Die drei profitabelsten Verbrauchsfirmen in diesem Jahr: Zwei davon haben die großen Fonds falsch eingeschätzt | Deep Dive
Text by Qiao Qian
Edited by Yang Xuan
The Overlooked High - Achiever
It's hard to imagine that Lao Pu Gold, whose stock price has skyrocketed 12 - fold since its listing over a year ago, was an unattractive case in the primary market.
In August 2023, Xu Gaoming, the founder of Lao Pu Gold, decided to abandon the A - share market he had been waiting for years and turn to the Hong Kong stock market, targeting November of that year to submit the listing application. At that time, this 14 - year - old company had never raised any round of financing.
A Pre - IPO round suddenly emerged, but the window for primary - market investors was quite short. "The founder was very open - minded. He said if you can catch up, that's great; if not, there'll still be opportunities during the IPO," an investor close to Xu Gaoming told 36Kr.
Heiyi was a rare and determined participant. At the partner - level investment decision - making meeting, Lao Pu Gold was approved unanimously. Subsequently, processes such as due diligence, agreement negotiation, and valuation consultation were "completed in a very compressed time frame," and the investment was finalized in just two months. With a valuation of 5.225 billion RMB, Heiyi led an investment of 175 million yuan. This was also the only lead - investment Term Sheet (TS) Lao Pu received.
The other participant was Yuyuan Co., Ltd., the parent company behind "Yuyuan Garden," where Lao Pu's only store in Shanghai was located. No one knew better than them the real turnover and operating conditions of that landmark store.
But apart from them, "others came and then left," a person close to this round of financing told 36Kr.
Even six months later, during the IPO cornerstone round, Lao Pu Gold was far from being "sought - after."
Only a few institutions showed interest during the roadshow. Tencent "negotiated the price with the founding team" before finally subscribing for $35 million. CPE Yuanfeng and the public - offering Southern Fund each subscribed for $10.5 million. "The reason is that the performance can support it, and the price is not high," a person close to CPE told 36Kr.
A crucial turning point was Lao Pu Gold's interim report released at the end of August: In the first half of 2024, its profit soared by nearly 200% year - on - year. This made its already low pricing even more attractive.
"Because it was cheap, many investors actually had the mentality of 'finding a bargain,'" an investment banker close to Lao Pu Gold's IPO told 36Kr.
The final figures confirmed the madness of the bargain - hunters: After Lao Pu Gold opened its IPO order book, the "public offering" for retail investors was over - subscribed by more than 580 times, and the "international placement" for institutional investors was over - subscribed by nearly 12 times. On the day of its listing in June 2024, its closing market value reached HK$11.3 billion, which means that in just half a year since the Pre - IPO round, Lao Pu's valuation had doubled.
The subsequent story is well - known. With the rising gold price, headlines like "Consumers queuing up at SKP," and the long - lasting discussion about "why Lao Pu's performance can outshine both Chow Tai Fook and Cartier & Bulgari," Lao Pu's stock price soared, becoming a big star among Hong Kong's consumer stocks in 2025.
Finally, a "consensus" about this company was formed in the secondary market. Meanwhile, a strong sense of regret spread in the primary market.
According to 36Kr, the founding partner of a top - tier VC severely criticized the consumer investment team internally, mainly because "they missed out on Lao Pu."
A partner of a VC fund investing in the consumer sector also sighed at a private event, "We didn't even notice this case."
A fund that had considered but didn't invest reflected, "At that time, we debated whether it was a gold business or a luxury business. If it was a gold business, it was no different from Chow Tai Fook; if it was a luxury business, it lacked a sense of history."
The regret of an investor from a first - tier US - dollar fund was even more thought - provoking: "We internally reflected on why we didn't invest in Mixue, but we didn't reflect on why we didn't invest in Lao Pu because even if given another chance, we still wouldn't understand it."
What they regretted was not just missing one opportunity but missing two. Even if they had made a bold investment during the IPO, the paper return of this investment would have easily exceeded 10 times by now.
What's even more regrettable is that this is not an isolated case.
Apart from Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold, toy company Brukko and trading - card company Card Hobby, these consumer star stocks that have either been listed or are about to be listed and were extremely popular in the first half of the year have one major thing in common: they were rarely understood in the primary market.
Why is this the case?
Secondary - Market Sentiment and the Birth of Stars
The soaring stock prices of several consumer companies in the first half of the year caught many people off guard. However, there were still some in the market who sensed the change in the market sentiment first.
Yan Qi's investment fund has been closely tracking the tea - beverage industry. Besides investing in the growth stage, the cornerstone round is also a crucial opportunity to get on board. From last year to this year, mature tea - beverage companies flocked to the Hong Kong stock market for listing. Every decision, whether to invest, whom to invest in, and how much to invest, was of great significance.
For Guming, their decision was "not to participate." Although the company's performance firmly ranked second in the industry, "its initial offer price in the cornerstone round exceeded HK$30 billion (corresponding to a P/E ratio of 20), and the probability of the stock price breaking below the issue price was too high, which scared us off," Yan Qi told 36Kr. Cha Baidao, which went public a year ago, experienced a long - term price break - below due to its high pricing, dampening the confidence of many investors. Like Yan Qi, Sequoia, an early investor in Guming, also decided "not to participate."
For Mixue Bingcheng, their decision was "to participate minimally." At that time, Mixue Bingcheng was the only absolute leader in the industry whose "same - store sales" not only didn't decline but also maintained single - digit growth. The price offered in the cornerstone round (a P/E ratio of 15) was also quite reasonable. However, its overseas business, which had nearly 5,000 stores and was regarded as the next growth curve, was not yet profitable. "We were worried that the secondary market wouldn't tolerate it, so we only made a small - scale investment," Yan Qi said.
Subsequent events proved that these two decisions were too conservative.
The tea - beverage industry, with many large and medium - sized companies, is like a vivid microcosm. Since 2025, the "sentiment" in the Hong Kong stock market has been completely different from that when Cha Baidao went public in the first half of 2024.
"At the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, there were 1,000 companies queuing up at the CSRC for A - share listing. Now, the number has been reduced to about 180," Jason, a Chinese - funded securities broker who has participated in many IPO projects, told 36Kr. "If these 800 companies still want to go public, they either go to the Beijing Stock Exchange or Hong Kong. Considering the fundraising amount, price, and tolerance, Hong Kong is a better choice."
Among them, consumer companies, once rumored to be in the "red - and - yellow - light industries," are the main force shifting from the A - share market to the Hong Kong market.
On the asset side, companies eager to go public are flocking to Hong Kong. On the capital side, smart money has smelled the opportunity.
"Firstly, there is an expectation of a US - dollar interest - rate cut, and US dollars will flow into emerging economies like China; secondly, this year, the confidence in Mag 7 (tech - stock giants) has declined overall (except for NVIDIA); thirdly, the narrative around DeepSeek and AI has made people think that China may not necessarily win but won't lose either in the competition," an investment banker who analyzes market information for issuers told 36Kr.
Foreign capital is coming back. "This year, the most active funds are from Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. US funds haven't fully returned yet," the above - mentioned person said.
The RMB is even more stable. On April 2nd, when Trump announced additional tariffs, more than HK$30 billion flowed into Hong Kong through the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect, setting a new record since the launch of this mechanism. "Foreign investors will feel that no matter how bad the market is, there will always be capital from the Chinese mainland to support it, which will boost their confidence."
In a recent conversation with 36Kr, Li Xiaojia, the former chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, described this Hong Kong - stock bull market as follows: "Capital from the Chinese mainland doesn't want to flow out globally, and overseas investors' sentiment towards Chinese assets has changed from 'fear' in the past two years to 'greed,' thus jointly creating this wave in Hong Kong."
Yan Qi soon realized what he had "missed." After a brief price break - below on the day of its listing on February 12th, Guming's stock price has been rising steadily, reaching three times the issue price at its peak in June. Twenty days later, Mixue Bingcheng, which raised HK$3.5 billion in its IPO, truly detonated the market.
An investment banker close to Mixue Bingcheng's IPO told 36Kr that institutional investors in the "international placement" part "used all means to convey messages to the reclusive founder" in order to grab shares. Some institutions, knowing that they could only get a quota of HK$10 million, still placed orders worth HK$100 million "to show their sincerity." According to 36Kr, even an old investor in Mixue had little initiative in competing for shares and had to sign a lock - up agreement longer than the written one.
The internet brokerage Futu immediately took advantage of the situation. Considering that "consumer deals are the easiest to understand," it increased the leverage for some retail investors to an astonishing more than 200 times. Eventually, due to the over - subscription of more than 5,000 times by retail investors, Mixue's IPO triggered the Hong Kong stock market's claw - back mechanism. The proportion of the "public offering" was increased from the original 10% to 50%, meaning that retail investors successfully squeezed out institutional investors' shares.
A real carnival is when most people participate. By then, the market sentiment had reached its peak.
Xu Zhengyu, the Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury of Hong Kong, wrote in an article last week that in the first seven months of this year, there were 53 new - share IPOs in the Hong Kong stock market, exceeding the annual fundraising amount of each of the past three years. Ernst & Young said in its "China Mainland and Hong Kong IPO Report" that "retail consumption" was the most active sector in the Hong Kong - stock IPOs in the first half of the year, with an average over - subscription ratio of 2,228 times, ranking first among all industries.
Another more intuitive figure is that among the top ten IPOs in Hong Kong in the first half of 2025, four were consumer companies, namely Haitian Flavoring & Food, Mixue Bingcheng, Guming, and Brukko. On June 23rd, the three companies ringing the listing bell on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange were all consumer companies.
Investment banks rushed to grab projects. "For a single project, it seems that China International Capital Corporation goes one day, Citic Securities the next day, and China Jianyin Investment Securities and Huatai Securities the day after," an investment banker from a leading domestic - funded investment bank in charge of sourcing projects told 36Kr. His airline membership card was downgraded to silver last year but was upgraded back to gold by May this year.
For founders, seizing the "window period" to sell their companies at a good price has become a top priority. "I've been telling the companies I've invested in recently that the market is good this year, and those that can go public should do so as soon as possible," a partner of a VC fund investing in the consumer sector told 36Kr.
Compared with AI companies, SaaS companies, and new - energy companies that went public in the past few years with unclear commercialization or long - term losses, consumer companies with good growth and profits are now in the spotlight. "Most investors would rather pay a premium for a good company than give a fair price to a bad one."
According to Wind data, in the first half of this year, the industry with the largest net inflow of south - bound funds (capital flowing into the Hong Kong market through the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect) was the "non - essential consumption" sector.
In the first half of 2025, the Hong Kong stock market was hot, the consumer sector was even hotter, and "emotional consumption" of non - essential items was the hottest.
Pop Mart with a market value of HK$400 billion, Lao Pu Gold with HK$170 billion, and Mixue Bingcheng with HK$230 billion were born in such a market sentiment.
Unpopular Choices in the Era of Hot Money
The financing of most of these consumer companies in the primary market can be traced back to around 2021, the last frenzy of the previous wave of new - consumer investment.
At that time, Card Hobby and Brukko were emerging companies. They both relied heavily on IP licensing. The former sold trading cards of Ultraman and My Little Pony, while the latter sold Transformers building - block toys. Their consumer groups were mainly teenagers, and their products were all "emotional - consumption" items that seemed "useless."
In the first half of 2020, Chang Kaisi, a partner at Source Code Capital, first met Zhu Weisong, the founder of Brukko. Zhu, who had achieved financial freedom through the listing of his game company Youzu Network, talked enthusiastically about his new company.
He said that users don't pay for the "image" of an IP but