Apple steht vor einer KI-Krise, und die Zulieferer befinden sich in einer Zwickmühle beim Verlassen der "Apple-Supply-Chain".

Will Apple become the next Nokia?

Since the beginning of this year, the outside world has become increasingly pessimistic about Apple's future. It is deeply mired in the "biggest AI crisis in history," behind which lies Apple's hard - to - ignore innovation slump and management aging. To date, Apple's stock price has fallen by about 16%. In contrast, Meta has risen by 25% and Microsoft by 19%. Apple's performance has significantly lagged behind.

It's not just Apple and Wall Street that are panicking, but also the giant suppliers in China. Over the past decade or more, leading suppliers such as Luxshare Precision, Goertek Inc., and Lens Technology have been deeply rooted in Apple's powerful supply chain, jointly enjoying the infinite glory brought by Apple's rapid progress and growing and expanding. Once Apple goes downhill in the AI era, the more dependent a supplier is on Apple, the greater the impact it will naturally suffer.

Escaping from the Apple supply chain has long become the strategic consensus and transformation direction for most giant suppliers. However, while they are trying to escape, they can't find the next "Apple."

"Diversifying from Apple" and "Diversifying from China"

For a long time, China has always been the core of Apple's supply chain. About 50% of Apple's manufacturing partners are in China. These manufacturing partners have also achieved continuous high - speed growth thanks to Apple's orders, forming a mutually dependent relationship. However, this dependence has gradually become a "crisis" for both sides. One side is busy "diversifying from Apple," while the other is accelerating "diversifying from China."

Judging from the proportion alone, the giant suppliers have achieved initial results in getting rid of the "Apple dependence syndrome."

According to the financial report data, in 2024, the proportion of Goertek Inc.'s sales to its largest customer was 31.96%, while in 2023, this figure reached 43.38%. For Salcomp Technology, the proportion of sales to its largest customer in 2024 was 22.07%, compared with 24.22% in 2023. In 2024, the proportion of Lens Technology's sales to its largest customer was 49.45%, down from 57.83% in 2023 and as high as 71% in 2022. Obviously, the dependence of these companies on their largest customer, which is Apple, has decreased to varying degrees.

Among them, Lens Technology has made particularly significant strides. From 2022 to 2024, the proportion of the company's revenue from Apple has dropped significantly. The proportion of domestic brand customers has rapidly increased from 18% to 41%, while the proportion of export revenue has decreased from 81.94% to 58.63%.

Relatively speaking, Luxshare Precision has achieved little success in "diversifying from Apple." In 2022, Luxshare Precision sold products worth 156.83 billion yuan to its largest customer, Apple, accounting for 73.28%. In 2023, its sales to Apple reached 174.48 billion yuan, and the proportion even increased to 75.24%. In 2024, the revenue from Apple was 190.139 billion yuan, accounting for 70.73%. Although there has been a decline, the proportion has always remained above 70%.

In addition, in its 2024 financial report, Shennan Circuits Co., Ltd. listed its operating income in the US region, which was 28.885 billion yuan, accounting for 82.20% of the total revenue.

In terms of "diversifying from Apple," the performance of giant suppliers is relatively fragmented. However, it is undeniable that Apple is still the well - deserved largest customer, which also determines that the development of these suppliers still has to closely follow Apple's steps. Whatever Apple bets on, they have to follow suit.

For example, regarding foldable screens, market sources quoted supply - chain insiders as saying that Apple plans to decide on the final supply chain for foldable iPhones before April this year, and mass - produce components for foldable iPhones in the second half of the year. From Lens Technology's prospectus, most of the company's planned uses of the raised funds are to cooperate with the strategies of its major customer, that is, Apple's foldable phones.

In the Chinese market, foldable phones are no longer rare. Apple's late entry may not create a miracle, and it is also a high - stakes gamble for the suppliers in the Apple supply chain.

Compared with "diversifying from Apple," Apple's "diversifying from China" process seems to be more fraught with difficulties. Last year, Tim Cook visited China and met with representatives of three major suppliers: BYD, Lens Technology, and Changying Precision. The outside world speculated that Apple's industrial chain might be flowing back to the Chinese mainland. This also indicates that Apple's strategy of shifting orders to India, Vietnam, and diversifying its supply chain in recent years has been hit hard by reality.

Replicating an "Apple supply chain" in Southeast Asia may cost far more than expected.

There is no next "Apple" in the automotive industry

After the giant suppliers in the Apple supply chain chose to accelerate "diversifying from Apple," they almost unanimously targeted another industry - new energy vehicles.

Since 2015, Lens Technology has started to layout in the new - energy vehicle field, focusing on the R & D and mass production of in - vehicle electronic glass and components, in - vehicle central control screens, dashboards, intelligent B - pillars, head - up displays and other products around the intelligent cockpit; Salcomp Technology spent 38 million yuan in 2021 to acquire a company in the "automotive supply chain" and this year bought 66.46% of the equity of Jiangsu Keda, a company with the qualification of a first - tier supplier to many vehicle manufacturers.

Luxshare Precision has made even more aggressive moves in the automotive industry. As early as 2012 and 2013, it acquired Fuzhou Yuanguang and German SuK, respectively entering the automotive electronics and automotive parts fields. Last year, it spent about 525 million euros to acquire 50.1% of the equity of German well - known automotive wiring harness manufacturer Leoni AG and 100% of the equity of its wholly - owned subsidiary Leoni K.

The smartphone market has been declining continuously, while the new - energy vehicle industry is irresistible. It is not surprising that manufacturing giants such as Lens Technology have flocked to the automotive supply chain. Moreover, in this major transformation of the automotive industry, China has become the absolute leader in technology and market, with huge potential in the upstream and downstream industrial chains. However, at present, although the automotive business has shown growth, its contribution to these companies is generally low.

In 2024, Lens Technology's revenue from intelligent vehicles and cockpits, intelligent headsets and wearables, and other intelligent terminals was 5.935 billion yuan, 3.488 billion yuan, and 1.408 billion yuan respectively. Among them, the intelligent vehicle and cockpit business accounted for 8.49% of the revenue; in the first half of 2024, Salcomp Technology's automotive segment accounted for 5.33% and did not generate profits.

From 2022 to 2024, Luxshare Precision's revenue from automotive interconnection products and precision components increased from 6.149 billion yuan to 13.758 billion yuan, which is the fastest - growing. However, compared with the revenue of 190.139 billion yuan from Apple, it is still insignificant.

In the short term, there is still great potential for the growth of the automotive business for Apple - supply - chain companies. However, in the long run, perhaps no automaker can bring them a new wealth - creating myth like Apple did.

To put it simply, Apple's appeal and influence in the smartphone market have enabled it to capture most of the profits, and the suppliers that "ride on Apple's coattails" have also obtained a profit margin higher than the industry average. Their profit scale and company assets have increased significantly in just a few years. On the contrary, in the new - energy vehicle industry, the shockwave of the price war has penetrated the entire industrial chain, resulting in continuous squeezing of profits. Vehicle manufacturers are also constantly shifting pressure to suppliers, leaving many suppliers complaining.

Therefore, even if Apple - supply - chain companies successfully enter the electric - vehicle supply chain, it won't be easy to make money.

According to Bain & Co, in the first quarter of 2025, the profit margin of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the automotive industry continued to decline, dropping to 5.4%. This also marks that the profit margin of suppliers has exceeded that of OEMs for the third consecutive quarter, but the estimated profit margin of suppliers is only 6%.

Of course, the era of high - growth and high - profit for Apple - supply - chain suppliers is over, which is why manufacturing giants are eager to escape.

Taking Luxshare Precision as an example, relevant data shows that in 2015, Luxshare Precision's gross profit margin was as high as 22.88% and the net profit margin was 11.16%. However, in the following years, both the gross profit margin and the net profit margin declined.

In the AI era, which "big shot" should suppliers rely on?

Within the industry, the pessimistic view of Apple has a long history. However, this year, this view is mixed with greater pessimism and disappointment. Due to multiple setbacks, Apple's lag in AI technology has become an indisputable fact, which has greatly shaken its leading position in the field of cutting - edge technology. If Apple fails to be the first to obtain the "ticket" to the AI era, this giant created by Steve Jobs with innovative power will also fade into obscurity in the future.

Therefore, in the AI era, suppliers in the "Apple supply chain" are not putting all their eggs in the Apple basket:

Goertek Inc. is betting on AI - technology - driven smart hardware (VR/MR devices and AI glasses). The experience Luxshare Precision has accumulated in the high - end headset manufacturing field has also been transferred to the AI glasses track. Lens Technology is deeply involved in the R & D of humanoid robots and is also making a layout in AI/AR glasses.

Among them, Goertek Inc.'s transformation has achieved initial results. This year, Meta released its third - generation AI glasses, followed by Xiaomi and Huawei. Apple plans to enter the market in 2026. In the "battle of a hundred glasses," Goertek has quietly become the core supplier for giants such as Meta and Xiaomi.

In the past two years, the rise of global AI technology not only represents a technological leap but also promotes the implementation and popularization of smart terminals such as AI phones, AI PCs, and AI glasses at an unprecedented speed and scale. If the next - generation revolutionary smart terminal is born from these new things, no matter who becomes the "king" in the end, suppliers that seize the dividends of the AI era will make a fortune.

However, the current problem is that from AR/VR devices to AI glasses, the wave of smart hardware has been rising and falling. Once the hype fades, it may end up in a mess.

Foxconn (Hon Hai Precision), which is also deeply bound to Apple, has firmly attached itself to NVIDIA's "thigh" and seems to be riding on the wave. Compared with consumer - facing enterprises or brands, NVIDIA is the "giant" behind the scenes, and it is NVIDIA that has taken the lead in the AI era. As the "exclusive contract manufacturer" for NVIDIA's AI hardware, Foxconn has already reaped some benefits.

Data from Morgan Stanley shows that in 2024, nearly 30% of NVIDIA's AI server orders went to Foxconn, and its share of the contract manufacturing of GB200 and GB300 was as high as 40%, almost monopolizing the production of high - end AI hardware. Orders from NVIDIA have also put Foxconn's performance back on the fast track. According to the released data, in the second quarter of 2025, Foxconn's revenue reached NT $1.797 trillion (approximately 445.1 billion yuan), a year - on - year increase of 15.82%.

With Apple on one hand and NVIDIA on the other, Foxconn can be said to have stepped on the right track precisely. Even if Apple declines, NVIDIA will become the next "pillar." It may also be the first giant to break away from the "Apple supply chain." According to foreign media reports, Foxconn Chairman Young - way Liu expects that the company's server business revenue will exceed its iPhone business revenue within two years.

Of course, if Foxconn becomes overly dependent on NVIDIA, the "Apple dependence syndrome" will turn into the "NVIDIA dependence syndrome."

The automotive industry, smart hardware, humanoid robots... These industries represent the world's top - level technology and naturally require top - level manufacturing capabilities to match. The giant suppliers in the "Apple supply chain" are extending their business tentacles to these fields, betting on the next future. However, not everyone can find the next Apple, and perhaps there is simply no next "Apple" that can bring another major change to the entire consumer electronics market and manufacturing industry.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Dao Zong You Li" (ID: daotmt), author: Dao Zong. It is published by 36Kr with authorization.