Verdoppelung der Energiedichte, Selbstentzündung wird Geschichte? Die Stunde Null der industriellen Revolution, ausgelöst durch Festkörperbatterien
Electric vehicles suddenly catch fire while driving at high speed, and mobile phones heat up for no reason in pockets. These battery safety hazards that have troubled us for years finally offer a glimmer of hope for solutions with the breakthrough in solid-state battery technology.
As of May this year, the global number of patent applications for key technologies of solid-state batteries reached 20,798, among which 7,640 were from China, accounting for 36.7%. In the past five years, the annual growth rate of China's global patent applications for solid-state batteries was 20.8%, ranking first in the world.
This quiet technological revolution is reshaping the future landscape of the energy storage industry.
01 What is a solid-state battery? Why is it called the "Holy Grail" of energy storage?
The fundamental difference between solid-state batteries and traditional lithium batteries lies in the form of the electrolyte. Traditional batteries use liquid organic electrolytes, while solid-state batteries use solid electrolyte materials. Although this change sounds simple, it brings a qualitative leap in battery performance.
The core advantages of solid-state batteries are reflected in three dimensions: revolutionary improvement in safety, significant increase in energy density, and remarkable extension of cycle life.
In terms of safety, the liquid electrolyte in traditional lithium batteries is flammable and explosive, and is prone to causing fires when damaged or overheated. In contrast, solid electrolytes are non-combustible, fundamentally eliminating the risk of battery self-ignition. Test data from Toyota in Japan shows that its solid-state battery samples did not catch fire at all during the nail penetration test.
In terms of energy density, the energy density of solid-state batteries is expected to exceed 500 Wh/kg. The energy density of some new solid-state batteries has exceeded 600 Wh/kg, demonstrating its great potential in battery technology, far exceeding the 300 Wh/kg of current advanced lithium batteries.
This means that batteries of the same weight can provide longer endurance, solving the "range anxiety" problem of electric vehicles. Many automakers such as Guoxuan High-Tech and Changan Automobile have announced that they will launch new energy vehicles equipped with solid-state batteries by the end of 2025, with a maximum range of up to 1,500 km.
In terms of cycle life, solid-state batteries overcome the problem of lithium dendrites formed during the cycling process of liquid lithium batteries and can withstand more charge-discharge cycles. According to data released by QuantumScape, its solid-state battery still retains more than 80% of its capacity after 800 cycles, far exceeding that of traditional batteries.
Compared with traditional lithium batteries, the most prominent advantage of all-solid-state batteries is safety. Solid-state batteries have the characteristics of suppressing lithium dendrites, having no interfacial side reactions, no electrolyte leakage, good high-temperature performance, and no gas swelling.
02 The trillion-dollar market opens: How will solid-state batteries reshape the landscapes of multiple industries?
The maturity of solid-state battery technology will reshape the landscapes of three major industries: new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, and energy storage.
In the field of electric vehicles, solid-state batteries will become a key turning point in the industry's development. According to the forecast of BloombergNEF, the global sales volume of electric vehicles with solid-state batteries will reach 13 million in 2030, accounting for 15% of the entire electric vehicle market. Herbert Diess, the former CEO of Volkswagen Group, once said: "Solid-state batteries will be a game-changer for electric vehicles."
The consumer electronics industry will also undergo changes. Smartphones, laptops, and wearable devices have an increasing demand for battery safety and endurance. Foreign media revealed that Apple has been researching new battery technologies for "several years." Apple is considering using alternative anode and cathode materials to improve the overall performance of battery modules, aiming to extend the effective battery life of its future products and will finally commercialize them in 2025.
The renewable energy storage market is another important application scenario for solid-state batteries. With the acceleration of the global energy transition, the demand for grid-level energy storage is growing rapidly. The high safety and long lifespan of solid-state batteries make them very suitable for household and grid energy storage applications.
Solid-state batteries will be first promoted and applied in the consumer electronics field. The main reason is that the high energy density advantage of solid-state batteries can bring longer standby time. Meanwhile, compared with power batteries and energy storage batteries, the cost of replacing batteries in consumer electronics is lower, so the sensitivity to cycle life is also lower.
It is estimated that by 2030, the penetration rate of solid-state batteries in the consumer battery field will reach 12%. In addition, in the field of new energy vehicles, the penetration rate of solid-state batteries is expected to reach 10% by 2030. In the future, the penetration rate of solid-state batteries in the energy storage field will also show an upward trend, but at a relatively slow pace, reaching 1.5% by 2030.
03 Policy-driven: How do global governments compete for the dominance of solid-state batteries?
The strategic value of solid-state battery technology has attracted high attention from major global economies. Countries have introduced support policies to compete for the technological high ground.
China has clearly listed solid-state batteries as a key development area through the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021 - 2035)", established special research funds, and encouraged joint research between enterprises and universities. Leading enterprises such as CATL and BYD have received billions of yuan in national special funds. Local governments, such as Jiangsu Province, have also launched construction plans for solid-state battery industrial parks, offering preferential policies in terms of land, taxation, etc.
Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has formulated the "Battery Strategy", investing 50 billion yen to support the research and development of solid-state batteries, and established a research and development alliance including automakers such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan, as well as battery enterprises such as Panasonic. The Japanese government plans to achieve large-scale commercial application of solid-state batteries by 2030.
The EU has allocated 2.9 billion euros through the "European Battery Innovation Plan" to support research on battery technologies including solid-state batteries, requiring that by 2030, EU enterprises should account for 25% of the global battery market share. The German government has directly invested 2 billion euros to support the development of domestic solid-state battery enterprises.
The United States has allocated 6 billion US dollars through the "Bipartisan Infrastructure Law" for the construction of the battery supply chain, among which solid-state batteries are listed as a key support area. Start - up enterprises such as QuantumScape and Solid Power have received a large amount of funding support from the Department of Energy.
These policy supports not only accelerate technological progress but also help enterprises reduce R & D costs and shorten the commercialization process, laying a foundation for countries to occupy a favorable position in the future energy landscape.
04 Investment opportunities: How to layout the future track of solid-state batteries?
Investment opportunities in the field of solid-state batteries are mainly concentrated in three aspects: material innovation, equipment manufacturing, and terminal applications.
The material field is the core breakthrough point. Enterprises involved in solid electrolyte materials (oxides, sulfides, polymers, etc.) and high-capacity cathode and anode materials have extremely high investment value.
There are also huge opportunities in the equipment manufacturing field. The production process of solid-state batteries is significantly different from that of traditional lithium-ion batteries and requires specialized production equipment. The solid-state battery evaporation equipment developed by Canon Tokki in Japan has received orders from many leading enterprises.
At the terminal application level, vehicle manufacturers and energy storage system integrators that start early in the layout of solid-state batteries will gain a first-mover advantage. BMW Group has established a partnership with Solid Power and plans to launch a solid-state battery prototype vehicle before 2025. Investors can pay attention to application-side companies that have established in-depth cooperative relationships with leading solid-state battery enterprises.
05 Conclusion: Awaiting the Blossoming
Solid-state battery technology is on the verge of industrialization. Although full commercialization may still take 3 - 5 years, its disruptive impact on multiple industries has already begun to emerge. With the acceleration of material innovation and the maturity of manufacturing processes, solid-state batteries are expected to achieve large-scale application between 2025 and 2030.
Investors and enterprises need to be both strategically patient and forward-looking, and make early layouts for this technological revolution that is destined to change the world. As pointed out in a research report by Morgan Stanley: "Solid-state batteries may change the industry's game rules and bring huge returns to early adopters."
Note: The enterprises mentioned in this article are only cases for industrial chain analysis and do not constitute any investment recommendations. The market is risky, and investment requires caution. Please make decisions based on your own risk tolerance and independent judgment.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Gelonghui APP" (ID: hkguruclub), author: Editor of Gelonghui. It is published by 36Kr with authorization.