeng also believes that from the practical perspective of commercial rocket enterprises, rocket carrying capacity is one of the important bottlenecks restricting the large - scale development of the industry, but it is not the only or the "biggest" systematic bottleneck at the current stage.

"The issue of insufficient carrying capacity depends on the comparison object. Compared with the world's most advanced level, there is obviously a gap; at the current time, the existing rocket production capacity and reliability still have a gap compared with the explosive demand, and more R & D and production investment are needed. However, the basic conditions to meet the phased and large - scale networking needs have been established."

Li Yongpeng further said, "According to the development trend of the world's space industry, to support the constellation networking of tens of thousands of satellites, rockets that can be reliably recovered must be developed to significantly reduce the launch cost and increase the launch frequency. If viewed statically, the current production capacity and launch price are difficult to meet the explosive demand in the next 2 - 3 years. It is expected that in the next one to two years, there will be obvious progress in China's reusable rockets. With the development of reusable rockets, the situation of 'too many satellites and too few rockets' in the next 2 - 3 years can be significantly alleviated."

Multiple Enterprises Are Intensively Promoting Vertical Recovery Verification

Currently, liquid - fueled recoverable rockets have become the core development direction for solving the problem of reusable rockets.

Liquid - fueled recoverable rockets specifically refer to rockets that "use liquid propellants, have main engines that can be started multiple times + deep - variable thrust, and fly back the first stage/whole rocket by means of vertical reverse thrust or winged gliding".

Generally speaking, its advantages are high specific impulse, adjustable thrust, which is convenient for real - time trajectory and thrust optimization, and high landing accuracy; the "high - value components" such as the engine and the airframe are concentrated in the first stage, and the economic benefits after recovery are the greatest; the number of reuse times is large (the Falcon 9 Block - 5 is designed for 10 - 100 times), and the cost per kilogram in low - Earth orbit can be reduced to 1,000 - 2,500 US dollars, a reduction of 70 - 90% compared with traditional single - use rockets.

Although solid rockets and hybrid rockets can also be "partially reused" through methods such as parachute landing, limited by non - adjustable thrust, large landing impact, and complex maintenance, the reuse benefits are far less than those of the liquid - fueled route, so they receive less market attention.

Therefore, currently, the global commercial space industry regards "liquid + vertical recovery" as the mainstream path to achieve high - frequency, large - carrying - capacity, and low - cost launches.

Currently, the progress of vertical recovery technology verification of many domestic companies in this field is rapid.

Li Yongpeng introduced that in late 2023, iSpace completed the verification of technologies related to vertical recovery and rocket reuse through the first full - scale vertical take - off and landing test of the first stage of a rocket and the reuse and recovery test in China; at the same time, the Hyperbola - 3 reusable carrier rocket of the company for constellation networking is also expected to conduct orbit - entry and recovery verification in about a year. Domestic companies such as LandSpace and Shanghai Aerospace have also carried out relevant technology verifications.

Tian Yaosi said that in the early stage, in the field of recoverable and reusable rockets, companies such as the Eighth Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, LandSpace, iSpace, and Jianyuan Technology have carried out vertical take - off and landing recovery tests of different scales. Among them, LandSpace has successively completed two vertical take - off and landing recovery tests at the 100 - meter and 10,000 - meter levels, fully verifying the key technologies and product capabilities in the rocket recovery process. According to the R & D plans released by multiple companies, several types of reusable rockets in China are planned to carry out flight and recovery missions before the first half of 2026.

"Judging from the actual work progress, LandSpace's Zhuque - 3 rocket is very likely to achieve China's first orbit - entry and recovery of a reusable rocket in the fourth quarter of 2025, creating a new record in China's space development."

Yang Yiqiang also introduced to reporters from Venture Capital Daily that Zhongke Aerospace has made important progress in liquid - fueled recoverable rockets. Its main product, the Jielong - 2 carrier rocket, is planned to make its maiden flight in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The maiden flight of the Jielong - 2 will be a non - recovery type. The main power of the core first - stage module is equipped with 3 YF - 102 liquid - oxygen kerosene engines, and the main power of the core second stage uses 1 YF - 102V liquid - oxygen kerosene engine. The subsequent recovery type will use the Liqing - 2 liquid - oxygen kerosene engine independently developed by Zhongke Aerospace. Currently, the maiden flight rocket of the Jielong - 2 has completed the overall assembly of the whole rocket and entered the general testing stage.

Yang Yiqiang further said that currently, Zhongke Aerospace has broken through multiple scientific problems and key technologies in reusable technology, and the semi - system test run of the Liqing - 2 engine has also been successful.

It is worth mentioning that mass - production capacity has also become one of the key ways to solve the problem of insufficient carrying capacity. Yang Yiqiang further analyzed that currently, for these domestic private rocket companies, the real key to competition is no longer simply to compete for which company's "second - generation rockets" - that is, medium - and large - sized liquid rockets with a carrying capacity of several tons to dozens of tons - will make their maiden flights first. The more core competition lies in which company can build up its mass - production capacity the fastest after a successful maiden flight.

Currently, the large - scale networking demand for satellite Internet is imminent. Relying solely on single - launch technology verification is far from enough. Only by forming large - scale production capacity can the high - frequency launch demand be met.

Currently, the super factory of the Jielong - 2 can reach an annual production capacity of 20 medium - and large - sized liquid rockets; after the production base of iSpace was established, it has planned an annual production capacity of 20 Hyperbola - 3 rockets; Tianbing Technology has also built a manufacturing system with an annual production capacity of 30 Tianlong - 3 rockets through the layout of "three centers and five platforms".

Realizing the leap from "single - test" to real "batch - delivery" ability may be the core competitiveness that determines whether an enterprise can seize industry opportunities.

This article is from the WeChat public account "Venture Capital Daily", author: Li Mingming, published by 36Kr with authorization.