Schrödingersche "Auftauchen aus der Nische" der KI-Brillen

AI glasses are standing at the critical point of "breaking out of the circle." On June 26th, Xiaomi officially launched its first AI glasses with a starting price of 1,999 yuan. Currently, the product is partially shown as "out of stock" on Xiaomi's official flagship store on JD.com. Recently, well - known analyst Ming - Chi Kuo also released the latest product roadmap prediction for Apple's AI glasses, expecting them to be launched in the second quarter of 2027.

In addition, many new and old players in the AI glasses market are intensively "launching new products." Meta announced a partnership with European eyewear manufacturer EssilorLuxottica to launch a new eyewear product line, Oakley Meta. Zhijing Weizhi and Baodao Eyewear's parent company, Star Vision Group, launched a co - branded AI sports shooting glasses, NSVE x BleeqUp. Liweike Technology released three AI glasses in one go.

Overnight, AI glasses seem to have transformed from geek toys into mass consumer products. However, in the past few years, AI glasses have "broken out of the circle" more than once. Almost every time a heavy - weight player enters the market, AI glasses quickly become the focus of public opinion.

However, when people leave the press conference venue, few people wearing AI glasses can be seen on the streets. The reason is that in reality, AI glasses often hesitate on the verge of a breakout due to practical factors such as functional adaptability and price thresholds.

However, smart terminal giants like Xiaomi and Apple have entered the market with their technology portfolios and ecological resources, which is expected to break the existing technological barriers and consumer cognitive boundaries in the market. AI glasses, which have been on the verge of a breakout, may really be able to make a big splash.

Are AI glasses really popular?

According to incomplete statistics, in the past six months, more than 30 domestic and foreign manufacturers have released AI glasses products, including technology giants such as Xiaomi, Baidu, Meta, and Xingji Meizu, emerging brands such as Yingmu Technology, Rokid, and LeTV, as well as traditional eyewear manufacturers such as LOHO and Baodao Eyewear.

Meanwhile, the capital market has also started to stir. Since the end of last year, the AI glasses concept stocks in the A - share market have continued to strengthen. Around the launch of Xiaomi's AI glasses, the cumulative increase of many AI glasses concept stocks exceeded 10%.

Even the clerks in Shenzhen's Huaqiangbei have smelled business opportunities. Some consumer electronics enthusiasts said that the stalls that originally sold Bluetooth earphones have now switched to selling AI glasses, and some "affordable alternatives to big brands" are placed in prominent positions.

In addition, the "popularity" of AI glasses is also supported by data from various institutions. Qunzhi Consulting predicts that the global sales volume will reach 5.7 million units in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 110%. CITIC Securities is even more aggressive, expecting the annual shipment to be about 10 million units by 2025.

Consumers surrounded by AI glasses seem to have come to a realization: AI glasses are really going to become popular. However, if we look back, similar smart wearables like AI glasses have been "popular" many times.

Around 2021, AR/VR devices represented by Meta Quest and ByteDance's Pico also went viral, but they ultimately ended up being neglected by consumers.

In September 2023, Meta collaborated with traditional eyewear brand "Ray - Ban" to create "Ray - Ban Meta." However, users generally preferred its fashionable design and were relatively "indifferent" to its AI functions. It was not until last April, when the new - generation Ray - Ban Meta added the Meta AI large - model, that it was considered a real "intelligent assistant" like in science - fiction movies.

The popularity of this product also heated up the AI glasses market. In the second half of last year, more technology companies and Internet giants began to pour into the AI glasses market, and the topic of the "battle of a hundred glasses" became the focus of the technology circle for a while.

However, beneath this excitement, AI glasses show very different performances on the data side and the user side. Although AI glasses are making great progress in marketing topics, in real - life scenarios, consumers' attitude towards AI glasses remains at the "wait - and - see" stage rather than truly "embracing" them. Dai Qianhui, an analyst at Toubao Research Institute, pointed out in an interview with the media that the penetration rate of AI glasses in China is still less than 1%.

On the one hand, the sharp increase in the shipment volume of AI glasses in the past year is based on a low base. In 2023, the shipment volume of AI glasses in China was about 500,000 units. In 2024, the AI glasses industry only saw a full - scale breakout after the launch of the new - generation Ray - Ban Meta.

According to Weishen Information, the global sales volume of AI glasses reached 2.34 million units in 2024, of which the sales volume of Ray - Ban Meta accounted for more than 95%. This means that although the entire AI glasses market seems prosperous, it can only satisfy a few people. For example, the LeTV V3, which sells the best among domestic AI glasses, only sold a few thousand units in its e - commerce flagship store in the past 30 days.

On the other hand, AI glasses still have deficiencies in user experience. Although the components of AI glasses such as chips, sensors, and batteries have been continuously miniaturized, it is still difficult to meet the "impossible triangle" of high computing power, long battery life, and comfortable wearing at the same time.

Although the weight of AI glasses has been continuously reduced, and the general weight is around 40g, compared with traditional glasses weighing 20g - 30g, consumers still tend to feel uncomfortable when wearing them for a long time. In addition, the problem of insufficient battery life is also common.

In addition, the intelligent functions of some AI glasses also face many challenges. For example, the AI functions are mainly concentrated in low - frequency scenarios such as Q&A, translation, and guiding tours, and they still need to rely on mobile phones for operation, failing to form a complete ecological closed - loop.

Li Nan, a former senior executive of Meizu, expressed his views on Xiaomi's AI glasses through social media. He believes that Xiaomi's AI glasses outperform Meta in terms of technology platform, charging, and battery life, but its AI functions mainly rely on Xiaoai, and the overall AI ability is limited.

An electronics agent in Huaqiangbei said, "The price of AI glasses with large - models is high. Most people buy them just for the novelty. Not everyone wants to wear glasses. Earphones have a wider range of applications and are cheaper."

When consumers' novelty fades, whether AI glasses are "popular" or not is like "Schrödinger's cat." Some people see the crazy growth in shipment volume, while others are still waiting for a compelling reason to buy.

Staking out territory and playing the "ecosystem card"

For most AI manufacturers, although the user's product experience is important, seizing the market first is equally crucial. Because AI glasses are not only a smart product but also a traffic entrance connecting users with virtual reality.

In addition, there is a huge ecosystem behind AI glasses. However, the prerequisite is to attract as many developers and users as possible. Only when most users start wearing AI glasses can manufacturers continue to develop the ecosystem.

Therefore, since last year, major AI manufacturers have accelerated the launch of new products and targeted the original pain points of AI glasses for iteration and upgrading. For example, in terms of price, the price of AI glasses has become more and more affordable.

Products that cost tens of thousands of yuan three years ago are now priced in the 2,000 - yuan range. Coupled with the national subsidy that includes AI glasses in the scope of digital product subsidies, consumers only need to pay a few hundred yuan at the lowest to try them out, further reducing the purchase threshold.

The change in weight is even more obvious. The full - color array waveguide technology of LeTV's new - generation AR glasses X3 Pro greatly reduces the size of the optical body, and the frame weighs only 76 grams. The frameless version of Liweike's City Air removes fancy functions and further reduces the weight to 23 grams.

At the hardware level, AI glasses are also getting closer to high - end smartphones. For example, Xiaomi's AI glasses adopt a dual - chip architecture of Qualcomm Snapdragon AR1 chip and BES2700H chip, which can support complex tasks such as real - time translation and intelligent object recognition, and also ensure high - quality image output.

At the software level, eyewear manufacturers are implementing various AI functions in batches. In this process, technology giants and AI glasses manufacturers are starting to "marry" each other, and the smart terminal ecosystem is forming alliances.

For example, Alibaba invested in LeTV Innovation, using glasses to connect payment, navigation, and social networking to build a "new entrance for human - machine interaction." Li Shufu promoted his company's Xingji Meizu StarV Air2 in a recent public speech. This is an important part of Geely's business layout of "mobile phones + XR + smart cars." Google announced a partnership with Chinese company XREAL and jointly released a new - generation AI glasses Project Aura, which will conduct ecological layout based on the Android XR platform jointly developed by Google, Samsung, and Qualcomm.

It can also be seen from a series of actions of AI glasses manufacturers that they are also trying to break the perception that AI glasses are just "useless products."

In fact, the hardware threshold for AI glasses is not high. Many components are already mature modules. There are even many smart glasses priced under 100 yuan on e - commerce platforms, which have simple functions such as taking photos and videos.

Therefore, although AI glasses priced at thousands of yuan have more intelligent functions, consumers still use functions such as taking photos, videos, and audio the most. If AI glasses cannot completely replace ordinary glasses and transform from "glasses worn for certain functions" to "regular glasses with certain functions," they will still be regarded as dispensable products by consumers.

Therefore, since this year, AI glasses manufacturers have not only started to improve the wearing experience and optimize the design from a hardware perspective but also put forward higher requirements for software innovation, making AI glasses transform from meeting "useless functions" to becoming "scene - specific necessities":

For example, Baidu's Xiaodu AI glasses support real - time dialect translation and automatic generation of meeting minutes. The AR navigation jointly developed by LeTV X3Pro and Gaode Map can project route arrows directly on real streets, freeing users' hands for navigation. The imagination space of AI glasses at the application level is being further expanded.

The "affordable and high - quality" Xiaomi has arrived

However, the industry still seems to be lacking a catalyst for a full - scale breakout, and Xiaomi's entry has become the best boost.

Firstly, Xiaomi's AI glasses have the important significance of "educating the market." Xiaomi has always had the brand positioning of "the first XX for young people." From home appliances and cars to AI glasses, Xiaomi has become the first choice for young consumers to buy their first product in different fields with its "technology for all" approach.

Lei Jun, the founder of Xiaomi, mentioned at the press conference that "AI glasses are personal intelligent devices for the next generation." Xiaomi's AI glasses have successfully aroused consumers' curiosity and demand for this product. A clerk at a Xiaomi Home store said that nine out of ten customers who came to the store were there to learn about Xiaomi's AI glasses.

Secondly, in addition to brand appeal, the entry of smart terminal giants like Xiaomi and Apple will greatly drive the development of the relevant industrial chain. Currently, the AI glasses industry is still in the early exploration stage. Most manufacturers are only exploring single - function breakthroughs. However, Xiaomi has a global supply - chain system accumulated over the years. Its supply - chain control enables it to systematically optimize modules such as optical display, computing chips, and biosensors, which can not only further reduce procurement costs but also promote industrial - chain innovation.

Thirdly, the Xiaomi ecosystem is the key for AI glasses to enter daily life. When talking about AI glasses, the market has realized that "having hardware but no ecosystem" is the biggest weakness of this product. Currently, AI glasses manufacturers hope to achieve scale first and then polish the ecosystem and products.

Xiaomi has been deploying in the "full - scenario ecosystem" for a long time. In addition to smartphones as its foundation, it also has an independently developed system and a rich variety of ecosystem products. This is the foothold for Xiaomi's AI glasses to be launched first.

However, to win in the long - distance race, AI ability is the decisive factor. In this regard, Internet giants have stronger comprehensive strength. They can connect different scenarios such as work, entertainment, and life, providing users with a more seamless and intelligent experience.

It is foreseeable that the AI glasses industry may face a reshuffle in the future. The advantages of mobile phone manufacturers and Internet giants may accelerate the merger and acquisition of small and medium - sized manufacturers.

Fortunately, the AI glasses industry is still far from being highly concentrated. For AI glasses manufacturers, the earlier they enter the market and the earlier they teach users how to use AI glasses well, the more opportunities they will have to gain an advantage in the future.

The "battle of a hundred glasses" has begun. With the entry of more smart giants such as Xiaomi, Huawei, and Apple, the butterfly's wings have started to flap, and a more violent storm is brewing. How AI glasses will change the future remains to be explored by more participants.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Bohu Finance," author: Kaikai. It is published by 36Kr with permission.