Werden die großen Hersteller, die in niedrigpreisige Märkte absteigen, Wuling Hongguang das Leben kosten?

On August 11th, SAIC-GM-Wuling announced that the cumulative sales of Hongguang MINIEV had exceeded 1.7 million units. It had won the sales championship in the micro new energy vehicle market for 60 consecutive months and became the champion in terms of cumulative sales among Chinese brand pure electric vehicle models. To celebrate this, Wuling held a grand event for its 1.7 million users at Zhengzhou Fantawild, which was extremely lively.

Seizing the opportunity, on the 15th, the 2025 Wuling Xingguang S was launched. In terms of price, the official guide price of the new Wuling Xingguang S ranges from 99,800 yuan to 129,800 yuan, and with the limited-time replacement subsidy, the price drops to 89,800 yuan to 119,800 yuan. This new car clearly bears Wuling's ambition to break through to the high - end market and is a crucial move for Wuling to enter the mainstream market. However, not to mention that the 100,000 - yuan - level new energy vehicle market is full of strong competitors and Wuling faces numerous difficulties ahead. A more dangerous signal is that Wuling's "fortress" in the pure - electric small car segment is being eroded.

Last month, at BYD's Xi'an production base, as a brand - new Seagull rolled off the assembly line, the cumulative sales of this model officially exceeded 1 million units. It only took BYD Seagull 27 months to reach the milestone of cumulative sales of one million units since its launch. Similarly, Geely Xingyuan, which has successfully entered the 60,000 - yuan entry - level pure - electric small car market, has sold more than 240,000 new cars in the first seven months of this year.

Initially, Hongguang MINIEV defeated low - speed electric vehicles with its extreme cost - effectiveness and standardized products, offering a new option for short - distance commuting vehicles and becoming the sales champion. Now, in the A00 - class and A0 - class electric vehicle market, BYD and Geely have lowered the price to the 60,000 - yuan level. Their high - quality products have once again upgraded the new choice for young people's first electric car.

Many consumers are now inclined to choose BYD Seagull over the "Hongguang MINIEV".

The market is recovering, but Wuling is no longer the sole beneficiary

During the rapid growth of new energy passenger vehicles, micro - cars have always been the main contributor to sales. However, in the past two years, the micro - car market has experienced significant fluctuations.

According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, in 2021, the sales volume of A00 - class pure - electric vehicle models was 990,000 units, accounting for 36.1% of the total sales of pure - electric vehicles, making it the largest single sub - category. However, in 2022, the market share of this sub - segment began to shrink to 27%. In 2023, the cumulative retail sales of small and micro - cars further decreased to 692,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 27.9%, a reduction of 267,000 units compared with 2022.

However, the situation has reversed this year. Driven by the affordable prices and the "two new" policies, the small - car market has regained its vitality. The sales volume of A0 - class and lower - level models in the first half of the year increased by more than 70% year - on - year, with an increase of 670,000 units, accounting for 43% of the overall market growth. Taking May as an example, according to the data from the Passenger Car Association, in May, the wholesale sales of pure - electric vehicles reached 754,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 37.7% and a month - on - month increase of 4.4%. Among them, the wholesale sales of A00 - class vehicles were 164,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 100% and a month - on - month increase of 6%, accounting for 22% of the pure - electric vehicle market, an increase of 7 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

Previously, relying on the "legendary car" Wuling Hongguang MINIEV to dominate the micro - car segment, Wuling's sales volume changes were almost in line with the trend of the entire pure - electric small - car market and even influenced the market scale to some extent. However, now that the market is recovering, Wuling may no longer be the biggest beneficiary of this growth dividend.

Looking at the top three in the new energy sedan list in the first half of the year, Geely Xingyuan, BYD Seagull, and Wuling Hongguang MINIEV all had good sales performance. However, in terms of ranking, Wuling Hongguang MINIEV dropped to the third place. The sales volumes of Geely Xingyuan, BYD Seagull, and Wuling Hongguang MINIEV in the first half of the year were 205,000 units, 175,000 units, and 171,000 units respectively. Moreover, in this list, the ranking of Wuling Bingo has dropped to the 11th place.

The emergence of BYD Seagull was an expected "attack" on Wuling. Especially when BYD dragged the high - quality small cars into the 60,000 - yuan market without significantly reducing the configuration, it was predictable that this small car would be popular. However, what surprised the outside world was Geely Xingyuan, the dark horse. On the new battlefield opened up by BYD Seagull, as a latecomer, Geely Xingyuan not only delivered more than 50,000 cars 80 days after its launch but also maintained a strong growth momentum.

In July this year, Geely Xingyuan sold 44,000 units, almost equal to the total sales of Seagull, Dolphin, and Bingo.

The sales growth of BYD Seagull and Geely Xingyuan means that the market scale of entry - level pure - electric small cars has not reached its peak. They have not only become the "stumbling blocks" for Wuling's upward breakthrough, suppressing the growth momentum of Wuling Bingo, but more importantly, they have also severely impacted the market below 50,000 yuan, which was strongly occupied by Wuling Hongguang MINIEV.

Because consumers' choices for commuting vehicles are no longer limited to the compact Wuling Hongguang MINIEV. They may increase their budget within an acceptable price range to buy a product with stronger comprehensive product strength. This will shake Wuling's development foundation in the low - cost commuting vehicle segment.

Can Wuling no longer hold the sinking market?

Since the launch of Hongguang MINIEV, the commuting vehicle market below 50,000 yuan has regained its vitality. The sinking market represented by medium - and low - tier cities, counties, and townships is the core area where the sales myth of Hongguang MINIEV was born. As can be seen from the chart, in the three years since the launch of Hongguang MINIEV, the sales volume in third - tier and lower - tier cities has always accounted for more than 60%, with the highest proportion in third - tier cities, nearly 40%.

This is partly due to the support of two populous provinces, Shandong and Henan. Originally, on the streets of towns and counties in Shandong and Henan, low - speed electric vehicles were the most common. However, the MINIEV launched by Wuling, priced at only 28,800 yuan, improved in many aspects such as convenience, space, and design, completely outperforming low - speed electric vehicles and meeting the demand for consumption upgrading of some people. Coupled with the strict crackdown on low - speed electric vehicles, this car quickly filled the market gap left by low - speed electric vehicles, and Wuling thus "dominated" the sinking market.

Now, product innovation is once again driving consumption upgrading in the sinking market, but the leader is no longer Wuling.

Take BYD Seagull as an example. As a pure - electric small car with a price as low as 60,000 yuan, BYD Seagull has almost no shortcomings in terms of range, fast - charging, and body, fully justifying its price. Similarly, Geely Xingyuan also has a price as low as 60,000 yuan, equipped with panoramic image, Flyme Auto intelligent system, and Shield battery, etc., comprehensively competing with Seagull in terms of price and positioning.

The sales growth of BYD Seagull and Geely Xingyuan is largely due to the fact that they have successfully opened up a gap in the market between the "Hongguang MINIEV" and 100,000 - yuan passenger cars with their equally cost - effective products. More importantly, as pure - electric small cars, BYD Seagull and Geely Xingyuan have made a qualitative leap in comprehensive product strength, changing the previous image of low - cost and low - quality commuting vehicles, blurring the boundary between commuting vehicles and mainstream passenger cars, and meeting the needs of more consumers.

What Wuling may lose first is its core user group - moms in counties. In the past few years, during the transition from low - speed electric vehicles to Hongguang MINIEV, women or moms in counties were undoubtedly a major consumer force. Hongguang MINIEV not only met their daily commuting and school - pick - up needs but also captured their hearts that pursue fashion and refinement with its fashionable and changeable appearance.

According to the data from a county - level dealer in Shandong, in 2024, female car buyers accounted for 52%, and moms accounted for more than 70% of them.

The large group of moms has created a new consumer hot - spot. With the further differentiation of county - level consumption, the demand of some moms for commuting vehicles within 100,000 yuan has been upgraded again, and their choices have also changed.

In a county in Shandong, Zhang Yang, a post - 90s mom, bought a BYD Seagull last year. Previously, she always thought that Hongguang MINI was a bit petty, mainly used for commuting, and the space was not enough, so she hesitated to buy a car. Later, after seeing the BYD Seagull, especially when the new - style Seagull Glory Edition was launched, she couldn't wait to buy one. "It looks more imposing, and it is better in terms of range," Zhang Yang said.

Zhang Yang's choice is a microcosm of the current car - buying consumption trend of many women in small counties, which means that Wuling may not be able to meet the demand brought by consumption upgrading with just Wuling Bingo. Especially when Wuling swept the low - speed electric vehicles in the past, part of its success was due to its brand. However, compared with BYD and Geely, Wuling no longer has a brand advantage.

The pure - electric small car market is ultimately a battle of cost

In the past two years, there was a trend among car - makers to abandon or adjust their micro - car strategies. Some models were discontinued, and some manufacturers no longer promoted A00 - class models vigorously. For example, Ora Black Cat and White Cat were discontinued. Behind the soaring sales volume of the micro - car market was the hard - to - ignore low profit.

Dong Yudong, the CEO of Ora brand, said, "In the early stage of industrial development, A00 - class pure - electric vehicles were very good products, which promoted the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. However, with the rising raw material prices, increasing costs, and the reduction of subsidies, the trend of losses has become more and more obvious." For Wuling, whose prices are generally lower, although its "dominance" in the micro - car market has created a sales myth, the meager profit makes the car - maker unhappy.

The financial report of SAIC Group in the first half of 2023 showed that although SAIC - GM - Wuling sold 520,000 cars, its net profit attributable to the parent company plummeted by 88.5%. Roughly calculated, it only made 77.3 yuan per car sold.

Moreover, looking at the financial data from 2018 to 2024, in 2018, when SAIC Group's sales volume reached a record high of 7.052 million units, SAIC - GM - Wuling contributed a net profit of 4.2 billion yuan. By 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company of SAIC - GM - Wuling had dropped to 1 billion yuan.

Traditional car - makers, under the pressure of profit, occupied the market with low - priced models during the popularization stage of new energy vehicles. Part of the reason was that they regarded these models as the vanguard for exploring new energy transformation and upgrading. Even if they suffered losses, they still sold these cars. However, now, with the improvement of car - makers' production efficiency and the perfection of the industrial chain, the production cost has decreased, and there is more room for price adjustment of products. For low - priced cars, it is possible to achieve a certain profit under strict cost control.

In terms of cost control ability in the new energy vehicle market, BYD leads the industry. Its increased investment in low - cost commuting vehicles may cause a dimensionality - reduction attack on other car - makers that sacrifice profit for sales volume.

For example, in a price war, the latter may be in a passive position. Some time ago, the official guide price of the intelligent - driving version of BYD Seagull started from 69,800 yuan, and the limited - time fixed price started from 55,800 yuan, directly bringing the price of Seagull to the 50,000 - yuan level. Geely also quickly followed up. The limited - time subsidy price of Geely Xingyuan started from 59,800 yuan, a discount of 9,000 yuan compared with the guide price of 68,800 yuan.

When BYD and Geely