Dürfen diese Unternehmen sich nach dem Abfall der Zölle sicher in die USA begeben? | Auslandseinsatz in New Land
Author | Zhang Ziyi
Editor | Yuan Silai
The latest changes in tariffs are undoubtedly great news for the overseas - going industry.
Currently, the United States and China have reached an agreement to temporarily cancel most of the tariffs imposed on each other since April. The United States has agreed to reduce the basic tariffs on most Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.
Of course, no one can predict Trump's next move, but at least everyone can take a breather.
Entrepreneurs in many industries have experienced a month of mixed emotions.
When Trump's 145% tariff took effect, Zhang Xi, the founder of the Ebike company Velotric, was still in the United States. Their company has been targeting this market since its establishment. That day, his wife seemed very anxious. She urged Zhang Xi to return to Shenzhen quickly because she had received more than 20 messages asking if Velotric was going to go bankrupt?
"In the past two years, it was said that if you don't go overseas, you'll be out. Now, even if you go overseas, you might still be out," Zhang Xi sighed at a sharing session of Guangdian Investment later.
Since Chinese hardware companies started going global, their favorite markets have been Europe and the United States. There are too many expensive and novel product categories that can only find a foothold in the mature European and American markets. Ebikes, which are rarely heard of by domestic users, are a representative example. The European and American markets have some similarities, and Chinese hardware companies have long been accustomed to operating skillfully across the Atlantic.
Taking Ebikes as an example, in the past two years, the growth rate of Ebikes in Europe has stagnated or even declined. The United States, with a relatively low penetration rate, has naturally become the next area to explore.
This tariff once disrupted the entire Ebike industry.
At the beginning of this year, the Ebike company Tezhousi shipped two containers of products to the United States, planning to open up the US market. Just when they were about to set prices and start pre - sales, Trump announced a tariff increase. They postponed their sales plan and decided to wait and see the trend of tariff policies and industry developments before deciding on the sales plan.
Even so, Chinese Ebike companies have no option to back down.
The market for Ebikes is very clear: it is the overseas market, specifically developed countries. After all, compared with traditional bicycles, an Ebike is not cheap, with a price range of $200 to $5,000. Only in regions where cycling culture is popular can products like Ebikes thrive. Apart from Europe, only the United States meets this requirement.
In the office of the Ebike startup Urtopia, dozens of Ebikes are always on display. Zhang Bo, the founder, introduced these new models with high enthusiasm. They will be continuously sold to the United States this year.
Urtopia, which used to focus only on the European market, plans to significantly expand its presence in the US market this year and aim to enter the top three in terms of market share. No matter how much the tariffs increase, they will not give up the US market, even if they have to suffer heavy losses in the initial stage.
When the European market shows signs of weakness, the United States is a fallback for Chinese Ebike companies. It has strong consumer power, a standardized business environment, and is not as fragmented as Europe. More importantly, Chinese manufacturers have not yet turned this market into a red - ocean competition.
However, now Chinese Ebike companies have to walk on thin ice. They either continue to fight in the saturated European market or bear the ups and downs of the US market - such fluctuations could quickly bankrupt a startup. Chinese Ebike manufacturers are forced to be involved in the reshuffle before they have fully grown.
On the day when Trump increased the tariffs, Zhang Xi sent a letter to the team, which generally said that for globally - oriented enterprises, this might not be a bad thing. Many product - selling enterprises will be eliminated, and enterprises with brand power will survive...
They have to force themselves to be prepared. Even if there is some room for improvement now, no one dares to truly relax.
01 Abandon the US market?
In April, Guo Dongsheng, the founder of Tezhousi, just returned from Europe. In Hungary, he participated in a new - energy industry event. The focus of the discussion at the event was still tariffs. The atmosphere of optimism and pessimism intertwined at the scene, and the certainty of the European market and the uncertainty of the US market were in sharp contrast.
"We didn't think highly of the US market before. Its current scale is only about $1.5 billion, while the European Ebike market reached around $20 billion in 2022. In the past, the US market seemed really small and not very healthy to us," Zhang Bo told Yingke.
Going to Europe was once the unanimous choice of Chinese Ebike manufacturers.
The cycling culture has been popular in Europe for many years. In many Western European countries, the urban roads were planned with reasonable cycling spaces from the beginning. Cycling is not only a lifestyle but also a daily habit for Europeans.
Europe was once one of the fastest - growing regions in the global Ebike market. From 2016 to 2021, the shipment volume of Ebikes in Europe increased from 1.67 million to 5 million. By 2022, the shipment volume reached 7 million.
Data from the market research institution Data Bridge shows that in 2023, the scale of the European Ebike market was $4.6 billion. In comparison, the scale of the North American (including the United States, Mexico, and Canada) Ebike market was only $3.24 billion in 2023.
"The Ebike market in Germany alone is three times that of the United States. Almost everyone has a bicycle, and the penetration rate is as high as 100%. When we started Urtopia in 2021, our original intention was to choose the best market to create a mid - to high - end brand," Zhang Bo said.
Tezhousi also chose Europe over the United States. "The threshold of the European market is relatively high, and people there have a deeper understanding of cycling culture. If we can establish a global supply chain and brand operation in the European market and carry out local operations, it will be more advantageous to enter the US market later," Guo Dongsheng said.
(Image source/Tezhousi Ebike)
Until 2024, the situation changed, and two Ebike manufacturers both turned to the US market. The reason is simple: the overall economy in Europe started to decline.
Zhang Bo's most obvious perception was that when he visited a customer in Munich last year, he found a lot of firewood piled up in front of the customer's house. "I thought it was for a cozy lifestyle, but it turned out that he cut the wood himself in the mountains to save on heating costs. Oh my god,"
Ebikes, as non - essential consumer goods, are directly related to the economic situation. Since March 2024, Zhang Bo has noticed that almost every month, century - old brands in Europe announce bankruptcy, and many local European Ebike enterprises start to clear their inventories. The market is gradually experiencing an avalanche effect.
Another obvious sign is that last year, he saw many Bosch mid - drive motors priced below 3,000 euros in the retail market. "Bosch doesn't usually lower the price of its motors. The appearance of low - priced motors in the market is because Ebike enterprises on the verge of bankruptcy are clearing their stocks,"
Data also supports this. The latest EU electric bicycle import data released by Eurostat shows that the import volume of Ebikes has dropped to 642,000, a 27% decrease compared with the same period last year, and it has even fallen below the pre - pandemic level in 2019. The import value has decreased even more, with a year - on - year decline of 33%.
Looking at the US market, data from the market research institution Circana shows that from 2019 to 2023, Ebikes contributed 63% of the growth in the US bicycle industry's sales revenue and accounted for 20% of the total market sales revenue in 2023.
While the growth rate is impressive, the US market is also growing rapidly. Statista data shows that the revenue of the US Ebike market is expected to reach $2.17 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.06% from 2025 to 2029.
In Guo Dongsheng's view, after several years of market education and tightened market - related policies, US consumers have a deeper understanding of Ebikes. "Some users, after riding some cheap products and finding that the overall experience is not so good, are now willing to buy higher - quality products,"
Urtopia's experience is more direct: after focusing on the US market, even in the off - season of Q1 this year, its revenue has nearly tripled compared with the past two years.
(Image source/Urtopia)
When there are no more new stories in the European market, no Ebike enterprise is willing to voluntarily abandon the US market.
02 Uncertainty of the cost advantage in the US market
In addition to the market's growth rate, Chinese manufacturers are also turning to the US because the taxes there are relatively lower than in Europe.
Ebike manufacturers accustomed to the European market seem relatively calm about the significant tariff increase in the US this time.
High tariffs are already a common occurrence for them.
The EU has long imposed anti - dumping and counter - vailing duties on Chinese electric bicycles, with tax rates ranging from 9.9% to 70.1%, and this policy has been extended to 2030.
An industry insider in the Ebike field told Yingke that there are three mature strategies to deal with the high tariff costs in the EU. The first is to use the "double - clearance and tax - included" method, where products are declared at a low price when going through customs, and the freight forwarding company handles the details. The second is to enter the EU's white - list enterprise system. Ebikes produced by such enterprises only need to pay about 30% of anti - dumping and counter - vailing duties. The third is to produce overseas. One way is to send all components from China to Europe and only assemble them in European factories, which can avoid import and export declarations. Another way is to source components from both China and Vietnam, complete the final assembly in Vietnam to obtain a certificate of origin, and thus reduce the tariff cost when shipping to the EU.
The above - mentioned insider also believes that none of these three methods is sustainable. The reason why the EU imposes high anti - dumping and counter - vailing duties on China is to protect its domestic enterprises and also hopes that Ebike manufacturers will move the upstream parts of the industrial chain to Europe for production. "At present, it is okay to simply assemble Ebikes in Europe, but if you want to operate in the European market better and more stably in the long run, you really need to consider moving the parts production to Europe,"
At the beginning of this year, the Chinese motor manufacturer Dachuan Motor announced the establishment of a motor production base in Portugal.
"The upstream motor manufacturers setting up factories in Europe is actually to enable downstream complete - vehicle brands to purchase motors locally in the future," an industry insider told Yingke.
In this regard, the EU's purpose of imposing anti - dumping and counter - vailing duties has the same underlying logic as the current US call for "manufacturing reshoring."
(Image source/Urtopia)
Before Trump took office, the US did not have a particularly targeted high - tariff policy for Chinese Ebikes. Usually, normal import tariff rates were applied. This used to be an advantage for Chinese Ebike manufacturers in the US market.
When formulating the pricing strategy for the US market, Tezhousi initially planned to set the vehicle price the same as in Europe but offer significant discounts in the US market.
The biggest advantage of the US market is that there are no EU anti - dumping duties and VAT. These two taxes make the cost of product delivery account for 50% of the European selling price. Therefore, Tezhousi originally planned to price the product at $2,899 in the US and offer large discounts. Coupled with the fact that the delivery cost in the US is nearly $1,000 less than in the EU, they could make a good profit.
However, when the US tariffs skyrocketed, they were almost on par with the EU's anti - dumping duties and VAT, and the promotional activities obviously could not continue.
In Guo Dongsheng's view, the advantage of US tariffs is that they are calculated based on the cost price of the goods, and the overall delivery cost is still slightly lower than in Europe.
Of course, the US tariffs on China are still uncertain. Tezhousi has decided to wait and see if the leading overseas - going enterprises and other Ebike manufacturers have a clear price - increase trend before deciding on the pricing strategy for entering the US market.
03 Low - end Ebikes may be reshuffled
Many industry insiders believe that the US Ebike market is a mixed bag, with fierce low - price competition and involution.
Once the tariffs increase significantly, the most affected may be the large number of mid - and low - end Ebike sellers on Amazon.
An Amazon seller who sells Ebikes in the price range of $499 to $1,500 calculated an account for Yingke: the purchase cost of an Ebike is at least about $1,500 to $1,800. Amazon takes a 15% commission. The logistics cost per vehicle is between $200 and $300. There is also a 10% to 20% promotion cost and return cost. Ebikes in the US need to obtain UL certification, and the certification cost for each SKU starts at $300,000.
"Currently, I hardly make any money from the $499 model. There are even lower - priced products on the market. I really don't know how they make money," the seller told Yingke. After the tariff increase, he will abandon the models with poor profit margins and raise the prices.
In addition to the tariff issue, the US market itself has been tightening the certification requirements for Ebikes. Amazon has strengthened its monitoring of UL certification.
An industry insider in the Ebike field told Yingke that there are many loopholes in the US Ebike market. Some Ebike certifications are obtained from domestic institutions. "You can get a certification report by paying money, and the cost is very low. Some even PS the certification report,"
Actually, before the tariff increase, the threshold of the US market was already rising. An Ebike manufacturer said that at the beginning of the year, many Ebikes on the Amazon platform were being sold at crazy discounts to clear the inventory. It is expected that after a number of Ebike merchants are cleared out, the US market will become more standardized.
Part of Zhang Bo's confidence in the future of the US market comes from the elimination of low - end Ebike players. Players with brand power will have more opportunities in the future. "A wave of large Amazon sellers of (hundred - dollar - level) Ebikes will definitely be cleared out,"
Chinese manufacturers have not been actively involved in the Ebike industry for a long time. The industry only boomed rapidly during the pandemic. The three - electric systems required for Ebikes have directly benefited from the development of China's new - energy vehicle industry. In addition, as China is the world's largest bicycle exporter with