Der Moment des Erwachens aus Elon Musks Traum
The Starship exploded again.
On the evening of June 18th local time, the "Starship" of SpaceX, a space exploration technology company owned by Elon Musk, malfunctioned during a static fire test and exploded. The fire department was dispatched to extinguish the fire, and SpaceX also launched an investigation into the cause of the explosion.
Subsequently, SpaceX stated on the social media platform X that the "Starship" was preparing for its tenth flight test, and a "major anomaly" occurred on the test stand at the Starbase.
This is the fifteenth explosion of the Starship. Nine of them occurred during official test flight missions (mostly during the separation and re - entry phases), and more than six were failures during ground tests (including prototype tests and static fire tests). Although Musk can always say that these are "data collection opportunities", and indeed SpaceX adheres to a "rapid trial - and - error" strategy, so a few more explosions don't really matter.
However, this explosion happened at a crucial time when Musk's other company, the AI startup X AI, was raising funds, and when Musk was having a hard time in his "political career" and needed the Starship to boost his morale. This explosion was like adding insult to injury.
Currently, Musk needs new "winning points" to boost confidence. Besides testing the Starship, he is also promoting a new round of financing for X AI. According to the leaked investor documents, X AI is in negotiations for a $4.3 billion equity financing. According to the documents, one reason why X AI is eager to raise funds is that it has already spent most of the previously raised funds.
The documents show that since its establishment in 2023, X AI has raised $14 billion through equity financing. As of March 31st, there was only $4 billion in cash left on the company's balance sheet. The rate of burning money is comparable to the rate at which the Starship burns fuel.
After saying that he would "spend more time focusing on his own companies", Musk has faced a series of setbacks. First, his social platform X suffered a large - scale outage, affecting tens of thousands of users in the United States and thousands of users in many countries such as Germany, Spain, and France. Then, the Starship exploded.
Having bad luck in both politics and business, Musk is having a rough time.
01
Since the day Musk publicly announced his support for Donald Trump, it has been obvious to the outside world that the cooperation between these two highly narcissistic individuals was just a temporary arrangement for mutual benefit. However, it only took less than a year for their relationship to go from "inseparable" to "going their separate ways", which shows their high - efficiency.
In June, shortly after officially leaving the Office of Government Efficiency, Musk posted on "X" criticizing the large - scale tax and spending bill promoted by the Trump administration. He believed that the Office of Government Efficiency had become the "scapegoat" for everything and said that if it weren't for his efforts, the Republican Party would have lost the election last year. Moreover, Musk reposted old news about Jeffrey Epstein to attack Trump's personal conduct.
Musk's defection attracted a wave of scolding from Republican supporters, and Democratic figures also watched with amusement. Tesla, which was not well - received by either side, was severely impacted, and its market value evaporated by nearly $150 billion in just a few days.
Just when Democratic media were eagerly waiting for Musk to produce solid evidence against the Trump administration, Musk immediately changed his tune and claimed on the X platform that he had gone too far with his remarks and felt regretful. Around the same time, Musk's father defended his son in an interview with Russian media, saying that the world's richest man was under too much pressure and needed a "good rest".
Musk "backed down" even faster than the outside world expected.
Facing Musk, who backed down so quickly, Trump outwardly showed a magnanimous attitude and accepted Musk's apology. He said, "I don't blame him for anything. I'm just a little disappointed."
Musk's sudden change of attitude was not without reason, because Trump holds the trump card.
After all, the rise of Musk's SpaceX is closely related to the strong financial support from the US government.
During the difficult period when rocket launches kept failing, SpaceX received huge orders from NASA, directly took over the launch tasks of NASA's retired space shuttles, obtained partial technical authorization from the Apollo program, and made use of NASA's professional talents.
Currently, more than 70% of SpaceX's revenue comes from the US government. It has received a total of $15 billion in contracts from NASA and $7 billion in contracts from the Pentagon. It undertakes many key space missions, including rocket launches, lunar exploration, and the Artemis lunar mission. The Starlink network provides communication services for about 50 military command centers, and it has also undertaken a top - secret project of building a spy satellite network for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).
Whether the Democrats or the Republicans are in power, SpaceX has benefited. After Musk helped Trump return to the White House, Musk even wanted to directly intervene in the selection of the head of NASA.
According to media reports, Musk recommended his business ally, Jared Isaacman, who once flew to Earth's orbit on a SpaceX spacecraft, to be the head of NASA. Isaacman is the CEO of the payment processing company Shift4 Payments, has no political experience, and was once a major donor to the Democratic Party.
Actually, it was Gore, the White House personnel director who didn't get along well with Musk, who persuaded Trump to revoke Isaacman's nomination as the head of NASA on May 31st, which became the last straw that broke the camel's back in their relationship.
According to insiders, after a fierce argument between Musk and Trump, the White House instructed the US Department of Defense and NASA to review the details of SpaceX's contracts. In addition, to avoid the risks brought by Musk's unstable emotions, the Pentagon is also considering reducing SpaceX's participation in the new - generation missile defense system. Of course, the White House spokesperson denied that this was targeted at SpaceX and emphasized that Trump treats all contracts "equally".
There are many people who dislike Musk, and Gore is just one of them.
In May 2015, the US military issued a certification to SpaceX, allowing it to enter the US military launch market. Although the military has extensive business dealings with SpaceX, many senior military officials have complaints about Musk.
Facing Musk, who has always had out - of - the - ordinary words and deeds, the military has always been skeptical about his ability to keep secrets. According to media reports, Musk has never obtained the access right to the "Sensitive Compartmented Information (SCI)" that requires additional authorization. He has no right to enter most of SpaceX's classified facilities and doesn't know which military satellites are carried on the launched rockets. Even so, in December 2024, Musk was subjected to a military review for repeatedly violating federal reporting agreements.
In this quarrel, although military personnel may not be Trump's supporters, most of them agree that Musk's influence in the official sphere should be weakened. "This is not a TV show; it's a matter of national security."
Therefore, once Trump's attitude completely changes, there are plenty of people who can help him come up with a plan to "restrain" Musk. The federal government doesn't even need to cancel the contracts; adding a few more review steps will be enough to severely damage SpaceX's cash flow.
When Tesla is facing increasing difficulties, stabilizing SpaceX's business is especially important for Musk, who is in a difficult situation. After weighing the pros and cons, it's not hard to understand why he backed down so quickly.
However, what Musk didn't expect was that the Starship exploded again. This has provided more "ammunition" for his "political enemies", the military, and the United Launch Alliance to attack him.
Even if Trump wants to "forgive and forget" and help SpaceX continue to fulfill its contracts, if the Starship keeps exploding, lobbying groups will still have sufficient reasons to force Trump to put this idea on hold or even abandon it.
02
If the space program represents Musk's future, then Tesla is the foundation of his fortune.
In the first quarter of 2025, Tesla's financial report was a disaster. The global vehicle delivery volume was 336,700, a year - on - year decrease of 13%; the revenue was $13.967 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 19.6%.
Musk's full - scale "return" can indeed boost market confidence and lift the low morale within the company. However, the spiritual boost can only have limited effects. This pioneer in the new - energy vehicle industry is becoming more and more like an "old - fashioned" company in the fierce market competition. Since the launch of the Model Y, its main models have not been upgraded for five years.
With the industry - wide technological upgrade, Tesla's cost - production advantage has not only been surpassed by Chinese new - energy vehicle manufacturers but also caught up with by traditional European and American automakers. Although the oddly - shaped Cybertruck has generated a lot of buzz, its sales performance has been poor.
Musk must improve his products to give the market hope that Tesla can regain its leading position.
Just after the quarrel with Trump subsided, Musk publicly announced that he would deliver the first fully autonomous driving car in Austin, Texas on June 22nd and promote the trial operation of the Robotaxi service.
The speed of this transition makes people suspect that the quarrel was an intentional hype.
According to the first - quarter financial report, the total mileage of Tesla's FSD has exceeded 3.5 billion miles. Compared with its competitors, Tesla has a large amount of real - world driving data, which can help it better train its autonomous driving system. This is also the reason why Musk firmly believes that he can stand out in the industry competition.
According to Musk's logic, once cars are upgraded to tools that can help owners earn money automatically, users' willingness to subscribe to autonomous driving services will increase rapidly, and the much - criticized depreciation rate of new - energy vehicles will also be improved.
However, the progress of the Robotaxi trial operation also depends on the approval of regulatory authorities.
In order to ensure the leading position and influence of US companies in the industry, the US transportation department has gradually relaxed the restrictions on autonomous driving. However, a series of accidents involving Tesla's FSD in 2024 have triggered an uproar in public opinion. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) had to issue a list of questions to launch an investigation into Tesla. In May, the NHTSA sent another letter asking Tesla to provide detailed information on the operation of Robotaxis in bad weather conditions.
Obviously, Musk wants to start the trial operation of Robotaxis in Texas, where regulations are relatively loose, before the NHTSA's investigation results are released. After all, Tesla's current valuation largely depends on the progress of the Robotaxi project.
A mixed - news is that on June 19th, Texas lawmakers asked Tesla to postpone its planned launch of the Robotaxi service in Austin until September to comply with a new law that is about to take effect. This new bill was passed by the state legislature last month but has not yet been signed by the governor. According to the bill, autonomous driving companies must apply for an operation license from the state government. If the state government deems that driverless cars "endanger the public", it can revoke the license.
Just when it was about to be launched, Tesla was suddenly asked by state lawmakers to postpone the plan. If Musk still wants to launch the Robotaxi service on June 22nd, the company has to provide detailed information to prove that the Robotaxi service in Austin is compliant. Lawmakers only gave Musk three days, and their intention is obvious.
If Musk chooses to comply, he will have to wait for another two months, which is "bad news".
However, if the Robotaxi is not actually ready and Musk just boasted too early, then the lawmakers' request gives him a way out, allowing him more than two months to further improve the Robotaxi. From this perspective, it is "good news".
03
In addition to external pressure, Musk also needs to resolve the internal differences within Tesla.
According to media disclosures, many executives at Tesla do not agree with the strategy of heavily investing in FSD and Robotaxi. If Musk wants to raise funds for a large - scale entry into the AI field, Tesla needs to diversify its vehicle models and participate in the "price war".
"There are many models showing that the returns from FSD and Robotaxi will be slow and uneven. Outside the United States, given the strict regulatory environment or the lack of a regulatory environment, it will be very, very difficult."
Opponents believe that FSD and Robotaxi cannot stimulate consumer spending. According to Musk's vision, if the usage frequency of cars increases and shared cars become more common, the market demand for private cars will significantly decrease, especially in urban areas. From the perspective of boosting sales, product price plays a more important role. After the new - energy subsidies from various governments gradually fade out, consumers pay more attention to cost - effectiveness.
In 2024, Tesla said that it would launch an entry - level Model 2 priced at $25,000 in 2025. There are reports that the product has been tested at the German factory, but Musk has no interest in low - priced models, and the project is basically on hold.
After Musk clearly made the strategic decision to bet on FSD and Robotaxi, executives who held opposing views resigned one after another. Therefore, if the Robotaxi project doesn't go smoothly, Musk can't blame anyone else; it's entirely his own stubborn decision.
Especially when the Robotaxi has become the key to maintaining Tesla's market value, it can't afford to "fail but gain data" like the Starship. So, to some extent, the request from Texas lawmakers gives Musk some time. It depends on whether he will take this opportunity.
In the adult world, expressing oneself and acting without restraint is a luxury. Musk has paid a much higher price than he expected for getting involved in politics. His every move is no longer just a personal act but is considered to have obvious political implications.
This has made Musk controversial not only in the United States but also led to violent acts against Tesla and its stores, resulting in a significant decline in sales. Many countries in Europe and Asia have also kept their distance from Musk because of his remarks and the Trump administration's policies, and some have even directly criticized him.
Being caught in a political whirlpool, Musk has missed many opportunities, and the rewards from Trump have not met his expectations.
In the AI field, which Musk values most, Trump has quietly joined hands with OpenAI. In January, Altman's high - profile launch of the $500 - billion - scale "Stargate" program at the White House was like a direct slap in the face of Musk, clearly showing who the US government really considers the leader in the AI industry.
This has made it more difficult for X AI to tell a good story when raising funds from investors. That is, if X AI is so powerful, why couldn't it dominate the White House's AI program when Musk had the closest relationship with Trump?
Now, after the ups and downs in Musk's relationship with Trump, both SpaceX, which relies on government orders, and X AI, which needs government endorsement, will be re - evaluated by the capital market. Even Tesla, which seems to be market - oriented, is actually closely related to the attitude of regulatory authorities.
Musk has long understood that his business has always relied on official support. That's why he once spent a huge amount of money to support Trump's election campaign. After Trump was elected, he worked hard to help Trump cut federal spending, wore a "Make America Great Again (MAGA)" red cap to show his loyalty, and didn't mind offending countless people.
However, what he didn't expect was that their "friendship" would end so quickly. The spending cuts that Musk worked day and night to achieve were easily reversed by the Big Beautiful Bill. The person he recommended was replaced, and the orders that were almost in hand might be "blown away". After all this effort and spending hundreds of millions of dollars, he has only lost billions in personal wealth and gained nothing.
It's also possible that the request from Texas lawmakers is an attempt to teach Musk a lesson.
The "science madman" and "business genius" seem so naive and helpless in the treacherous political whirlpool.
Many people used to think that in the United States, as long as you have money, you can do anything and even influence politics. This is a ridiculous misunderstanding. Preventing business tycoons from meddling in politics is actually a consensus in Washington. From the broken - up Rockefeller business empire, to Google's founders who chose to stay out of the limelight in their prime, and more recently, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg, who have "gone to enjoy life", they all understand the unwritten rule that the extremely wealthy should keep a certain distance from politics.
Musk certainly understands this unwritten rule, but he still chose to take a gamble. Since he went all - in, he has to accept the consequences. Now that he is in a difficult situation both at home and abroad, Musk must deal with the consequences of his political stir - up.
This is another "awakening moment" for him.