Tesla Robotaxi: Eine Branchenumbildung im Billionen-Maßstab, wie viel davon verstehen Sie?

Nearly a year has passed since Tesla ignited the global frenzy for Robotaxi (driverless taxis) with a press conference on August 8, 2024.

In this past year, we've witnessed a great deal: from the limited deployment in pilot cities like Austin in the initial weeks to the endless "real - life shots by passers - by" on social media—awkward hesitations at complex intersections, "strikes" in adverse weather conditions, and direct "confrontations" with competitors like Waymo on the streets.

The grand narratives of "revolutionizing transportation" and "re - evaluating assets" at the initial press conference have now been tempered into complex textures in the real world. The market frenzy has gradually cooled, replaced by more weighty questions. For decision - makers, investors, and entrepreneurs in the industry wave, the question is no longer "What is Robotaxi?" but rather: When ideals meet reality, what is the actual progress of this trillion - level game? After the hype, how can we understand and place bets on the "deep - water area" challenges that truly determine success or failure?

Three Disruptive Visions Brought by Robotaxi

Tesla's Robotaxi has caught everyone's attention because it depicts a highly disruptive future:

The Endgame of Mobility as a Service (MaaS): Elon Musk envisions that in the future, the value of a car will no longer be measured by horsepower or range but by the amount of service value it can create each day. At that time, millions of Tesla owners can add their idle vehicles to the sharing network, creating a huge decentralized transportation platform that will completely disrupt the Uber and traditional taxi industries.

A Bold Bet on the "Pure Vision" Approach: Different from competitors like Waymo, which rely on expensive lidar and high - precision maps in a "heavy - loaded and slow - paced" model, Tesla adheres to the "pure vision" approach that only relies on cameras and neural networks. Once successful, its marginal cost will be extremely low, with the terrifying potential for rapid replication and expansion globally.

Re - evaluation of Asset Value: A private car is used for less than 1.5 hours per day on average, while a Robotaxi can be used for up to 16 hours. Cars will transform from "consumer goods" to "means of production," completely rewriting the valuation logic of the entire automotive industry and even cities.

These visions are undoubtedly exciting. But if your understanding stops here, you're still only seeing the tip of the iceberg.

The "Soul - Searching Questions" Decision - Makers Must Face

For decision - makers who truly need to make judgments and investments, the "tough nuts to crack" beyond the applause and PowerPoint presentations are the key. A member of the expert team at Silicon Rabbit, a former chief scientist at a top autonomous driving company, raised three thorny issues regarding Tesla's Robotaxi at a recent closed - door meeting:

1. Technical Route: Is the "end - to - end AI" of FSD V12 an epoch - making revolution or just an "optimization" in specific scenarios? How does it perform in extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain and snow, as well as in "long - tail scenarios" with ambiguous traffic rules?

During the tests in Austin, the vehicles still had safety drivers and a remote takeover function from the back - end. This means that from L4 - level "conditional autonomous driving" to L5 - level "fully autonomous driving," where exactly is the most difficult "last mile" bottleneck?

2. Business Model: How will Tesla balance the self - operated fleet and the model of private car participation? How will it solve a series of complex problems such as liability determination, insurance, and maintenance brought about by private car participation?

Waymo has achieved commercial operations in multiple locations in the United States, with an annual revenue of nearly $100 million and has a first - mover advantage. How will Tesla compete in cities where Waymo has already established barriers? Can the "light - loaded and fast - paced" approach really outperform the "heavy - loaded and slow - paced" one?

3. Industrial Chain: What kind of challenges will the large - scale deployment of Robotaxi pose to the urban charging network and data centers? How will the insurance industry redesign a pricing and claims settlement system for autonomous driving?

Among the upstream chip suppliers (such as NVIDIA), sensor and camera suppliers, who will be the biggest beneficiaries, and who will be disrupted?

No public report can give you definite answers to these questions. The answers only exist in the minds of those who are currently solving these problems within companies like Tesla, Waymo, and NVIDIA.

Cutting Through the Fog: You Need an "Insider's Perspective" of the Industry

At Silicon Rabbit, we firmly believe that real first - hand experience comes from those who are driving industry change themselves.

Facing the huge opportunities and uncertainties brought by Robotaxi, making decisions based on public information is nothing more than armchair strategizing. Our mission is to provide you with an "insider's perspective" to cut through the fog, a powerful "cheat" for decision - making.

When you're arguing about the reliability of the "pure vision" approach, we can connect you with a core engineer at Tesla who is responsible for FSD or the hardware system to hear firsthand about the challenges and breakthroughs encountered in real - world road tests.

When you're evaluating investment opportunities in the industrial chain, we can arrange a in - depth conversation for you with a scientist at NVIDIA who is responsible for autonomous driving solutions or a former commercialization strategy expert at Waymo to gain insights into the future of computing power and commercialization paths.

We have more than 30,000 executives from top Silicon Valley companies, core technology experts, well - known university professors, and entrepreneurs. They not only have profound industry experience but are also deeply involved in industry change, with vivid and credible first - hand insights.

Case Review: Not long ago, we organized a high - end closed - door exchange for a top domestic securities firm and a public fund. Instead of providing them with a thick report, we directly invited four top experts, including the technical leader of an AI flagship project at a globally leading Internet company and the GenAI technology director of a global social platform.

During several hours of in - depth discussions, our clients were able to directly ask the most pointed and specific questions, such as "The evolution path of multi - modal AI models" and "The real challenges of GenAI in advertising recommendation systems."

After the meeting, a fund manager sighed: "The gains in these few hours far exceeded months of previous research. We have a brand - new and clearer understanding of the subsequent industry research framework and asset allocation."

Efficiency and Precision: We understand the importance of seizing the time window. Silicon Rabbit's rapid response mechanism ensures that we can complete the entire process from understanding your needs to matching experts within 3 - 5 working days, helping your company seize the opportunity and get ahead in the fierce competition.

Conclusion

The pebble thrown by Tesla's Robotaxi will create an industrial ripple that lasts for years or even decades.

In this transformation, don't just be an information receiver and a trend spectator. By connecting with the world's top intellects, you can become a participant who can spot opportunities and seize them.

What do you think of the future of Tesla's Robotaxi?

This article is from the WeChat official account "Silicon Rabbit" (ID: gh_1faae33d0655). Author: Silicon Rabbit. Republished by 36Kr with permission.