Die erneut verlängerte Frist nähert sich. Wird TikTok in den USA erneut vom App-Store entfernt?
Text | Lan Jie
Editor | Qiao Qian
With the once - again postponed ban set to take effect soon, what's in store for TikTok?
In a year when TikTok itself was unsure if it would be banned, it chose to fully embrace the "too big to fail" approach. It set more aggressive commercialization goals to further expand its influence and fight against the potential repeat of the ban history.
According to SensorTower data, in May this year, TikTok's monthly active overseas users on mobile devices exceeded 1 billion for the first time. Behind this is TikTok's continuous efforts to expand despite the current uncertainties.
However, Trump, who had given TikTok hope through executive orders several times, made hasty decisions on tariffs, which also affected TikTok's e - commerce business, a key area of its focus.
In a blink of an eye, the 75 - day deadline is approaching again. Previously, when Trump was interviewed by NBC on May 4th, he said that if no sale agreement was reached by June 19th, he might extend the "sell or be banned" deadline for TikTok for the third time. Once again, the platform's fate has reached an uncertain turning point.
TikTok Racing Against Time
"The strategies for large companies expanding into other countries can be 'too big to fail' or 'big but not prominent'. The former means that the company's influence is so great that no one dares to destroy it, while the latter means that the company grows without attracting too much attention," Nie Huihua, a professor at the School of Economics of Renmin University, told 36Kr.
TikTok, with its social nature, clearly took the first path from the start, and it had no other choice.
As TikTok's active user base grew, the platform amassed significant influence among young users. During last year's US presidential election, both former US President Biden, who passed the bill to ban TikTok if it wasn't sold, and current President Trump, who is still pushing for TikTok's sale, tried to win over young voters through TikTok. This was especially true for Trump, whose account was banned on X (formerly Twitter), one of the mainstream US social platforms.
Meanwhile, TikTok Shop, launched in the second half of 2023, has become an important engine driving TikTok's revenue and further development. Despite issues such as unstable traffic, difficulties in adapting live - streaming to the local market, and uncooperative influencers, merchants are still doing brisk business. In just a year and a half, its annual GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) exceeded what TikTok Shop achieved in the UK in four years.
Previously, according to LatePost, TikTok's e - commerce team set a growth target of nearly 100% for 2025. Among them, the US market is expected to have the highest growth, with a target close to 200%.
According to US business media Business Insider, TikTok Shop's business in the US has had a slow start this year, and since the end of March, daily sales have declined, especially the sales contributed by Chinese sellers.
To make matters worse, Trump's tariff measures have once again slowed down the development of TikTok Shop in the US.
The price increase was expected. What surprised Hei Zi, who is engaged in cross - border e - commerce live - streaming operations, was that in April this year, the price increase of fully - managed product categories on TikTok Shop was nearly three times, higher than that of platforms like Amazon and Temu, almost the highest among local e - commerce platforms.
The unexpectedly high prices have made more consumers either wait and see or switch to other e - commerce platforms. This has led to a significant decline in the traffic of Hei Zi's live - streaming room. Previously, he could hire 3 - 4 hosts to sell goods for 12 hours a day, but during the price - increase period, the live - streaming only lasted for four hours a day because few goods were sold, and the labor cost was too high to bear.
There have also been some glitches reported by TikTok employees. In Hei Zi's live - streaming room, there are more and more bugs in the fully - managed product links. One of the most memorable incidents was when the price of a product originally priced at $20 in the link became $0.01. Ironically, that day was also the day with the best data in Hei Zi's live - streaming room after the price increase of fully - managed products, as a large number of consumers who found the loophole came to take advantage of it.
After the tariff adjustment after May Day, the prices of fully - managed products on the platform have also decreased, but they are still higher than before and unstable.
The fully - managed model, which is known for its low prices and fast delivery, is the platform product most affected by tariffs.
For small and medium - sized merchants lacking supply - chain and overseas - warehouse capabilities, the fully - managed model is an important path. During the Black Friday promotion in 2024, the GMV of TikTok Shop's fully - managed model in the US increased by 187% year - on - year, exceeding the overall growth rate of the platform.
In addition to fully - managed products, the prices of semi - managed products on the platform are also rising. Only products from some merchants willing to offer discounts or those already in overseas warehouses have not seen price increases.
For TikTok, which is racing against time, the uncertainty of tariffs is undoubtedly a continuous piece of bad news.
The Ban Remains the Biggest Problem
Will TikTok ultimately be banned or continue to operate?
Professor Nie Huihua predicts that the possibility of a ban is relatively small. TikTok in the US may have to hand over control or equity. "It may cede actual control (similar to ZTE's trusteeship model) but retain most of the shares, so that both sides can save face."
At the beginning of May, Trump also said that if no agreement was reached by June 19th, he would extend the deadline for ByteDance to divest its TikTok assets.
Trump's unpredictability is exacerbating this uncertainty. Professor Nie Huihua said that Trump values "the art of the deal" as a political achievement. "He has no clear principles. Changing orders frequently and applying extreme pressure may be his personality or a negotiation strategy."
There's no turning back now. TikTok, which has already taken root in the US, can only forge ahead.
Therefore, Professor Nie Huihua repeatedly emphasizes to Chinese companies going global that they need to prioritize the relationship between the government and enterprises.
More intriguingly, in May, Kuaishou released its first - quarter financial report for this year. The most attention - grabbing part was the commercialization progress of Keling AI, followed by the fact that the operating profit of Kuaishou's overseas business turned positive for the first time.
Previously, there was much confusion in the industry about Kuaishou's choice of Brazil as an overseas market. Due to its underdeveloped infrastructure, unformed industrial chain, and highly differentiated consumption habits, Brazil was not considered an ideal destination for overseas expansion.
According to sources close to Kuaishou, geopolitical factors were indeed considered when choosing overseas countries.
Meituan's overseas food - delivery service Keeta and the tea - drink brand Mixue Bingcheng have also chosen regions such as Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia for their overseas expansion, either avoiding the more mature US market or diversifying their bets across multiple regions.
Moreover, the policy fluctuations and TikTok's helplessness are also affecting merchants' confidence in the platform. To some extent, the path that merchants are choosing is the opposite of TikTok's pursuit of growth.
Among the merchants interviewed by 36Kr, few are still fully committed to TikTok. How to migrate to other markets and platforms has become a more frequently discussed topic. Some merchants who previously thought Amazon was too competitive and had low profits are now reconsidering returning to the more stable Amazon platform.