Unter der Lücke von 5,5 Millionen Pflegekräften "nehmen die "elektronischen Enkel" in Altenheimen ihren Dienst auf. Wie können Pflegeroboter die Lebensabende von 300 Millionen Menschen sichern?

China's aging population is advancing at an extremely high - speed pace: The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that at the end of 2024, the population aged 60 and above reached 310 million (accounting for 22%), and it is expected to exceed 400 million by 2035.

A report from the World Health Organization (WHO) further points out that the aging speed in China is significantly faster than that in other middle - and low - income countries. By 2040, the proportion of the population aged 60 and above will soar from 12.4% in 2010 to 28%.

In sharp contrast to this data is the shortage of care resources in China. Relevant reports show that in 2024, the shortage of elderly care workers in China had reached 5.5 million, and the number of disabled elderly people reached 40 million. More seriously, there are only 20,000 certified caregivers nationwide, and the actual demand gap reaches tens of millions. Among the existing care workforce, women aged 40 - 60 account for over 80%, and the proportion of young people in the industry is less than 5%.

When the traditional human - supply model becomes unsustainable, the value of the technological approach suddenly becomes prominent. Japan, with an aging rate of 29.1%, has taken the lead in exploring the technological path: Panasonic's wearable nursing robots have served over 100,000 elderly people in total; Toyota's transfer robots have a penetration rate of 47% in nursing institutions; SoftBank's Pepper robot alleviates the anxiety of dementia patients through emotional interaction. These technological achievements confirm the potential of elderly care robots to break the deadlock.

SoftBank's Pepper robot

When technology becomes a necessity, China's elderly care industry is entering the fast lane of development. While envisioning an ideal smart elderly care world, it also needs to face real - world challenges and explore the future picture of technology - enabled elderly care.

The triple dividends detonate a 50 - billion - yuan market, and the elderly care robot industry is on the verge of explosion

The elderly population in China is facing challenges of multiple diseases, disability, and living alone. Relevant data shows that from 2021 to 2023, the number of disabled elderly people aged 60 and above nationwide reached 46.54 million. Among the 190 million chronic disease patients, 43% suffered from multiple diseases simultaneously. In some areas, the proportion of elderly people living alone exceeded 70%.

Elderly care robots, specifically designed to solve the problems in elderly care, integrate AI, sensor, and mechanical engineering technologies. They are precisely adapted to the characteristics of the functional decline of the elderly and provide assistance in scenarios such as daily care, health management, and emotional companionship.

In 2025, the triple dividends of policy, capital, and technology resonate, promoting China's elderly care robot industry to accelerate the transition from technical verification to large - scale application.

At the policy level, the state injects strong impetus into the development of the elderly care robot industry through a three - pronged strategy of "laying a foundation with standards, empowering with subsidies, and leading with pilot projects." In February this year, IEC63310, the world's first international standard for elderly care robots led by China, was officially released, setting international benchmarks for product safety and aging - friendly design.

Local policies are also making efforts simultaneously. Shanghai offers a maximum subsidy of 50,000 yuan per unit in pilot projects. Shenzhen provides a subsidy of 30% of the selling price, with a maximum of 10,000 yuan per customer. Xi'an offers a 30% purchase subsidy for elderly care institutions. The combination of policies is rapidly eliminating the problem of "unaffordability" and stimulating market vitality.

In June, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs jointly launched the "paired research and development and scenario application pilot project." It requires the deployment and verification in 200 households and 20 institutions to be completed by 2027, the establishment of a three - dimensional evaluation system for safety, aging - friendliness, and economy, and the promotion of including products in the payment scope of long - term care insurance.

Capital is also extremely enthusiastic about this field. According to AgeClub, from the beginning of 2024 to May this year, there have been 112 investment and financing events (incomplete statistics) in the field related to smart elderly care, with the investment amount reaching 11.6 billion yuan. Among them, the financing amount of sub - sectors such as rehabilitation robots and exoskeleton robots has increased significantly. For example, Fourier Intelligence (receiving an investment of 800 million yuan) and Oshaw Intelligent (launching a thousand - yuan - level exoskeleton product) are accelerating the implementation of scenarios through technological breakthroughs.

Regarding the prediction of the market size of elderly care robots, the report "The Panoramic Map of China's Elderly Care Robot Industry in 2024" shows that the market size in 2024 was approximately 7.9 billion yuan. Based on a compound growth rate of 15%, it will reach 15.9 billion yuan in 2029.

The China Research and Intelligence Industry Research Institute is more optimistic in its "Analysis Report on the Current Situation and Future Development Trend of the Elderly Care Robot Industry from 2024 to 2029." It estimates that the market size in 2024 has exceeded 30 billion yuan and is expected to climb to 50 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 30%.

In terms of technology, the breakthroughs in embodied intelligence models and the application of cable - driven robotic arms have significantly accelerated the implementation process of elderly care robots.

In the field of embodied intelligence, Huawei's CloudRobo platform constructs a full - chain technology system, enabling complex task planning and precise control. The DuoCore system of Stardust Intelligence simulates the human neural mechanism, ensuring safe and efficient human - machine interaction.

In terms of cable - driven robotic arms, Estun's rehabilitation training system assists patients' rehabilitation with precise force feedback, and the large - angle robotic arm developed by Harbin Institute of Technology provides technical support for complex nursing scenarios, comprehensively promoting the practical application of elderly care robots.

Driven by policies, capital, and technology, the industrial ecosystem has formed a diversified competition and cooperation pattern. Professional enterprises such as Fourier and Medidata Technology are deeply involved in sub - sectors, while technology giants such as Huawei and Xiaomi are entering the field across industries. Midea and others are promoting collaborative development based on the smart home ecosystem. All parties are jointly promoting the maturity of the industrial ecosystem.

However, there are hidden challenges behind the prosperity. From the high idle rate of rehabilitation robots, to the incompetence of nursing robots in complex environments, to the bottleneck of emotional interaction that companion robots can hardly break through, every gap between the ideal and the reality mercilessly reveals the deep - seated dilemmas in the elderly care robot industry.

The ideal world and the real - world gap of robot - assisted elderly care

In the collision between the aging wave and technological innovation, elderly care robots are trying to reconstruct the elderly care ecosystem with intelligent solutions. Currently, the main types of elderly care robots include three core categories:

Firstly, rehabilitation robots integrate robot technology and rehabilitation medicine, providing limb movement assistance (exoskeleton robots improve gait), post - operative rehabilitation training (AI - driven personalized training programs), pain relief (precision acupoint moxibustion robots), and other services. Currently, they dominate the market with a 60% share (data from IFR).

Fourier's rehabilitation robot

Enterprises deeply involved in this field include Zhuodao Medical, Siasun Robot & Automation, Fourier Rehabilitation (a sub - brand of Fourier), Oshaw Intelligent, Maibu Robot, Chengtian Technology, Yinhe General, Rushen Robot, and Taihu Robot.

Secondly, nursing robots are intelligent "life assistants" and "health managers." They undertake important tasks such as daily care and health monitoring, covering intelligent nursing beds, multi - functional transfer machines, and other intelligent devices. Currently, they rank second with a 34% market share. Enterprises such as Medidata Technology, Fourier, and Stardust Intelligence are all deploying in this direction.

Stardust Intelligence's elderly care robot

Thirdly, companion robots fill the gap in the spiritual companionship of the elderly through emotional computing and multi - modal interaction. They come in various types and can provide services such as emotional interaction, social support, and entertainment interaction.

For example, Elephant Robotics has launched bionic companion robots, including metaPanda AI, metaCat AI, metaDog AI, etc., which are designed based on real animals such as pandas, long - haired cats, and dogs.

Elephant Robotics' robot products

Each type of product carries the beautiful vision of "breaking through the elderly care dilemma with technology," but the actual application exposes many contradictions:

Rehabilitation robots aim to help the elderly reshape their motor abilities and achieve "precise rehabilitation" through AI - personalized training and intelligent exoskeleton devices. However, due to the operation relying on professional therapists (the equipment availability rate in county - level hospitals nationwide is only 12%), 83% of the equipment is idle (data from the Chinese Association of Rehabilitation Medicine). The cost of over 500,000 yuan per unit keeps ordinary families away, and they are only limited to medical institutions and high - end communities.

The concept of "fully automated care" of nursing robots often fails in complex scenarios: They not only have difficulty in precisely controlling the force when feeding but also often get into trouble due to inaccurate navigation in unstructured environments such as irregular furniture layouts and clutter on the floor at home, making the beautiful vision of "all - weather guardianship" difficult to achieve.

Although companion robots try to become "electronic relatives" through emotion recognition and natural dialogue, a survey by Beijing Normal University shows that 78% of users experience "electronic pet burnout" within 6 months, and the stylized responses make it difficult to establish an emotional connection. Despite the average price of 12,000 yuan, the retention rate of less than 6 months still makes the business model unsustainable, creating a sharp contradiction between the vision of "emotional companionship" and the reality of "human - machine alienation."

The huge gap between the ideal and the reality essentially exposes multiple serious problems in the elderly care robot industry:

At the technical level, the battery life of mainstream products is only 2 - 6 hours (as low as 2 - 4 hours for exoskeletons), far lower than the 12 - hour requirement of the IEC63310 standard. The robotic arms have a 22% collision rate due to the lack of 0.01N・m - level torque control, and the load - bearing capacity is less than 5 kg.

At the cost level, the R & D cost of a single rehabilitation robot exceeds 200 million yuan, 70% of the core components rely on imports, and the selling price of 500,000 yuan far exceeds the family's affordability limit of 15,000 yuan. Policy subsidies still cannot reverse the enterprises' losses.

In terms of data, high - quality behavioral data for elderly care robots is scarce. Training a fall - detection model requires millions of yuan for data annotation, and the sensor deviation rate reaches 15% due to the loose skin of the elderly. Moreover, there is a lack of available elderly care data both at home and abroad, and laboratory data cannot support decision - making in complex scenarios.

Ethically, the all - day "intelligent monitoring" is involved in the controversy of a "digital prison." 87% of the elderly refuse robot intervention in private nursing due to a sense of dignity being damaged.

What's more cruel is the imbalance in efficiency: The annual maintenance cost of a 500,000 - yuan device can train 20 caregivers but can only serve 30 elderly people. The 83% idle rate of exoskeleton robots confirms that their auxiliary value is overestimated. When rehabilitation robots are confined to hospitals, nursing robots "malfunction" at home, and companion robots become "electronic pets," the reality shows that current elderly care robots are only "excellent students in the exhibition hall" and cannot be good "life assistants" for home - based elderly care, making it difficult to meet the needs of 300 million elderly people in their later years.

The future picture: Machines support the physical world, and humans safeguard the spiritual home

Industry insiders point out that current elderly care robots are mostly specialized equipment designed to meet single - scenario needs. Although they have broad prospects, they still need to break through key bottlenecks such as technological improvement and cost control before becoming popular helpers for home - based elderly care.

In 2025, the explosive development of humanoid robots has injected new variables into the elderly care field: from the laboratory to nursing homes, from technological concepts to scenario verification -

On June 6th, Stardust Intelligence's AstribotS1 humanoid robot accompanied a group of elderly people in practicing Baduanjin in a nursing home in Shenzhen. Its cable - driven bionic joints achieve millimeter - level motion accuracy and can safely complete tasks such as supporting and carrying.

Stardust Intelligence's AstribotS1 humanoid robot

As early as September 24th, 2024, Tencent's RoboticsX Laboratory released the humanoid robot "The Five." It adopts a four - legged and wheeled composite design, can switch between four - wheel or two - wheel modes for efficient movement on flat ground, is covered with a large - area tactile skin with 180 detection points, and is equipped with a multi - fingered dexterous hand, which can precisely sense the force and avoid causing accidental injuries to the elderly.