Wenn die Blase platzt, wird das kommerzielle Weltraumfahrtgeschäft erfolgreich.

In the summer of 2023, CVC held a closed - door seminar on "commercial space" in Chengdu.

At that time, the hottest buzzword in the venture capital circle was "hard technology". People generally believed that "model innovation" only brought about "hype" and "pseudo - demands", and only industrial innovation driven by technological progress was the real opportunity. Among all the discussions about "hard technology", "commercial space" was highly regarded. On the one hand, it was truly high - tech—people would immediately think of Star Wars and Interstellar when talking about it, which had a very tangible sense of the future. On the other hand, there were already successful cases. The most famous unicorn in commercial space, SpaceX, had completed 29 rounds of financing from its establishment to 2023, with a total cumulative financing of up to $9.8 billion, pushing its overall market value close to $150 billion.

Under such an atmosphere, "commercial space" became a recognized trillion - level track. Meanwhile, as an industrial development direction, "commercial space" was also written into numerous development plans. For example, the Chengdu government regarded "commercial space" as a "key link" in the action of building industrial clusters and strengthening industrial chains. It had successively compiled five strategic plans, including the Construction Plan for the Aerospace Industry Ecosystem in Chengdu (2019 - 2025) and the Exploration and Practice Research on the Aerospace Industry Ecosystem in Chengdu.

This was the most direct reason for us to hold a closed - door meeting on "commercial space", and it also determined the main topics of that meeting: What was the actual development status of this highly anticipated track? How far was commercial space from becoming a "profitable business" that could generate stable income?

Two years have passed since then. Looking back now, many of the predictions made at that time have started to come true. For instance, some startups in the commercial space track are vying to become the "first listed company". With the improvement of launch capacity and the reduction of capacity costs, the progress of the "Starnet" constellation deployment has also accelerated significantly. From July 27th to August 17th, 2025, "Starnet" completed 5 consecutive launch missions in 21 days, launching a total of 38 satellites. Moreover, licenses for satellite Internet will be officially issued, and the era of commercial operation of satellite Internet is about to begin.

Not long ago, Galaxy Power, a private rocket company with the most rocket launches and the best success rate in China, completed a Series D financing of 2.4 billion yuan, setting a new financing record for private rocket companies in China. Its shareholders include local state - owned assets from Beijing, Nanjing, Sichuan and other places, as well as market - oriented funds such as Plum Ventures, Yuanhang Capital, and Puhua Capital.

However, two years later, people's attention seems to have shifted away from "commercial space". Both capital and public opinion have turned to new hot topics such as intelligent driving and embodied intelligence. People often say "voting with their feet". The focus of capital and public opinion is inevitably "limited", which may imply to some extent that commercial space has lacked remarkable development in the past two years and is still a long way from the goal of "truly making money".

I don't know the answer, so I invited a guest who participated in the seminar two years ago to talk about the current situation and future of commercial space.

Guest in the dialogue: Fu Yunhao, who has been in the commercial space industry for more than a decade

"Every year is the first year, but no one makes money every year"

Xiaoyejiang: How did you get into the commercial space industry, Brother Hao?

Fu Yunhao: I graduated from the School of Aeronautics at Beihang University. I studied aeronautics both as an undergraduate and a postgraduate, which means I studied airplanes. After graduation, I wanted to work in Beijing, but there weren't many good aviation - related companies in Beijing, so I went to the First Academy of Aerospace—also known as the Rocket Academy. As someone who studied aeronautics, I ended up working on rockets.

At the Rocket Academy, I worked on technology for a few years and then switched to the administrative department to manage scientific research projects. At that time, I got in touch with many advanced technologies in our country. Around 2016 and 2017, the commercial space industry in China began to emerge, and I started to have some ideas. An early partner of "OneSpace" (a Chinese commercial rocket company) approached me, but I hesitated for about a year or two. Eventually, I decided to take a risk and prove my value.

Coincidentally, my senior from Beihang University, Yang Feng, the CEO of Spacety, had done a great job in developing the company. So I joined Spacety and officially entered the commercial space industry. I've been in this industry for more than a decade. I've thought about starting my own business, but finally, I decided to do something I'm more interested in. So now, besides my work, I also host a podcast. The main purpose is to introduce our industry to relevant departments and investors, specifically to explain how this industry can be implemented. When people talk about space, they always think it's something "lofty and unattainable", so I think it's necessary to introduce this industry from a "down - to - earth" perspective. That's why the podcast is called Technology Grounding Device.

Xiaoyejiang: It seems that you're playing the role of a translator.

Fu Yunhao: Yes. I position myself as both a "promoter of implementation" and a "translator", or you can say a "translator - officer".

Pu Fan: Your experience of entering the industry is quite typical. At least from my experience at the closed - door meeting in 2023, most commercial space entrepreneurs first worked on large - scale rocket and satellite projects in large - scale institutions and then started their own businesses.

Xiaoyejiang: When did you realize that commercial space had become a startup track?

Fu Yunhao: It was around 2016 and 2017 when I saw some commercial companies emerging. At that time, because I was still in a large - scale institution, I instinctively thought that space - related work should be done within the system. For example, the "Long March" series of rockets and some classified projects. I thought it was impossible for so - called entrepreneurs to get involved in the space industry. But indeed, there were people investing in it.

I remember very clearly that there was a rocket company that received 20 million yuan in angel - round financing. The first thing the company said to the investors was, "We need to be prepared not to make money for 20 years in this industry." Although it seems like a small amount now, at that time, my first reaction was that it was amazing (that someone would invest), and I thought 20 million yuan was a huge amount.

Xiaoyejiang: What happened in 2016 that made capital enter this track?

Fu Yunhao: People said that 2015 or 2016 was the first year of China's commercial space industry, which started with documents such as the National Medium - and Long - Term Development Plan for Civil Space Infrastructure (2015 - 2025) and the China's Space Program in 2016 white paper. These documents mentioned that private capital was allowed to enter the space industry. After reading the content, people thought that the country might encourage them to enter the space field.

Pu Fan: But at that time, in my stereotype, there were only a handful of VCs that could understand commercial space. The ones we can name, such as Zhongke Chuangxing, have a research - institute nature; Yuanhang Capital has a strong academic background with many Beihang University alumni.

Fu Yunhao: Yes, we can say that there were almost no market - oriented investors. An entrepreneur often tells a story that in the early days when he went for financing, many people, whether state - owned investors or VCs, thought he was a fraud, even in places where the development of commercial space in China is very active now.

Xiaoyejiang: Whenever I hear about the "first year", I always think of the old saying—"Every year is the first year, but no one makes money every year".

Pu Fan: That's right. The commercial space industry is like this. Every year is said to be the first year, but no one makes money. Last week, Titanium Media published an article saying that the commercial space industry is on the verge of an explosion. I said that we also said it was on the verge two years ago, and now this "verge" period has been too long.

Fu Yunhao: The darkness before dawn has been too long.

"Starnet" is the lifesaver for all commercial space stories

Xiaoyejiang: When did you think that commercial space startups started to show some signs of success?

Fu Yunhao: It coincided with the time when I left the large - scale institution. I left the institution in 2018, and I thought I was well - prepared. My idea was simple. I wanted to go to a commercial space startup to "strengthen internal capabilities", and I also had a dream of starting my own business.

However, it was not until the "Starnet" project emerged that people really saw commercial opportunities.

Previously, the market was still uncertain. After the emergence of "Starnet", I think it provided a very clear goal for everyone. Rocket companies can tell stories about launch capacity targeting "Starnet", satellite companies can tell stories about being suppliers to "Starnet", and many upstream component manufacturers can tell stories about being important links in the industrial chain. This is of great significance to our entire industry.

Of course, whether its story will succeed or not, I believe it will, but it still needs time. So I think the "Starnet" event is quite crucial.

Xiaoyejiang: What was your personal feeling at that time?

Fu Yunhao: At that time, I really felt what a "blue ocean" meant. New companies emerged every few days. People were telling stories about satellites and rockets, and there were almost no competitors. I even had an illusion that I could raise funds just by getting a few people together and telling a story.

Of course, this was wishful thinking. In short, my feeling was that more and more people were coming to stake their claims, new concepts were emerging, and they could really raise a large amount of funds. Especially at that time, Galaxy Aerospace was valued at 3.5 billion yuan in its angel - round financing, which I thought was extremely exaggerated. During the real boom period in 2018 and 2019, I think it was the peak of the commercial space industry. You could just tell a story, but it might not work a few years later.

Last year was tough, but this year the hard times are over

Pu Fan: So when CVC held the commercial space closed - door meeting in 2023, although it seemed that the future was bright, did you front - line practitioners actually feel a bit exhausted?

Fu Yunhao: To be honest, we were quite calm in 2023. We were even not very optimistic about "Starnet" because in that situation, we thought "Starnet" was progressing too slowly, and its future was uncertain. So our overall feeling was that the commercial space industry had experienced both a peak and a trough from 2018 to now. Compared with last year, the overall situation this year has improved significantly.

Pu Fan: Why do you think last year was not good? Could you elaborate?

Fu Yunhao: First of all, there was no new progress in the "Starnet" project. For those companies that were not involved in "Starnet", their business also didn't make much progress. They seemed to be in a small circle, helping each other and just telling stories without reaching the end - customers.

This year, the situation has improved a lot. First of all, the economic situation in our country has improved, and there is more liquidity in the market. Secondly, the constellation deployment plans of the "Starnet" and "Thousand - Sail" projects have accelerated. Thirdly, there has also been good progress in the rocket field. People have a better idea of reducing launch costs. So I think the entire industry has entered a stage of rising from a trough.

Xiaoyejiang: Compared with 2018, have there been any changes in the business models and the buyer's market of commercial space companies?

Fu Yunhao: Currently, in the domestic commercial space field, a group of companies are targeting the national "Starnet" and "Thousand - Sail" plans. Their goal is very clear—to enter the supply chain system of these large - scale customers. Even if they fail to win the bid for now, they are willing to invest actively and continue with R & D because once they get involved, there will be opportunities for future cooperation. This is an established development direction.

Another type of commercial satellite companies that are not involved in "Starnet", such as Spacety, Changguang Satellite, and the company I work for, Elliptical Space, are more focused on the industry - specific market. In the early days, people tried to imitate the mature foreign models and mainly relied on selling satellite data for profit. However, the problem was that there were too few people in China who understood satellite data and could provide industry - specific solutions. So commercial satellite companies had to extend downstream and directly provide value to end - industries. After changing their thinking, people realized that satellite data had to be integrated with drones and ground - based equipment to form a complete industry - specific solution.

Of course, there are still some companies that insist on only selling data. But at present, the market space for simply selling data is very limited.

There is more money, better policies, and more mature technologies

Pu Fan: Besides commercialization, what do you think is the most significant change in the commercial space industry this year compared with 2023?

Fu Yunhao: I think there have been very significant changes. Although it is still a relatively niche field, it has truly entered the fast - lane of industrialization. Many industries have started to recognize the value of "satellites", and for many industries, satellite - based solutions have become quite mature. Specifically, I can talk about the changes from four aspects:

First, at the policy level. Around 2016, as mentioned earlier, a series of relevant documents showed that the country's attitude was mainly to encourage and support. After 2023, in many national - level policy documents, commercial space has been clearly defined as a "strategic emerging industry" and a "new growth engine". From the central government to local governments, very specific support policies have been introduced, including many specific R & D subsidy policies, and many new industrial funds have been introduced, which are not as general as before.

Different regions have also developed industrial clusters with different focuses. For example, in Beijing, there is a pattern of "rockets in the south and satellites in the north", with rocket - related work in the south and satellite - related work in the north; Wenchang has China's Wenchang Satellite Launch Center, which can take advantage of its geographical location to focus on commercial launches; the sea - based launch in Haiyang, Shandong, is also a major feature. Everyone is finding their ecological niches based on their own advantages.

Second, at the capital level. Around 2016, although there was some capital attention on commercial space, it was very limited. Many market - oriented capital stopped investing after trying for a while—there were many reasons, for example, the space industry is not suitable for foreign investment. Now, whether at the local or national level, many industrial funds are flowing into this direction, and the industry has more funds. The overall financing scale disclosed last year exceeded 20 billion yuan, which is a large amount and set a new record. Recently, companies like Landspace, Deep Blue Aerospace, and last year's Micro - Nano Star, have all raised a large amount of funds, not only with large amounts but also from large - scale investors.

The injection of large - scale capital has directly led to a result: there seem to be more than a dozen unicorn - level companies in China's commercial space field. Moreover, Guoxing Aerospace applied for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at the beginning of the year and recently updated its prospectus; companies like Landspace, Interstellar Glory, and CAS Space are also preparing for listing.

This indicates that commercial space has become an independent sector in the capital market and is developing towards a large - scale and mature industry.