Hören Sie nicht nur auf KI! Der nächste "Hard Tech" -Trend: Industriemaschinen
While the market is still marveling at the soaring stock prices of AI hardware, a more fundamental and strategically significant sector is quietly taking off - machine tools. As the "heart" of the equipment manufacturing industry, it is not only the manufacturing foundation for all industrial products but also the core manifestation of a country's manufacturing competitiveness.
Looking at the current market situation, China has long remained the world's largest producer and consumer of machine tools. In 2024, the market size of China's machine tools increased from 631.362 billion yuan in 2019 to 712.886 billion yuan, and it is expected to exceed 800 billion yuan in 2029, indicating huge development potential. Currently, this once-neglected traditional industry is rejuvenating under the dual impetus of policies and the market.
Dual Catalysts of Policies and Market Bring Historic Opportunities to the Industry
On September 1st, the Standardization Administration of China and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Construction Plan for a High - quality Standard System for Machine Tools". This significant policy is regarded as a crucial turning point for the industry to move from "domestic substitution" to "high - end development".
The plan not only sets quantitative goals of revising or formulating no less than 300 standards by 2026 and achieving a 90% conversion rate of international standards but, more importantly, constructs a full - industrial - chain standard framework covering six major levels and 34 categories, including basic general, design and supporting, manufacturing equipment, manufacturing processes, inspection and testing, and industry applications.
The innovation of this policy lies in its systematic thinking.
Firstly, it requires that standard development be simultaneously arranged when projects such as national major special projects and industrial foundation reconstruction projects are initiated, and standards be simultaneously released upon project acceptance. This "standard - first" model will greatly accelerate the industrialization of innovation achievements. Secondly, by vertically integrating materials, components, complete machines, and integration and horizontally linking application fields such as the automotive and aerospace industries, the policy directly addresses the pain points of the industry. More notably, the policy for the first time includes carbon emission accounting, energy efficiency grades, and industrial control safety in mandatory requirements, laying the foundation for the high - quality development of the industry.
The market data is also encouraging. According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first half of 2025, the operating income and total profit of large - scale machinery industries in China increased by 7.8% and 9.4% year - on - year respectively, significantly higher than the national industrial average. Among them, the output of metal - cutting machine tools increased by 13.5% year - on - year, indicating a strong recovery trend in the industry as a whole. This recovery is not only reflected in macro data but also in the micro - level of enterprises.
In the first half of the year, the overall profitability of the industry improved significantly. The net profit growth rates of many enterprises exceeded 30%. Among them, the net profit of Huadong CNC soared by 140.53% year - on - year, and those of Qiaofeng Intelligence, Chuangshi Ji, and Guosheng Zhike increased by 56.43%, 47.38%, and 32% respectively. This widespread improvement in performance fully verifies the high prosperity of the industry.
Resonance of Three Investment Logics Unlocks a Market Space of Billions
At this historic moment, the machine tool sector shows a strong resonance of three investment logics, which reinforce each other and jointly drive the industry into a new cycle of prosperity.
The first is the most certain investment logic of domestic substitution. Currently, the domestic substitution rate of high - end CNC machine tools in China is still less than 20%. Especially in high - end fields such as five - axis linkage, compound machining, and ultra - precision machining, the import dependence is still relatively high. Institutions predict that the domestic substitution rate of high - end CNC machine tools will jump to 60% by 2030, which means there is a huge substitution space in the next five years.
Technological breakthroughs also provide a solid foundation for domestic substitution. The combination of technological breakthroughs and the price advantage of domestic equipment (usually 30 - 50% lower than imported equipment) has accelerated the process of domestic substitution. In recent years, domestic enterprises have made significant progress in core technologies:
1. The machining accuracy of Kede CNC's five - axis machine tools reaches the nanometer level, breaking the technological monopoly of Europe and the United States;
2. The Huazhong 9 - type AI CNC system independently developed by Huazhong CNC achieves full - space accuracy compensation, and its key technical indicators reach the international advanced level;
3. The accuracy of Qinchuan Machine Tool's gear grinding machine reaches 0.001 mm, ranking among the world's advanced levels.
The industry is experiencing a leap from "usable" to "good - to - use", which is mainly reflected in the following aspects: in terms of accuracy indicators, leading domestic enterprises have reached the international advanced level; in terms of intelligence, machine tools are deeply integrating with new technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and the Internet of Things; in terms of green manufacturing, the energy efficiency level of the industry has been significantly improved. These technological advancements not only meet the requirements of the dual - carbon goal but also reduce the usage cost for users.
In addition, the synergistic effect of the industrial chain is becoming increasingly prominent. Complete - machine enterprises and component enterprises have established strategic cooperation relationships to jointly tackle core technologies. For example, Kede CNC and Haozhi Electromechanical have carried out in - depth cooperation in the field of electric spindles, and Hanjiang Machine Tool and Huazhong CNC have carried out collaborative innovation in the field of CNC systems. This industrial - chain synergy has greatly accelerated the industrialization process.
The second investment logic is the full - scale explosion of emerging demand. The rapid development of emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles, humanoid robots, and the low - altitude economy has brought new growth drivers to the machine tool industry.
In the field of new - energy vehicles, the promotion of integrated die - casting technology has driven the demand for large - scale five - axis gantry machining centers. The processing of components such as batteries, motor housings, battery boxes, and reducer housings of new - energy vehicles will be a new growth point for five - axis machine tools.
The explosive growth of the humanoid robot industry has put forward higher requirements for precision machining equipment. The processing of core components such as precision reducers, lead screws, and guide rails requires ultra - high - precision grinding equipment with an accuracy requirement of up to the micron level. It is estimated that the market size of humanoid robots in China will reach 7.5 billion yuan in 2029, driving the demand for related processing equipment to exceed 1 billion yuan.
The development of the low - altitude economy is also worthy of attention. Electric vertical take - off and landing vehicles (eVTOL) widely use carbon fiber composite materials and metal composite structures, which put forward new requirements for additive - subtractive composite processing equipment. In 2024, the core industrial scale of China's low - altitude economy is expected to reach 580 billion yuan, and the market for related processing equipment is rapidly emerging.
As early as a year ago, the Gelonghui Research Institute had a profound insight into the above industrial logic and conducted a special discussion in the exclusive circle for members. Behind these judgments is our in - depth understanding of industrial laws and accurate grasp of market trends.
Where are the Opportunities? Keep an Eye on Three Key Points!
In the future, we will focus on three major trends in the industry: first is the deep integration of intelligent manufacturing and machine tools, especially the application of new technologies such as digital twin and artificial intelligence; second is the demand for equipment upgrading brought about by new - material processing, including processing equipment for difficult - to - machine materials such as composite materials and high - temperature alloys; third is the opportunity for domestic equipment to go global in the process of globalization, especially the expansion opportunities in the "Belt and Road" market.
Regarding the investment layout in the machine tool field, we suggest focusing on three directions: first are high - end CNC machine tool manufacturers such as those for five - axis linkage, which have high technical barriers and large domestic substitution space; second are enterprises producing core components such as CNC systems and spindles, which are breaking through bottlenecks and continuously enhancing their profitability; third are specialized equipment manufacturers focusing on the new - energy and aerospace fields, which benefit from the explosion of emerging demand and have prominent growth potential.
Next, keep an eye on three key points:
1. The implementation rhythm of policies: Whether special loans and tax incentives will be intensively introduced in Q4;
2. Capacity release: The performance flexibility of new production lines of Kede, Haitian, etc. after they are put into operation in 2025;
3. Export expansion: With the low exchange rate of the RMB, the cost - performance advantage promotes export growth.
Specifically, pay special attention to leading enterprises with core technologies, full order books, and strong performance certainty. These enterprises usually have the following characteristics: R & D investment accounts for more than 5%, they own core patented technologies, have high - quality downstream customers, healthy cash flows, and professional and dedicated management teams.
Overall, the machine tool sector is not a sector full of "bubble stories". Its logic is based on real orders, policies, and technological breakthroughs. The Gelonghui Research Institute always believes that only growth that can be translated into performance is real growth. In this seemingly traditional but highly potential - laden track, we will continue to adhere to the method of "industrial - chain research + order verification + financial modeling" to help investors see through the fog and seize the dividends of the high - end manufacturing era.
Note: The enterprises mentioned in this article are only examples for industrial - chain analysis and do not constitute any investment recommendation. The market is risky, and investment should be made with caution. Please make decisions based on your own risk - bearing capacity and independent judgment.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Gelonghui APP" (ID: hkguruclub), written by the editor of Gelonghui and published by 36Kr with authorization.