Das vollautomatische Fahrerassistenzsystem FSD von Tesla ist noch nicht da, aber ein kriegerischer Konflikt, der das ganze Spiel auf den Kopf stellen wird, hat bereits begonnen.

An interesting phenomenon is taking place.

People in the automotive circle are all talking about the story of "the wolf is coming". This "wolf" is Tesla's FSD, short for Full Self-Driving. Since Elon Musk visited China in April this year, the rumor that FSD will be launched in China has been like a stone thrown into a lake, and the ripples have not subsided yet.

However, while the shadow of the "wolf" is still on the horizon, the sheep in the pasture have already started to stir prematurely.

Since this spring, a price avalanche around high-level intelligent driving has swept across the entire new energy vehicle market in China without warning. Those functions that were once regarded as important profit points by automobile company executives at product launches and required users to spend tens of thousands of yuan to unlock have suddenly become either free or half-price.

Everyone can smell an unusual atmosphere. This is not just a price cut. It is more like a war initiated by Chinese local players on the eve of the "wolf's" arrival, aiming to overturn the table.

They Overturned the Table Before the "Wolf" Arrived

The story begins in April 2024, which was almost the most competitive month in the automotive circle.

On April 22, Tesla suddenly announced in the US market that it would cut the one-time purchase price of its FSD from $12,000 to $8,000. At the same time, it also launched a monthly subscription option for $99. As soon as the news came out, Chinese automobile companies across the ocean almost immediately responded.

Just two days later, He Xiaopeng, the founder of XPeng Motors, announced on social media that as of now, XPeng's XNGP will be permanently free for all MAX-version models currently on sale.

Previously, this system required additional payment, with prices ranging from 18,000 to 36,000 yuan. He Xiaopeng's move was regarded by the industry as firing the first shot in the "free" high-level intelligent driving era.

Immediately afterwards, the players at the table followed one by one.

When Li Auto launched its new model L6 in May, it made the AD Max version that supports urban NOA a "standard configuration" for high-end models and no longer offered a separate software payment option.

The entry-level model of Huawei's AITO New M7 is directly equipped with Huawei's ADS 2.0 high-level intelligent driving system, which previously required users to spend tens of thousands of yuan to choose.

NIO also lowered the threshold in a more flexible way. Its NOP+ enhanced navigation-assisted driving function launched a monthly subscription service for 380 yuan.

Within just a few weeks, almost all Chinese brands that have made achievements in the field of intelligent driving, such as NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, AITO, Jiyue, and IM Motors, have completed the "price reshaping" of their urban NOA functions.

A "Losing" but Worthwhile Deal

There was a time when the entire automotive industry was immersed in the beautiful dream of "software-defined vehicles".

The core logic of this dream is that in the future, the profits of automobiles will no longer mainly rely on selling cars themselves. Instead, like Apple's App Store, they will make money by continuously selling high-profit software services. High-level intelligent driving is the most attractive piece of cake in this beautiful dream.

However, reality gave this beautiful dream a resounding slap in the face.

Deloitte, a globally renowned management consulting firm, revealed an embarrassing fact for automobile companies in its "2023 Global Automotive Consumer Study": "Chinese consumers have little interest in automobile functions that require subscription fees. They prefer to pay all the fees for functions at once, preferably directly included in the car price."

Another consulting giant, McKinsey, was even more straightforward, stating that "due to the influence of the pricing strategies of leading companies, consumers' willingness and amount to pay for autonomous driving technology have both declined."

In other words, when someone starts to lead the price war, consumers' psychological price threshold collapses. When "free" becomes an option that can be expected, any form of payment becomes extremely difficult.

Automobile companies naturally understand this. Forcibly maintaining a shaky "paywall" will not only bring in little money but also keep a large number of potential users out. And these users are exactly what they most desire now.

There is a term in the industry called "data closed-loop". According to relevant media explanations, it refers to a complete cycle of "data collection, processing, model training, and simulation testing". The starting point of this cycle is a vast amount of real-world road test data.

The reason why Tesla's FSD is considered the "wolf" is that it has a fleet of millions of vehicles globally, which are continuously feeding a vast amount of data into its AI model every day.

Now, Chinese automobile companies are using "free" to exchange for the data generated by users every time they drive on the road in the future.

This is a deal that seems to be a huge loss in the short term but is extremely worthwhile in the long term.

Who Is Betting on the Future of "Data Assets"?

The business model of the automotive industry is undergoing a profound and irreversible transformation. Automobile companies are betting on a future called "data assets".

In the past, the value of a car was mainly reflected in its hardware, such as the engine, transmission, and chassis. The moment the car was sold, its value began to depreciate.

But in the era of software-defined vehicles, the value of an intelligent car is reflected in its continuously upgraded intelligent system.

The moment the car is sold, its value journey has just begun. And the fuel that drives all this is data.

The path to monetize data assets has gradually become clear. A model called UBI (Usage-Based Insurance) is quietly changing the automobile insurance industry - the system will record every safe driving. This data is sufficient to prove the driver's good performance, and automobile manufacturers can cooperate with insurance companies to provide a personalized insurance policy far below the market average. Data is directly converted into real money here.

Data is also helping brands build an insurmountable moat. When the vehicle becomes more and more "understanding", it is no longer a cold means of transportation but a considerate travel partner. This ultimate experience brought about by data and algorithm optimization will form strong user stickiness.

The most distant and grand direction points to the ultimate dream of autonomous driving - Robotaxi. Every private car on the road with the NOA function enabled is now playing the role of a crowdsourced tester. Together, they are drawing a dynamic, vivid, and city-wide data map, which is the infrastructure for realizing full autonomous driving in the future.

By then, automobile manufacturers will no longer be just "manufacturers". They will also have the opportunity to become "travel service operators" like Didi and Uber, which is a much larger market than "selling cars".

So, when we look back at this free-for-all drama triggered by the rumor of Tesla's FSD entering the Chinese market, everything becomes clear.

This is not just a simple price war. It is a profound reset of the "value anchor". Automobile companies have given up the short-term benefits of "selling software" and are betting on the long-term value of "operating data".

The curtain has been raised, and the players at the table have shown their cards.

This article is from the WeChat official account "NEXT Trend". Author: Fang Yuan, Editor: Xiao Yu. Republished by 36Kr with permission.