In der Venture-Capital-Szene beginnt es populär zu werden, Romane zu schreiben.

On the one hand, there are the "sad continuations" on social media; on the other hand, there are counter - reactions in terms of policy and data.

"It's already 2025, and the stories from last year are still being spread on XHS."

A few days ago, a friend forwarded a well - received note on a self - media platform and wrote: "Is it trendy in the industry now to write novels?"

When I opened the content, it was a fictional story about investment and fundraising. The style was fluent, and many comments pointed to its "truthfulness".

In fact, black - humor notes focusing on "weekly reviews", "layoffs", and "recruitments" have not been rare in the past two years and are even quite popular.

On the one hand, more and more industry employees are sharing notes on social media; on the other hand, there are counter - reactions in terms of policy and data, and the split in the industry is becoming more obvious.

The "Sad Literature of Venture Capital" in the Era of Traffic

There are more and more "sad continuations" on social media.

Some publish notes about weekly reviews and expose the "emperor's new clothes" of the industry with black humor; others publish farewell statements and drag others down with them; still others publish daily schedules to show their hectic state; there are also many contents such as records of industry changes, recruitment offers, and the search for project sources.

This year, the voices of industry employees on social media seem to be continuously rising. In addition to the usual release of news, a new trend has quietly spread - the "novel form" in the industry.

For example, an article about "The Acting Skills of Employees at Different Levels in the Weekly Review Meeting of an Investment Firm" has resonated with industry employees.

This note has triggered nearly a hundred comments from colleagues, and most comments pointed to its "hyper - reality".

Undoubtedly, this style has become the key to traffic in the venture capital industry, which can't help but make people wonder: Why are investors increasingly choosing to "give up investing and devote themselves to literature"?

The reason lies both in the direct projection of work pressure during the industry's adjustment phase and in the reality of the survival bias.

1. We Must Yield to Realism

Recently, a partner of a medium - sized market - oriented GP explained that there are currently only about a hundred private investment firms still carrying out investment activities.

The survival situation of medium - sized GPs is particularly difficult, and "lack of confidence and low morale" have become the norm in recent years.

A friend unfortunately mentioned: "They haven't carried out any investment activities for almost a year, and the fundraising has also made no progress since last year. They are currently just waiting, taking care of post - investment management, and waiting for the exit point."

Since many tasks are difficult to advance and the pressure in the main business is increasing, social media has become a new focus. Therefore, we can observe that more and more industry employees are becoming active on social media, and for some people, their online presence is even higher than their actual offline presence.

2. Survival Bias

On the other hand, this is also a manifestation of the "survival bias".

A partner of a top firm, who used to like to share and often published articles about industry observations, has stopped publishing for two months. In a conversation with him, I learned that he is currently extremely busy and has no time to update the content at all, and he can hardly even find time for interviews with venture - capital media.

Facts show that firms that currently still have money in their accounts, achieve relatively good results, and are able to continuously find high - quality projects often don't like to or don't have time to speak publicly. Therefore, most of the voices in the market come from investors or firms that are currently facing great challenges.

An investor directly said: "This industry has really become difficult. Apart from state - owned capital, some market - oriented GPs are mainly engaged in fulfilling investment - promotion tasks and are no longer VC/PE in the traditional sense."

When the core ability of investors is reduced from industry analysis to "handling reinvestment", professional dignity is severely hit. Therefore, recently, some people on social media have claimed that the industry is "dead".

However, some investors have a different opinion. They think: "It's already 2025, and it's still claimed that the industry is 'dead'. I really don't understand what is actually being emphasized here."

The Truth Behind It

In the past two years, the primary market has experienced several dark hours, and the industry as a whole was under great pressure. But in 2025, several signals indicate that the market is stabilizing and improving.

Currently, there is a clear difference between the continuous pessimistic sentiment and the improvement of the fundamentals. At least in terms of sentiment, they are two extremes.

Behind the "sad literature", several positive developments have already emerged.

1. A New Exit Theme Has Arrived

Regarding exits, regulatory authorities have recently released a series of policy advantages, and the explosive growth of M&A funds has opened a "new exit theme" for the industry.

Data from Zero2IPO shows that in the first half of 2025, 109 Chinese companies went public at home and abroad, representing a 32.9% increase compared to the previous year.

2. The Decision - Making Speed of LPs Increases, and Confidence in Fundraising Improves

Although state - owned capital dominates the fundraising market, the operating mechanism is also continuously being optimized.

According to our observations, the decision - making speed of state - owned LPs in many regions has significantly improved this year, and the reinvestment rate and recognition standards have also continuously improved.

With the continuous relaxation of policies and technological innovation, the confidence of LPs in fundraising has significantly improved, and fundraising has gained momentum. According to the latest data from FOFWEEKLY, the activity of institutional LPs in fundraising improved in June.

3. LPs Are More Patient, and Firms Reconstruct Their Survival Rules

For a long time, the inflow of "long - term capital" has been demanded in China's venture - capital market, and there is a lack of LPs that can bridge the cycle. In the past two years, "patient capital" has become the focus of the industry, and many state - owned funds have begun to break the ice. There are more and more mother funds with a term of 15 years, and some even have a term of up to 20 years. At the same time, the error - tolerance system of state - owned funds is continuously being improved, and many mother funds have clearly stipulated that a maximum loss of 100% for a single company (project) is allowed.

On the GP side, more and more GPs are beginning to deeply integrate with the industry. For example, the new fund of Zhaoxi Capital has reached its first close of 700 million yuan, with industrial LPs accounting for 60%.

Looking back on the past few years, the tightening of IPO review policies has put pressure on the exit path, and the difficulties in exiting have been transferred to fundraising. LPs have become more cautious in fundraising, and the difficulties in the industry have increased.

Since this year, the market and regulatory authorities have continuously released positive impulses, and the activity on the investment side has significantly improved. Many investors and IRs around me have become busy again.

An investor at the forefront of the industry sighed: "The work rhythm is currently very fast, and my travel plans are full. I just met with an LP in Shanghai and will then hurry to Zhejiang, Shenzhen, and other places to visit projects. My suitcase seems to have become part of my daily office equipment and is always ready."

Zheng Juncong, the administrative director of Vertex Ventures, has recently clearly expressed his confidence in the venture - capital market this year in several media interviews: "If last year was a relative trough in the venture - capital market, the market shows a clear upward trend this year." He has observed that the most obvious change is the return of market consensus, especially that entrepreneurs have become more active."

Behind this hustle and bustle reflects a completely different market situation from that on social media, and this points to the increasing split in the market.

Utilizing Regional Value Holes

As market - oriented LPs disappear and state - owned LPs dominate the market, the difficulties in fundraising still exist, and the "lack of money" seems to be the main reason for the difficulties in the industry. But a few firms have still successfully raised capital during the crisis thanks to their professional abilities and rich resources.

Today, Zhongke Chuangxing has announced its first close of 2.6 billion yuan; on June 2nd, the second fund of Inno Angel Capital in Chengdu reached its first close. In addition, funds such as Yunhui Capital, Jiayu Capital, Mifang Health Fund, Cathay Capital, Xin Capital, Fuyuan Investment, etc. have also completed fundraising this year.

Although the theory of "fleeing the primary market" has often appeared on social media in recent years, and there have even been cases where graduates were advised not to enter the industry, industry employees still need to have a clear understanding.

The historical path - dependence is no longer effective: The model in which extraordinary returns were achieved through Internet star projects in the past is difficult to replicate;

The salary advantage compared to other industries still exists: Although the industry is not as prosperous as before, the salary in this industry is still generally higher than in most other industries, even though there have been salary cuts;

The difference in cycle - adaptation ability: The discomfort of industry employees mainly comes from the expectation inertia formed during the high - growth phase.

As a netizen commented: "The current discomfort is like the feeling when you are used to the comfort of the business - class seat on the high - speed train and suddenly switch to an old train."

Although the primary market still faces challenges, the data this year shows all signs of an upswing. For industry employees, it is also important that when the competition on the traditional path becomes intense, to go to the lower levels and look for opportunities there.

1. The Development of Regional Value Holes

Fan Yiyang, a special author of FOFWEEKLY, pointed out in an article: When the traditional path is overcrowded and the growth space is getting narrower. When the way "up" is full of obstacles, looking for structural opportunities "down" will be the key to solving the problems.

In his opinion, one can look for opportunities in third - and fourth - tier cities and in central and western regions.

On the one hand, high - quality GPs from developed eastern regions have little interest in projects in central and western regions and third - and fourth - tier cities; on the other hand, there are differences in professional abilities and resource integration between local GPs and advanced regions, which leads to the risk of inefficient allocation of local state - allocated financial funds.

These contradictions between "external firms not willing to go to the lower levels" and "local firms lacking abilities" show the structural problems in the regional investment ecosystem, but at the same time, market opportunities also arise from them.

2. Converting Traffic into Resources

For writers in the venture - capital industry, they actually hold a weapon in their hands - converting traffic potential into a resource lever.

On the one hand, this can serve as a side job; on the other hand, it is also an effective way to attract resources.

3. Utilizing the Policy Window Period

Driven by policy advantages and technological revolution, the venture - capital industry is facing a strategic opportunity phase to adapt to the new development paradigm. IPOs on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange are accelerating, and the M&A window period has opened.

The window periods of the Chinese capital market have always been rare, and shrewd players have already begun to take the lead.

Conclusion

Currently, the private - equity industry is undergoing a major transformation. Although the challenges still exist, the primary market shows a new enthusiasm, driven by policy favor and technological revolution.

There is no worst time, only people or firms that can't adapt.

The industry is never "dead", but just needs to adapt often. For firms, it is essential to adapt and develop quickly.

Chang Lei Capital has found in an industry observation that