Rundtischgespräch: Wie kann die Investition in die neue Energiebranche den Zyklus überstehen, angesichts der Bedrohung des Kapazitätsüberschusses? | 36Kr Zukunftskonferenz für die Industrie 2025

On September 10, the 2025 36Kr Industrial Future Conference, hosted by 36Kr, grandly kicked off in Xiamen, China. This conference has joined hands with the "China International Fair for Investment and Trade" hosted by the Ministry of Commerce. With the core theme of "Precision Cultivation Era, Surging Jiahua", it strives to create a high - specification, high - value, and high - influence industrial event that combines national height, industrial depth, and market popularity.

The conference closely aligns with national strategic orientations and the forefront of industrial development. It focuses on five core sectors: artificial intelligence, low - altitude economy, advanced manufacturing, new energy, and mass consumption. It brings together top industry players to discuss development paths and envision the future of the industry. During the two - day agenda, with the "industrial cooperation chain" as the logical main line, the conference focuses on the collaborative mechanism among the government, capital, and industry. It delves into how to break down barriers, integrate resources, and precisely solve the pain points, blockages, and bottlenecks in industrial development.

36Kr organized a round - table discussion titled "Under the Cloud of Overcapacity, How Can New Energy Investments Navigate the Cycle?" at the Industrial Future Conference. Yang Jiaying, Managing Director of Zhaoshi Capital [Host], Liu Xiaokang, Deputy Director of the Executive Committee of Orient Securities Capital, Gu Xiaoli, Partner of CMC Capital, and Cao Shuyang, Founding Partner of Haichuan Capital, several industry experts, jointly discussed how to address the new challenges of overcapacity after the energy industry has entered the stage of large - scale and industrialized development.

The following is the content of the round - table discussion, compiled and edited by 36Kr:

Yang Jiaying: Good morning, everyone. Welcome to today's new energy round - table discussion. I'm Yang Jiaying, the host of this round - table. During these two days of the industrial conference, we have had intense discussions around some emerging industries, such as the low - altitude economy and embodied intelligence. We've talked about how to increase production capacity and achieve large - scale and industrialized development. In contrast, the new energy industry, which has developed more rapidly, may have a relatively mature overall scale, and has passed the large - scale and industrialized development stage, is now facing a new challenge: overcapacity. Overcapacity has led to intensified price wars in the entire industry and a series of problems such as a decline in corporate profits. The guests here are all investors, and I believe you are the ones who can best feel the market temperature. So today, I'd like to have a chat with you about how to rationally view the current new energy market and how new energy investments can navigate the volatile cycle. There are four guests on the stage now. Let's start with a brief introduction of yourselves and your institutions.

Let me first give you a brief introduction to Zhaoshi Capital. Zhaoshi Capital is an industrial investment platform under GCL Group. GCL Group is a new energy and new materials technology enterprise that integrates various energy forms such as wind, solar, energy storage, hydrogen, and ammonia - alcohol. In the global rankings of new energy enterprises over the years, it has always ranked among the top four. As the only industrial investment platform under GCL Group, since its establishment in 2017, Zhaoshi Capital has been continuously and vertically focused on investments in the field of energy transformation. It covers the entire pan - new energy field, including new materials and advanced manufacturing, from the production, storage, and transportation of clean energy to its utilization. So far, we have managed a total of six funds. Coincidentally, this year we also registered a fund in the beautiful Xiamen, also known as the Egret Island. So today, we are very honored to have this opportunity to gather in Xiamen again to discuss the development of new energy.

Now, let's invite Mr. Liu to introduce himself.

Liu Xiaokang: Hello, everyone. I'm from Shanghai Orient Securities Capital Investment Co., Ltd., a private equity investment platform under Orient Securities. The major shareholder of Orient Securities is Shenergy Group, which has made arrangements in the new energy field, including hydrogen energy, innovative coal - power technologies, and power stations. Relying on this background, we have created the concept of an "energy investment bank", and new energy has always been our core area of focus.

Gu Xiaoli: Hello, everyone. I'm Gu Xiaoli from CMC Capital. CMC Capital was established in 2010 and has a history of 15 years. We have offices in Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, and Abu Dhabi. The cumulative management scale exceeds 30 billion RMB, most of which is in US dollars. We are a dual - currency fund, and our investors include sovereign wealth funds from multiple countries, such as China Investment Corporation, and the sovereign wealth funds of Singapore, Australia, and the United Arab Emirates. They are our long - term investors.

In the 15 years since its establishment, we have not made a large number of investments. We have invested in a total of 76 enterprises, mainly focusing on two directions: one is consumption and culture, which is the sector we have always adhered to; the other is hard technology and high - end manufacturing. Another characteristic is that our fund team is relatively market - oriented and international. Take me as an example. I first worked in the investment banking department of Morgan Stanley, providing financing and investment services for the clean energy sector. Then I joined the US private equity fund KKR, and later joined CMC Capital. Thank you.

Cao Shuyang: Dear guests, hello. I'm Cao Shuyang, the founding partner of Haichuan Capital. Haichuan is also a young startup. We obtained the license from the Asset Management Association of China at the end of last year. Within six months, we launched our first blind - pool fund with a scale of 300 million RMB. We are a purely market - oriented financial investment institution, but we have distinct characteristics. We only invest in two major fields: the intelligent vehicle industry and the energy and power industry. In the energy field, we don't only invest in new energy. We will also focus on the entire pan - energy and power field, including opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship in related industries such as the power grid, traditional oil and gas, and mining. Our investors include many listed companies, industrial players, well - known entrepreneurs, and actual controllers. Some LPs have labeled us as pan - CVC because we will have in - depth interactions and cooperation with many industrial players to jointly empower our invested enterprises.

Yang Jiaying: Thank you, guests, for your introductions. My first question is for everyone here. There are many sub - sectors in the new energy industry, such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and energy storage, all facing the problem of overcapacity. So I also want to know, in this context, have the investment logics and strategies of the institutions here in the new energy field changed?

Cao Shuyang: The issue of overcapacity in photovoltaics and lithium batteries has been discussed for several years. But recently, there has been a change. The lithium - battery sector may no longer have overcapacity, and production capacity has reached its limit. Although the price has not increased yet, if the situation continues, the price may rise soon. Regarding the implementation of the country's anti - involution policies, we have seen a lot of actions, including the leadership of leading enterprises, relevant policies, and various pressures. Although the situation in the photovoltaic sector may not change as quickly, it should be similar. Yes, we generally think that this wave is almost over.

China is already very advanced in these industries. The industrial foundation, scale, volume, and industrial maturity are all at a high level. As the effects of anti - involution gradually emerge, we feel that the lithium - battery sector will recover faster, and the photovoltaic sector slower, but they may return to a relatively healthy state. In all links of the entire industrial chain, since they are all related to power generation, there will be opportunities for new equipment and new materials that can reduce costs and increase efficiency. The acceptance of these new technologies by large downstream customers, their willingness to invest and introduce them, will also gradually return to normal. So new investment opportunities may gradually recover compared to the past two years.

Maybe we haven't made many investments in the past year or two, but it may start to get better. However, we will still focus on early - stage investment opportunities in various materials and equipment that can significantly reduce costs and increase efficiency, lower the cost per kilowatt - hour, and improve power - generation efficiency in sub - sectors to help the entire industry further enhance terminal value and power - generation efficiency.

Gu Xiaoli: We need to have a comprehensive understanding of the issue of overcapacity. Currently, overcapacity is mainly concentrated in the manufacturing sector. If we review the history of the energy industry, human demand for energy is endless. Every year, the global and Chinese energy consumption has been continuously increasing. Even though the domestic economy has been sluggish this year, as shown by the power - generation data for July in China released two weeks ago, the power demand in the first half of the year still increased by about 10%. The main driving force behind the continuous increase in power demand in the past few years is the demand for AI and computing power. As we all know, the ultimate competition behind AI is energy. In the future, the competition between major economies will mainly focus on computing power and energy. Therefore, I think this industry will still be quite prosperous in the medium term.

The so - called involution and overcapacity that people complain about are mainly concentrated in the manufacturing sector. An important reason for this situation is China's industrial policies and local governments' pursuit of GDP and production capacity. But these are all temporary. For example, in the photovoltaic industry, it's already the third cycle since I entered the industry. With technological iteration, innovation of old products, and the continuous increase in demand, the excess production capacity may spread quickly, but it will also be gradually digested in a few years. This process takes time to change. There have been some positive changes this year. An important turning point was the Supply - side Reform 2.0. In this process, the state has rectified industries such as photovoltaics and new energy as flagship industries, and the effects are already showing. For example, the prices of silicon materials and lithium carbonate have rebounded significantly in the past few months. But different from Supply - side Reform 1.0, Reform 2.0 involves many private enterprises and may take a longer cycle.

Looking forward from this point, there may be more positive and optimistic factors than in the past few years, but I don't think it will be an explosive change overnight.

For investment institutions, I think there will always be some challenges in this industry every year, such as overcapacity in the past few years and the trade war this year. But there are also some positive factors every year, such as this year's policy orientation, and the exit environment is more optimistic than before. Therefore, CMC's investment strategy is to carefully select projects and hope to maintain a certain success rate. When selecting targets, we always adhere to several points: first, technological advancement and barriers; second, the enterprise itself has the potential for resilient growth because this industry has cycles and challenges, and the enterprise needs to be able to handle them; third, we will focus on downstream applications. Due to involution, prices have dropped. From the perspective of downstream energy storage and photovoltaics, the reduced investment cost has led to higher returns and better cash flow. I think this industry is large enough and deep enough, and there are still many investment opportunities to be explored.

Liu Xiaokang: The new energy industry is a sunrise industry. The current overcapacity is a temporary and structural problem, and its long - term prospects are clear. From two aspects: first, it's a temporary problem. In the early stage of China's new energy industry, it was driven by policies. Some enterprises expanded production for policy arbitrage, leading to overcapacity. But after crossing the technological threshold, the industry will return to the essence of economic value. Second, it's a structural problem. The overcapacity in photovoltaics and lithium batteries is expected to ease with the expansion of downstream demand (for example, the export of lithium - battery cells has nearly doubled, and most of the global production capacity is in China). However, industries such as hydrogen energy and flow - battery energy storage are still in the stage of technological breakthrough and have not reached the inflection point of economic value. Our strategy is to "look at policies from above and value from below" - we need to grasp the top - level policy direction and pay more attention to the economic value brought by technological breakthroughs and the actual returns to downstream in the entire energy life cycle.

Yang Jiaying: Thank you, guests, for your sharing. Our opinions are quite consistent. As investment institutions and investors in the new energy industry, we are still optimistic about the industry in the long term. There are some external doubts and public opinions about overcapacity, and LPs and peers often ask us about it. As Zhaoshi Capital, we have seriously discussed this issue internally. Is overcapacity a long - term structural problem or just a short - term pain? In fact, we think it is more of a short - term pain, and we also think it is about to hit the bottom and rebound. Ultimately, the core indicator of the entire energy industry is the cost per kilowatt - hour. If the production capacity cannot be technologically iterated, the price cannot be reduced, or it cannot match some new application scenarios, it will inevitably be eliminated or cleared by the market. We think this is not a problem of short - term supply - demand mismatch but rather that such production capacity does not conform to the underlying core logic of cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement in the energy industry. So, overall, our institution has always adhered to the core concept of value innovation.

In addition, from the perspective of investment philosophy, we have always focused on two directions: first, to promote the clean transformation of the entire energy system. Second, we hope to accelerate the integration and utilization of multiple energy forms. From this general direction, looking back at the development of the new energy industry in recent years, our overall strategy may focus on three areas.

First, we always emphasize technological innovation. Enterprises must have the ability for technological iteration and breakthrough technologies. For example, in the photovoltaic sector, we may focus on the perovskite industrial chain, which is well - known recently. In the battery field, we may pay attention to the development of the solid - state battery industry. We also focus on the direction of AI virtual power plants on the consumption side.

Second, we will also focus on enterprises with the ability to go global, especially those with excellent overseas channels, the ability to obtain high brand premiums, and the ability to capture high - margin overseas markets.

Third, we think AI + energy is a major development direction in the future. We need to emphasize the integration of the digital economy and the energy system. For example, on the R & D side, GCL Photovoltaic, a company under our GCL Group, is engaged in perovskite. We have been helping them look into AI technologies to improve the R & D efficiency of their entire material system and continuously break through the photoelectric conversion efficiency. At the same time, on the consumption side, we are also looking into scenarios related to AI, virtual power plants, and power - consumption allocation. These are our current views on the market.

Next, I also want to discuss with you your views on the new energy industry. I have a question for Mr. Cao from Haichuan Capital first. I saw that you mentioned in a podcast that good companies grow in winter. Haichuan Capital launched a new blind - pool fund in 2025, a relatively bottom - cycle market, and successfully completed the first - closing of the main fund in August, targeting the intelligent vehicle and energy - power sectors to discover high - quality under - the - radar projects. I'd like to ask you how you define the screening criteria for under - the - radar projects in the trillion - level sectors. Also, you mentioned that nearly 70% of our fund's LPs are from the industrial and market sectors, which is quite different from the current situation in the market where many are complaining about difficult fundraising and most LPs are government - guided funds or state - owned enterprises. So I'd like to know how you view this LP structure. Is it related to your planned development path and the ecological niche you occupy?

Cao Shuyang: There are two questions. I'll answer them one by one. First, about under - the - radar projects. We really like to discover such projects. There are probably two types. One type is that the enterprise has reached a considerable level of maturity, perhaps with large - scale revenue and good profits. But before financing, it relied on the accumulation of the founding team or the founder and actual controller, whether it was funds, technology, or market capabilities. Maybe the founder is an experienced person who has succeeded several times. This is a new business he has started and has achieved a certain level on his own. Then, at an appropriate time, he decides to enter the capital market, perhaps ultimately aiming for an IPO, and starts financing for the first time. This is a promising under - the - radar project in the growth stage. You can see that the project itself may already have a net profit in the tens of millions, revenue in the tens of millions or even over a hundred million, and the founder may have a lot of personal accumulation. So why can we invest in his first round? Because we can provide more industrial resources and value, helping him enter more circles and large - customer systems. This may be an important characteristic of our institution. So, in the four projects we've invested in so far, we basically maintain this style. To a large extent,